COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[kadiot]

Feb 02 - 14k confirmed cases worldwide

Feb 29 - 85k confirmed cases worldwide

The slope is tapering off towards a sideways extension rather than a 45 degrees incline.

Unfortunately, there were intermittent spikes in the past month as there are spikes in the past week.

 

[bhobba]

The vaccine is coming at breakneck speed (also a good explanation how the new molecular clamp technology works):
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...19-vaccine-is-being-made-20200220-p542rh.html

Manufacturing of test batches has already started:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...oes-into-test-production-20200221-p5436l.html

I am still hearing differing estimates from experts on when it will be available to the general public - some say with the new manufacturing techniques and accelerated testing 5 months from now, others 2 years, and others in between. I really do not know who to believe here.

BTW it's pretty certain its broken confinement here in Aus - a beautician on the Gold Coast, returning from Iran, gave facials to 40 people and was then found to have it. They are trying to track down the 40 people but don't seem confident.

Thanks
Bill

 

[berkeman]

Where do I volunteer to be a test dummy for the vaccine? And who do I have to pay off so I don't get the placebo shot?

 

[Bandersnatch]

Where do I volunteer to be a test dummy for the vaccine? And who do I have to pay off so I don't get the placebo shot?

I can offer you a 101% certified free* and totes legit trial. You just have to purchase this small bridge off of me.

*something something

 

[StatGuy2000]

This is like the Energizer Bunny of viruses.

Reuters; "A growing number of discharged Coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital..."

The article above seems to raise one of 3 possibilities:

1. Recovering patients may not have developed enough antibodies to develop immunity to COVID-19, and are being infected again (I wonder if this may be more often the case for those with weakened immune systems).

2. COVID-19 could be "biphasic", meaning that it lies dormant before creating new symptoms. Anthrax is one example of a biphasic infection, but as far as I know, none of the other Coronavirus infections like SARS or MERS exhibit this behaviour. So it would be curious to say the least if COVID-19 would exhibit this pattern.

3. The cases of "reinfection" may be due to testing discrepancies. In other words, due to the inaccuracies of the method of testing used, a patient may have been declared as "recovered" even though the patient may still have COVID-19 in their system from the initial infection.

My own speculation (FWIW) is that #1 and #3 are the more likely explanations, but we would need more data and further research on this question.

 

[BillTre]

Here is a Science mag news article that discusses some antibody tests being developed.
Singapore has been testing one. Not a large scale production at this time.

Antibody (or serological) tests show if someone has been exposed to the virus (since their immune system has made antibodies against it), presently or in the past.
The PCR tests look for virus present at the time of sample collection, in what ever part of the body the sample was collected from (spit, pee, blood, or ??). If the virus was already cleared by the patient, or if the virus is present in other parts of the body, but not where the sample was collected, then you could get a negative result not fully informative of the situation or the patient's history.

 

[OmCheeto]

The article above seems to raise one of 3 possibilities:

...

Being a layman, with a wild imagination, I can think of lots more.

4. Lots of viruses exhibit this phenomena. This is just the first one we've looked at exhaustively enough to have noticed it. Being dead to begin with, the virions cling to the inside of recovered asymptomatic patient's sinuses, just waiting to be swabbed.

Actually, that's all I can think of at the moment.

hmm... I think this may be the JAMA article referred to in the Reuters story: Positive RT-PCR Test Results in Patients Recovered From COVID-19

I'm not sure why I found this interesting; "The same technician ... was used for all RT-PCR testing"

Talk about eliminating variables!

 

[mfb]

Feb 02 - 14k confirmed cases worldwide

Feb 29 - 85k confirmed cases worldwide

The slope is tapering off towards a sideways extension rather than a 45 degrees incline.

Unfortunately, there were intermittent spikes in the past month as there are spikes in the past week.

The overall numbers taper off as China reports low numbers of new infections, especially from Hubei.
Outside China the numbers are growing rapidly.
Feb 1: 168
Feb 10: 461
Feb 20: 1198
Feb 28: 5275
We are at over 1000 new cases per day now, largely driven by South Korea (800 new today), Iran (200 new today), and Italy (no number for Feb 29 yet). The Iranian numbers are likely underestimating the outbreak there.

What I don't understand is Italy. Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, France, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Greece, Lithuania, Romania, North Macedonia... basically all European countries that had cases recently got them from Italy (Estonia got one from Iran). If there are tens of cases where people brought the virus from Italy elsewhere to Europe within a few days, then how can Italy have only 900 cases? Are they that behind with testing, or did all these cases happen in places with many international travelers?

