Connection between Freezing Europe and the BP spill

[Andrew Mason]

The unusually cold weather in Europe must be related to the gulf stream which gives Europe its normally balmy temperatures as far north as the Arctic Circle in Norway.

It was noticed this summer that the gulf stream had slowed down to almost a stop. Some scientists attributed this to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

I have not been able to find an explanation connecting the BP spill to the drop in flow in the gulf stream. What is the mechanism connecting the two?

AM

 

[Evo]

Hi Andrew, I'm afraid those links are not appropriate sources, so were removed. I will see what I can come up with. IIRC, the BP spill had nothing to do with the current, it was the current that prevented the spill from moving out of the gulf.

Here are three from NOAA. They stopped tracking the trajectory in August after it was found that the spill did not enter the North Atlantic conveyor belt.

http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/topic_subtopic_entry.php?RECORD_KEY%28entry_subtopic_topic%29=entry_id,subtopic_id,topic_id&entry_id(entry_subtopic_topic)=830&subtopic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)=2&topic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)=1

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:J14MiIXzWiwJ:response.restoration.noaa.gov/topic_subtopic_entry.php%3FRECORD_KEY(entry_subtopic_topic)%3Dentry_id,subtopic_id,topic_id%26entry_id(entry_subtopic_topic)%3D809%26subtopic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)%3D2%26topic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)%3D1+gulf+loop+oil+spill+noaa+august+2010&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/altimetry.php

 

[Xnn]

Freezing weather in Europe?

For starters the Arctic Oscillation is offscale low and has been for a while:

Notice that NOAA needs to redraw the scale on this index; it's that low.

Anyhow, the extreme AO may be caused by a lack of sea ice,
which also happens to currently be at record low levels:

 

[Andrew Mason]

Hi Andrew, I'm afraid those links are not appropriate sources, so were removed. I will see what I can come up with. IIRC, the BP spill had nothing to do with the current, it was the current that prevented the spill from moving out of the gulf.

Here are three from NOAA. They stopped tracking the trajectory in August after it was found that the spill did not enter the North Atlantic conveyor belt.

http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/topic_subtopic_entry.php?RECORD_KEY%28entry_subtopic_topic%29=entry_id,subtopic_id,topic_id&entry_id(entry_subtopic_topic)=830&subtopic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)=2&topic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)=1

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:J14MiIXzWiwJ:response.restoration.noaa.gov/topic_subtopic_entry.php%3FRECORD_KEY(entry_subtopic_topic)%3Dentry_id,subtopic_id,topic_id%26entry_id(entry_subtopic_topic)%3D809%26subtopic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)%3D2%26topic_id(entry_subtopic_topic)%3D1+gulf+loop+oil+spill+noaa+august+2010&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/altimetry.php

No one is suggesting that the oil left the Gulf. It is suggested that the spill stopped the flow of the Gulf Stream. That warm water from the Gulf keeps Europe warm. Here is a better link to a letter published by http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf who warned of the disruption to the Gulf Stream. He does not suggest the mechanism by which spilled oil stops the Gulf Stream flow. I was just wondering if anyone could explain why the spill would affect the ocean current.

AM

 

[Borek]

I can't speak for other parts of Europe, but what I see here is not different from what I remember as a standard winter back in sixties, seventies and early eigthies. It was nineties and last decade that spoiled us into thinking winter is not what it is.

In short - I don't see anything unusual about the winter in Poland this year.

 

[Studiot]

I can't speak for other parts of Europe, but what I see here is not different from what I remember as a standard winter back in sixties, seventies and early eigthies. It was nineties and last decade that spoiled us into thinking winter is not what it is.

In short - I don't see anything unusual about the winter in Poland this year.

Absolutely.

There is far too much rubbish, based upon inappropriate timescales, promulgated.

When we don't know or don't yet have enough information we should have the guts to say so rather than guessing.

 

[billiards]

Speculative at best.

Consider how long it would take a disturbance in the Gulf to reach Northern Europe.

