COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Rive]

I know regular Covid has an R0 of 2-3. The R0 of some newer strains must be off the charts ...

I really doubt that this works like that. According to the linked article so far there are just sporadic cases which may accounted for some mysterious far-contact phenomena, but I don't think it's conclusive so Occam is still in effect at this point.

 

[bhobba]

I really doubt that this works like that. According to the linked article so far there are just sporadic cases which may accounted for some mysterious far-contact phenomena, but I don't think it's conclusive so Occam is still in effect at this point.

I pray you are right.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

I know regular Covid has an R0 of 2-3. The R0 of some newer strains must be off the charts from media reports:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/james-merlino-hints-at-factors-that-may-determine-end-of-victorian-lockdown/news-story/7530251c173e0bf6c4e07a500651a9e1

Melbourne is in total lockdown. Some doctors think even that will not lower the R0 of the Indian strain enough to eliminate it - we will need to wait and see. It's on a knife-edge:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/maidstone-nursing-home-in-lockdown-after-worker-tests-positive-to-covid/news-story/ea09bd1f22b1036fd44784b73a61692d
...
Thanks
Bill

The stealthy destroyers have arrived.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-coronavirus-containment-efforts.983707/post-6402293
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-coronavirus-containment-efforts.983707/post-6448258

 

[nsaspook]

Hope over fear

When the C.D.C. reversed its Covid-19 guidelines last month and said that vaccinated Americans rarely needed to wear masks, it caused both anxiety and uncertainty.

Many people worried that the change would cause unvaccinated people to shed their masks and create a surge of new cases. On the flip side, a more optimistic outcome also seemed possible: that the potential to live mostly mask-free would inspire some vaccine-hesitant Americans to get their shots.

Almost three weeks after the change, we can begin to get some answers by looking at the data. So far, it suggests that the optimists were better prognosticators than the pessimists.

Shots have stopped falling

On the other hand, the C.D.C.’s change has had a noticeable effect on behavior in a positive way.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the agency’s director, announced the new mask recommendations at 2:17 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, May 13. Almost immediately, the number of visits to vaccines.gov — a website where people can research their local vaccination options — spiked, CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen has reported.

Traffic to the website rose even higher later that afternoon, after President Biden celebrated the change and encouraged Americans to get vaccinated so they could remove their masks. In the days that followed, traffic to vaccines.gov remained higher than it had been before the announcement.

More important, the vaccination trends also changed after Walensky’s announcement. For the previous month, the number of daily shots in the U.S. had been falling, as the country began to run out of adults who were eager to be vaccinated. With a few days of the mask announcement, the decline leveled off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/briefing/covid-19-masks-guidance-vaccinations.html

The CDC vaccinated mask guidance seems to have been the right thing at the right time.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Hope over fear

Shots have stopped falling

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/briefing/covid-19-masks-guidance-vaccinations.html

The CDC vaccinated mask guidance seems to have been the right thing at the right time.

One confounding factor in this analysis is that the Pfizer vaccine was given EUA for use in adolescents at around the same time as the change in mask guidance. The authorization to use the Pfizer vaccine in adolescents is probably the primary driver of increased vaccinations, so one would have to look at the rates of vaccinations in adults specifically to disentangle these effects.

 

[nsaspook]

One confounding factor in this analysis is that the Pfizer vaccine was given EUA for use in adolescents at around the same time as the change in mask guidance. The authorization to use the Pfizer vaccine in adolescents is probably the primary driver of increased vaccinations, so one would have to look at the rates of vaccinations in adults specifically to disentangle these effects.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/29/us/covid-vaccine-teens.html

The first dose chart here from CDC data shows the bump from adolescents but it also shows at least a temporary leveling in the decrease of adults.

The more important data for me is that national daily cases are at the 'safe' level. We have some level of Containment here finally from vaccination.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-c...ess-fa7673a1-0582-4e69-aefb-3b5170268048.html

For now, though, the U.S. has finally gotten the virus down to a level that just about every expert agrees is safe. Fewer than 20,000 cases per day, spread across the U.S. population of 331.5 million people, is a relatively low number of cases, and that number continues to improve across the board.

• New York, which bore the brunt of the virus’ arrival in the U.S., is now averaging about 800 new cases per day, in a state of some 20 million people.
• Washington, D.C. has about 28 new cases per day.
• Florida has more total cases per day — about 1,800, on average — than any other state. But again, that’s spread over a state with over 20 million people, and its numbers are improving just like the rest of the country’s. Florida’s daily case counts fell by 25% just this week.

