COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

But more to the point, we know there's gamesmanship. There has been from the beginning, and it hasn't been unique to a political persuasion - the original 'masks don't help' position is an example. Governments are trying to coerce the actions they want to see, for the benefits they are trying to produce. Even today, democratic governments think it is ok to lie if they have the best interests of their people at heart. That position/reality should terrify us. It's exactly the opposite of what democratic governments are supposed to be about.

Well, at least that has hopefully taught policy-makers that lying is counterproductive (in most cases, maybe there are exceptions for spies or witness protection programs?).

 

[Rive]

Even today, democratic governments think it is ok to lie if they have the best interests of their people at heart. That position/reality should terrify us. It's exactly the opposite of what democratic governments are supposed to be about.

What really terrifies me is that they just found sufficient support from the scientific community for those claims.
Scientists are even less supposed to lie, especially about science.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's an obvious correlation across all of them.

Who needs science when you have "obvious"? Isn't it obvious that heavy objects fall faster than light objects?

1. The NYT has a particular political slant. (Remember "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice", even though the ratio of Covid deaths to all deaths in Georgia is a few percent below the national average)

2. In their figure "vaccine hesitancy" is an estimate. They were perfectly free to pick any estimate - or for that matter, definition - that they wanted.

3, Sure vaccination rates are correlated with politics. Vaccination rates are correlated with urbanization, and urbanization is correlated with politics. We have already discussed some of the challenges faced by rural areas. To then conclude that it's politics that drives this, in spite of all that, without any evidence because it's "obvious" may be many things, but it is not science.

One could of course get evidence - a PCA of 3000 counties would tell you the relative weights of political affiliation and urbanization. Wonder why nobody has done one.

 

[Vanadium 50]

People would still be lined-up around the block to get their first dose

That's pretty much where we are here. Five days ago I saw a walk-in turned away. At that time, you had to wait until early June for your turn. The only signs of slowing I see is that in the last five days the date of first dose availability has only slid back maybe 3 days.

It's also worth pointing out that keeping the vaccination rate constant requires a doubling of production and distribution compared to what it was 28 (or 21) days ago. Thus far, that seems to be happening (at least locally), but if it plateaus, Dose 1 rates will have to drop to accommodate Dose 2. That's just unitarity.

PS I am not arguing we will never see a point where vaccine reluctance dominates. I'm saying that I am not seeing evidence we have reached this point.

Even today, democratic governments think it is ok to lie if they have the best interests of their people at heart.

Well, if you let the rabble make their own informed decisions, sometimes they decide wrongly. Sometimes they even vote wrongly.

 

[Dale]

To everyone, can we please reign in the political discussion as much as possible and focus on the science to the extent possible. I am not asking for complete de-politicization, but let's reduce it to the extent possible.

 

[russ_watters]

2. In their figure "vaccine hesitancy" is an estimate. They were perfectly free to pick any estimate - or for that matter, definition - that they wanted.

3, Sure vaccination rates are correlated with politics. Vaccination rates are correlated with urbanization, and urbanization is correlated with politics. We have already discussed some of the challenges faced by rural areas. To then conclude that it's politics that drives this, in spite of all that, without any evidence because it's "obvious" may be many things, but it is not science.

I share your skepticism of correlation = causation assumptions and statistics with difficult to define "estimated" values, but here we do have something more concrete: survey data where people are directly asked their position/intentions. One was linked in the article:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_041421.pdf/

The question was (last page):
"6. Have you received at least one dose of Covid vaccine, or not? Do you plan to get the Covid vaccine as soon as you are allowed, will you let other people get it first to see how it goes, or is it likely you will never get the vaccine if you can avoid it?"

The options are:
-Already received
-As soon as allowed
-See how it goes
-Likely will never get
-[VOL] Dont know

The differences by political affiliation are stark, and I believe people are telling the truth here about what they have done and their intentions. But it is 6 weeks old so may be out of date.

