COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[mfb]

Do you think, when the WHO made that infographic, they did not consider the time it takes for a package to arrive anywhere from China?
Or do you think them not trustworthy?

I think the WHO hopes that this virus is similar enough to previous coronaviruses. They actually say that themselves in the image: It's based on other viruses.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...n-surfaces#How-long-do-coronaviruses-persist?

Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. At a temperature of 30°C [86°F] or more, the duration of persistence is shorter.

Sure, 9 days is the extreme outlier, but it's certainly longer than some shipping times.

----

CDC stopped listing cases by state, for whatever reason. Instead of a number you just get "yes" or "no" now in the map and table.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I have a question. I can't find it with a google search. What happens after a few months?

• Of course a vaccine would be nice, I accept that may or may not happen.
• Does the danger subside by itself without a vaccine?
• Or does everyone in the world get exposed, and 60% of us catch it? If so, then avoiding crowds has no point if we all get exposed eventually.

I'm thinking SARS went away on its own, but the common cold and some variant of flu stays with us forever.

Regarding a vaccine: Despite what some people in the thread and some political figures have been saying, experts say that a vaccine for the Coronavirus is at least a year away from being available to the general public (https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-year-away-public-availability-1489214). Fastest time from outbreak to approval of a vaccine is ~ 7 months (for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in South America, https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/how-fast-biotech-vaccine-coronavirus/). While approval for a vaccine (which involves performing clinical trials to make sure that the vaccine is safe and effective) could come within a similar time frame, this does not account for the time needed to mass produce the doses required for use by the general public. Before then, access to the vaccine would likely be limited to those at the highest risk of contracting the virus (e.g. hospital workers).

SARS went away on its own because it was able to successfully be contained. Containment of SARS was easier because the symptoms were much more severe, so it was easier to detect and isolate those with the disease. COVID-19, however, is associated with much milder symptoms and it appears that asymptomatic individuals can transmit the disease (e.g. see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). These features of the disease has made it much more difficult to detect and isolate infected individuals, allowing the disease to spread undetected in some communities (like in the current outbreak in Washington State). It is looking increasingly likely that containment methods will not be able to completely eliminate the disease.

However, while containment methods may not be able to eliminate the disease, this is not to say we should give up on efforts to contain the disease. As many in the thread have said, a major danger of the outbreak is that it could overwhelm healthcare systems when a large number of people show up to hospitals, sick and in need of treatment. Taking measures to slow the spread of the disease and limit its spread can make a big difference. For example, there would be a big difference between 60% of the population getting the disease in one month versus 40% of the population getting the disease spread over the course of 3-4 months. In the first scenario, hospitals could run out of capacity to treat patients, leading to much higher death rates.

As for the long-term outlook for the disease, STAT News published a very nice piece discussing the issue: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

 

[kyphysics]

Dumb question:

So, let's say a surface has a virus. Does that virus move around on that surface and how much (if so)? I know bacteria move all over the place and need a food source.

Can a virus also move all over and do they need something to "fuel" them?

 

[kyphysics]

Regarding a vaccine: Despite what some people in the thread and some political figures have been saying, experts say that a vaccine for the Coronavirus is at least a year away from being available to the general public (https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-year-away-public-availability-1489214). Fastest time from outbreak to approval of a vaccine is ~ 7 months (for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in South America, https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/how-fast-biotech-vaccine-coronavirus/). While approval for a vaccine (which involves performing clinical trials to make sure that the vaccine is safe and effective) could come within a similar time frame, this does not account for the time needed to mass produce the doses required for use by the general public. Before then, access to the vaccine would likely be limited to those at the highest risk of contracting the virus (e.g. hospital workers).

SARS went away on its own because it was able to successfully be contained. Containment of SARS was easier because the symptoms were much more severe, so it was easier to detect and isolate those with the disease. COVID-19, however, is associated with much milder symptoms and it appears that asymptomatic individuals can transmit the disease (e.g. see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). These features of the disease has made it much more difficult to detect and isolate infected individuals, allowing the disease to spread undetected in some communities (like in the current outbreak in Washington State). It is looking increasingly likely that containment methods will not be able to completely eliminate the disease.

However, while containment methods may not be able to eliminate the disease, this is not to say we should give up on efforts to contain the disease. As many in the thread have said, a major danger of the outbreak is that it could overwhelm healthcare systems when a large number of people show up to hospitals, sick and in need of treatment. Taking measures to slow the spread of the disease and limit its spread can make a big difference. For example, there would be a big difference between 60% of the population getting the disease in one month versus 40% of the population getting the disease spread over the course of 3-4 months. In the first scenario, hospitals could run out of capacity to treat patients, leading to much higher death rates.