They are about 6,000 km apart, the blast happened about 6 months ago, so we are asking that the disturbance traveled 1000 km a month. Is that plausible? I doubt it.

See xnn's post for a better explanation of the recent cold snap.

 

[Andrew Mason]

Absolutely.

There is far too much rubbish, based upon inappropriate timescales, promulgated.

When we don't know or don't yet have enough information we should have the guts to say so rather than guessing.

So are you saying that the cold winter in Europe is not related to the stoppage in the Gulf Stream flow? Or are you saying that the Gulf Stream flow has not stopped? Are the satellite data showing that the Gulf Stream changed dramatically between April and July of this year false or being misinterpreted? Where is the rubbish in the simple observation that the Gulf Stream changed significantly this year?

It seems to me that it does not matter whether the winter in Europe is colder than it has ever been. There have likely been other winters that were colder. But unquestionably, Europe's weather is related to the Gulf Stream. One look at the palm trees in Penzance will tell you that. The Gulf Stream affects the Jet Stream, so it can have an effect around the world. All I am interested in is this: "how does an oil spill in the Gulf affect the Gulf current?".

[Note: the BP spill dumped 4.4 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf (700 billion litres or 700 million cubic metres or .9 of a cubic kilometres). The Gulf of Mexico contains about 2.4 million cubic kilometres of water.]

AM

 

[Andrew Mason]

Speculative at best.

Consider how long it would take a disturbance in the Gulf to reach Northern Europe.

They are about 6,000 km apart, the blast happened about 6 months ago, so we are asking that the disturbance traveled 1000 km a month. Is that plausible? I doubt it.

See xnn's post for a better explanation of the recent cold snap.

The Gulf Stream is a 50 mile wide river of warm water traveling across the North Atlantic at a speed of about 4 miles an hour. The disturbance is the stoppage of the Gulf loop current, which is the engine that drives that flow, apparently. The disturbance does not travel at all. The effect of the disturbance, however, would propagate across the Atlantic immediately. Without the engine of the Gulf loop current, the flow peters out in the mid-Altantic. Apparently the loop current has disappeared. The suggestion is that it is due to the BP spill. I am just having difficulty understanding how the two might be connected.

AM

 

[billiards]

The Gulf Stream is a 50 mile wide river of warm water traveling across the North Atlantic at a speed of about 4 miles an hour. The disturbance is the stoppage of the Gulf loop current, which is the engine that drives that flow, apparently. The disturbance does not travel at all. The effect of the disturbance, however, would propagate across the Atlantic immediately. Without the engine of the Gulf loop current, the flow peters out in the mid-Altantic. Apparently the loop current has disappeared. The suggestion is that it is due to the BP spill. I am just having difficulty understanding how the two might be connected.

AM

I am yet to be convince of the importance of the loop current -- for the purpose of this debate we must state clearly that we are implicitly assuming that it is very important in the transfer of heat from the Gulf to Europe -- the whole debate hinges on that.


Let me assume that it really is very important. I have further concerns:

I see from the data (http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf (Fig 1)) that an eddy has indeed broken off from the main loop, but it is clear to me that there is still a loop there, and so I am not sure I can agree with the letter when it says:

As of today the situation has deteriorated up to the point in which the eddy has detached itself completely from the main stream therefore destroying completely the Loop Current

Let me assume that the loop current really has been destroyed. What caused it? Could it be the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill? According to the letter:

Since comparative analysis with past satellite data until may 2010 didn’t show relevant anomalies, it might be therefore plausible to correlate the breaking of the Loop Current with the biochemical and physical action of the BP Oil Spill on the Gulf Stream.

hmmm... dubious at best.

To top it off, I remain unconvinced that the disturbance of the loop current would be felt immediately in Northern Europe. We must be clear that the assertion that recent cold weather in Europe is somehow tied to the Oil Spill is not made in the letter, and so as far as I can tell is the assertion of Andrew Mason. This assertion to my mind is built on a fragile hypothesis and may indeed be physically impossible.