Note: while the political connection on this topic is obvious, I don't see a need to make the discussion itself political. The reason I think it matters is I think it informs to what the vaccination rate tops out at. Determining if what we are seeing now is a distribution problem or a hesitancy problem is key to that. I'm more interested in the geography than the political leanings of the people. Age too.

It's also worth pointing out that keeping the vaccination rate constant requires a doubling of production and distribution compared to what it was 28 (or 21) days ago. Thus far, that seems to be happening (at least locally), but if it plateaus, Dose 1 rates will have to drop to accommodate Dose 2. That's just unitarity.

No, we're way past that (nationally anyway). The rates aren't constant, they are decreasing. Not constant-decreasing, actually decreasing-decreasing. First vaccinations are down. Second vaccinations are down. Total vaccinations are down. A lot:

• First Dose (Peak 4/1): 1.7 M/day --> 0.6 M/day
• Second Dose (Peak 4/22): 1.5 M/day --> 1.0 M/day
• Total Administered (Peak: 4/11): 3.3 M/day --> 1.7 M/day

(second numbers are a week ago's rates, all are prior week's average. J&J counts toward the total but is less than 100k/day)

Also, you've provided some anecdotes about your locale, but do you have an statistics? These anecdotes are thin at best.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Thanks for posting the Monmouth study. I agree, having created it six weeks ago, in the midst of the J&J scare, probably matters. But it opens up some very interesting questions:

(1) Whites and non-whites answered "likely never get" about the same rate (22% vs 20%). However, non-white vaccination rates are 3/4 that of the average. Why is that?

(2) Having children in the home makes one more likely to say "likely never get" rather than less. (28% vs. 19%) Why is that?

 

[BillTre]

(1) Whites and non-whites answered "likely never get" about the same rate (22% vs 20%). However, non-white vaccination rates are 3/4 that of the average. Why is that?

I am guessing it could be access to the vaccine (not all social groups have equal access),
or perhaps a difference in the amount of difficulty in getting to vaccination locations.
As demand for vaccines go down overall, vaccine availability would be expected to improve in areas that were initially vaccine limited.

(2) Having children in the home makes one more likely to say "likely never get" rather than less. (28% vs. 19%) Why is that?

Possibly, some feel they are too busy taking care of the kids to do that extra stuff.

 

[russ_watters]

Thanks for posting the Monmouth study. I agree, having created it six weeks ago, in the midst of the J&J scare, probably matters. But it opens up some very interesting questions:

(1) Whites and non-whites answered "likely never get" about the same rate (22% vs 20%). However, non-white vaccination rates are 3/4 that of the average. Why is that?

A couple of speculations:
At time of the study, urgency and access mattered more than today. The middle choices had higher answers for minorities too, potentially indicating some ambivalence leading to people not shoving their way to the head of the line. Similarly, if you are in a white-collar job using a computer all day, it is a lot easier to check some background browser tabs periodically for appointments than for a warehouse, factory worker, food service, etc to do the same.

(2) Having children in the home makes one more likely to say "likely never get" rather than less. (28% vs. 19%) Why is that?

Age. Almost nobody 65+ has children at home and they are the lowest "likely never get" respondents. Parents with kids at home (20s to 50s?) are near the sweet spot for that stat based on age (35-54; 32%).
[edit] or is that the tail wagging the dog? Why aren't kids/young adults less likely to get it based on risk?

 

[Jarvis323]

I would expect correlations between vaccine skepticism/fears and answering phone calls by unknown numbers and then subsequently agreeing to participate in the polls.

 

[nsaspook]

https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/good-news-mild-covid-19-induces-lasting-antibody-protection/

The findings, published May 24 in the journal Nature, suggest that mild cases of COVID-19 leave those infected with lasting antibody protection and that repeated bouts of illness are likely to be uncommon.

“Last fall, there were reports that antibodies wane quickly after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, and mainstream media interpreted that to mean that immunity was not long-lived,” said senior author Ali Ellebedy, PhD, an associate professor of pathology & immunology, of medicine and of molecular microbiology. “But that’s a misinterpretation of the data. It’s normal for antibody levels to go down after acute infection, but they don’t go down to zero; they plateau. Here, we found antibody-producing cells in people 11 months after first symptoms. These cells will live and produce antibodies for the rest of people’s lives. That’s strong evidence for long-lasting immunity.”

