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Could someone please expalin this in an easier way?

  1. Mar 27, 2008 #1
    Could someone please expalin this in an easier way??

    A recent issue of the Public Library of Medicine published an article speculating on what directions disease will take in the future. They compare three different scenarios: a baseline, and optimistic model and a pessimistic model. Their primary conclusion:
    The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015.
  2. jcsd
  3. Mar 27, 2008 #2
    Do you have a link?
  4. Mar 27, 2008 #3
  5. Mar 27, 2008 #4
    If this is for your persuasive essay, it might not be best to use it, because it has "optimistic" and "pessimistic" projections, meaning that it will give both extremes of probability for the future disease distribution. It does not specifically say that it will be better or worse.

    This is the original article: http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0030442 [Broken]
    Last edited by a moderator: May 3, 2017
  6. Mar 27, 2008 #5


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    How much of that statement DID you understand? I'm not sure what part needs to be made easier. It seems like there are three scenarios, and simple lists of most likely leading causes of death to accompany each.
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