 

[Studiot]

Well Andrew I am not saying I am asking

Can we prove the link, based upon the available data?

Do we even have enough data?

How about the unexpected winter emergency in eastern and mid western USA?
As I understand it the North Atlantic Drift Current ( commonly but erroneously called the gulf stream) diverts energy from the eastern USA towards Europe.
If, as you seem to contend, this has diminished or even stopped, where has this energy gone and why is the eastern USA also experiencing a harder winter?

Whilst I know the Earth's two fluid environments are inextricably linked, I understand the jet stream to be an integral part of the atmospheric convection cell which would still exist on a totally dry planet?

 

[Xnn]

When ice forms out of sea water, salt is mostly excluded from the ice. The left over brine, is very dense and sinks downward.

The North Atlantic Drift is a thermohaline driven current. That is to say, as warmers waters cool and eventually freeze to form sea ice, they become denser and sink. It is the temperature and salinity difference that are the driving force for the North Atlantic drift.

That it has diminished is due primarily to the lack of sea ice formation. The shortfall in sea ice is pronounced off the coast of Greenland, a deep water formation site.

 

[Andrew Mason]

To top it off, I remain unconvinced that the disturbance of the loop current would be felt immediately in Northern Europe. We must be clear that the assertion that recent cold weather in Europe is somehow tied to the Oil Spill is not made in the letter, and so as far as I can tell is the assertion of Andrew Mason. This assertion to my mind is built on a fragile hypothesis and may indeed be physically impossible.

I am not asserting that the recent cold weather is somehow tied to the BP spill. I am asking if anyone can explain the mechanism, or a mechanism, by which oil in the Gulf of Mexico of roughly .3 parts per million can stop ocean currents such as the Gulf loop current which drives the Gulf stream.

If the BP spill has somehow caused the Gulf loop current to disappear it is certainly plausible that this has contributed to the unusual winter Europe is having this year. That is simply a conclusion one can reach by: a) observing the non-controversial fact that the normally moderate climate in Europe depends heavily upon warm ocean water in the North Atlantic from the Gulf of Mexico reaching European shores, and b) reading the reports that satellite data from the summer has shown that the Gulf loop current has disappeared and that a drastic reduction in the flow of the Gulf Stream has occurred.

I am not saying that the BP spill has caused the Gulf loop to disappear. But I am intrigued by the possibility. My problem is that I don't understand how an oil spill would cause this.

AM

 

[AlephZero]

I can't speak for other parts of Europe, but what I see here is not different from what I remember as a standard winter back in sixties, seventies and early eigthies.

Absolutely. In 1963, there was sea ice around a significant amount of the UK coastline. I know, because I saw some of it myself. There were a couple of winters in the 1980s with disruptive amounts of snow before Christmas. Going back to 1947, there was snow cover in the east of the UK that lasted more than 12 weeks, with drifts up to 10 feet deep for much of that time. (This was at altitudes of less than 100ft ASL, not on the top of some mountain)

 

[billiards]

I am not saying that the BP spill has caused the Gulf loop to disappear. But I am intrigued by the possibility. My problem is that I don't understand how an oil spill would cause this.

AM

OK.

But, does the oil spill really cause this?

Perhaps we can rule that out before we waste our time trying to explain the how?

 

[billiards]

It was noticed this summer that the gulf stream had slowed down to almost a stop.

link please...?

Some scientists attributed this to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Again... this really is a BIG statement so I need a link...

That it has diminished is due primarily to the lack of sea ice formation.

Sounds more plausible, can we have a link to show less sea ice? And a physical explanation as to why that might stop the Gulf stream?

Also, de we know why we have less sea ice this year?

 

[geophysics10]

I am not saying that the BP spill has caused the Gulf loop to disappear. But I am intrigued by the possibility. My problem is that I don't understand how an oil spill would cause this.