 

[AlexCaledin]

- or maybe that's evidence of some permanent virus presence?

 

[Rive]

- or maybe that's evidence of some permanent virus presence?

Kind of, I think. Maybe.
In this context 'immunity' is misleading. The latest developments may suggest that with time Covid really can become something like a cold: not through mutations 'pacifying' it (as it was often brought up at the beginning of the pandemic) , but through a fast response of a trained immune system stopping it becoming serious.
So it's not he classic 'immunity 'one would expect.

 

[morrobay]

Kind of, I think. Maybe.
In this context 'immunity' is misleading. The latest developments may suggest that with time Covid really can become something like a cold: not through mutations 'pacifying' it (as it was often brought up at the beginning of the pandemic) , but through a fast response of a trained immune system stopping it becoming serious.
So it's not he classic 'immunity 'one would expect.

Natural cellular T cell defense is underated:https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-...n-why-immunity-is-about-more-than-antibodies/. A high proportion of CD8+Tcell responses was observed in patients who only developed mild disease. Another study has shown that 93% of exposed asymptomatic individuals* had T cell response to CoV-2. *Relatives of confirmed cases. Also potential for cross reactive Tcell recognition between circulating common cold coronaviruses and CoV-2 was shown. So this may explain the differences in individual exposures/infections.

 

[atyy]

https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/good-news-mild-covid-19-induces-lasting-antibody-protection/

This is likely to change as new viral variants evolve. However, while reinfections will become increasingly common, the immunity from the first infection will probably still protect against severe disease.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I am guessing it could be access to the vaccine (not all social groups have equal access),
or perhaps a difference in the amount of difficulty in getting to vaccination locations.

I agree. And doesn't it make more sense to devote resources to vaccinating people who want it rather than on convincing/coercing/punishing those who don't?

 

[bhobba]

I agree. And doesn't it make more sense to devote resources to vaccinating people who want it rather than on convincing/coercing/punishing those who don't?

Certainly, until all the people that want it are vaccinated. If that is good enough, then it can be left at that. If not, then society will need to decide what to do. My suggestion is simply for them to have a chat with a doctor. Beyond that is something I am not comfortable with and will need to see how it plays out.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

Certainly, until all the people that want it are vaccinated. If that is good enough, then it can be left at that. If not, then society will need to decide what to do. My suggestion is simply for them to have a chat with a doctor. Beyond that is something I am not comfortable with and will need to see how it plays out.

Thanks
Bill

What if the doctors don't want to see anyone who isn't vaccinated?

 

[bhobba]

What if the doctors don't want to see anyone who isn't vaccinated?

Here in Aus, they are only starting mass vaccination centres now. At the moment, nearly everyone does what I did. I went to my doctor, who explained the risk vs reward. I already knew the issues, except one. The pill has a 1 in 1000 chance of causing a thrombosis, 3% of which are fatal or 30 in a million chance of dying. Of course, being a man it was not an issue, but still interesting. You can go to a vaccination centre or a doctor (for free). As my doctor explained, it was a standard speil they were required to explain to everyone. So doctors are seeing tons of unvaccinated people right now. Nothing would happen that is different. Once the risk vs reward is explained, the patient makes the decision. All I am saying is, once all the people that want vaccination are finished, those hesitant are asked to speak to a doctor. I am uncomfortable with forcing them, but we will have to see how this plays out. Voluntary compliance is always preferable.

Added Later:
Forgot to mention the pill risk is using it for a year.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

My point was that you are happy forcing medical staff to see unvaccinated patients! They may object - you never know!

I am not happy with forcing anyone to do anything in general. Of course, there are times where it is necessary. I am not happy with forcing doctors to see unvaccinated patients. But in practice, I have not heard of it being an issue. Certainly, none of the doctors at my clinic has any issues.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

I am not happy with forcing anyone to do anything in general. Of course, there are times where it is necessary. I am not happy with forcing doctors to see unvaccinated patients. But in practice, I have not heard of it being an issue. Certainly, none of the doctors at my clinic has any issues.

