COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

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Containment efforts for the COVID-19 Coronavirus are facing significant challenges, with experts suggesting that it may no longer be feasible to prevent its global spread. The virus has a mortality rate of approximately 2-3%, which could lead to a substantial increase in deaths if it becomes as widespread as the flu. Current data indicates around 6,000 cases, with low mortality rates in areas with good healthcare. Vaccine development is underway, but it is unlikely to be ready in time for the current outbreak, highlighting the urgency of the situation. As the outbreak evolves, the healthcare system may face considerable strain, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and response efforts.
  • #3,061
bob012345 said:
Is it just me or is anyone else alarmed by so called gain-of-function research on dangerous viruses? This is the practice of taking a virus, such as the bird flu and making it more transmittable to humans for the purpose of researching cures and vaccines in the event that virus ever naturally mutates and gets into the human population. I mentioned bird flu because that was debated and defended by prominent scientists a decade ago with references below.

https://osp.od.nih.gov/biotechnology/gain-of-function-research/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...worth-taking/2011/12/30/gIQAM9sNRP_story.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-16279365

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201...iments-make-bird-flu-more-risky-poised-resume

Relevant to the current crisis is the fact that NIH funded and NIAID administered gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and elsewhere using SARS-CoV-2. Basically, we paid them to make it much easier to transmit to humans for research purposes. Here is the NIH funding for EcoHealth Alliance, the organization that funnels NIH money to labs around the world.

https://projectreporter.nih.gov/reporter_SearchResults.cfm?icde=50081038

Notice this statement from the sixth project title down;

Speaking of SARSr-CoVs,;

"We will use S protein sequence data, infectious clone technology, in vitro and in vivo infection experiments and analysis of receptor binding to test the hypothesis that % divergence thresholds in S protein sequences predict spillover potential."

Note that I made no claims that this research was the cause of the pandemic. But representatives of 122 nations just demanded that the actual source of the virus be vigorously investigated.

Here is a good video on the topic. Two leading experts give presentations: the first, Marc Lipsitch (Harvard), makes the case against gain of function research, and the second, Derek Smith (Cambridge), makes the case for it.



Regardless if gain of function research at WIV contributed to the outbreak of sars-cov-2, the current pandemic has at least put this topic into public view. I think it's a very important topic that needs to be more widely discussed.

I agree with Marc Lipsitch, that it's not worth the risks. People are not reliable enough to trust with manipulating, creating, and testing dangerous viruses. It seems pretty clear that scientists don't fully understand the risks, but a worst case event/accident can be catastrophic (similar or much worse than what is happening now). Basically, a single screw up at a lab could result in millions of deaths, and bring a new deadly viruse into the world that may never go away. People are constantly screwing everything up.
 
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  • #3,062
What is the medical definition of "Second Wave"?
 
  • #3,063
To truly learn from this pandemic, we must understand why pandemics occur? And how can we prevent a recurrence?
 
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  • #3,064
mfb said:
Good, because that claim would be foolish.Why put this completely unrelated point next to the other one?
While it would be foolish at this point to make such an absolute claim, it would not be foolish to consider that possibility. Let's put this in physics terms. Gain-of-function research farmed out to labs in countries not yet up to level 4 CDC standards is like making nuclear weapons at an insecure facility in Turkey. There is a decent chance a few might go missing. And even in level 4 U.S. labs it's risky. The upside is you might learn something that might be relevant if nature produced a crossover with a sufficiently similar genetic code at some point in the future. The downside is a global pandemic with hundreds of thousands of deaths plunging the world economy into deep depression.

Let's consider the coincidence here. The whole point of doing gain-of-function research is to accelerate nature that might take eons to do the same thing. So, Peter Daszak through EcoHealth Alliance decides to push to do that. Then suddenly, out of the blue, and in a similar timeframe, a pandemic emerges with an incredible ability to be transmittable to humans, even a weird 14 day incubation period where its highly contagious well before symptoms even appear if ever. And yet we are told the possibility of that virus escaping from a lab is impossible and that it must have been a purely natural occurrence. Can you imagine the fallout if it was concluded that the pandemic was caused by the accidental release of a virus after gain-of-function experiments paid for the the NIH? Interestingly, the experts telling us that have a vested interest in not being seen as being in any way responsible for the pandemic. We may be looking at the Chinese version of Chernobyl with the U.S. implicated too.

