Can the International Community Prevent Catastrophe in Libya?

[Greg Bernhardt]

Forces loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi made good on threats to trigger a civil war in Libya on Wednesday night, by taking up positions across the capital, Tripoli and launching a rearguard fight against rebels in major cities.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ks-out-as-Gaddafi-mounts-rearguard-fight.html

 

[nismaratwork]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ks-out-as-Gaddafi-mounts-rearguard-fight.html

He's willing to bomb his oil-fields... clearly nothing is beyond him. We'd better hope that we got all of his Bio-Chem weapons.

 

[Newai]

Need we say more?

[PLAIN]http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/7690/besttuesdays3.jpg

 

[rootX]

I vaguely remember this - "In 2008, Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi invited 200 kings and traditional rulers from sub-Saharan, mainly non-Arab Africa to witness his crowning of as the continent's "King of Kings." I seem to remember that many leaders ignored the invitation.

From: Muammar Gaddafi's Delusions of African Grandeur
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599205316400

His departure is long overdue.

Everyone seems obsessed with overthrowing Gadhafi but what about the Libya's future and its people? Will they be better off (with respect to Libya's economy and social reforms) without Gadhafi? I have yet to see a convincing case of the likelihood of Libya improving without him. However, no one seems to be concerned about the future.Meanwhile, Italy fears that up to 300,000 Libyans could try to reach Italian soil as a result of the chaos in the North African country.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...343963/Libya-Italy-fears-300000-refugees.html

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Need we say more?

[PLAIN]http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/7690/besttuesdays3.jpg[/QUOTE]

is he wearing a cape with hammer pants?

 

[Newai]

That's funny. Debbie Schlussel, an attorney, commentator, and blogger, calls him "Muammar “MC Hammer” Qaddafi."

 

[lisab]

That's funny. Debbie Schlussel, an attorney, commentator, and blogger, calls him "Muammar “MC Hammer” Qaddafi."

"MQ Hammer"

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Libyan east hails "freedom"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/24/us-libya-protests-idUSTRE71G0A620110224

Libyan opposition reportedly seizes key western city
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-0224-libya-mideast-protests-20110224,0,431198.story

 

[Newai]

"MQ Hammer"

Please Muhammer, don't hurt 'em!

 

[russ_watters]

Well... it seems Ghaddafi (who I will now refer to as, "that son of goats") ordered ANOTHER bombing of Benghazi, and the pilot/crew punched out and crashed their jet(s?) into the desert.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/2...otests-libyas-interior-minister-quits/?hpt=T1

That's pretty hard-core: Before you even get to worry about Ghaddafi's minions finding you and killing you slowly, you have to wonder about the reliability of your 50-year-old ejection seat and the likelihood of injury even if it does work right!

 

[russ_watters]

Everyone seems obsessed with overthrowing Gadhafi but what about the Libya's future and its people? Will they be better off (with respect to Libya's economy and social reforms) without Gadhafi?

Ultimately, I guess they decided that the complete unknown of what comes after, with hope for an improvement, makes it worthwhile to try to overthrow him. Of course it's a gamble, but the gamble must be worthwhile enough that not only are they willing to risk their future, but they are willing to risk their very lives right now.

I have yet to see a convincing case of the likelihood of Libya improving without him.

Convincing? Have you seen any case, convincing or otherwise?

However, no one seems to be concerned about the future.

Nothing could be further from the truth. The whole point of a revolution - any revolution - is to attempt to make the future better.

 

[rootX]

Convincing? Have you seen any case, convincing or otherwise?

I am convinced that
1) current government is the better for Libya

From the article I posted yesterday (http://www.iai.it/pdf/mediterraneo/GMF-IAI/Mediterranean-paper_08.pdf ), it seems like Gaddafi's son is the best person to lead the country. He is educated from west and hods a Phd in economics. He is also very passionate about modernizing Libya while not so in getting the seat of his father.

2) there is very less likelihood that getting rid of Gaddafi would make Libya a better place.

Knowing that Libya has many different tribes, I believe there will long term instability if Gaddafi is ousted. These tribes look not so eager about modernization and there are differences among them.I have not seen anything in the media discussing Libya's future without Gaddafi which makes me wonder if there's any bright future.

 

[russ_watters]

I am convinced that
1) current government is the better for Libya

Better than what? In order to make that determination, you have to predict with some veracity what form of government they will have in the future and what level of development it will lead to. How can you possibly know this?

From the article I posted yesterday (http://www.iai.it/pdf/mediterraneo/GMF-IAI/Mediterranean-paper_08.pdf ), it seems like Gaddafi's son is the best person to lead the country.

How can an article that doesn't discuss the alternative that is being pursued tell you that that alternative is inferior to another path?

It doesn't appear to me that you have much regard for freedom. Have you considered the possibility that Libyans consider freedom itself to be an improvement in their condition worth accepting a lower economic and stability condition?