The bottom line: The vaccines work. They’ve brought cases to their lowest point yet, and because that improvement is the result of vaccines, there’s no reason to believe the virus will start gaining significant ground again any time soon.

• Cases in the U.S. are low, and they’re likely to stay low — which is why, after 56 weeks, this will be the end of our weekly map. Thank you for reading.

 

[atyy]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-c...ess-fa7673a1-0582-4e69-aefb-3b5170268048.html

The bottom line: The vaccines work. They’ve brought cases to their lowest point yet, and because that improvement is the result of vaccines, there’s no reason to believe the virus will start gaining significant ground again any time soon.

There could be some increase in the number of cases with new viral variants, but hopefully the vaccine will mean that symptoms remain mild, and ICU cases won't increase even if case numbers increase. Perhaps there will be a booster jab some time next year that at least the vulnerable population will be recommended to take.

 

[bhobba]

but hopefully the vaccine will mean that symptoms remain mild, and ICU cases won't increase even if case numbers increase.

The UK variant is the dominant variant in the UK and now in the US. The stats on those vaccinated is actually stunning. Of over 100 million vaccinated in the US, those vaccinated had only about 500 hospitalisations and 100 deaths. That is about a 1 in a million chance of dying. Better than the chance of dying from the flu when vaccinated. @Ygggdrasil will likely know the exact figures. Once everyone is vaccinated, and it may require regular shots each year or something similar, fingers crossed, getting both the flu and the Covid vaccine, we may be better off than before the pandemic. The reason is more people are aware of getting the flu vaccine.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

New York, which bore the brunt of the virus’ arrival in the U.S., is now averaging about 800 new cases per day, in a state of some 20 million people.

In the state of New York, as of June 3, there have been 56,176,812 persons tested for Covid-19 in a population of 20.20 million (2020 est.) with 2,086,577 cumulative positive cases (reported on the NY State website). The cumulative deaths are 42,745 according to the state's number. Others have estimate a greater death toll. For example, the NY Times reports 2,102,003 positive cases cumulatively and 52,811 deaths, or more than 10,000 additional deaths. The state may be reporting 'confirmed' cases, while NY Times may include probable with confirmed cases.

[CODE title="Positive Covid-19 cases in NY State"] Date Cumulative New
Positive Pos.
5/28/21 2083911 870
5/29/21 2084696 785
5/30/21 2085190 494
5/31/21 2085581 391
6/1/21 2086012 431
6/2/21 2086577 565 [/CODE]

The numbers of new cases is declining, however deaths attributed to Covid-19 continue at a level of between 12 and 20 per day. The NY Times reports that 47% of the NY population is fully vaccinated.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/202...when-70-of-adults-have-at-least-one-dose.html

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown announced Friday that she’ll lift all capacity limits on restaurants, gyms, stadiums and other businesses and abolish mask requirements for even unvaccinated people in nearly all public settings when the state reaches 70% of its adults vaccinated against COVID-19 with at least one dose.That’s a mark the state could reach by June 24, according to an analysis by The Oregonian/OregonLive of current daily vaccination rates. The governor, however, initially provided no date for when she believes the state will receive this vaccination threshold.
...
The governor also will lift all physical distancing requirements statewide -- although, again, it’s unclear if special rules will remain in place for schools.

 

[.Scott]

In New Hampshire:
* I brought my daughter to a mass vaccination site to get her second Moderna shot on Wednesday. They were only doing second shots - drug stores will now be taking over. There were quite a few people there. So 12 days from now (14 days after her last shot), my household will be "fully vaccinated".
* The portion of people in NH that have had at least 1 shot is over 60%.
* The portion of people in NH that have become infected over the past 15 months is about 7%.
* The NH governor lifted almost all restrictions last month. Many, including myself, tended to continue wearing our masks. But I just visited the grocery store and most people are no longer wearing masks.
* The current infection rate ($R_e$) for NH is 0.63; for the county Hillsborough, where I live, it is 0.58.
* I live in a town of about 14,000. The number of active cases is approximately 1 - the actual reported range is 1-4, but there has only been 1 new case in the past 7 days.

I do notice that although Hillsborough County has a lower rate of vaccination than most counties, we have a lower infection rate ($R_e$). I suspect this is because we have a higher portion of the population (10%) that has already survived a COVID infection.

Except for the economic impacts, I'm definitely starting to feel as though this thing is over.

 

[bhobba]

They were only doing second shots - drug stores will now be taking over.