I included that disclaimer because I can't prove that scenario happened but I'm certainly suspicious that is one possibility and it's entirely related to the demand by the U.N. representatives to find out what really happened.
 
  • #3,065
bob012345 said:
So, Peter Daszak through EcoHealth Alliance decides to push to do that. Then suddenly, out of the blue, and in a similar timeframe, a pandemic emerges with an incredible ability to be transmittable to humans, even a weird 14 day incubation period where its highly contagious well before symptoms even appear if ever. And yet we are told the possibility of that virus escaping from a lab is impossible and that it must have been a purely natural occurrence.

Following your hypothesis that this started in Peter Daszak's lab, why did the outbreak begin in Wuhan?
 
  • #3,066
PeroK said:
Following your hypothesis that this started in Peter Daszak's lab, why did the outbreak begin in Wuhan?

Dr. Peter Daszak heads the EcoHealth Alliance as president which is a organization dedicated to "prevent pandemics" and that includes funding labs studying bat viruses and includes gain-of-function experiments. They received grants from NIH administered through NIAID (Dr. Fauci) and channeled the money to various labs including Wuhan. Daszak doesn't personally do the research in his own lab. He receives grants and funds research. Dr. Fauci is a supporter of gain-of-function research.

https://www.ecohealthalliance.org

Here is the mission statement;

"EcoHealth Alliance is an international nonprofit dedicated to a 'One Health' approach to protecting the health of people, animals and the environment from emerging infectious diseases. The organization formed with the merger of two highly respected organizations, Wildlife Trust and the Consortium for Conservation Medicine. The urgent concern for wildlife conservation and the overall health of our planet has led EcoHealth Alliance to become an environmental science and public health leader working to prevent pandemics in global hotspot regions across the globe and to promote conservation."

It may very well turn out that EcoHealth Alliance are among the heros in all this mess but when people promote potentially risky research with deadly viruses we shouldn't just give them a pass without even being allowed to legitimately ask questions.
 
  • #3,067
bob012345 said:
Dr. Peter Daszak heads the EcoHealth Alliance as president which is a organization dedicated to "prevent pandemics" and that includes funding labs studying bat viruses and includes gain-of-function experiments. They received grants from NIH administered through NIAID (Dr. Fauci) and channeled the money to various labs including Wuhan.

I don't imagine anyone outside the Chinese Communist Party has much influence on what goes on in a lab in Wuhan.
 
  • #3,068
PeroK said:
I don't imagine anyone outside the Chinese Communist Party has much influence on what goes on in a lab in Wuhan.
As I understand it, EcoHealth Alliance gave the Wuhan lab $600k for the purpose of doing experiments on bat viruses including gain-of-function experiments. Free money from the U.S. to do experiments they wanted to do anyway. I find it interesting that the money doesn't come directly from NIH but through an intermediary non-profit. Perhaps that gives the NIH some deniability if outside labs don't follow strict protocols? Obviously, the CCP approved of the work but then when Wuhan scientists started speaking out about the virus breaking out into the human population (whether naturally or by accident), they were silenced.
 
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  • #3,069
bob012345 said:
As I understand it, EcoHealth Alliance gave the Wuhan lab $600k for the purpose of doing experiments on bat viruses including gain-of-function experiments. Free money from the U.S. to do experiments they wanted to do anyway. I find it interesting that the money doesn't come directly from NIH but through an intermediary non-profit. Perhaps that gives the NIH some deniability if outside labs don't follow strict protocols? Obviously, the CCP approved of the work but then when Wuhan scientists started speaking out about the virus breaking out into the human population (whether naturally or by accident), they were silenced.