AM

The gulf loop current is a natural equilibirum system but also a nonlinear system which is dependent on many variables: temperature, salinity, wind, flora and fauna, changing boundary conditions, the list goes on. And, the issue with boundary conditions of a localized Earth system is that they are connected to all other localized Earth systems: it's one big messy Earth system. What they are observing is an increasing number of gulf loop fractures in correlation with the oil propagating across the gulf. These fractures are identified by characteristic eddy loop currents which form from primary loop current fractures. Its a simple matter of the system being given new initial conditions, possibly the oil. But its possible there is very little/no physical correlation.

I am asking if anyone can explain the mechanism, or a mechanism, by which oil in the Gulf of Mexico of roughly .3 parts per million can stop ocean currents such as the Gulf loop current which drives the Gulf stream.

The Calming Effect, a well known and documented effect of oil on water, has a tremendous attenuating effect on wind surface wave formation. This is primarily due to the Gibbs surface elasticity of the oil monolayer, secondarily the surface tension of the oil monolayer, and negligibly the viscosity of the oil monolayer.

video of calming effect:


Further
Gibbs surface elasticity & calming effect: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AmJPh..75..407B

Gibbs elasticity:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/q669502108825773/fulltext.pdf

The biological impact of the oil affects biochemistry, chemistry, physical properties and ultimately thermodynamic properties of the region.

Is the data correlation enough to announce this publicly as being related? I don't think so. But I think there are plenty of rabbits to chase down the hole. Nonlinear dynamics of this magnitude is anyone's guessing game.

 

[nucleus]

It has to do with an Omega block. A high - pressure system set up a little south of where it is shown in the picture from last year. The storms that formed on the east coast of the US were forced on west side of Greenland and east Baffin Island, and that area has had above average temperatures. The cold air from the high arctic then flows out, and though advection over warmer water near UK forms snow.

The block has now broken down and the last two storms that were over Atlantic Canada have gone out to sea and will enter Europe from the west instead of the north.

I don’t know if the high will reform, but it all to do with where the Jet Streams go:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/why-so-cold-greenland-block_2010-01-11

 

[Borek]

Wow. It gives something to think about.

 

[Andrew Mason]

...What they are observing is an increasing number of gulf loop fractures in correlation with the oil propagating across the gulf. These fractures are identified by characteristic eddy loop currents which form from primary loop current fractures. Its a simple matter of the system being given new initial conditions, possibly the oil. But its possible there is very little/no physical correlation.

...

The Calming Effect, a well known and documented effect of oil on water, has a tremendous attenuating effect on wind surface wave formation. This is primarily due to the Gibbs surface elasticity of the oil monolayer, secondarily the surface tension of the oil monolayer, and negligibly the viscosity of the oil monolayer.

video of calming effect:

Thanks for explanation and links. The calming effect of a tablespoon of oil on the wind ruffled water surface is quite amazing.

The biological impact of the oil affects biochemistry, chemistry, physical properties and ultimately thermodynamic properties of the region.

Is the data correlation enough to announce this publicly as being related? I don't think so. But I think there are plenty of rabbits to chase down the hole. Nonlinear dynamics of this magnitude is anyone's guessing game.

Since the Gulf stream is a wind driven current, and since there is a plausible mechanism by which surface oil can reduce the effect of wind on water, it seems to me that the effect of the BP spill on the Gulf Stream is something to be looked into seriously. It doesn't appear to me that anyone is looking at such a connection seriously - at least not publicly.

AM

 

[Andrew Mason]

When ice forms out of sea water, salt is mostly excluded from the ice. The left over brine, is very dense and sinks downward.

The North Atlantic Drift is a thermohaline driven current. That is to say, as warmers waters cool and eventually freeze to form sea ice, they become denser and sink. It is the temperature and salinity difference that are the driving force for the North Atlantic drift.

That it has diminished is due primarily to the lack of sea ice formation. The shortfall in sea ice is pronounced off the coast of Greenland, a deep water formation site.

http://www.economist.com/node/7963571" seems to think that the argument that the Gulf Stream depends on the thermohaline current is wrong.

