Conditional Probabilities problem

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SUMMARY

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability that a reader reads exactly two out of three magazines (A, B, and C) based on survey data. The provided probabilities include P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(C) = 0.5, P(A ∩ B) = 0.3, P(B ∩ C) = 0.2, P(A ∩ C) = 0.3, and P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.1. The correct approach involves using conditional probability and Venn diagrams to visualize the overlaps. The final probability for readers who read exactly two magazines is confirmed to be 0.5.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of conditional probability, specifically P(R|Q) = P(Q ∩ R) / P(Q).
  • Familiarity with Venn diagrams for visualizing set overlaps.
  • Basic knowledge of probability theory and events.
  • Ability to interpret survey data and probabilities.
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the application of conditional probability in real-world scenarios.
  • Learn how to construct and interpret Venn diagrams for probability problems.
  • Explore advanced topics in probability theory, such as joint and marginal probabilities.
  • Practice solving problems involving multiple events and their intersections.
USEFUL FOR

Students studying probability theory, educators teaching statistics, and anyone interested in applying conditional probabilities to real-world data analysis.

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1. Homework Statement ******* SOLVED *********

There are three magazines A,B and C respectively. A survey of readers was taken and the following data was collected.

0.6 Read A
0.5 Read B
0.5 Read C
0.3 Read A&B
0.2 Read B&C
0.3 Read A&C
0.1 Read A&B&C

What is the probability that a reader reads two magazines exactly?

Homework Equations



P(R|Q) = P(Q n R) / P(Q) = probability of R given Q. where R,Q are events.

The Attempt at a Solution



I attempted this by just using logic. I thought that readers who read A&B,B&C,A&C but not all three magazines would be the solution: giving a probability of 0.5 which I believe is correct.

I assume conditional probability is meant to be used in the solution but I am unable to see how the sums fit. Any help would be much appreciated.
 
Last edited:
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It is easy to solve by the Venn diagram.

ehild
 
thanks ehild, that's pretty much how I did it. I thought there was more to it, I was looking for unicorns and finding donkeys.
Cheers,
a.
 

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