I found this:

https://www.ft.com/content/255a3524-0459-4724-a92a-58268ab627e2
 
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  • #3,070
FINDINGS FROM INVESTIGATION AND ANALYSIS OF RE-POSITIVE CASES

○ Based on active monitoring, epidemiological investigation, and laboratory testing of re-positive cases and their contacts, no evidence was found that indicated infectivity of re-positive cases.

- Of the 447 re-positive cases as of 15 May, epidemiological investigation was conducted on 285 cases and laboratory analysis on 108 cases. (*473 as of 18 May)

- From monitoring of 790 contacts of the 285 re-positive cases, no case was found that was newly infected solely from contact with re-positive cases during re-positive period.

- Virus isolation in cell culture of respiratory samples of 108 re-positive cases, all result was negative (i.e. virus not isolated).

- Of the 23 re-positive cases from which the first and the second serum samples were obtained, 96% were positive for neutralizing antibodies.
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
 
  • #3,071
PeroK said:
It has several denials of the possibility the virus came from the Wuhan lab. Why are they so certain this early? Statements such as this;

"Edward Holmes, an Australian virologist who helped map and share the genetic sequence of the virus, said there was “no evidence” that Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19 in humans, originated in a Wuhan laboratory."

I'm glad the "no evidence" was in quotes because I've seen the logic explained as because the sequence that makes it very effective could not be predicted a priori by computer, it must have been natural. But there are other ways of putting enhancements into the virus without artificial engineering such as using gene editing techniques with naturally occurring sequences. In other words, those claiming "no evidence" may well be parsing subtle distinctions about what is considered natural and what is considered man made that the public wouldn't appreciate.

Also, "no evidence" doesn't mean it didn't happen. It means one doesn't have the evidence at hand to prove it happened. It's far too early to know.

Fauci says he is “very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated”. He would have to say that or admit he funded research that led to the pandemic.

The article seems to imply the Sars-Cov-2 wasn't even at the Wuhan lab.

This Livescience article also makes that claim but discusses a scenario at the end that researchers may have unknowingly had sars-cov-2 or a precursor virus in the lab samples and even enhanced it by genetic selection as a byproduct of other work. It ends with an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-complicated-origins.html

But then there is this;

WIV was not immune to those concerns. In 2018, after scientist diplomats from the U.S. embassy in Beijing visited the WIV, they were so concerned by the lack of safety and management at the lab that the diplomats sent two official warnings back to the U.S. One of the official cables, obtained by The Washington Post, suggested that the lab's work on bat coronaviruses with the potential for human transmission could risk causing a new SARS-like pandemic, Post columnist Josh Rogin wrote.
 
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  • #3,072
bob012345 said:
Let's consider the coincidence here.
Said the lottery winner to argue that something else must have played a role.
If you look hard enough you'll always find coincidences somewhere. Omit everything that doesn't fit, add some misinformation that was shared online, brew everything together, and you get a completely wrong conclusion.

Can we get back to containment efforts (the topic of this thread)?

One more case in Iceland on Tuesday, a week after the previous case.
 
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  • #3,073
mfb said:
Said the lottery winner to argue that something else must have played a role.
If you look hard enough you'll always find coincidences somewhere. Omit everything that doesn't fit, add some misinformation that was shared online, brew everything together, and you get a completely wrong conclusion.

Can we get back to containment efforts (the topic of this thread)?

One more case in Iceland on Tuesday, a week after the previous case.
Perhaps I should have started a new thread but I wasn't sure if there would be enough interest.

Here's my take on containment. Stop federal funding of dangerous experiments that could possibly lead to catastrophic pandemics and ban outright all gain-of-function experiments. Take a flamethrower to the bat caves and wet markets where this virus came from.
 
  • #3,074
bob012345 said:
Speaking of SARSr-CoVs,;

"We will use S protein sequence data, infectious clone technology, in vitro and in vivo infection experiments and analysis of receptor binding to test the hypothesis that % divergence thresholds in S protein sequences predict spillover potential."