Here in Aus, they had the idea of getting GP's to do it. It's a good idea for many reasons, e.g. explaining risks etc. But what was found is despite GP clinics gearing up to do many vaccinations, many were only getting something like 50 doses a week. There was some distribution blockage. So now we are moving to mass vaccination hubs and eventually to chemists. You can still go to your doctor if you wish (it's what I did), but with the hubs, vaccination rates are increasing rapidly - from about 50k a day to well over 100k a day now. People still have some, how to put it, 'misconceptions', but the hubs are helping greatly. There are still distribution issues, but they are getting better. Now about 25% of the 20 million to be vaccinated are done, and fingers crossed, we can have everyone with a second dose by years end. The big question now is vaccine hesitancy which some put as high as 30%. Exactly what to do about that is still up in the air. I think they want to vaccinate everyone who wants it, then worry about those who do not. I have my own ideas on handling that, but we are a democracy and need to see exactly what develops.

Of course, here in Aus, like a couple of other countries such as Taiwan (was) and NZ, it is for all practical purposes eliminated. But every 'expert' I have heard speak on the matter lately says that only means we should vaccinate faster to make the most of our 'good fortune'. Interestingly it is different to when the vaccines first came out. Those same experts were saying we can take our time. My suspicion is Taiwan and Singapore scared the bejesus out of them:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57153195

Thanks
Bill

 

[.Scott]

Here in Aus, ...

I have been to Australia a couple of times. I was working on the building of the HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide.
I think Australia has a couple of things working in its favor:
1: Australians impressed me as being very safety-conscious. Or perhaps a better way of describing it is that they have a very low tolerance for anything unsafe.
2: I visited Sydney and Melbourne. In both cases, I did not find a lot of urban super-congestion - not the kind you find in London or New York.

So I'm a bit surprised about that 30%. It's similar to what was reported for my far more "reckless" country, the USA. Ultimately, it looked like education has a lot to do with it. Those areas of the US that are best educated are also the parts quickest to get vaccinated.

As far as herd immunity is concerned, it's all about that $R_e$ value. $R_e$ is certainly affected by the percent vaccinated and the percent already infected. But it is also affected by what precautions the population is willing to adopt (and can afford to adopt) in the long run - as a matter of routine.

It's not impossible that Australia is already at $R_e<0.99$. But in any case, I would certainly promote vaccinations.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Those areas of the US that are best educated are also the parts quickest to get vaccinated.

Well...sort of.

It depends on how you define "best educated".

If you look at HS diplomas, the correlation between that and the fraction of population who have received at least one dose is 0.1. (Everything in this post is R²) The whole country is in a very narrow range here, with California at the bottom at 84% and Wyoming at the top at 94%.

If you look at college graduates, the correlation is much larger, at 0.4.

If you look at people with advanced degrees, the correlation is smaller, at 0.3.

Unsurprisingly, the definition of "best educated" that makes the correlation largest is "people with bachelors degrees but not an advanced degree" which is almost 0.5.

If you look at population divided by area (which is not a great measure of population density - consider Alaska, where the populace actually lives quite close together) alone, and its correlation is 0.25. Note that population density and educational attainment correlate to 0.15 by themselves.

DC is an outlier. It has a population density of 10x the next highest, New Jersey, and an advanced degree attainment of 34%, far above Massachusetts 20%. Yet it has only a 57% vaccination rate, about the national average. I have removed it from any analysis involving population density.

If you do one giant regression, the most significant factor is population density, followed by fraction of college graduates, followed by the fraction with advanced degrees (which is negative) and fraction with a high school diploma is essentially a non-factor.

 

[.Scott]

Well...sort of.

It depends on how you define "best educated".

Actually, I was thinking Bachelors Degree.
I note that California and the Northeast are doing pretty well on vaccinations.
I also note that the deep south is doing quite poorly.

Part of the reason I didn't see the population density correlation is that it doesn't seem to hold within NH.
NH has 10 counties. The counties with the higher vaccination rates are Merrimack, Grafton and Carroll. The highest population densities are in Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Strafford. Only Coos county seems to follow the pattern - it is probably the lowest density and is has one of the lowest vaccination rates.

 

[pinball1970]

UK cases tripled in a couple of weeks. Not sure what was expected as lifting of restrictions co-incided with a new variant. Delta this time.
If things stay as they are we now have 59% vaccinated with the vast majority of those over 60, those most older and more likely to end up in ICU.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I also note that the deep south is doing quite poorly.

Sure, the deep south is doing less well. And it has relatively low educational attainment. But you know what else it has a lot of? Black folks. African-Americans are getting vaccinated at 3/4 the rate of the population as a whole. The mainstream media seems completely OK with this, but I see it as a problem - especially as mortality rates are higher among the African-American population than the country as a whole.

