You can calculate the initial thrust at liftoff since you know the initial air pressure and area of the nozzle. Things get more complicated right away, because the pressure drops as water is expelled and the air volume expands, so the thrust begins to drop. The thrust is lifting lighter load as this happens, so the whole system is described by a set of coupled differential equations. The most accurate solution requires computer simulation.
There's a lot you can do without equations; here's one example
http://www.ast.leeds.ac.uk/~knapp/rockets/"
NASA has a complete self-guided course on water rockets that gives you principles, has you answer questions to help you understand, and includes animations along the way.
http://exploration.grc.nasa.gov/education/rocket/BottleRocket/index.htm"
You'll know a lot about operation and design of bottle rockets if you "Start Your Journey" and take courses 101-103.
Do a Google search on "water rocket equations" to find more technical discussions and simulations.
NASA's has a fairly advanced one that includes interactive simulations where you enter parameters for your rocket
http://exploration.grc.nasa.gov/education/rocket/rktbot.html"
and continue through the relevant equations by clicking on "Water Rocket--Next" on the bottom of each page.
Have fun!