As for the long-term outlook for the disease, STAT News published a very nice piece discussing the issue: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

This is a fantastic post! Thanks for the work.

 

[chirhone]

Is soap enough to kill the virus? In case you don't have enough alcohol?

For example. The china items from Lazada arrive in just 4 to 5 days to thousands of users (even if Coronavirus survives 9 days).

Let's say the receiver would wear PPE to receive the package and cut the shipping packaging with scissors straight to waste disposal unit. Can you use soap to clean the scissors or does it have to be full alcohol to clear the scissors?

 

[TeethWhitener]

Does a general spray cover every microns of the surface? If even one micron is spared
The virus can live there. Do you always follow it by wiping the sprayed alcohol with tissue? My worry is it would destroy the paint.

This is part of containment efforts.

Spraying down surfaces with 70% ethanol is standard sterilization practice in a bio lab.

Also, if spraying a part like that with ethanol takes off the paint or rusts the part, you’ve paid too much for the part. This is true regardless of what you paid for it.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Regarding a vaccine: Despite what some people in the thread and some political figures have been saying, experts say that a vaccine for the Coronavirus is at least a year away from being available to the general public (https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-year-away-public-availability-1489214). Fastest time from outbreak to approval of a vaccine is ~ 7 months (for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in South America, https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/how-fast-biotech-vaccine-coronavirus/). While approval for a vaccine (which involves performing clinical trials to make sure that the vaccine is safe and effective) could come within a similar time frame, this does not account for the time needed to mass produce the doses required for use by the general public. Before then, access to the vaccine would likely be limited to those at the highest risk of contracting the virus (e.g. hospital workers).

SARS went away on its own because it was able to successfully be contained. Containment of SARS was easier because the symptoms were much more severe, so it was easier to detect and isolate those with the disease. COVID-19, however, is associated with much milder symptoms and it appears that asymptomatic individuals can transmit the disease (e.g. see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). These features of the disease has made it much more difficult to detect and isolate infected individuals, allowing the disease to spread undetected in some communities (like in the current outbreak in Washington State). It is looking increasingly likely that containment methods will not be able to completely eliminate the disease.

However, while containment methods may not be able to eliminate the disease, this is not to say we should give up on efforts to contain the disease. As many in the thread have said, a major danger of the outbreak is that it could overwhelm healthcare systems when a large number of people show up to hospitals, sick and in need of treatment. Taking measures to slow the spread of the disease and limit its spread can make a big difference. For example, there would be a big difference between 60% of the population getting the disease in one month versus 40% of the population getting the disease spread over the course of 3-4 months. In the first scenario, hospitals could run out of capacity to treat patients, leading to much higher death rates.

As for the long-term outlook for the disease, STAT News published a very nice piece discussing the issue: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

An excellent post - thanks for updating us!

I would like to add that as someone who had worked at a major vaccine manufacturer, I can indeed attest to the time frame required for a vaccine to become available (at least a year away, even if taking into account the approval period for the new vaccine).

It is also worth noting that there has also been research into whether existing approved antiviral medication could be effective in treating and controlling COVID-19. There are clinical trials in progress for a number of such antivirals, including favipiravir, ribavirin, remdesivir, and galidesivir.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#Management

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00016-0

 

[hmmm27]

OT thread-related question :
Why is everybody saying "70%" isopropanol ? 99% is readily available where I am, for pennies more. Useful stuff (either dilution) : antiseptic, aftershave, parts cleaner, general and specific solvent.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

OT thread-related question :
Why is everybody saying "70%" isopropanol ? 99% is readily available where I am, for pennies more. Useful stuff (either dilution) : antiseptic, aftershave, parts cleaner, general and specific solvent.

At concentrations higher than 70%, alcohol evaporates too quickly to efficiently disinfect a surface. The presence of water in the solution also aids in disrupting the cell membranes of germs:
https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/05/15...than-99-isopropanol-and-what-is-ipa-used-for/
https://www.cdc.gov/infectioncontrol/guidelines/disinfection/disinfection-methods/chemical.html

 

[kyphysics]

I would like to add that as someone who had worked at a major vaccine manufacturer, I can indeed attest to the time frame required for a vaccine to become available (at least a year away, even if taking into account the approval period for the new vaccine).