When the professor refers to the "near-impossible Gulf Stream failure" he appears to be referring to the unlikely circumstance that winds will not be available to drive the Gulf Stream. He may not be taking into consideration the effect of an oil spill on the interaction between wind and water.

AM

 

[Studiot]

How about the unexpected winter emergency in eastern and mid western USA?
As I understand it the North Atlantic Drift Current ( commonly but erroneously called the gulf stream) diverts energy from the eastern USA towards Europe.
If, as you seem to contend, this has diminished or even stopped, where has this energy gone and why is the eastern USA also experiencing a harder winter?

When replying to a point from a post it is helpful to address the entire point, not just part of one.

None of this speculation about what any interaction affects the basic point above which concerns the unusually cold weather in America.

If the coss Atlantic current (whatever you call it) carries less heat towards Europe then it must either leave it in America or carry it somewhere else.

How is the first scenario compatible with the current american winter?

How is the second scenario compatible with the known weather effects elsewhere?

 

[billiards]

When ice forms out of sea water, salt is mostly excluded from the ice. The left over brine, is very dense and sinks downward.

The North Atlantic Drift is a thermohaline driven current. That is to say, as warmers waters cool and eventually freeze to form sea ice, they become denser and sink. It is the temperature and salinity difference that are the driving force for the North Atlantic drift.

That it has diminished is due primarily to the lack of sea ice formation. The shortfall in sea ice is pronounced off the coast of Greenland, a deep water formation site.

The mechanism that was mentioned in relation to the slow down of sea ice formation was essentially warm summers. Warm summers create a warm layer of surface water which is more resistent to wind driven mixing, the wamr surface is more stable to convective overturning. This warm layer at the surface is more resistant to freezing.

Did we have a particularly warm summer? Or could there be another abnormal cause, for example the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull?

 

[Evo]

I hear its due to the oil dispersants that were used to clean up the spill, actually causing the current to break up. wrecking havoc to the normal flow.

Please post the research that backs this up, we don't allow speculation in the science forums.

 

[autumnezell]

heres a little bit on dispersants.

 

[Evo]

heres a little bit on dispersants.

No, it can't be someones personal opinion blog, it has to be mainstream scientific research.

 

[Andrew Mason]

http://www.itopf.com/_assets/documents/tip4.pdf" to a paper on the use of dispersants for oil spills is relevant. Application of dispersants on oil slicks is combined with a solvent. The solvent allows the dispersant to pentrate the oil slick to the water. The dispersant molecules, each consisting of an oleophillic part and hydrophillic part, causes the oil and water to combine and descend below the surface. The solvent then evaporates.

It seems that the research on the use of dispersants is focused on their effect on biology, not on water flow. Although there appears to be insufficient evidence to draw conclusions about a connection between the BP spill and/or use of dispersants on the one hand and changes to the Gulf Loop Current on the other, it is an issue that requires much more study. We don't seem to understand what effect this spill or the dispersant/solvents may have had on ocean currents and on the interaction between air and water, which appears to be an important factor in maintaining the Gulf Stream.

AM

 

[willem2]

One link that's missing between the oil spill, and the high temperatures in Europe, is that the Gulf stream doesn't directly warm Europe, it just makes most of the north atlantic warmer then it would have been without it. If you look at surface temperatures in November (GISTEMP for example) it doesn't look like the North atlantic is any colder than normal, certainly not on the European side.

 

[billiards]

The reason the weather was cold in Northern Europe was because the polar jet stream (a current in the upper atmosphere) was pushed to lower latitudes than usual. This meant that Northern Europe was exposed to cold polar weather systems rather than the remnant tropical warmth carried over by the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift.

The key to explaining the weather anomaly would be to explain what happened to the jet stream.

Incidentally, the fact that dispersants were used is a hugely important consideration if you are taking the air/water angle. If the oil is mostly underwater, will you still get the oil calming effect on the water? Probably not.