The experiments proposed in this grant would likely not pose the risk of releasing a new pandemic strain of coronavirus. Speaking as someone who has worked in labs that study RNA viruses, there are ways to perform these studies in a safe manner. To study how mutations in the spike protein affect cell entry, scientists create something called a pseudotyped virus. This is essentially taking the spike protein from the coronaviruses that you'd like to study, and putting it on the outside of what is essentially a harmless virus shell. Typically, researchers use lentiviral vectors, which are derived from HIV. These viruses have been extensively modified to prevent them from being able to reproduce, so once the virus enters the cell, it cannot make new copies of itself (see the Addgene link above for more details). This technology is routinely used in many biomedical research labs to introduce foreign genes into cells. These types of experiments using pseudotyped viruses have been done with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in many published studies (for example, studying which antibodies are able to bind the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to prevent viral entry). So, this one sentence does not necessarily mean that the researchers were engaged in dangerous gain of function experiments.

Newsweek, however, does report that gain of function studies on bat coronaviruses did occur at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. They write:
The Institute began a program of gain-of-function research into bat coronaviruses in 2015. That involved taking selected strains and seeking to increase the ability of those viruses to transmit from one person to another. The gain-of-function research went hand-in-hand with the surveillance project. As scientists identified new classes of bat viruses that have the ability to infect human cells, that raised the question of what changes would have to arise in nature to make that virus transmissible in humans, which would pose a pandemic threat.

In 2015, the Wuhan lab performed a gain of function experiment using cut-and-paste genetic engineering, in which scientists take a natural virus and directly make substitutions in its RNA coding to make it more transmissible. They took a piece of the original SARS virus and inserted a snippet from a SARS-like bat coronavirus, resulting in a virus that is capable of infecting human cells. A natural virus altered with these methods would be easily flagged in a genetic analysis, like a contemporary addition to an old Victorian house.

The article seems to be referring to this 2015 publication in Nature Medicine. As the Newsweek article notes, genetic analysis of the viral RNA would easily spot a virus generated through such gain of function studies, and the SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequence does not show signs of being manipulated in these ways.

The Newsweek article discusses the possibility that the virus could have evolved through passaging of the virus in laboratory conditions, which could adapt a bat virus to be more transmissible in human cells. Again, genetic analysis of the viral RNA has identified various genetic features of the virus that enable its transmissibility in humans. One feature are a set of mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein that help the spike protein bind to the human ACE2 receptor more strongly. These mutations are similar to mutations found in a Pangolin coronavirus, so these mutations were likely introduced naturally into the progenitor bat Coronavirus through recombination. The other feature is a polybasic furin cleavage site within the spike protein, which is not found in other related coronaviruses. It is certainly possible for such sites to evolve naturally, as many other viruses have evolved furin sites in their extracellular proteins (including the MERS coronavirus), though the exact origins of the SARS-CoV-2 furin site remains unknown. While evolution of furin cleavage sites has been observed in laboratory passage of influenza virus, the SARS-CoV-2 sequence has other features (such as the introduction of a glycosylation site) that would not be expected to be selected for during passage in cultured cells, which would disfavor the laboratory passage hypothesis over a natural origin.

While the exact origins of the virus aren't known (and may never be known), most of the existing evidence supports a natural origin over an accidental release hypothesis. Indeed, we know of many new viruses that have jumped from animals to humans (e.g. HIV, ebola, swine flu, avian flu, Zika virus), including two new coronaviruses that have emerged within the past two decades (the original SARS and MERS). Ultimately, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. While we can't disprove the hypothesis that the virus escaped from a lab, I have not seen any compelling evidence to favor the laboratory escape hypothesis over a natural, zoonotic origin of the virus.
 
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  • #3,075
Ygggdrasil said:
The experiments proposed in this grant would likely not pose the risk of releasing a new pandemic strain of coronavirus. Speaking as someone who has worked in labs that study RNA viruses, there are ways to perform these studies in a safe manner. To study how mutations in the spike protein affect cell entry, scientists create something called a pseudotyped virus. This is essentially taking the spike protein from the coronaviruses that you'd like to study, and putting it on the outside of what is essentially a harmless virus shell. Typically, researchers use lentiviral vectors, which are derived from HIV. These viruses have been extensively modified to prevent them from being able to reproduce, so once the virus enters the cell, it cannot make new copies of itself (see the Addgene link above for more details). This technology is routinely used in many biomedical research labs to introduce foreign genes into cells. These types of experiments using pseudotyped viruses have been done with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in many published studies (for example, studying which antibodies are able to bind the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to prevent viral entry). So, this one sentence does not necessarily mean that the researchers were engaged in dangerous gain of function experiments.