I think this also partially explains why DC is such an outlier. It's population is, to a good approximation, a mix of rich, well-educated whites and poor African-Americans. (Gentrification is changing that)

population density correlation is that it doesn't seem to hold within NH

If you, as you suggest, do not consider Coos County, the population density of NH varies by about a factor of 10. The 50 states vary by a factor 1000. (10000 if you include DC) So there isn't much lever arm. It also have a very low fraction of African-Americans.

 

[.Scott]

But you know what else it has a lot of? Black folks. African-Americans are getting vaccinated at 3/4 the rate of the population as a whole.

Hmmm. The reports are that blacks are not getting vaccinated at the same rates as whites - and since there are so few blacks in NH, I shouldn't expect NH stats to follow the same patterns.

I've worked with blacks before. I'm really at a loss for how to recruit them for vaccinations.

 

[bhobba]

So I'm a bit surprised about that 30%.

When the vaccine was first available in Aus, there was virtually no hesitancy. There were bookings 6 months in advance to get it. The hesitancy started when the infrequent clotting events with the main vaccine we are using, AZ, came to light. People are out of proportion fearful of the minute risk. This is despite picking up about twice as many clotting cases as other countries using AZ, but the death rate is 4% instead of 20%. Because doctors are on the lookout for it, they treat it promptly. I think I mentioned in another post I did a back of the envelope calculation that showed the risk is about the same as dying while driving to the doctors to get the vaccine. But in discussing that with people, believe me, it does not wash. You get replies like you are just glib.

At one stage, I worked with people from the US and gleaned a lot about their character, education system etc., which is different from Aus. Yes, Australians, in general, take less risk, are more safety conscious, as you say. There is less distrust of government decisions. While both are free democratic countries with many common values, here, democracy is king. You can do virtually anything democratically in Aus, eg. dismiss governments (via the Governor-General who is appointed by the Queen on recommendation by Parlement), mandate gun laws etc. In the US, your constitution puts limits on that. Our high court has ruled free speech derives from democracy rather than being a right in itself. Interestingly nobody worried about it for many years - it was only in the 90's they were asked to rule on it. It is not better or worse than the US - just different. It reflects a different culture. Aus has the culture of the battler. Winning is important, and the passion we have for that in sport is legend, but striving and battling even against insurmountable odds is seen as the pinnacle. The US has, from our point of view, American exceptionalism. Aus is more egatitrian. Interestingly, as has been demonstrated several times, Australia will always put up its hand if ever the US needs an ally. Our Prime Minister was in the US when 9-11 happened. Immediately the PM contacted President Bush and said Australia is invoking the Ansus treaty (even though it did not apply) and we will give the US whatever aid we can. When asked about this, our PM said the Australian public would expect no less.

Our current R0 is much less than 1. But as Singapore and Taiwan showed, if complacency sets in, that can change very quickly. This is why to get vaccinated quickly is now the line being pushed. Before the urgency was not as prevalent even though initially bookings quickly filled up. I believe we will all be vaccinated by years end - just two months behind what was originally planned. What we do about hesitancy will then need sorting out.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

UK cases tripled in a couple of weeks. Not sure what was expected as lifting of restrictions co-incided with a new variant. Delta this time.

Complacency seems to be an issue in a lot of places. I know governments are under a lot of pressure to get back to normal as soon as possible, which likely explains it. Here the media all the time is 'bleating' lockdowns, and other rules are destroying our economy. They are right. We must open up or face the consequences. Australians, and by a huge margin, despite the media 'blitz', would rather face the economic consequences. Already our pandemic debt per person is by a long way the largest in the world. Largely Australians are saying - I do not care - we will face that one once the pandemic is under control. Interesting Australian psychological phenomena. My view is we are doing the right thing - human life is worth more than trillions in debt - just my view - it does not make it right.

Thanks
Bill

 

[pinball1970]

Complacency seems to be an issue in a lot of places. I know governments are under a lot of pressure to get back to normal as soon as possible, which likely explains it. Here the media all the time is 'bleating' lockdowns, and other rules are destroying our economy. They are right. We must open up or face the consequences. Australians, and by a huge margin, despite the media 'blitz', would rather face the economic consequences. Already our pandemic debt per person is by a long way the largest in the world. Largely Australians are saying - I do not care - we will face that one once the pandemic is under control. Interesting Australian psychological phenomena. My view is we are doing the right thing - human life is worth more than trillions in debt - just my view - it does not make it right.

