Coming Pandemonium: Peak Oil & its Consequences

[corra]

Within 2-10 years all these things will have happened to this planet.

1: Crash of the american dollar.
2: Worldwide recession.
3: Famine and disease catastrophes in 3 world countries.
4: Rescource wars in the middle east to secure oil rights.
5: Israel going into Iran backed by the U.S (under the exuse of the nuclear programme)
6: Suburbian ghost towns will crop up all over the United States as people move back into cities or out to towns and villages.
7: Indentured servants will be brought back in the us due to the large amounts of people not being able to pay their mortgages when recession hits. (new law passed recently allowing this)
8: The end of the green revolution.
9: Massive increase in CO2 pollution due to increase in coal plants.
10: Un-employment sky rocketing in the U.S where 15% of all jobs directly and indirectly cater to the automobile industry.

All this WILL happen and for 1 reason. Peak oil.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Has all you need to know about peak oil and if you read the paper you will be shocked, depressed and enlightened all at once.
It is a must read if you have not heard about Peak oil before.

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php?cat=30
Daily updates about news covering the oil crisis.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/07/09/oilshortage070709.html#skip300x250
July 9th report that admits that the signs will be clear very soon.

 

[Cyrus]

Or, we could build a bunch of nuclear power plants...

 

[G01]

Or, we could build a bunch of nuclear power plants...

Exactly. I really think it will be easier to build nuclear plants than to go to war with the rest of the world. Why would we go to war over the rest of the leftover oil if we have a way of making energy that is cheaper than war. There are other sources of power out there man. The only reason we are not using them is because we have oil. We continue to use it because it is there and we're used to using it. Personally, I want oil to peak. It will mean a new form of energy will have to be used and we can finally move on as a society. There will probably be a little trouble, but nothing like what you're talking about.

 

[Kurdt]

Within the next 2-10 years not nearly enough people that latch onto the proclaimations of anyone minus critical thinking will die to save the human race from destruction through its own ignorance.

While I acknowledge the problems that are going to be realized when oil and natural gas run out, I don't for a moment think that the human race is so inflexible that all of these will come true.

 

[hypatia]

Number 3 on your list has been happening on and off for centuries
#4, has been going on for decades now, and for water rights, centuries.
#6 My city {Detroit} couldn't house the people of the burbs.
# 7 is just too outragious to comment on.
#10 My area has been laying off/buying out auto related employees, for over 20 years. The unemployment here is already one of the highest in the nation. Most states are unlike Michigan, in the fact that they are not so dependent on autos.

I also give us more credit, that your Mad Max predictions will not come true.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

We are all going to die! There is no doubt about it.

These are the best of times, and the worst of times, which is nothing new.

 

[G01]

We are all going to die! There is no doubt about it.

WHAT! No one told me! I feel so betrayed. I had all these plans lined up for my days as an immortal.

 

[Smurf]

half of those already happened...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Within 2-10 years all these things will have happened to this planet.

1: Crash of the american dollar.
2: Worldwide recession.
3: Famine and disease catastrophes in 3 world countries.
4: Rescource wars in the middle east to secure oil rights.
5: Israel going into Iran backed by the U.S (under the exuse of the nuclear programme)
6: Suburbian ghost towns will crop up all over the United States as people move back into cities or out to towns and villages.
7: Indentured servants will be brought back in the us due to the large amounts of people not being able to pay their mortgages when recession hits. (new law passed recently allowing this)
8: The end of the green revolution.
9: Massive increase in CO2 pollution due to increase in coal plants.
10: Un-employment sky rocketing in the U.S where 15% of all jobs directly and indirectly cater to the automobile industry.

All this WILL happen and for 1 reason. Peak oil.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Has all you need to know about peak oil and if you read the paper you will be shocked, depressed and enlightened all at once.
It is a must read if you have not heard about Peak oil before.

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php?cat=30
Daily updates about news covering the oil crisis.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/07/09/oilshortage070709.html#skip300x250
July 9th report that admits that the signs will be clear very soon.

You would probably get a lot more traction if you discussed your concerns without making predictions as if they were written in stone.

 

[wolram]

Exactly. I really think it will be easier to build nuclear plants than to go to war with the rest of the world. Why would we go to war over the rest of the leftover oil if we have a way of making energy that is cheaper than war. There are other sources of power out there man. The only reason we are not using them is because we have oil. We continue to use it because it is there and we're used to using it. Personally, I want oil to peak. It will mean a new form of energy will have to be used and we can finally move on as a society. There will probably be a little trouble, but nothing like what you're talking about.

Nuclear plants do not provide the raw material we need from oil.

 

[russ_watters]

What fraction of our oil is used to make plastics and other manufactured goods? Is that really a significant issue?

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

You left out second hand smoke.