Does a "capitalistic incentive" speed that up at all?

I.e., If it were announced that a large cash prize would be offered for those able to come up with a vaccine by x amount of time, can we speed things up.

 

[TeethWhitener]

Does a "capitalistic incentive" speed that up at all?

I.e., If it were announced that a large cash prize would be offered for those able to come up with a vaccine by x amount of time, can we speed things up.

Once again, it’s not formulating the vaccine that’s the bottleneck at this point. It’s testing the vaccine, getting it approved, and then mass manufacturing it.

 

[kith]

Ps.: is there some 'admitted to hospital, by age group' type statistics around somewhere?

Yes, see this tweet by Scott Gottlieb. Compared to the flu in the US, COVID-19 in China has lead to more hospitalizations for younger people.

 

[hmmm27]

Is soap enough to kill the virus? In case you don't have enough alcohol?

Boiling water will "deactivate"(ie: kill) viruses.

 

[kyphysics]

Any numbers on people who get the virus, but don't show anything more than cold symptoms and never get the worst of it. Like a % on # of infected who just say they hda a common cold experience?

 

[chirhone]

Can sunlight kill COVID-19? I put my just delivered china item under sunlight.

Can weather or humidity affect COVID-19 transmission? In the Philippines, we had our last positive cases last January with 3 victims direct from China. We didn't have any local transmission, and over 600 PUI (Persons Under Investigations) tested negative. I don't know if the test kits used are of inferior quality. Is it possible the weather can affect transmission? Singapore is also hot but it has local transmission, how about the humidity? Here is some data of our humidity and temperature in the capital.

 

[BillTre]

UV light should inactivate viruses on exposed surfaces. This is usually done with germicidal UV lights. These are not the black lights that non-lab people will usually come in contact with.

Sunlight has some UV components and therefore should have some effect. Prolonged exposure on all sides would work best. Hidden surfaces would provide problems which is why complete liquid exposure is probably a better and easier solution.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Any numbers on people who get the virus, but don't show anything more than cold symptoms and never get the worst of it. Like a % on # of infected who just say they hda a common cold experience?

Based on over 70,000 cases reported in China, about 80% of those diagnosed with COVID-19 experience mild symptoms, versus 15% with severe symptoms (requiring hospitalization) and 5% with critical symptoms (life-threatening). Morality in the cohort studied was 2.3%.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

 

[mfb]

Is soap enough to kill the virus?

The main purpose of soap is not to kill things, soap is mainly used to wash off things.

 

[kadiot]

Can sunlight kill COVID-19? I put my just delivered china item under sunlight.View attachment 258079

Can weather or humidity affect COVID-19 transmission? In the Philippines, we had our last positive cases last January with 3 victims direct from China. We didn't have any local transmission, and over 600 PUI (Persons Under Investigations) tested negative. I don't know if the test kits used are of inferior quality. Is it possible the weather can affect transmission? Singapore is also hot but it has local transmission, how about the humidity? Here is some data of our humidity and temperature in the capital.

View attachment 258080

Hi. I'm a Filipino based in Singapore. I wonder about it too.

Singapore is winning the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic not because of its warm weather, but due to its early and effective containment and mitigation efforts. The island republic's geographic size, socioeconomic and political circumstances makes it easier to overcome the serious public health emergency that afflicted this small but rich country.

Compare this to much larger but less endowed ASEAN nations like the Philippines and Indonesia. It seems both countries are embroiled in faulty reporting on matters pertaining to state of public health and disaster management policy. Evidently it's best to organize, plan and prepare early and act vigorously given the inevitable impact of the corona virus. It's but a matter of time before this fast spreading virus take its deadly toll worldwide.

The announcement of the Department of Health ( DOH ) of having only 3 positive cases of infection and no local transmissions in the Philippines is a statistical impossibility. Perhaps DOH and the World Health Organization are adopting this approach to avoid global panic that will exacerbate the socioeconomic and political repercussions of the crisis? However our national circumstances as host to hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals, delayed travel restrictions and lax enforcement of quarantine protocol, and weak public healthcare infrastructure makes such announcements unconcionable. It will only bring false hope and add complacency in what should be a vigorous collective effort to contain the virus and protect public health.

Serious repercussions is to expected from this unmitigated spread of the virus is but a matter of time. Expect the impact and contagion in 2 to 4 weeks, or by the end of March 2020. Our passive and forgiving culture and lack of public disciple will exacerbate the situation. The contamination is a clear and present danger to all. In retrospect, this serves as our best argument to organize and prepare our last line of defense on a community level.