Thanks
Bill

I deleted that post. There is too much uncertainty to have a meaningful debate. Not to mention that Australia and the UK have had very different experiences of COVID.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I agree. And doesn't it make more sense to devote resources to vaccinating people who want it rather than on convincing/coercing/punishing those who don't?

These efforts are not mutually exclusive.

 

[russ_watters]

I agree. And doesn't it make more sense to devote resources to vaccinating people who want it rather than on convincing/coercing/punishing those who don't?

Well, we're just talking/predicting here. As far as I can tell there has only been a little bit of convincing (TV ads, freebies, the dumb new mask policy) and no coercing or punishing. Some businesses may mandate vaccination (Penn Medicine has announced they will) and maybe some schools, but if the infection numbers keep falling and/or we hit the mythical 70% goal, we'll probably drop the whole thing. Mobile clinics are a good idea. Gift cards and lottery tickets too. Since schools/colleges are starting to let out just as kids become eligible, offering the vaccine for them at school in the fall would be good.

We've had a bump-up in cases due to expanded eligibility for kids, but If the rate settles out at 0.5 million per day (each), where first doses were two weeks ago, we're looking at end of August to reach 70%.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Victoria, Australia, is going into another seven day lockdown to stop the spreading of Covid-19 after it has re-emerged in the community:

The number of positive COVID-19 case numbers in Melbourne continues to rise and was at 34 at 1pm (NZ time) according to Health Victoria.
...
The cases in the Melbourne cluster have the B1.617 variant, which was first identified in India. This variant was previously described by Kiwi academics as "worrying" as it includes two mutations. These escape mutations have the ability to slip past the body's immune defences.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...lian-state-of-victoria-to-enter-7day-lockdown

I see now Biden has ordered an intelligence report into the lab leaking of Covid-19 from China.
-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/ameri...new-us-report-on-virus-origins-within-90-days

 

[nsaspook]

More fully vaccinated guidance from Oregon. Who will want to be in the Leper colony?

https://www.kptv.com/news/confusion-concern-consequences-surround-oregon-option-for-separating-vaccinated-from-unvaccinated/article_a9f2eec6-be98-11eb-a826-e766856e66c6.html

It’s an option to create separate sections for those who are vaccinated and those who aren’t. The idea is that unvaccinated people would be required to be socially distant and masked, while vaccinated individuals would be free to gather closely without their masks.

“We will see an effect of really separating people,” said Aimee Huff, an assistant professor of marketing at the College of Business at Oregon State University, during an interview Wednesday.
...
The latest shift in Oregon rules is again leaving people and businesses with mixed feelings, confusion and uncertainty about ramifications.

“What we expect to see, is that some segments of shoppers will intentionally seek out businesses whose vaccine policies align with their own individual preferences around the vaccine and political ideologies,” Huff said.

 

[nsaspook]

I see now Biden has ordered an intelligence report into the lab leaking of Covid-19 from China.
-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/ameri...new-us-report-on-virus-origins-within-90-days

Biden in a statement said the majority of the intelligence community had “coalesced” around those two scenarios but “do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other”. He revealed that two agencies lean toward the animal link and “one leans more toward” the lab theory, "each with low or moderate confidence".

Low or moderate confidence means they are clueless.

 

[Tom.G]

[vaccination card] doesn't really fit anywhere. I was instructed not to laminate it.

Here in the US, the two large Office Supply chain stores are offering FREE LAMINATION. At least one of them will make the laminate longer with a slot in it like a luggage tag. They will not laminate the original because it may need to be updated for booster shots.

As for fitting in a wallet, some women carry larger wallets that the full-size card will fit. The Office Supply stores can photo-reduce the copy size to the width of a credit card. If you do that, the card will be slightly taller than a credit card, making it easy to find/grab when needed; else reduce it more for a fit to the height.