 

[Chi Meson]

Nuclear plants do not provide the raw material we need from oil.

True, but the oil supply does not "snap shut" after peak. Even if we hit peak today, the "second half" of the oil supply is still to be brought out of the ground (and even the "third half" which is believed to be unretrievable). The first half was the easy, cheap half. The second half will be controlled by a few huge corporations that do not want to go bankrupt. The energy supply already is carefully portioned, rationed, and deliberately squeezed to maximize current and future profits. These oil companies know exactly what they are doing (This is probably why Haliburton inserted an operator into the White House; the Iraq oil fields are an important part of the remaining supply. "Go **** yourself!")

Simple economics will force us to change our lifestyles for expensive oil, just as our lifestyles have been changed by cheap oil.

"All this WILL happen." No one, NO one can seem to predict next year correctly. Who among us can predict the next ten years?

 

[corra]

nuclear power taking over as the main power delivery system would burn through our remaining uranium in 20 years, not to mention that to replace oil we would need 10.000 of the biggest possible nuclear plants.

It does not require much to create chaos. during the seventies there was a drop in oil production of 5% it created recessions and petrol lines at the gas stations that were miles long and rationing of fuel.
imagine what will happen when the drop is 10%... 20%...30%...
it will happen and there is nothing we can do to prevent it.

only thing we can do is find alternatives and we do not have the time, we waited to long and peak oil is here now.

 

[ice109]

show me this law that was passed that allows indentured servitude, btw pandemonium literally means all-demon; it's a perversion of pantheon. so unless you mean demons are going to come out of the ground i don't think you mean pandemonium

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Will this help?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

 

[Kurdt]

only thing we can do is find alternatives and we do not have the time, we waited to long and peak oil is here now.

There are loads of alternatives. Its is even possible now for a home in the UK to be energy self sufficient using existing photovoltaic cell technology. The only reason homes are not self sufficient is because it would be bad for business and thus government revenue to allow everybody to be energy self sufficient, so the price of converting remains high.

 

[corra]

http://bankruptcy.findlaw.com/new-bankruptcy-law/
it passed in 2005 and was aproved by bush.

basically it means the landlord can kick you out and to pay off your debts you become property of whatever company bought your debt.
That company will keep you as an employee until your debt has been paid through work.

besides Pandemonium will prove a proper description of the coming years.

 

[ice109]

http://bankruptcy.findlaw.com/new-bankruptcy-law/
it passed in 2005 and was aproved by bush.

basically it means the landlord can kick you out and to pay off your debts you become property of whatever company bought your debt.
That company will keep you as an employee until your debt has been paid through work.

besides Pandemonium will prove a proper description of the coming years.

it doesn't mention anything like that on any site about the reformed bankruptcy law

 

[Cyrus]

show me this law that was passed that allows indentured servitude, btw pandemonium literally means all-demon; it's a perversion of pantheon. so unless you mean demons are going to come out of the ground i don't think you mean pandemonium

I think you are using the word in the wrong context. I've noticed you take a lot of what people say way too literally sometimes. You don't have Aspergers or something, do you? Sometimes I feel like you don't get the context of the discussion (No offense).

3not capitalized : a wild uproar :

http://mw1.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pandemonium
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/pandemonium

There is more than one meaning of the word, as I am sure you are aware.

 

[ice109]

I think you are using the word in the wrong context. I've noticed you take a lot of what people say way too literally sometimes. You don't have Aspergers or something, do you? Sometimes I feel like you don't get the context of the discussion (No offense).



http://mw1.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pandemonium
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/pandemonium

There is more than one meaning of the word, as I am sure you are aware.

it was a joke dude. relax. the meat of the post was show me the law not the btw. And yes outside of General Discussion i use language very formally, as it should be used when discussing erudite things.

 

[Cyrus]

I know that, I am not trying to chew you out. I just noticed you take words very literally sometimes. What I am trying to say is that you should relax.

 

[Evo]

I think cora meant demons will be coming out of the ground, it would be in line with the other predictions.

 

[ice109]

i still want to see the indentured servant clause in the bankruptcy law

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

i still want to see the indentured servant clause in the bankruptcy law

I think the law has been changed recently to make it harder for an individual to file for bankruptcy. If you owe money and can't pay, and can't file for bankruptcy either, then you spend the rest of your life in debt to your creditors. It is a little like indentured servitude. However, I do not know what you would have to do to get yourself into such a situation. There is still chapter 7 and chapter 13 bankruptcy on the books. Corra, do you know the exact conditions under which an individual would not be able to declare bankruptcy? Is there a threshold above which creditors would have access to your money?