Collaborate now with your Local Government Units ( LGU ), hospitals and health centers, barangay councils, DRRMs and volunteers to protect public health and safety of our communities. We can fight the deadly virus by sharing science-based information and by promoting effective disaster management practices. Information gathering and dissemination, monitoring and identification, quarantine and provision of palliative care to PUIs in are key measures to protect ourselves, our family and community. Our last line of organized defense against the COVID-19 global pandemic is right in our neighborhood.

 

[atyy]

Is soap enough to kill the virus? In case you don't have enough alcohol?

The main purpose of soap is not to kill things, soap is mainly used to wash off things.

That's true, but soap can also inactivate viruses, if left in contact with the virus for long enough. That is why many recommendations for hand washing say something like scrub your hands for at least 20 or 30 seconds.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/41/7/e67/310340 (data on soap for 5 minutes for related viruses)
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext (data on alcohol etc for related viruses)

The thinking seems to be that the Coronavirus has a lipid envelope, which can be disrupted by detergents like soap.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...cov-infection-prevention-and-control-guidance
"As coronaviruses have a lipid envelope, a wide range of disinfectants are effective."
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/clarissajanlim/coronavirus-questions-masks-hand-sanitizers
"Sorrell said washing your hands for at least 20 seconds, which is also a recommendation for preventing common colds and influenza, is crucial.
"The virus is sensitive to detergents, meaning soap will inactivate the virus," she said."

 

[kadiot]

China was able to stall the spread by basically forcing the country to shut down and using AI and Big Data. Not sure the USA has the support/infrastructure to do that.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-suppressed-covid-19-with-ai-and-big-data/

 

[StatGuy2000]

Here is an interesting pre-print (still to be peer reviewed) which discusses mathematical models in regards to timing "one-shot" (i.e. short-term) interventions to control epidemics in general, with special application to the current COVID-19 outbreak.

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/j...ne_off_interventions_for_epidemic_control.pdf

 

[StatGuy2000]

Does a "capitalistic incentive" speed that up at all?

I.e., If it were announced that a large cash prize would be offered for those able to come up with a vaccine by x amount of time, can we speed things up.

@TeethWhitener has already explained the bottleneck to COVID-19 vaccine development in post #511.

I'll only add that the pharma companies who develop and manufacture vaccines (Sanofi, GSK, Merck, Pfizer, and Novavax being among the biggest) already have a "capitalist incentive" to develop the COVID-19 vaccine.

 

[bhobba]

Does a general spray cover every microns of the surface?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Once again, it’s not formulating the vaccine that’s the bottleneck at this point. It’s testing the vaccine, getting it approved, and then mass manufacturing it.

Exactly. We have the vaccine - a number actually. Here in Aus the vaccine UQ has come up is at the CSIRO being tested:
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Covid19-expert-commentary
'The timeline of developing a vaccine in merely months is very fast. That’s because we started this race with most of the tools partly developed. We are far ahead of where we were with SARS but the science complexity of what we are doing equates to the complexity of trying to put someone on Mars. It is very complex, and we really are pushing our science to the limits of global knowledge. If all goes well, and everything goes right, CSIRO could be testing vaccines in months.'

We are developing new methods as we go. But if all goes well the experts that claim at least a year (and I have seen some that claim 5 months - Israel claims 90 days) may be somewhat pessimistic. The other issue is exactly what level of safety in the vaccine are we willing to accept. I think we have, at least in Australia, to trust the experts because the government has the power to forcibly vaccinate entire populations presumably to create heard immunity. We re entering unknown territory here. IMHO these people are all unsung heroes.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Exactly. We have the vaccine - a number actually. Here in Aus the vaccine UQ has come up is at the CSIRO being tested:
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Covid19-expert-commentary
'The timeline of developing a vaccine in merely months is very fast. That’s because we started this race with most of the tools partly developed. We are far ahead of where we were with SARS but the science complexity of what we are doing equates to the complexity of trying to put someone on Mars. It is very complex, and we really are pushing our science to the limits of global knowledge. If all goes well, and everything goes right, CSIRO could be testing vaccines in months.'

We are developing new methods as we go. But if all goes well the experts that claim at least a year (and I have seen some that claim 5 months - Israel claims 90 days) may be somewhat pessimistic. The other issue is exactly what level of safety in the vaccine are we willing to accept. I think we have, at least in Australia, to trust the experts because the government has the power to forcibly vaccinate entire populations presumably to create heard immunity. We re entering unknown territory here.