Cheers,
Tom

 

[atyy]

I see now Biden has ordered an intelligence report into the lab leaking of Covid-19 from China.
-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/ameri...new-us-report-on-virus-origins-within-90-days

Low or moderate confidence means they are clueless.

It appears to be partly from reports like WSJ's "Report says researchers went to hospital in November 2019, shortly before confirmed outbreak; adds to calls for probe of whether virus escaped lab". If those researchers are still alive, an antibody test before they got vaccinated would check or deny SARS-CoV-2 as the reason for their hospital visit. Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute reported that that institute had done sera testing (presumably antibody testing) on all its staff, and none were positive.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6503/487.summary
https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q&A.pdf

 

[bhobba]

Amazing how public perception changes with circumstance. The highly contagious Indian variant is loose in Melbourne and is now in lockdown. Vaccine hubs have recently been opened to complement getting it from your GP as I did. Many were twiddling their thumbs with just a few people coming in. It was so 'bad' they were doing even low priority 40-year-olds that just walked in. It was from vaccine hesitancy with people worried about the 1 in a million chance of dying from blood clots even though testing and treatment have improved:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05...ccine-doctors-learn-diagnosis-treat/100167716

Now they're all booked up, and the number vaccinated is increasing - it is now 111,000 a day. Hopefully, this is the wake-up call people needed to understand the risk vs reward. We have hit the 4 million mark, about 20% of the population (excluding children). The new 'target' is to get it done by years end.

Added Later:
It is amazing what a good scare will do - about 122,000 vaccinated today, the 28th.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

Here in the US, the two large Office Supply chain stores are offering FREE LAMINATION.

Thanks. Just had mine done. (But Brand S may not be doing in anymore. Brand O is still doing them)

 

[atyy]

https://www.ft.com/content/f76eb802-ec05-4461-9956-b250115d0577
Scientists claim to have solved Covid vaccine blood-clot puzzle
German researchers say side effect is caused by adenovirus vector and can be fixed

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-558954/v1
Vaccine-Induced Covid-19 Mimicry” Syndrome: Splice reactions within the SARS-CoV-2 Spike open reading frame result in Spike protein variants that may cause thromboembolic events in patients immunized with vector-based vaccines
Eric Kowarz, Lea Krutzke, Jenny Reis, Silvia Bracharz, Stefan Kochanek, Rolf Marschalek
"Here, we present data that may explain these severe side effects which have been attributed to adenoviral vaccines. According to our results, transcription of wildtype and codon-optimized Spike open reading frames enables alternative splice events that lead to C-terminal truncated, soluble Spike protein variants. These soluble Spike variants may initiate severe side effects when binding to ACE2-expressing endothelial cells in blood vessels. In analogy to the thromboembolic events caused by Spike protein encoded by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we termed the underlying disease mechanism the “Vaccine-Induced Covid-19 Mimicry” syndrome (VIC19M syndrome)."

 

[mfb]

These Florida concert tickets are $18 if you're vaccinated, $1,000 if you're not

The promoter behind the discount hopes it encourages people to get their shot.

 

[bhobba]

You are not free to use a car in any way you see fit. You need a license, you need to follow traffic rules, your blood alcohol content needs to be below some limits, and many more requirements. Similarly, the risk to infect others makes some behavior a risk to everyone, not just the person being infected. Things like mask requirements are "pandemic traffic rules".

Where you draw the line, of course, is a matter of debate. But the details of any particular issue will often take us into politics that we do not discuss here. In a democracy, if you do not like a rule, it can be changed.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

I see now Biden has ordered an intelligence report into the lab leaking of Covid-19 from China.
-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/ameri...new-us-report-on-virus-origins-within-90-days

I remember a study early in the pandemic that tried to trace the origin of the virus. One thing in paticular was that the variant B found in Wuhan was not the same virus A found in Europe or the Americas. That study seems to say that root virus A actually started being circulated long before a possible lab leak or local infection happened near Wuhan from variant B that stayed main in China.