 

[chemisttree]

This is like the Energizer Bunny of viruses.

Reuters; "A growing number of discharged Coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital..."

We don’t know if the virus is able to transmit in these patients yet. Hopefully not and hopefully these tests are only seeing residual viral particles covered by antibodies just waiting for their host’s leucopenia to resolve and sweep them away. When I see these reports paired with a statement that the patient’s white blood cell count is normal, that’s when I’ll start worrying.

 

[atyy]

We don’t know if the virus is able to transmit in these patients yet. Hopefully not and hopefully these tests are only seeing residual viral particles covered by antibodies just waiting for their host’s leucopenia to resolve and sweep them away. When I see these reports paired with a statement that the patient’s white blood cell count is normal, that’s when I’ll start worrying.

In the Science news item on the antibody test in Singapore mentioned by @bhobba (post #374) and @BillTre (post #406), two people who had recovered were detected as having had the virus by antibody testing.

It does mention that surprisingly, one of them also tested positive for the virus. In this case, since the patients were inferred by contact tracing, and not tested until after recovery, we don't know whether the patient who was PCR-positive might have earlier tested PCR-negative for some swabs - but I do wonder.

It might also be interesting to do a study similar to that mentioned by @OmCheeto (post #407) with combined PCR and antibody testing.

 

[atyy]

hmm... I think this may be the JAMA article referred to in the Reuters story: Positive RT-PCR Test Results in Patients Recovered From COVID-19

I'm not sure why I found this interesting; "The same technician ... was used for all RT-PCR testing"

Maybe the negative tests were on his first day on the job? (Probably, not since this is China, and they've been testing thousands.)

 

[kadiot]

The article above seems to raise one of 3 possibilities:

1. Recovering patients may not have developed enough antibodies to develop immunity to COVID-19, and are being infected again (I wonder if this may be more often the case for those with weakened immune systems).

2. COVID-19 could be "biphasic", meaning that it lies dormant before creating new symptoms. Anthrax is one example of a biphasic infection, but as far as I know, none of the other Coronavirus infections like SARS or MERS exhibit this behaviour. So it would be curious to say the least if COVID-19 would exhibit this pattern.

3. The cases of "reinfection" may be due to testing discrepancies. In other words, due to the inaccuracies of the method of testing used, a patient may have been declared as "recovered" even though the patient may still have COVID-19 in their system from the initial infection.

My own speculation (FWIW) is that #1 and #3 are the more likely explanations, but we would need more data and further research on this question.

This is the answer to reinfection. There is none. Reactivation, maybe.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/28/national/coronavirus-reinfection/#.XlsTYLLmiDa

 

[berkeman]

This is the answer to reinfection. There is none. Reactivation, maybe.

Why are you talking like Yoda?

 

[kadiot]

Why are you talking like Yoda?

Yoda the Star Wars character? Hehehe. I simply based my comment from the article.
As of this moment, even WHO is puzzled with Covid19, this could actually be a new era of a type of infection that is capable of becoming a dormant the reason why a lot of negative results are reported among the infected population because they are looking for flu like symptoms but with degree of difference. The symptom being exhibited by wat of viral reconfiguration this can now be a new type of virus all through out which has a new property not common to other viruses.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

As U.S. Preps For Coronavirus, Health Workers Question Safety Measures

February 26, 20205:34 PM ET

Heard on All Things Considered
YUKI NOGUCHI

[. . . ]

The new Coronavirus has yet to sicken American health workers, as it has in China. But deaths of hospital workers in Asia have heightened scrutiny of the U.S. health care system's ability to protect people on the front line.

Thomas Northcut/Getty Images

Updated at 6:52 p.m. ET

The U.S. health care system is trying to be ready for possible outbreaks of the new coronavirus, after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned communities this week to prepare for the kind of spread now being seen in Iran, Italy, South Korea and other areas outside the virus' epicenter in China.

The CDC notes there are only 15 confirmed cases of the Coronavirus in the United States, plus 45 more cases among Americans who were brought home from the Diamond Princess cruise ship or via flights from Asia arranged by the U.S. State Department. The vast majority of those total cases in the U.S. are travel related; there are no signs, so far, that the virus has spread beyond the CDC totals.

SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS

Health Officials Warn Americans To Plan For The Spread Of Coronavirus In U.S.

Still, some U.S. health care workers on the front line, including Maureen Dugan, worry they are not properly prepared.