Thanks
Bill

While the UQ team is still months away from testing, the US company Moderna will begin Phase I Clinical Trials later this month (estimated study start date 3/19) to begin tests on its candidate vaccine:
https://investors.modernatx.com/new...a-vaccine-against-novel-coronavirus-mrna-1273
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

This is a phase I, open-label, dose ranging clinical trial in males and non-pregnant females, 18 to 55 years of age, inclusive, who are in good health and meet all eligibility criteria. This clinical trial is designed to assess the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 manufactured by ModernaTX, Inc. mRNA-1273 is a novel lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes for a full-length, prefusion stabilized spike (S) protein of 2019-novel Coronavirus (nCoV). Enrollment will occur at one domestic site. Forty-five subjects will be enrolled into one of three cohorts (25 microgram [mcg], 100 mcg, 250 mcg). Subjects will receive an intramuscular (IM) injection (0.5 milliliter [mL]) of mRNA-1273 on Days 1 and 29 in the deltoid muscle and will be followed through 12 months post second vaccination (Day 394). Follow-up visits will occur 1, 2 and 4 weeks post each vaccination (Days 8, 15, 29, 36, 43, and 57), as well as 3, 6 and 12 months post second vaccination (Days 119, 209 and 394). The primary objective is to evaluate the safety and reactogenicity of a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273, given 28 days apart, across 3 dosages in healthy adults. The secondary objective is to evaluate the immunogenicity as measured by IgG ELISA to the 2019-nCoV S protein following a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273 at Day 57.

Still, it will take time to complete all three phases of the clinical trial to determine whether the vaccine is safe and effective at preventing disease. From the trial description, it sounds like around the end of May is when the company will get data that may determine whether they proceed with larger, Phase II clinical trials.

 

[bhobba]

While the UQ team is still months away from testing,

Scratching my head about that. It was announced the UQ vaccine is already undergoing animal trials. What I linked to said 'It is quite a challenge for us to get this set up, but we hope we’ll have something ready for vaccine producers to use by March or April this year.'

I think this is cutting edge stuff so novel new methods may be being used to speed it up.

Still its wise to have a balance of optimists like me and people with experience saying - hang on.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

While the UQ team is still months away from testing, the US company Moderna will begin Phase I Clinical Trials later this month (estimated study start date 3/19) to begin tests on its candidate vaccine:
https://investors.modernatx.com/new...a-vaccine-against-novel-coronavirus-mrna-1273
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

Has any RNA vaccine been shown to work? Does Moderna's vaccine contain RNA instead of an antigen? It seems like quite a different concept from current vaccines, which contain antigens.

 

[Dr. Courtney]

Most of us can do much more to prevent virus spread in our personal lifestyle choices than in our influence on public policy. Not that we shouldn't vote and use our freedom of speech to influence public policy. But lifestyle choices are probably the bigger issue regarding whether the virus impacts our own families.

I don't use public restrooms often, and I try to know and use ones that are kept clean and well maintained. But I'm still surprised at how many folks don't wash their hands. Likewise, I don't often eat in restaurants, but I'm surprised by how few patrons wash their hands. Hand washing is probably the most important thing most ordinary folks can do to prevent the spread of Coronavirus and many many other contagious diseases. My personal habit is to wash my hands 10-15 times a day - including before every meal and after every trip to the bathroom.

I also try and avoid crowds. If I need to go shopping, I try and go in the morning before there are many people. I prefer driving over flying. I try and avoid touching doorknobs and hand rails or wash my hands soon after. My wife has pointed out that many older people are at much greater risk of falls and should use hand rails on stairs. I've developed a technique where I hang a free hand over the hand rail where I can grab it quickly if I stumble without touching it if not needed. I also am very careful and intentional about each step and don't go up and down stairs distracted. Falls are likely to kill a lot more older Americans in 2020 than coronavirus.

In the last couple flu seasons I've had two instances of contagious diseases that required a visit to the doctor or staying home for more than a day. One was bronchitis that was most likely a viral/bacterial combo that I caught at church. Over half the church got it, after the pastors brought it back from a road trip to Texas. The wide spread resulted from the lack of any church policy or practice encouraging staff and members to stay home when they have a contagious disease. The second was a simple cold that presented at first with a severe sore throat, so strep was suspected at first until it was ruled out. I probably caught it when visiting a public aquarium on a very busy day. A youngster coughed directly in my face and I was unable to avoid directly inhaling at the wrong moment. I knew I'd get whatever that youngster had.