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241

In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia. The network faithfully traces routes of infections for documented Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.

This viral network is a snapshot of the early stages of an epidemic before the phylogeny becomes obscured by subsequent migration and mutation. The question may be asked whether the rooting of the viral evolution can be achieved at this early stage by using the oldest available sampled genome as a root. As SI Appendix, Fig. S4 shows, however, the first virus genome that was sampled on 24 December 2019 already is distant from the root type according to the bat Coronavirus outgroup rooting.

 

[nsaspook]

Another data point in the virus origin story.

https://scitechdaily.com/tracing-co...re-the-first-known-cases-identified-in-china/

Kumar’s group estimates that the SARS-CoV-2 progenitor was already circulating with an earlier timeline — at least 6 to 8 weeks prior to the first genome sequenced in China, known as Wuhan-1. “This timeline puts the presence of proCoV2 in late October 2019, which is consistent with the report of a fragment of spike protein identical to Wuhan-1 in early December in Italy, among other evidence,” said Sayaka Miura, a senior author of the study.

“We have found progenitor genetic fingerprint in January 2020 and later in multiple Coronavirus infections in China and the USA. The progenitor was spreading worldwide months before and after the first reported cases of COVID-19 in China,” said Pond.

 

[atyy]

I remember a study early in the pandemic that tried to trace the origin of the virus. One thing in paticular was that the variant B found in Wuhan was not the same virus A found in Europe or the Americas. That study seems to say that root virus A actually started being circulated long before a possible lab leak or local infection happened near Wuhan from variant B that stayed main in China.

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241

That study by Forster et al (2020) is controversial.
Mavian et al (2020) Sampling bias and incorrect rooting make phylogenetic network tracing of SARS-COV-2 infections unreliable
Sanchez-Pacheco et al (2020) Median-joining network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes is neither phylogenetic nor evolutionary
There is also a tweet from Trevor Bedford concurring with the letter by Mavian et al.

 

[mfb]

Coronavirus non-containment efforts:

California cafe owner charges customers $5 fee for wearing masks
They also have a $5 fee for mentioning vaccinations.

 

[nsaspook]

That study by Forster et al (2020) is controversial.
Mavian et al (2020) Sampling bias and incorrect rooting make phylogenetic network tracing of SARS-COV-2 infections unreliable
Sanchez-Pacheco et al (2020) Median-joining network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes is neither phylogenetic nor evolutionary
There is also a tweet from Trevor Bedford concurring with the letter by Mavian et al.

Does this paper (from the scitechdaily link) that makes much of the same conclusions have the same issues?
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msab118/6257226

Global sequencing of hundreds of thousands of genomes of Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2, SARS-CoV-2, has continued to reveal new genetic variants that are the key to unraveling its early evolutionary history and tracking its global spread over time. Here, we present the heretofore cryptic mutational history and spatiotemporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 from an analysis of thousands of high-quality genomes. We report the likely most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, reconstructed through a novel application and advancement of computational methods initially developed to infer the mutational history of tumor cells in a patient. This progenitor genome differs from genomes of the first coronaviruses sampled in China by three variants, implying that none of the earliest patients represent the index case or gave rise to all the human infections. However, multiple Coronavirus infections in China and the USA harbored the progenitor genetic fingerprint in January 2020 and later, suggesting that the progenitor was spreading worldwide months before and after the first reported cases of COVID-19 in China.

 

[atyy]

Does this paper (from the scitechdaily link) that makes much of the same conclusions have the same issues?
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msab118/6257226

Do you mean the evolutionary tree, or just that the first case may have been in October 2019? The latter seems roughly the same as common sense and many other analyses. It could be confirmed if patient samples in the Hubei region were analyzed. Unfortunately, there are no details, but SCMP reported it had seen government data consistent with a case in Hubei as early as 17th November 2019.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-china-first-confirmed-covid-152553818.html

 

[atyy]

I found this preprint (now published in Science) by looking for papers that cite https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msab118/6257226 pointed to by @nsaspook in post #5085.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.20.392126v1
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province
Jonathan Pekar, Michael Worobey, Niema Moshiri, Konrad Scheffler, Joel O. Wertheim

If they use the SCMP report, they estimate a first case around late October. But if they reject the SCMP report, and use the official first patient date, they estimate a first case around late November. So there is uncertainty, and obviously it would be nice to know whether the SCMP report can be confirmed (they are usually a very good newspaper, which is why they are given some weight)

 

[PeroK]

Coronavirus non-containment efforts:

California cafe owner charges customers $5 fee for wearing masks
They also have a $5 fee for mentioning vaccinations.