 

[ice109]

I think the law has been changed recently to make it harder for an individual to file for bankruptcy. If you owe money and can't pay, and can't file for bankruptcy either, then you spend the rest of your life in debt to your creditors. It is a little like indentured servitude. However, I do not know what you would have to do to get yourself into such a situation. There is still chapter 7 and chapter 13 bankruptcy on the books. Corra, do you know the exact conditions under which an individual would not be able to declare bankruptcy? Is there a threshold above which creditors would have access to your money?

peruse his link. the new laws make it harder for you to file chapter 7 instead of chapter 13. under chapter 7 you didn't and don't really repay anything, they take some of your stuff that can be liquidated and that's it. under chapter 13 they do that and you have to make payments for 5 years. neither of which is indentured servitude.

 

[mgb_phys]

I think cora meant demons will be coming out of the ground, it would be in line with the other predictions.

Problem solved - we just turn the demons into oil, "put an imp in your tank".

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

you have to make payments for 5 years.

Have to? What if you don't?

 

[Evo]

Have to? What if you don't?

If your situation changes to where you can no longer meet the previously scheduled payments, you would go back to court to prove the change in your financial situation and a new ruling.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

If your situation changes to where you can no longer meet the previously scheduled payments, you would go back to court to prove the change in your financial situation and a new ruling.

Thanks Evo. So corra's list is down to nine. I hope I speak for you and everyone else on this thread when I express my guarded optimism at this glimmer of hope. Unfortunately, I have an item of my own to add. Due to the recent massive leak at the nuclear reactor in Japan (it seems that preliminary reports of 60,000,000,000,000,000,000 femtobequerels may have been grossly underestimated by 5,000 basis points.) This is way above the Godzilla threshold. If the last three installments of the franchise are to be believed, this means that the monster will be treating passengers on the Yamanote line like so much kaiten sushi within days. With Tokyo devastated, Osaka will emerge as a world power. Within weeks we'll all be speaking Japanese with a Hanshin accent. The dollar will fall, the yen will rise and the bolivar will move sideways. We may not live long enough to suffer from the other items.

Corra, never bet on disaster. You can't collect.

 

[Chi Meson]

...60,000,000,000,000,000,000 femtobequerels...

that's only 60 kilobequerels

 

[G01]

nuclear power taking over as the main power delivery system would burn through our remaining uranium in 20 years

I assume you have a reputable source for this information...i.e. not the sites you posted. I want a source that doesn't state future predictions as facts. I find these numbers hard to believe.

Problem solved - we just turn the demons into oil, "put an imp in your tank".

I can't wait to get my Beelzebubmobile!

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

that's only 60 kilobequerels

Only he says. That's 60,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 attobequerels my friend! And that's each and every hour of the day, day and night.

 

[Chi Meson]

Only he says. That's 60,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 attobequerels my friend! And that's each and every hour of the day, day and night.

About one-half of one percent of an Mbq. Laughable!

 

[glondor]

In North America, In todays environment I bet it would take at least 15 years to build a nuclear reactor if you started the process tomorrow. Perhaps if there had not been such incredible resistance to nuclear power in the 70's and 80's there would be many less coal fires plants burning up our lungs and planet...Just an observation. If Atomic power is the way to relieve some of the load ..It will not happen tomorrow.

 

[hypatia]

Solar energy (commercial, solar thermal conversion, photovoltaic cells), wind power, tidal power, ocean thermal conversion, biomass, geothermal energy, conversion of coal into gas, extraction of oil from tar sands and efforts at tertiary recovery from oil deposits
We're not going to run out of uranium any time soon, even on a bad year they mine between 42 and 46 tonnes world wide.
Gas rationing has occurred several times in USA history{1940's and 1970's}, people adapted and survived. MY Granny recalls getting together with friends and putting all there gas stamps together so all of them could take a driveing vacation. And while gas lines in the 70's sometimes went for a block or two, your statement of "miles" is way out of line. I did buy a very small car, and didnt drive as much as I wanted to.
We have been being preped to think about hybred/ other fule source cars for years now. Its not as big of shock as you may think.

 

[corra]

gonna take a moment to answer kurdt's reply here.
Every house can't be self sufficient.

take solar power for instance. from the 60's until today we have built on a worldwide scale aprox 10 square kilometres of solar panels.
to replace oil for housing power alone we would need 250.000+ square kilometres of solar panels. food for thought.

 

[Kurdt]

Because the demand for soalr panels is very low. It doesn't mean that we can only produce solar panels at that rate. And where are you getting these numbers from?

 

[corra]

there is not enough factories to make solar panels on a big level, also there is not enough demand to justify making more factories.
when peak oil hits it will take a long time to get the factories up and running to supply the solar panels. not to mention the raw materials needed which is already in short supply.

The source i have this info from is matthew simmons.
If you do not know who he is i suggest you watch the "Crude awakening" documentary covering peak oil and its consequenses.