Self-quarantine is an important part of containing contagious diseases. There is no need to wait until one knows one has something worse than a common cold. If one is sniffling and coughing and regularly spraying and spreading whatever you have over some effective radius, you owe it to your fellow man to keep that radius to yourself. If you want everyone with the flu or Coronavirus or measles or black death or strep to stay home to reduce the risk to yourself and your family, then the Golden Rule demands you do the same for them. And given that in the early contagious stages, the symptoms of bad things are so similar to "not so bad" things you owe it to your fellow man to stay home when you're unsure of the source of your symptoms.

Think globally, act locally. Wash your hands a lot. And keep you and yours home when sick.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Scratching my head about that. It was announced the UQ vaccine is already undergoing animal trials. What I linked to said 'It is quite a challenge for us to get this set up, but we hope we’ll have something ready for vaccine producers to use by March or April this year.'

I think this is cutting edge stuff so novel new methods may be being used to speed it up.

Still its wise to have a balance of optimists like me and people with experience saying - hang on.

Thanks
Bill

My post was based on text you quoted in your earlier post: "If all goes well, and everything goes right, CSIRO could be testing vaccines in months."

The quote you use here ("It is quite a challenge for us to get this set up, but we hope we’ll have something ready for vaccine producers to use by March or April this year.") is misleading. Here's the full context of the quote:

CSIRO has been commissioned to develop a system so that anyone with a candidate vaccine (a vaccine that they think will work but hasn’t yet had proof of efficacy) can just plug it into our system and make the process of testing faster.

It is quite a challenge for us to get this set up, but we hope we’ll have something ready for vaccine producers to use by March or April this year.

We are also looking at preclinical evaluation of therapeutics that could complement vaccines.
- Prof Trevor Drew

This is basically saying that the infrastructure for testing a vaccine will not be in place at CSIRO until March or April this year. This has nothing to do with the progress towards a candidate vaccine. The quote following quote describes the timeline for testing of the UQ vaccine candidate:

The timeline of developing a vaccine in merely months is very fast. That’s because we started this race with most of the tools partly developed.

We are far ahead of where we were with SARS but the science complexity of what we are doing equates to the complexity of trying to put someone on Mars. It is very complex, and we really are pushing our science to the limits of global knowledge.

If all goes well, and everything goes right, CSIRO could be testing vaccines in months.

- Dr Rob Grenfell

Regardless, animal testing still counts as pre-clinical development and testing, and plenty of vaccine candidates are at the pre-clinical stage. A big step forward for a vaccine candidate is when the vaccine advances towards testing in people. As far as I know, the Moderna vaccine candidate is so far the only one to advance to clinical testing in humans (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-drugs-and-vaccines-in-development/).

Has any RNA vaccine been shown to work? Does Moderna's vaccine contain RNA instead of an antigen? It seems like quite a different concept from current vaccines, which contain antigens.

No, Moderna has not received FDA approval for any of their mRNA therapies (vaccine or other), so you are correct to point out that their technology is unproven. This is why a 1-1.5 year timeline for wide availability of a vaccine is optimistic. From the STAT News piece above, here's the estimated timeline from a traditional vaccine manufacturer:

Sanofi expects to have a vaccine candidate to test in the lab within six months and could be ready to test a vaccine in people within a year to 18 months. Approval would likely be at least three years away, the company said.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-drugs-and-vaccines-in-development/

People and governments should not plan on a vaccine being available to stop the spread of the current outbreak.

 

[TeethWhitener]

(Possibly off topic) Why does extracellular RNAse not just immediately chew up an RNA vaccine? What's the advantage of RNA over DNA vaccines?

 

[hagopbul]

Hello All:

i noticed the this virus are effecting the kidney , why ? isn't that strange ?

Best
Hagop

 

[chemisttree]

Hello All:

i noticed the this virus are effecting the kidney , why ? isn't that strange ?

Best
Hagop

ACE-2 receptors are expressed in the kidney.

 

[hagopbul]

ACE-2 receptors are expressed in the kidney.

thanks

 

[chirhone]

Hi. I'm a Filipino based in Singapore. I wonder about it too.

Singapore is winning the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic not because of its warm weather, but due to its early and effective containment and mitigation efforts. The island republic's geographic size, socioeconomic and political circumstances makes it easier to overcome the serious public health emergency that afflicted this small but rich country.