Thanks
Bill

It's frustrating, it is possible to function well enough whilst being careful.
Most places are open, people can get to work, use the bus and train.
There are still lots of idiots who don't wear masks when they should in public places, supermarkets.
The economy could be getting back on its feet with cases declining if people would just put a bit of effort in.

 

[bhobba]

The economy could be getting back on its feet with cases declining if people would just put a bit of effort in.

Interestingly our economy has bounced back gangbusters. It is just the huge debt while going through the worst of the pandemic. And even more strangely, because their record is not good, this is exactly what most economists predicted. Huge debt, but a big bounceback. Wierd.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Oh no. Just when I thought Australians were starting to really take vaccination seriously and the government had fixed bureaucratic issues, the local paper had the following story. It is behind a paywall, so I will just post a precis.

'Looming expiration dates and the Victorian outbreak have driven this weekend’s massive inoculation drive targeting 15,000 people, as Queensland ramps up its ability to put jabs in arms. The health minister said she didn’t want to waste a single drop of “liquid gold”. She revealed some batches had to be thrown away after supply-chain mistakes had meant deliveries were made to wrong addresses or allowed to thaw. As she said (again a precis):

“I don’t know if they’ve all been that big, but we’ve certainly had stock lost before in transit – lost as in it hasn’t been viable when it’s been provided to us. It’s either been delivered at the wrong address or delivered out of hours and left, so it wasn’t refrigerated straight away. They’ll say they’re delivering it this day and then turn up the night before when it’s not able to be stored immediately. Some of the new arrivals still have a short expiry date, so we are getting stock that has a shorter lifespan than what we had earlier in the year, which means we have to use it quickly.'

It says it all. So exasperating.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Dale]

My view is we are doing the right thing - human life is worth more than trillions in debt - just my view - it does not make it right.

It is interesting that you can actually put a dollar value on the price people actually value a human life. You can do that by examining how much of a premium people are willing to pay for antilock brakes and airbags and taxes for the food and drug administration, and environmental remediation efforts, etc. Then you calculate from those myriad small payments the actual reduction in the risk of death. You then normalize to one life saved and that becomes the “statistical value of life”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life

Last time I looked that was about 10 million USD. We lost about 600 k people, so by our usual valuation we should have been willing to pay 6 trillion USD to prevent those deaths.

Of course, for such a novel disease it is hard to estimate how many lives would have been lost if protection measures had not been taken. So it is unclear to me if our response to COVID has increased or decreased our actual statistical value of life.

 

[russ_watters]

Already our pandemic debt per person is by a long way the largest in the world.

Do you have a source for that, and what does that mean? Is that government spending per person?

 

[bhobba]

Do you have a source for that, and what does that mean? Is that government spending per person?

I have to retract that. Qatar did pip us. Australia is, however, the highest rate of all advanced economies.

From the Australian Financial Review:

Australia outspent every other country - except Qatar - with the government's $214 billion fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a new analysis found.

Australia is spending 10.6 per cent of GDP in direct fiscal stimulus, including the JobKeeper wage subsidy and cash handouts to households and business. That was the highest rate of all advanced economies.

BIS Oxford Economics ranked 46 countries that combined have announced more than $US8 trillion ($13 trillion) in stimulus measures in response to COVID-19. Qatar ranked first with 13 per cent of GDP and Thailand third with 8.9 per cent of GDP.

The main area of spending was supporting peoples wages via Jobkeeper.

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

Last time I looked that was about 10 million USD. We lost about 600 k people, so by our usual valuation we should have been willing to pay 6 trillion USD to prevent those deaths.

Of course, for such a novel disease it is hard to estimate how many lives would have been lost if protection measures had not been taken. So it is unclear to me if our response to COVID has increased or decreased our actual statistical value of life.

It will be interesting to see what the economists come up with regarding the total cost of the mitigation efforts. Tallying government spending is easy. Figuring the economic loss to the economy will be harder.

 

[Dale]

It will be interesting to see what the economists come up with regarding the total cost of the mitigation efforts. Tallying government spending is easy. Figuring the economic loss to the economy will be harder.

Yes, and even after estimating all of the costs it will be difficult to estimate the lives actually saved as a result of the efforts. So any major change in the value should be taken with a healthy degree of skepticism, I think.

 

[russ_watters]

See:
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/...e-the-world-s-biggest-bar-one-20200506-p54qdc

Australia outspent every other country - except Qatar - with the government's $214 billion fiscal response to COVID-19 pandemic, a new analysis found.

In direct fiscal stimulus, Australia is spending 10.6 per cent of GDP...