Newsweek, however, does report that gain of function studies on bat coronaviruses did occur at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. They write:The article seems to be referring to this 2015 publication in Nature Medicine. As the Newsweek article notes, genetic analysis of the viral RNA would easily spot a virus generated through such gain of function studies, and the SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequence does not show signs of being manipulated in these ways.

The Newsweek article discusses the possibility that the virus could have evolved through passaging of the virus in laboratory conditions, which could adapt a bat virus to be more transmissible in human cells. Again, genetic analysis of the viral RNA has identified various genetic features of the virus that enable its transmissibility in humans. One feature are a set of mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein that help the spike protein bind to the human ACE2 receptor more strongly. These mutations are similar to mutations found in a Pangolin coronavirus, so these mutations were likely introduced naturally into the progenitor bat Coronavirus through recombination. The other feature is a polybasic furin cleavage site within the spike protein, which is not found in other related coronaviruses. It is certainly possible for such sites to evolve naturally, as many other viruses have evolved furin sites in their extracellular proteins (including the MERS coronavirus), though the exact origins of the SARS-CoV-2 furin site remains unknown. While evolution of furin cleavage sites has been observed in laboratory passage of influenza virus, the SARS-CoV-2 sequence has other features (such as the introduction of a glycosylation site) that would not be expected to be selected for during passage in cultured cells, which would disfavor the laboratory passage hypothesis over a natural origin.

While the exact origins of the virus aren't known (and may never be known), most of the existing evidence supports a natural origin over an accidental release hypothesis. Indeed, we know of many new viruses that have jumped from animals to humans (e.g. HIV, ebola, swine flu, avian flu, Zika virus), including two new coronaviruses that have emerged within the past two decades (the original SARS and MERS). Ultimately, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. While we can't disprove the hypothesis that the virus escaped from a lab, I have not seen any compelling evidence to favor the laboratory escape hypothesis over a natural, zoonotic origin of the virus.
The only exception I take is the implication that a laboratory accident and a natural zoonotic origin are necessarily independent.

Is the glycosylation site also evidence against origins that include in-vivo serial passage or knowledge gained through such experiments?

If sars-cov-2 is unlikely to have arisen through gain of function research, would that be evidence that gain of function research on bat coronaviruses is fruitless?
 
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  • #3,076
I just heard about this brand new paper which is bang on topic:

Haushofer, Metcalf, "Which interventions work best in a pandemic?" (Science, 21 May 2020)
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/20/science.abb6144
A PDF is here.

Abstract:

The only approaches currently available to reduce transmission of the novel Coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are behavioral: handwashing, cough and sneeze etiquette, and above all, social distancing. Policy-makers have a variety of tools to enable these “nonpharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs), ranging from simple encouragement and recommendations to full-on regulation and sanctions. However, these interventions are often used without rigorous empirical evidence: They make sense in theory, and mathematical models can be used to predict their likely impact (1, 2), but with different policies being tried in different places—often in complicated combinations and without systematic, built-in evaluation—we cannot confidently attribute any given reduction in transmission to a specific policy.

Because many of these interventions differ from each other in terms of their economic and psychological cost—ranging from very inexpensive, in the case of interventions based on behavioral economics and psychology, to extremely costly, in the case of school and business closures—it is crucial to identify the interventions that most reduce transmission at the lowest economic and psychological cost. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are one of several methods that can be used for this purpose but surprisingly have received little attention in the current pandemic, despite a long history in epidemiology and social science. We describe how RCTs for NPIs can be practically and ethically implemented in a pandemic, how compartmental models from infectious disease epidemiology can be used to minimize measurement requirements, and how to control for spillover effects and harness their benefits.
 