I wonder whether he considers that the people who died of COVID were complicit in government propaganda?

 

[Tom.G]

re post #5090 above by @atyy

I found this preprint (now published in Science) by looking for papers that cite https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msab118/6257226 pointed to by @nsaspook in post #5085.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.20.392126v1
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province
Jonathan Pekar, Michael Worobey, Niema Moshiri, Konrad Scheffler, Joel O. Wertheim

From the figure on page 24 of the article, it looks like they can stop looking for Wuhan lab creation.
If I read it right, the figure seems to show there is/was a common progenitor to the Bat and the Human versions.

 

[bhobba]

I wonder whether he considers that the people who died of COVID were complicit in government propaganda?

It reminds me of this Hairdresser:
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...customers-who-have-covid-19-vaccine-c-2878833

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

re post #5090 above by @atyy

From the figure on page 24 of the article, it looks like they can stop looking for Wuhan lab creation.
If I read it right, the figure seems to show there is/was a common progenitor to the Bat and the Human versions.

That's conjectured. I think the lab creation or accidental lab release can be assigned a very low probability for a few reasons.

The reasons against lab creation are given in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9. Additionally, the Wuhan Institute (WIV) reports that although it has "isolated live" viruses, these have only about 80% similarity to SARS-CoV-2. The virus with the closest sequence is RaTG13 (about 96%), also in the samples of the WIV. The 96% similarity is too far for RaTg13 to be the direct ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 (estimated about 30 or more years apart), but one may consider the exotic possibility that WIV did experiments on RaTG13 and hastened the evolution. However, that is unlikely because the WIV reports that it did not have RaTG13 "isolated live".

Another possibility that can be considered is that SARS-CoV-2 was among their samples, and although not isolated live, did infect one of their staff. For example, they collected many viral samples, including RaTG13, from a cave, because in 2012 some workers who were preparing the cave for copper mining got sick with pneumonia potentially due to an unknown virus. So while the WIV staff collected the samples or handled them, they may have gotten infected in a similar way as conjectured for the workers. However, this possibility is also unlikely based on WIV reports that they had tested their staff for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and there was no evidence of any previous infection. Incidentally, after the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, they went back to serum samples from the mining workers who were conjectured to have been infected with an unknown virus to check if that conjectured virus could have been SARS-CoV-2, and it was not.

The above information about the WIV was drawn from an interview with Shi Zhengli, as well as an addendum to her group's paper on RaTG13.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6503/487.summary
https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q&A.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2951-z

The same information is in the WHO report on SARS-CoV-2 origins, with a little extra detail.
https://www.who.int/publications/i/...bal-study-of-origins-of-sars-cov-2-china-part
"The three laboratories in Wuhan working with either CoVs diagnostics and/or CoVs isolation and vaccine development all had high quality biosafety level (BSL3 or 4) facilities that were well-managed, with a staff health monitoring programme with no reporting of COVID-19 compatible respiratory illness during the weeks/months prior to December 2019, and no serological evidence of infection in workers through SARS-CoV-2-specific serology-screening."

The WHO report says the lab release theory is unlikely, but it does not rule out revisiting the lab release theory if more evidence comes to light.
"What would be needed to increase knowledge? Regular administrative and internal review of high-level biosafety laboratories worldwide. Follow-up of new evidence supplied around possible laboratory leaks."

 

[PeroK]

It reminds me of this Hairdresser:
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...customers-who-have-covid-19-vaccine-c-2878833

Thanks
Bill

Human stupidity is a bottomless pit, it seems.