Compare this to much larger but less endowed ASEAN nations like the Philippines and Indonesia. It seems both countries are embroiled in faulty reporting on matters pertaining to state of public health and disaster management policy. Evidently it's best to organize, plan and prepare early and act vigorously given the inevitable impact of the corona virus. It's but a matter of time before this fast spreading virus take its deadly toll worldwide.

The announcement of the Department of Health ( DOH ) of having only 3 positive cases of infection and no local transmissions in the Philippines is a statistical impossibility.

Why is this a statistical impossibility? Were you referring to the over 600 Persons of Interests who had contacts with the 3 main chinese positives and yet all were tested to be negatives?

I know the Philippines is part of the traffic of worldwide critical elements like chinese PLO agents, Al Qaeda, ISIS, Yakusa, the Mafia, and millions of illegal chinese were in the country who bribed and paid a little to get passports and visa (related to Pogo), with hundreds of chinese and russian prostitutes to serve them, etc. Second most numerous are the koreans who came here to study english. We couldn't ban their entry bec the country can get poorer.

Where do you think our Department of Health get the test kits? Who could be responsible if they were all doctored to show negative, the tourism industry? Is this possible at all? How exactly?

At this point, I can't speak more. This is because we were all threatened with jail time if we discuss about it. See:

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/2/5/Philippines-fake-news-coronavirus-jail.html

Make sure there is no extradition treaty between the Philippines and Singapore or other special Geneva War Crimes protocol so you won't face the situation where special forces in apache helicopters would land in singapore arresting filipinos who become a threat to containment of coronovirus or disturb the stability of one of few countries in the world where local transmission don't exist (Philippines) and tourists welcomed and can relax from zero transmission (By the way, a month before the a volcanic erupted sending many volcanic dusts in the air, is it possible this could have sterilized and deactivate the corona virus?)

All this has great implications with me because I recently moved to a condominium building with over 5000 tenants, they all use the elevators. The moment I got confirmation we really have other positives. I'd move out asap so don't hesitate to update us (especially if there was no extradition treaty between Singapore and Philippines and you will become our voice and perhaps our only hope).

Perhaps DOH and the World Health Organization are adopting this approach to avoid global panic that will exacerbate the socioeconomic and political repercussions of the crisis? However our national circumstances as host to hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals, delayed travel restrictions and lax enforcement of quarantine protocol, and weak public healthcare infrastructure makes such announcements unconcionable. It will only bring false hope and add complacency in what should be a vigorous collective effort to contain the virus and protect public health.

Serious repercussions is to expected from this unmitigated spread of the virus is but a matter of time. Expect the impact and contagion in 2 to 4 weeks, or by the end of March 2020. Our passive and forgiving culture and lack of public disciple will exacerbate the situation. The contamination is a clear and present danger to all. In retrospect, this serves as our best argument to organize and prepare our last line of defense on a community level.

Collaborate now with your Local Government Units ( LGU ), hospitals and health centers, barangay councils, DRRMs and volunteers to protect public health and safety of our communities. We can fight the deadly virus by sharing science-based information and by promoting effective disaster management practices. Information gathering and dissemination, monitoring and identification, quarantine and provision of palliative care to PUIs in are key measures to protect ourselves, our family and community. Our last line of organized defense against the COVID-19 global pandemic is right in our neighborhood.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Media Advisory
Contra Costa County Confirms First Local Case of Novel Coronavirus

• 
  

Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Note to Editors: The media briefing will take place at 1220 Morello Ave., in Martinez. No interviews will be provided prior to the briefing.

WHAT
Contra Costa Health Services (CCHS) has confirmed the first positive case of novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, involving a resident of the county.
The person tested positive this afternoon. Our County's public health lab conducted the test, which is expected to be confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention in the coming days. The patient, who is being treated at a hospital in the county, had no known travel history and no known contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19.
CCHS is conducting a thorough investigation to identify anyone who may have had close contact with the patient.
WHEN:
8:30 p.m., March 3, 2020
WHERE:
2nd floor conference room at 1220 Morello Ave., Martinez, CA 94553
https://cchealth.org/press-releases/2020/0303-First-Local-Case-of-Novel-Coronavirus.php

I live in Contra Costa. Did anyone go to the conference? I missed it. Chemisttree did you go?

 

[kadiot]

...Not that we shouldn't vote and use our freedom of speech to influence public policy...

Use your freedom of speech, but the government should suspend the FREEDOM OF SPITS.

