Could someone please expalin this in an easier way?

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In summary, the conversation discusses a recent article from the Public Library of Medicine about potential future disease trends. The article compares three scenarios and predicts that the leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 will include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischemic heart disease. It also mentions road traffic accidents as a leading cause in one scenario and predicts that HIV/AIDS will become the leading cause in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. The conversation also includes a link to the original article and a suggestion not to use it for a persuasive essay due to its inclusion of optimistic and pessimistic projections.
  • #1
NadaN70
Could someone please expalin this in an easier way??

A recent issue of the Public Library of Medicine published an article speculating on what directions disease will take in the future. They compare three different scenarios: a baseline, and optimistic model and a pessimistic model. Their primary conclusion:
The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015.
 
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  • #2
Do you have a link?
 
  • #4
If this is for your persuasive essay, it might not be best to use it, because it has "optimistic" and "pessimistic" projections, meaning that it will give both extremes of probability for the future disease distribution. It does not specifically say that it will be better or worse.

This is the original article: http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0030442
 
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  • #5
How much of that statement DID you understand? I'm not sure what part needs to be made easier. It seems like there are three scenarios, and simple lists of most likely leading causes of death to accompany each.
 

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