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  • #3,077
I was kind of hoping they'd answer that question rather than pose it.
 
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  • #3,078
Ygggdrasil said:
The experiments proposed in this grant would likely not pose the risk of releasing a new pandemic strain of coronavirus. Speaking as someone who has worked in labs that study RNA viruses, there are ways to perform these studies in a safe manner. To study how mutations in the spike protein affect cell entry, scientists create something called a pseudotyped virus. This is essentially taking the spike protein from the coronaviruses that you'd like to study, and putting it on the outside of what is essentially a harmless virus shell. Typically, researchers use lentiviral vectors, which are derived from HIV. These viruses have been extensively modified to prevent them from being able to reproduce, so once the virus enters the cell, it cannot make new copies of itself (see the Addgene link above for more details). This technology is routinely used in many biomedical research labs to introduce foreign genes into cells. These types of experiments using pseudotyped viruses have been done with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in many published studies (for example, studying which antibodies are able to bind the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to prevent viral entry). So, this one sentence does not necessarily mean that the researchers were engaged in dangerous gain of function experiments.

Newsweek, however, does report that gain of function studies on bat coronaviruses did occur at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. They write:The article seems to be referring to this 2015 publication in Nature Medicine. As the Newsweek article notes, genetic analysis of the viral RNA would easily spot a virus generated through such gain of function studies, and the SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequence does not show signs of being manipulated in these ways.

The Newsweek article discusses the possibility that the virus could have evolved through passaging of the virus in laboratory conditions, which could adapt a bat virus to be more transmissible in human cells. Again, genetic analysis of the viral RNA has identified various genetic features of the virus that enable its transmissibility in humans. One feature are a set of mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein that help the spike protein bind to the human ACE2 receptor more strongly. These mutations are similar to mutations found in a Pangolin coronavirus, so these mutations were likely introduced naturally into the progenitor bat Coronavirus through recombination. The other feature is a polybasic furin cleavage site within the spike protein, which is not found in other related coronaviruses. It is certainly possible for such sites to evolve naturally, as many other viruses have evolved furin sites in their extracellular proteins (including the MERS coronavirus), though the exact origins of the SARS-CoV-2 furin site remains unknown. While evolution of furin cleavage sites has been observed in laboratory passage of influenza virus, the SARS-CoV-2 sequence has other features (such as the introduction of a glycosylation site) that would not be expected to be selected for during passage in cultured cells, which would disfavor the laboratory passage hypothesis over a natural origin.

While the exact origins of the virus aren't known (and may never be known), most of the existing evidence supports a natural origin over an accidental release hypothesis. Indeed, we know of many new viruses that have jumped from animals to humans (e.g. HIV, ebola, swine flu, avian flu, Zika virus), including two new coronaviruses that have emerged within the past two decades (the original SARS and MERS). Ultimately, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. While we can't disprove the hypothesis that the virus escaped from a lab, I have not seen any compelling evidence to favor the laboratory escape hypothesis over a natural, zoonotic origin of the virus.
Thanks for the informative answer. If it were just me maybe you would have a case but if it's so 'safe' why were the experts like Fauci and others agonizing over whether to do it or not?

"Ultimately, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. "

I strongly disagree. Escaping from a lab known to have safety issues and known to have done dangerous experiments with deadly viruses is definitely NOT the extraordinary claim here! Asserting near total confidence in a unknown natural pathway in spite of all the issues with WVI and gain-of-function research and the Chinese authorities, THAT is the extraordinary claim.

"genetic analysis of the viral RNA would easily spot a virus generated through such gain of function studies,"

There are assumptions in that. Newsweek pointed out there are possible ways it can be modified without being so obvious or even know by the researchers doing it.

"most of the existing evidence supports a natural origin over an accidental release hypothesis."

Accidental release doesn't have to mean it was modified in any way.

Whenever people are involved, bad things can easily happen regardless of safety protocols. Also, I understand there is a very strong motive to "defend science" and if the accident hypothesis turns out be true, that will set back the field immensely. So, I'm going to be skeptical of the rush to clear WVI and gain-of-function research.
 