 

[rootX]

Better than what? In order to make that determination, you have to predict with some veracity what form of government they will have in the future and what level of development it will lead to. How can you possibly know this? How can an article that doesn't discuss the alternative that is being pursued tell you that that alternative is inferior to another path?

I have two points not just one. The article provides a slight hope and mentioned the Gaddafi's son is eager to bring reforms. The articles does not consider alternatives. I evaluated alternative in my point 2.

It doesn't appear to me that you have much regard for freedom. Have you considered the possibility that Libyans consider freedom itself to be an improvement in their condition worth accepting a lower economic and stability condition?

I value stability, economic growth, and social reforms (e.g. literacy, health care) more than freedom.

 

[russ_watters]

I have two points not just one. The article provides a slight hope and mentioned the Gaddafi's son is eager to bring reforms. The articles does not consider alternatives. I evaluated alternative in my point 2.

Ok, fair enough.

I value stability, economic growth, and social reforms (e.g. literacy, health care) more than freedom.

Fair enough. Setting aside that their priorities/criteria for defining "better" might be different than yours, have you considered the possibility that freedom can lead to those other things?

 

[rootX]

Fair enough. Setting aside that their priorities/criteria for defining "better" might be different than yours, have you considered the possibility that freedom can lead to those other things?

That's where we need an expert's opinion.

Questions like following are quite difficult to answer and media is not focusing on them:
If ousting Gaddafi will lead to a free Libya?,
If freedom can lead to stability, social and economic reforms in Libya?,
How long it will take to have positive outcomes?

 

[nismaratwork]

That's pretty hard-core: Before you even get to worry about Ghaddafi's minions finding you and killing you slowly, you have to wonder about the reliability of your 50-year-old ejection seat and the likelihood of injury even if it does work right!

Agreed... Someone has a sore (compressed spine) back. Still, it's one hell of a statement to make!

@rootX: It doesn't matter anymore; Qaddafi's central power is broken, and that won't be coming back. He seems driven to start a civil war, and is making decent inroads in that direction. This is what happens when autocrats are used as corks to stopper the vestiges of European colonialism.

This isn't about a free Libya, it's about an oscillation back from an unnatural and unsustainable state.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I am convinced that
1) current government is the better for Libya

Are there more than two people on this planet who are convinced??

 

[DevilsAvocado]

If ousting Gaddafi will lead to a free Libya?

How could it be worse than current Hitler-madness?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

"Muammar “MC Hammer” Qaddafi."

"MQ Hammer"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8flIbqvQ7Eo

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Libya's resigned Minister of Justice Mustafa Mohamed Abud Al Jeleil has proof that http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sv&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.expressen.se%2Fnyheter%2F1.2341759%2Fkassem-hamade-om-motet-med-exministern%3FstandAlone%3Dtrue%26textStrl%3D1".

The former Minister of Justice also said he believed Mr. Gaddafi’s days were numbered:

– Mr. Gaddafi's days are numbered. He will do what Hitler did - he will kill himself.​

This is also consistent with what I heard a professor of psychology saying. Gaddafi has a severe narcissistic personality disorder and megalomania, and when this 'glorious picture' starts to crackle – he can’t handle it... Auf wienerschnitzel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhQkhJnfnGI

 

[cobalt124]

Can't find a link but I seem to remember reading years ago that Gadaffi received psychiatric help in Egypt. Anyone know anything about this?

 

[mugaliens]

This is also consistent with what I heard a professor of psychology saying. Gaddafi has a severe narcissistic personality disorder and megalomania...

Have you ever heard of a dictator who didn't?

 

[nismaratwork]

How could it be worse than current Hitler-madness?

Hitler would be worse... definitely... Qaddafi really is much more like Mussolini... may he find as pleasant a death as that man.

 

[nismaratwork]

Have you ever heard of a dictator who didn't?

I'd say Mubarak, the Saudi royal family, Jordan's family, etc. The Idi Amin/Qaddafi's are rarer than you'd think; they tend to self-destruct.

There are interesting theories about Qadaffi being a psychopath, but that his behaviour and speech changed after the bombing of Al-Aziziyah. You can be meglomaniacal and narcissistic, without being a Meglomaniac or a Narcissist... to truly have those personality disorder from youth and through 42 yearrs of rule is... interesting.

Remember, it makes him determined, but it also means his view of reality is fundamentally skewed; such people often rely on cronies for some stability.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I'd say Mubarak, the Saudi royal family, Jordan's family, etc. The Idi Amin/Qaddafi's are rarer than you'd think; they tend to self-destruct.

Agree, thanks nismar. There’s always "varying degrees of hell".

 

[nismaratwork]

Agree, thanks nismar. There’s always "varying degrees of hell".

I live to serve.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

he looks a bit like will ferrell in this video lol
http://cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2011/02/23/mann.gadhafi.reflection.cnn

 

[lisab]

he looks a bit like will ferrell in this video lol
http://cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2011/02/23/mann.gadhafi.reflection.cnn

He seems drugged.

 

[Proton Soup]

i'm totally down with the female bodyguard thing