 

[Borek]

If the oil is mostly underwater, will you still get the oil calming effect on the water? Probably not.

For the calming effect oil must be present at the water/air interface. But as only small amount is required, fact that most is deeper may not matter.

 

[GH3]

The issue is a disruption of the Boundary layer between the warm and cool waters. The surfactants used in the Gulf Oil Spill infiltrated the thermohaline current (not the oil but the surfactant). The surfactant changes the Boundary layer conditions and the two water mix terminating the flow.

You can build a model of this on a bench and watch it stop when you add surfactants.

 

[Evo]

The issue is a disruption of the Boundary layer between the warm and cool waters. The surfactants used in the Gulf Oil Spill infiltrated the thermohaline current (not the oil but the surfactant). The surfactant changes the Boundary layer conditions and the two water mix terminating the flow.

Please post the scientific document which verifies this, we don't allow opinions in this forum.

Thanks.

 

[BilPrestonEsq]

Is it possible that the oil could have lowered the specific heat capacity of the water in the gulf? The specific heat of petroleum is half that of water. Now I realize that the percentage of oil to water is not all that high but it does tend to remain on the surface that could have stiffled the heat transfer necessary for the stream to continue flowing. Just throwing that out there.

 

[PhilKravitz]

I can't speak for other parts of Europe, but what I see here is not different from what I remember as a standard winter back in sixties, seventies and early eigthies. It was nineties and last decade that spoiled us into thinking winter is not what it is.

In short - I don't see anything unusual about the winter in Poland this year.

Borek, same here in New York State, US. We used to ski locally in the 60s but have not been able to do that for decades. This winter is like a normal winter with snow. Pretty much nicer than just gray.

 

[PhilKravitz]

b) reading the reports that satellite data from the summer has shown that the Gulf loop current has disappeared and that a drastic reduction in the flow of the Gulf Stream has occurred.
AM

Can you give some references for this data? I am unable to find any data that says the Gulf Stream has stopped or significantly decreased. Thanks.

 

[Andrew Mason]

Can you give some references for this data? I am unable to find any data that says the Gulf Stream has stopped or significantly decreased. Thanks.

The monitors removed the sources I originally posted, which were deemed not to be scientific. The reports were that the Gulf Loop Current had stopped.

The data for measurements of the Gulf Loop Current post-spill is found here: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/altimetry.php

The charts show monthly satellite altimetry data from April-December 2010. The satellite measures the height of the water surface, which correlates to temperature. The loop current is seen in its normal state in April and early May. If you look at the charts for May 2010 you will see a dramatic change to the loop current occurring from May 20-27 when the loop current appears to break off from the flow into the Carribean and Atlantic. This results in a warm eddy in the gulf detached from the rest of the flow. That warm eddy cools and eventually disappears in August. The current loop up into the Gulf appears to be missing for the remainder of 2010.

AM

 

[PhilKravitz]

The monitors removed the sources I originally posted, which were deemed not to be scientific. The reports were that the Gulf Loop Current had stopped.

AM

The Gulf loop pinches off on a regular basis. This is normal. It is a repeating patterns with a time scale of 1-2 years?

If anyone has data on the Gulf Stream slowing/stopping/cooling that would be news.

 

[Andrew Mason]

The Gulf loop pinches off on a regular basis. This is normal. It is a repeating patterns with a time scale of 1-2 years?

If anyone has data on the Gulf Stream slowing/stopping/cooling that would be news.

It does appear that eddies break off from time to time from the Gulf Loop flow. So there are natural events that cause this. There may also be unnatural events that cause this, such as an oil spill. It does seem rather striking that the eddy should break off within a month after the BP spill, just as the spill contacts the loop current. And it has stayed that way since then, it appears.

I haven't been able to find data for the Gulf Loop current before April 2010. If the current that exits between Cuba and Florida does not first circulate into the Gulf, is it going to acquire as much heat? Is there any correlation between the Gulf loop current and the temperature and/or flow of the North Atlantic Drift?

AM