 

[Dr. Courtney]

From: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/stop-the-spread-of-germs.pdf

 

[kyphysics]

^^^Thank you, Dr. Courtney. Staying home when sick is a good reminder. Your immune system is already compromised and if you get the Coronavirus on top of whatever illness you have, then you may be at severe risk of having major complications.

The part about avoiding close contact with sick people can be tough. I was in line today with an elderly gentleman who was coughing continuously. There was no way to avoid it, because the line was for something I had to turn in and if I left, I would have lost my spot.

I didn't want to make the guy behind me feel bad. So, I didn't comment on his constant coughing. And, I didn't leave the line, as I thought it might make him feel bad too. I technically could have left and just lost some time (maybe an hour or what not), but felt bad as that would give the impression I was leaving due to his coughing.

I know I had every right to and health is more important...but I'm human too. Psychologically, it was hard to do that.

That made me realize that sometimes these situations test our humanity. Ideally, sick people should stay home. But, sometimes it's hard for them to. Ideally, we should protect ourselves from sick people around us. But, socially, it can be uncomfortable to do that.

 

[bhobba]

Is basically saying that the infrastructure for testing a vaccine will not be in place at CSIRO until March or April.

Thanks for clarifying what is fast becoming a very complicated issue.

Most definitely nobody should plan on the vaccine being available to halt the spread. As the CSIRO said this is like going to mars, a real stretch for current technology.

Thanks
Bill

 

[hagopbul]

Thanks for clarifying what is fast becoming a very complicated issue.

Most definitely nobody should plan on the vaccine being available to halt the spread. As the CSIRO said this is like going to mars, a real stretch for current technology.
Thanks
Bill

Isn't there some exaggeration in relation to this covid-19?

 

[bhobba]

Isn't there some exaggeration in relation to this covid-19?

Honestly I do not know. As I said Israel has said they will have the vaccine approved and everything in 90 days. I have seen an interview here in Aust with a professor of immunology that says 5 months here. This is a very, for want of a better word, perplexing. Maybe I should just post what I find out without comment.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Rive]

This is a very, for want of a better word, perplexing.

I guess it might work, if their solution is about an already approved vaccine production technology with only the virus strain swapped to Covid-19. Depends on the local regulation.

I know something like this works for the production of some flu vaccines, when the strains in the WHO-approved cocktail changes.

 

[bhobba]

I guess it might work, if their solution is about an already approved vaccine production technology with only the virus strain swapped to Covid-19. Depends on the local regulation.

Yes. Its one of those reasons I am now wary of reading too much into what the scientists say.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Rive]

Yes. Its one of those reasons I am now wary of reading too such a into what the scientists say.

Even if it goes the way I described the technology itself required to have proper trials before it is approved for this kind of accelerated process later on. And the process is still just 'accelerated', not without trials.

Too many unknowns. Just take it as a possibility.

 

[bhobba]

I know the Philippines is part of the traffic of worldwide critical elements like chinese PLO agents, Al Qaeda, ISIS, Yakusa, the Mafia, and millions of illegal chinese were in the country who bribed and paid a little to get passports and visa (related to Pogo), with hundreds of chinese and russian prostitutes to serve them, etc.

Can we please stick to the science. The above is about matters way beyond what this forum is about. And yes I am speaking in my capacity as a mentor.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kadiot]

Looks like 14-20 days prior from her arrival in Ausie shores she's been infecting everyone. What kind of PCR tests Philippine-DOH does?

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/3/5/Woman-who-traveled-to-Philippines-tests-positive-coronavirus-Australia-.html?fbclid=IwAR33MjuIZ7AFLkeXVYUjvF9-F4RKZq1wYf4L-W1wcwirfdFRhPOx2lgGKR0#.XmDKEvrJFis.facebook

 

[bhobba]

(Possibly off topic) Why does extracellular RNAse not just immediately chew up an RNA vaccine? What's the advantage of RNA over DNA vaccines?

I have to mention (and it's possibly irrelevant to the above) the Australian vaccine uses what they call molecular clamp technology which I think may be different - but this is hardly my area of expertise:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_clamp

Thanks
Bill

 

[hagopbul]

Just a question what examination is used to detect covid-19

 

[bhobba]

Just a question what examination is used to detect covid-19

Good old Wikipedia to the rescue:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

But I know everyone really wants something quicker that can be used for immediate screening at airports etc. Of course it's being worked on as a priority; it could be argued it may be more important than a vaccine.

Thanks
Bill