 

[wolram]

What fraction of our oil is used to make plastics and other manufactured goods? Is that really a significant issue?

http://www.3k88.com/products.htm

This is a list of some of the products made from oil. Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems dependent on oil, and transported by oil as either gas or diesel fuel.



Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fertilizer, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn

 

[wolram]

Why America needs vast amounts of oil.

http://www.fccdr.usf.edu/upload/projects/tlushtml/tlus60.htm

The car was once a symbol of freedom that gave the individual citizen command over time and space and a degree of mobility hitherto unattained. It is now increasingly seen as a major source of congestion and pollution, accused of reducing the attractiveness and efficiency of the city itself, and generating a long list of economic, social, and environmental costs. 12

In the US, the automobile has reached its zenith, inducing sprawled and inefficient land use patterns, which force people to travel longer distances to meet daily needs. Land use changes and under-investment have reduced public transportation, once the main force guiding metropolitan development, to a meager 3% of all trips. Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) are growing nationwide at 2.5% and in many metropolitan areas by more than 4% annually, leading to severe traffic congestion, as road-building has not been able to keep pace due to both space and fiscal limitations. The US now accounts for one-fourth of total global carbon emissions, and these are growing at more than 4% a year, with 30% of the contribution from the transportation sector. Nearly 70% of the massive US trade deficit is now accounted for by imports of petroleum and motor vehicles. 13

 

[russ_watters]

This is a list of some of the products made from oil...

I am aware of what we make from oil. My question was what fraction of our oil consumption is that?

 

[wolram]

I am aware of what we make from oil. My question was what fraction of our oil consumption is that?

Does it matter, if you do not have it you can not make these things from it.

 

[wolram]

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/09/oil_shale_retor.html

A number of observers have been pointing to oil shale as the solution to all our energy problems. If oil shale does turn out to be the resource of the future, then our problems are only beginning.

 

[Kurdt]

there is not enough factories to make solar panels on a big level, also there is not enough demand to justify making more factories.
when peak oil hits it will take a long time to get the factories up and running to supply the solar panels. not to mention the raw materials needed which is already in short supply.

The source i have this info from is matthew simmons.
If you do not know who he is i suggest you watch the "Crude awakening" documentary covering peak oil and its consequenses.

You're assuming that solar panels are the only solution. They are not and I never claimed they were. Of course there will be problems when the worlds fossil fuels run out, but I think if we're a little more optimistic about the future then these problems will not be so bad. That is all I was trying to say.

 

[russ_watters]

nuclear power taking over as the main power delivery system would burn through our remaining uranium in 20 years...

I've heard that figure before and it is simply a lie spread by radical environmentalists (I can't remember where it came from - perhaps Greenpeace). They choose simply wrong assumptions for every part of their calculation. Real nuclear engineers predict we could go for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years using current technologies and reasonable projected growth in energy needs.

In summary, the actual recoverable uranium supply is likely to be enough to last several hundred (up to 1000) years, even using standard reactors. With breeders, it is essentially infinite. Hundreds of thousands of years is certainly enough time to develop fusion power, or renewable sources that can meet all our power needs.

—James Hopf
Nuclear Engineer

http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/uranium.html

not to mention that to replace oil we would need 10.000 of the biggest possible nuclear plants.

Well, no, by my calculations 10,000 nuclear plants would roughly equal the world's current energy usage from all sources (447 quadrillion btu in 2004). Somewhere around half of that is oil and assuming the peak oil prediction is right, we would have several decades to bulid them as oil production falls.

The tough part is replacing oil use in transportation.

Personally, I'm still more concerned about coal-fired power plants than I am about peak oil.

 

[russ_watters]

Does it matter, if you do not have it you can not make these things from it.

Yeah, it does matter because oil is not going to simply disappear. That's not even what "peak oil" is about.

 

[wolram]

Yeah, it does matter because oil is not going to simply disappear. That's not even what "peak oil" is about.

It may not disappear but, if your country is not producing it how do you know
you can get it.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

What fraction of our oil is used to make plastics and other manufactured goods? Is that really a significant issue?

Does this help? If the following is correct, then the answer is around 10% or less depending upon how that 10% is split out.

Fuel products account for nearly 9 out of every 10 barrels of petroleum used in the United States.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/petroleumproducts.html"

 

[wolram]

China and America the final energy war.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html

Unrestricted War: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America is a treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People’s Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes “The Final War over Resources”, must be won.

The Colonels state that the aggressor nation “must adjust its own financial strategy, use currency revaluation or devaluation as primary weapons, and combine means such as getting the upper hand in public opinion and changing the rules sufficiently to make financial turbulence and economic crisis appear in the targeted country or area, weakening its overall power, including its military strength. Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency bandwidths understood by the American military..."