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  • #3,079
This was on CBC "The Current" today:
MG: Let's talk briefly about timelines. You've been involved with vaccines for decades. How long on average does it take to get one to market?

ROB VAN EXAN: Normal timeline is about 15 years. The range is anywhere from 10 to 30. And I would also point out that there's many diseases for which we've been trying to develop a vaccine for many decades and have been unsuccessful.

MG: When you hear politicians and some manufacturers say we're looking at 12 to 18 months, what goes through your mind?

ROB VAN EXAN: I'm highly sceptical of it for a number of reasons. It's, I mean, there's two things in our favour is that there are a lot of vaccines for this disease in the pipeline. One hundred and some. But you also have to realize that out of all of those vaccines, there's only really eight different platforms or eight different technologies. And all of those vaccines are being developed, pretty much all of them using a single antigen for the COVID-19 virus. The spike protein antigen. And so that the this sort of minimizes all of the benefit of that. The normal probability of a vaccine being successful is about 10 percent. So with all these vaccines, yes, we will get something. But how quickly is a question? The first number might fail. Part of this is due to the fact that we know next to nothing about this virus, it's new.

MG: The other part of it is about the scale and how many we would need. I was reading something last night suggesting that just about everybody on the planet is in some way susceptible to this. So you would need, at the very least, what? Eight billion doses maybe people need a couple of different shots. You need sixteen million doses. How long does something like that take to manufacture?

ROB VAN EXAN: Well, I'm looking I'm looking at the manufacturers themselves and saying, what is your manufacturing capacity? The highest I've seen is about a billion doses a year. So you would be looking I mean, if it's a one dose vaccine and there's only one of them, it's eight years till everybody gets a shot.
 
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  • #3,080
Keith_McClary said:
This was on CBC "The Current" today:
I believe it's possible to make 1 billion doses a month globally if they wanted to. They just have to engineer the process and ramp it up to a capacity many times normal. As a simple comparison, 77% of U.S. adults take vitamins so that's on the order of 150 million doses a day. So 8 billion doses is about 50 days production. Of course a vaccine is likely more complicated but maybe it won't be.

I'm old enough to remember getting the polio vaccine as a child. Long lines at the public High School. The vaccine was given in a sugar cube.
 
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ROB VAN EXAN: Well, I'm looking I'm looking at the manufacturers themselves and saying, what is your manufacturing capacity? The highest I've seen is about a billion doses a year. So you would be looking I mean, if it's a one dose vaccine and there's only one of them, it's eight years till everybody gets a shot.
That's a single manufacturer? Now add all up and add something because other companies will join in. We see this with protective equipment and similar things already. Various producers of alcoholic beverages are now producing hand sanitizer, for example.
Even a billion vaccines would help already, however. Let them be 50% effective, that's pretty bad for a virus that doesn't mutate much. That's enough to vaccinate all healthcare workers and some more, 50% of the healthcare workers and 6% overall can't get the virus any more. It gets much easier to control the spread that way.
 
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  • #3,083
kadiot said:
What is the medical definition of "Second Wave"?

From Medicinenet:
Second wave: A phenomenon of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first. Infections appear to decrease. And then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #3,084
mfb said:
That's a single manufacturer?

Bill Gates has already announced he will start large-scale manufacturing of the 7 most promising, even before testing is complete. Once the best one or two vaccines emerges he will greatly upscale their production with multiple manufacturing plants. He, and his partner in this endeavour, Warren Buffet, have pledged much of their fortunes to eradicate this virus. Add in what individual countries will do and I think we will be in good shape once we get one, which looks more promising each day. Surprising aside - Bill Gates turned down being Trump's Science Advisor, but is Warren Buffet's Science Advisor. Make of it what you will.

Thanks
Bill
 
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bhobba said:
From Medicinenet:
Second wave: A phenomenon of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first. Infections appear to decrease. And then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.