On the positive side, vaccine hesitancy in the UK seems to be very low - perhaps less than 10%. The Indian variant is giving people a fright and a further incentive to get vaccinated. Currently about 75% of the adult population has had at least one jab and almost 50% the second. We have another two weeks of mostly second jabs before we'll begin to see how many of the remaining 25% will come forward.

A hair salon in the UK that refused vaccinated people would have a dwindling customer base!

On the negative side, the highly-infectious Indian variant has come just in time potentially to induce a third wave, especially as things have begun to open up. It may be in the balance but, you know, a third-wave would make life very difficult for the anti-vaxxers here.

 

[Astronuc]

this Hairdresser:
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...customers-who-have-covid-19-vaccine-c-2878833

Originally from Melbourne, Yazmina Jade Adler, who operates a hair salon on the Gold Coast . . . and is wacky as hell, . . .

No offense bhobba, but Queensland can keep her.

 

[Bandersnatch]

That headline would be much less newsworthy if they reframed it as: crystal healer believes in woo.

 

[Borg]

Whenever I hear about healing crystals, I think claymore. Same IQ I think.

Spoiler

 

[bhobba]

I know regular Covid has an R0 of 2-3. The R0 of some newer strains must be off the charts from media reports:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/james-merlino-hints-at-factors-that-may-determine-end-of-victorian-lockdown/news-story/7530251c173e0bf6c4e07a500651a9e1

Melbourne is in total lockdown. Some doctors think even that will not lower the R0 of the Indian strain enough to eliminate it - we will need to wait and see. It's on a knife-edge:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/maidstone-nursing-home-in-lockdown-after-worker-tests-positive-to-covid/news-story/ea09bd1f22b1036fd44784b73a61692d

Finally, people here in Aus are showing urgency in vaccination. Some have been saying it is not a race - we have time. IMHO it is a race, and a race we must win. In the US where there have been over 100 million vaccinations. Of those, about 500 ended up in the hospital, and about 100 died from Covid. Deaths and hospitalisations likely will be even better once everyone is vaccinated as less transmission will cut the virus spread. Our vaccination rate has jumped from a 7 day average of 60k to 90k per day - and increasing. But logistical distribution is still a problem:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/virus-expert-warns-australians-will-not-be-fully-vaccinated-by-years-end/news-story/ba4ba1d02d6b0262571cb580005891dc

With producing over a million doses a week and keeping a vaccination for the second dose, we can do about 500,000 a week which is what is happening now. We are closing in on 25% of the population having at least one Jab, but that means we need to get our finger out to be fully vaccinated by years end. We are getting some overseas supplies; year-end is possible if managed properly IMHO. But this has really shown just how inefficient our 'bureaucracy' is in Aus. Far too much shifting the blame instead of getting on with it.

At the moment, I would vaccinate only those that want it, but eventually, we will have to confront what to do about those that do not. Whooping Cough vaccine is mandatory here in Aus. If you do not get it, government benefits and services, even enrolling kids in school, are gradually removed. That seems the most likely 'penalty'. Beyond that, I have no idea. We may be lucky. The numbers refusing vaccination may be nothing to worry about - but that has not proven the case with Whopping Cough.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

On the positive side, vaccine hesitancy in the UK seems to be very low - perhaps less than 10%.

It is higher in Aus - maybe 30%. But with the lockdown in Melbourne, people seem to be scared into getting it. Hopefully, it is lower now. I try in my posts, such as comments on stories in the paper, to give people the facts. For example, we are getting about twice as many thromboses from the AZ vaccine, but the death rate is lower than overseas. Here it seems to be 4% rather than 20%. The conjecture is we are detecting and treating better :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05...ccine-doctors-learn-diagnosis-treat/100167716

Interestingly it turns out to be about the same as the risk of dying while driving to get the vaccine. When that is pointed out, the responses you sometimes get are, how to put it, interesting, e.g. that is too glib, you do not understand the hesitancy.

Thanks
Bill