That's a year old and behind a paywall. Can you quote some background as to what it includes? Is that direct federal stimulus only? Do you have anything more recent? The US so far has spent 15% of GDP on federal stimulus alone.
https://www.usaspending.gov/disaster/covid-19

That includes neither state direct spending nor economic loss due to the mitigation efforts.

 

[bhobba]

That's a year old and behind a paywall. Can you quote some background as to what it includes? Is that direct federal stimulus only? Do you have anything more recent? The US so far has spent 15% of GDP on federal stimulus alone.
https://www.usaspending.gov/disaster/covid-19

That includes neither state direct spending nor economic loss due to the mitigation efforts.

Posted the relevant bits. But yes, that was a while ago now. Jobkeeper paid, from the commonwealth government, peoples wages during the worst of the pandemic to stop employers from collapsing. That has recently stopped, so it would be better to say that we spent up big during the worst of the pandemic. The most recent on the current situation I could find was:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ernment-spent-twice-Covid-19-stimulus-UK.html

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

The most recent on the current situation I could find was:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ernment-spent-twice-Covid-19-stimulus-UK.html

Ok, thanks -- so at the very least your claim (as of more recently) was way wrong; per your source's source, Australia was middle of the pack in a group of 14 nations as of November. The original source is here (source's source's source?), updated through May 7:
http://web.boun.edu.tr/elgin/COVID.htm

It looks like there was an original April 2020 paper and then the author has continued to update the data. A few sample countries from the most recent dataset:

• Japan: 55% (highest of any country)
• USA: 27%
• Germany: 20%
• Italy: 19.3%
• Australia: 17.1%
• France: 16.8%
• UK: 11.8%

Also, I haven't read the paper yet and the dataset doesn't have descriptions, but this appears to include direct federal stimulus money only. There's also automatic financial support that happens on its own (normal unemployment compensation, welfare/food assistance, etc.) which I don't think is counted in that. And while I'm not sure about other countries, due to the multi-layers of US government, a lot if not most of our spending was at the state(s) level, not the federal level. Though much of that was pass-through so it shouldn't be double-counted.

[late edit] Also, you mentioned this in the context of "value of a human life", but most of this spending has nothing directly to do with saving lives. Most of the spending is economic stimulus.

 

[bhobba]

Ok, thanks -- so at the very least your claim (as of more recently) was way wrong;

Yes indeed. Things had moved on since a year ago when news media splashed this all over the Australian media. My bad for not checking the latest information.

What they did in Aus is combine unemployment benefits and similar payments into what was called Jobkeeper. That got paid to your employer to keep you employed while the business was struggling:
https://www.ato.gov.au/General/JobKeeper-Payment/Payment-rates/Paying-your-eligible-employees/

Interestingly, many employees got paid more than their normal wage. When asked to come to work, this created some 'interesting' discussions between employer and employee.

But payments stopped on March 28, which obviously changed the amount of money Australia was spending. We have a robust economic recovery, but unemployment issues remain:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04...b-spurt-we-are-still-above-capacity/100062098

Interesting, isn't it? There is fruit going to waste because nobody wants the job of picking it - yet there is significant youth unemployment:
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/newsradio/concerns-grow-as-qld-strawberry-farmers-struggle/13241396

Not a simple issue at all.

Things are getting pretty bad in Melbourne, and there is a push to keep it locked down and reinstate Jobkeeper. But I will do a separate post about that - the article is not behind a paywall as it is considered public interest. I often can't tell because I subscribe to my local paper, which gives me free access to many news stories from other sources.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Things are getting pretty bad in Melbourne:
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/victoria/mystery-cluster-halts-hopes-of-early-easing-of-lockdown/news-story/f94d12157769d54bbadcff4f355d0ada?utm_source=CourierMail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=CM_LATESTNEWS_BREAKING-CUR_01&net_sub_id=285783538&type=curated&position=1&overallPos=1

Would you continue the lockdown? Would you reinstate Jobkeeper? I personally would, but as a democracy, it is not my decision to make. Keep in mind the media is publishing many stories of the economic hardship many businesses are suffering. Many say without Jobkeeper, they will go under.

Thanks
Bill

 

[AlexCaledin]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603201045.htm

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Sure, the deep south is doing less well. And it has relatively low educational attainment. But you know what else it has a lot of? Black folks. African-Americans are getting vaccinated at 3/4 the rate of the population as a whole. The mainstream media seems completely OK with this, but I see it as a problem - especially as mortality rates are higher among the African-American population than the country as a whole.