Thanks
Bill
Thank you for the definition. I asked the question because the Philippine officials clash on where Philippines is in pandemic. The Secretary of Health claimed on Tuesday, May 19, the Philippines was on a "second wave" of Coronavirus surge and trying to prevent a 3rd. Until that time, most Filipinos thought the country was battling one wave and was preparing for a possible second wave. It seems other top government officials thought the same and were not on the same page as Secretary of Health.
 
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kadiot said:
The Secretary of Health claimed on Tuesday, May 19, the Philippines was on a "second wave" of Coronavirus surge and trying to prevent a 3rd. Until that time, most Filipinos thought the country was battling one wave and was preparing for a possible second wave.

However, what difference is that supposed to make in practice?
 
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Astronuc said:
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
LA Times, March 29, 2020 - In Skagit County, Washington, 60 people went to choir practice on March 10. Members were offered hand sanitizer at the door, and people refrained from handshakes and hugs (but not known if this was 100%). The practice lasted 2.5 hours.

First illnesses appear three days later on March 13. Three of four of two couples began to show symptoms of infection; the fourth first felt ill two days later. In the following days, more choir members became ill, as did some of their contacts.

Three weeks later, 45 choir members have tested positive for COVID-19 or are ill with symptoms (implies some not tested yet?), three are hospitalized and two are dead. According to the LA Times, eight people present at the choir practice maintain that no one was coughing or sneezing, which would imply 'respiratory droplets'. However, it appears that normal singing, or perhaps normal chorale singing with 'voice projection' is enough to release the virus.

This event indicates that the virus is highly transmissible through the air, and it does not require an infected person to be sneezing or coughing.

Edit - this story had me thinking about the attorney in New Rochelle, NY, who commuted from New Rochelle to New York City where he passed through Grand Central Station on the way to his office near GCS. I've done that many times myself for meetings in NY City, and people walk briskly from the train through the station and out to parts of the city, and some head to the subways for further parts. Breathing heavily would push out the virus to those one is passing, who are also rushing and breathing deeply. Many people who are infected apparently don't know they are. This also points to the importance of wearing a mask (preferably N95) in public to avoid expressing the virus and to mitigate inhaling the virus.

Edit/update - On March 26, Mike Baker (NY Times) reported about the Skagit Valley Chorale. Ruth Backlund, a co-president at the Skagit Valley Chorale, said “Nobody was sick. Nobody touched anybody. Nobody shook hands. Nobody hugged everybody like you might do in a group. There was none of that.”
The story would seem to confirm airborne transmission without coughing or sneezing, and whoever brought the infection along did not realize they were infected.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/c...0-people-show-up-for-practice-now-45-are-sick

A report is now available - a symptomatic person attended, and social distancing was not practised. Singing may have augmented transmission. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm
 
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Dr.AbeNikIanEdL said:
However, what difference is that supposed to make in practice?
Whether it is the first or second wave doesn't make a difference other than budget justification, I surmise. Unless we get a vaccine, there will almost certainly be another wave, and several more after that. The wave we have to worry about is the next one.
 
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Wittgenstein famously wrote that many of philosophies woes were self-made. Carelessness with language and inattention to its hidden pitfalls were to blame. He recommended his philosophical analysis of language as therapeutic -- getting the fly out of the bottle into which it had flown.

That is the trouble with this wave thing, and whole babel of contending voices it has stirred. We used a metaphor -- and now quarrel over it. How many waves? How does one count waves? In physics, it is not difficult. But when used metaphorically in connection with a pandemic, how do you count waves?

So, let's leave that troublesome metaphor behind and get into the more serious business of asking what the chances are that contaminated persons are not known to health authorities concerned, and that they may have infected others as well. And where it seems that we have held it at bay, let us not hesitate to sound the "all clear" so that lives can return to normal instead of foisting on the public a "new normal" -- which is once more carelessness with language, because it wants us to treat the abnormal as normal.
 
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Brazil becomes the new epeicenter of COVID-19 pandemic as it surpasses Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Germany in number of confirmed cases. Reports say that Brazilian hospitals can reach their breaking points or the inability to admit more patients by end of May, as mass graves fill even in remote Amazonian settelements.
 

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