I don't think it's true to claim that the "mainstream media" seems completely OK with this. For example, here are some articles in various news outlets on the issue:

NYTimes:
Pandemic’s Racial Disparities Persist in Vaccine Rollout
They Haven’t Gotten a Covid Vaccine Yet. But They Aren’t ‘Hesitant’ Either.

NPR:
Why Black And Latino People Still Lag On COVID Vaccines — And How To Fix It

Chicago Tribune:
Column: Separate and unequal: Lagging COVID-19 vaccine rates among Blacks and Latinos are a symptom of America’s chronic health problem

Washington Post:
Opinion: White Americans are being vaccinated at higher rates than Black Americans. Such inequity cannot stand.

This issue is also not being ignored by policy makers. For example, the Biden administration has put forward steps to help increase vaccine access, for example partnering with rideshare companies to provide free rides to vaccine sites. Similarly, local governments are also trying to address the issue. For example, in the City of Chicago has a page on vaccine equity which outlines the city's plans on how "to ensure that vaccine reaches the individuals and communities most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially Black and Latinx residents" (exactly the issue you raise in your post). Local community groups are also making efforts to address the issue, for example, going door-to-door to promote vaccination in Black Chicago neighborhoods.

Whether these efforts has been successful is not something I've studied yet, but certainly many news organizations and policy makers do see lagging vaccination rates among Black, Latinx and poorer communities as a problem.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603201045.htm

Here's the article cited in the press release:

Establishing the prevalence of common tissue-specific autoantibodies following SARS CoV-2 infection
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cei.13623

The results are similar to findings published earlier that also found autoantibodies in patients with COVID-19.

Diverse Functional Autoantibodies in Patients with COVID-19
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03631-y

Popular press summary: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00149-1

See also these earlier PF threads on the topic:
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/flawed-interferon-response-spurs-severe-covid-19.994080/
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-and-auto-antibodies.996024/

 

[PeroK]

Re vaccination by ethnic groups, there is the same pattern in the UK:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

The headline is that the white population vaccination rates are 89% (50-54 age group) to 97% (80+). Whereas, for the black population it's 62% (50-54) to 76% (80+). Which is pretty stark.

 

[Astronuc]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

A family member, who is a pediatrician and family doctor, is seeing this in patients, even teenagers. Apparently there is a large scale study on this, but I don't know the details. There is a concern about young folks developing comorbidities.

 

[russ_watters]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603201045.htm

Thanks for that - I have a dermatological issue that flared up after getting my 2nd Pfizer dose. I'll discuss with my dermatologist.

 

[.Scott]

Thanks for that - I have a dermatological issue that flared up after getting my 2nd Pfizer dose. I'll discuss with my dermatologist.

The issue is with people who have contracted COVID-19, not people who have become vaccinated.
Also, what the study is finding is auto-antibodies - which may presumably have a potential to lead to auto-immune disease.

But there are a couple of things that caught my attention:
1) They were contrasting the COVID group with "control groups of convenience". The control groups were not created through randomized selection. So it could be that a COVID infection is a brutal way of detecting auto-antibodies.
2) The portion of people in the "control groups" was very high. I had not realized that auto-antibodies were so common.

 

[bhobba]

which may presumably have a potential to lead to auto-immune disease.

Psoriatic Arthritis (PA) is more common than many think:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/psoriatic-arthritis/

Seeing a dermatologist if you have skin problems and possibly an increased risk of auto-immune disease may be a good idea. If you do have it, the earlier treatment starts with the new Biologics like Cosentyx, the better the likely outcome. I started too late, and it ravaged my body, especially my knees. My sister caught it early, and it is now in remission, but instead of PA, she now has Fibromyalgia. She can't say which is worse.

Thanks
Bill

 

[.Scott]

The State of New Hampshire just published its daily COVID numbers - for June 8. Pelham (my town) has a population of about 14,000 ... with zero active cases of COVID-19.

BTW: Since the start of the year, property prices have been soaring in NH. Apparently, this "Live Free or Die" state with minimal COVID restrictions (no restrictions now), mostly 1+ acre lots, and good success with COVID (hospital beds needed to be managed - but we never came close to running out) is attracting people from more congested or regulated regions.

 

[atyy]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/india-elephants-tested-for-covid-19-after-lion-dies-14980006
Elephants in India tested for COVID-19 after rare lion's death

"In what is believed to be the first known death of an animal in India from the coronavirus, a nine-year-old lioness at a zoo in Chennai in Tamil Nadu state died in early June, local media reported.

The feline was among nine lions that had tested positive for the virus, including two who were in critical condition, Chennai's the New Indian Express newspaper reported last week.

...

The animals' handlers lifted their trunks to collect a sample from a nostril, according to video shared by the reserve. They also inserted swabs into the elephants' rectums.

...,.

"There was no difficulty in taking the sample swabs themselves as these are all trained elephants.""

 

[chemisttree]

"There was no difficulty in taking the sample swabs themselves as these are all trained elephants.""

I’ll file that trainer job under, “You couldn’t pay me enough”

 

[Jarvis323]

Study links Covid-19 to dementia.

https://alzres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13195-021-00850-3

Seems like Covid-19 is turning out to be a whole lot worse than people have thought with all of non-immediately lethal effects it's causing for survirvors.

 

[morrobay]

Study links Covid-19 to dementia.

https://alzres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13195-021-00850-3

Seems like Covid-19 is turning out to be a whole lot worse than people have thought with all of non-immediately lethal effects it's causing for survirvors.

Maybe I missed actual numbers in their 236000 cohort of " survivors who required hospitalization" And in the 73000 cohort with "various incidents" Also they state that those with pre existing Alzheimer's have increased risk. This is not only report where relevant factors seem to be passed over.

 

[Astronuc]

In China’s latest outbreak, doctors say the infected get sicker, faster.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/china-covid-delta-variant-guangzhou.html

As the Delta variant of the Coronavirus spreads in southeastern China, doctors say they are finding that the symptoms are different and more dangerous than those they saw when the initial version of the virus started spreading in late 2019 in the central city of Wuhan.

Patients are becoming sicker and their conditions are worsening much more quickly, doctors told state-run television on Thursday and Friday. Four-fifths of symptomatic cases developed fevers, they said, although it was not clear how that compared with earlier cases. The virus concentrations that are detected in their bodies climb to levels higher than previously seen, and then decline only slowly, the doctors said.

The city of Guangzhou is where the outbreak has been centered as opposed to the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, the location of the original outbreak.

The Chinese authorities have not indicated how many of the new infections have occurred in people who had been vaccinated. In some other countries where Chinese-made vaccines are in wide use, including the Seychelles and Mongolia, infections among vaccinated people are rising, although few patients have reportedly developed serious illness.

And apparently, Moscow has ordered a shutdown as a wave of new cases develops in Russia.

 

[bhobba]

Seems like Covid-19 is turning out to be a whole lot worse than people have thought with all of non-immediately lethal effects it's causing for survirvors.

Yes. Again the out is the vaccine - we must all be vaccinated.

Thanks
Bill

 

[chemisttree]

Any news regarding the infection rate among non-Chinese vaccine vaccinated? I wonder what the delta infection rate would be for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccinated?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Any news regarding the infection rate among non-Chinese vaccine vaccinated? I wonder what the delta infection rate would be for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccinated?

Preliminary data from Public Health England suggests 88% effeciveness of the Pfizer vaccine against B.1.617.2 (delta) vs 93% effectiveness against B.1.1.7 (alpha).

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant
https://khub.net/documents/13593956...iant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42

Abstract

Background The B.1.617.2 COVID-19 variant has contributed to the surge in cases in India and has now been detected across the globe, including a notable increase in cases in the UK. We estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines against this variant.

Methods A test negative case control design was used to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination against symptomatic disease with both variants over the period that B.1.617.2 began circulating with cases identified based on sequencing and S-gene target status. Data on all symptomatic sequenced cases of COVID-19 in England was used to estimate the proportion of cases with B.1.617.2 compared to the predominant strain (B.1.1.7) by vaccination status.

Results Effectiveness was notably lower after 1 dose of vaccine with B.1.617.2 cases 33.5% (95%CI: 20.6 to 44.3) compared to B.1.1.7 cases 51.1% (95%CI: 47.3 to 54.7) with similar results for both vaccines. With BNT162b2 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 93.4% (95%CI: 90.4 to 95.5) with B.1.1.7 to 87.9% (95%CI: 78.2 to 93.2) with B.1.617.2. With ChAdOx1 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 66.1% (95% CI: 54.0 to 75.0) with B.1.1.7 to 59.8% (95%CI: 28.9 to 77.3) with B.1.617.2. Sequenced cases detected after 1 or 2 doses of vaccination had higher odds of infection with B.1.617.2 compared to unvaccinated cases (OR 1.40; 95%CI: 1.13-1.75).

Conclusions After 2 doses of either vaccine there were only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness with the B.1.617.2 variant. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked with dose 1. This would support maximising vaccine uptake with 2 doses among vulnerable groups.

Popular press summary: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346