Dugan is a veteran nurse at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, where two Coronavirus patients were transferred this month. UCSF is one of the premier hospitals in the country, but Dugan says her frustrations are mounting because she says her employer offered little notice or training to those caring for the infected patients.

"We want to do the best. We work extremely hard to do the best for our patients, so don't set us up to fail," Dugan says. "It's not only nurses — it's all the other staff. It's nursing assistants; it's transport. Every staff member is worried."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...virus-health-workers-question-safety-measures

 

[nsaspook]

Beijing 4K POV - Drive in the empty ZhongGuanCun - Beijing - China

 

[atyy]

APS March Meeting has been cancelled.

http://nanoscale.blogspot.com/2020/02/aps-march-meeting-cancelled.html?m=1

https://march.aps.org/
"The 2020 APS March Meeting is Canceled Due to rapidly escalating health concerns relating to the spread of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the 2020 APS March Meeting in Denver, CO, has been canceled. Please do not travel to Denver to attend the March Meeting"

 

[chemisttree]

It might also be interesting to do a study similar to that mentioned by @OmCheeto (post #407) with combined PCR and antibody testing.

Nah! If the PCR test were positive you are always going to get antibodies unless the subject has a screwed up immune system. If the PCR test were negative and the antibody test were positive, you know nothing. That could be a false negative, BDL of virus or no virus.

I’d much rather know the white blood cell count + PCR in recovered patients. I’d also like to test tissue samples from immune privileged areas.

 

[atyy]

Nah! If the PCR test were positive you are always going to get antibodies unless the subject has a screwed up immune system. If the PCR test were negative and the antibody test were positive, you know nothing. That could be a false negative, BDL of virus or no virus.

I’d much rather know the white blood cell count + PCR in recovered patients. I’d also like to test tissue samples from immune privileged areas.

What is BDL?

 

[kadiot]

What is BDL?

Below Detection Limit?

 

[bhobba]

I can offer you a 101% certified free* and totes legit trial. You just have to purchase this small bridge off of me.

Are you associated with the guy who sold me that fantastic park in the middle of New York he inherited from his father, the late Sam Central? Seriously the speed of developing the vaccine is encouraging, fingers crossed, it will more likely be 5 months. The person who said that was an immunologist that was close to the development team. Interestingly he said he was also a pediatrician, and children believe it or not are doing rather well if they catch it. His theory is adults have been exposed to other coronovirus's and their immune system is overreacting. I haven't discussed this with my doctor yet, but I will be seeing him sometime this week for an insulin script. Why do they keep saying people with diabetes like me are at risk - it's very depressing. I have to laugh a bit when experts say everyone will get it - they must be very pessimistic about the vaccine.

Thanks
Bill

 

[AlexCaledin]

... an immunologist ... His theory is adults have been exposed to other coronovirus's and their immune system is overeating.

- is that how immunologists admit that adults are simply over-vaccinated?

 

[StatGuy2000]

This is the answer to reinfection. There is none. Reactivation, maybe.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/28/national/coronavirus-reinfection/#.XlsTYLLmiDa

The article you point to only reports speculation among some of the researchers of the possibility of reactivation. Reinfection has not been ruled out, and whether reactivation is possible will require further research.

 

[kadiot]

The article you point to only reports speculation among some of the researchers of the possibility of reactivation. Reinfection has not been ruled out, and whether reinfection is possible will require further research.

Yes, that's why I said there's none. I agree most of the reports carry some "experts" opinion with it.

 

[bhobba]

I just don't know what to say:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/anti-vaxxers-terrified-of-a-mandatory-coronavirus-vaccine-in-australia/ar-BB10xPeA

Sorry guys, while I believe in freedom and all that, the government has decided, in a really bad emergency situation, your irrational belief about vaccines does not allow you to put others lives in danger. And yes, generally most people in Australia don't have guns for self defense, but even if you had guns the government has enough resources so it will not make any difference.

Tanks
Bill

 

[kadiot]

When air is humid & warm, droplets gather more moisture, become too heavy to stay airborne & fall to the ground more quickly – this makes transmission harder. (shown in flu in guinea pig models: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151)

 

[chemisttree]

Are you associated with the guy who sold me that fantastic park in the middle of New York he inherited from his father, the late Sam Central? Seriously the speed of developing the vaccine is encouraging, fingers crossed, it will more likely be 5 months. The person who said that was an immunologist that was close to the development team. Interestingly he said he was also a pediatrician, and children believe it or not are doing rather well if they catch it. His theory is adults have been exposed to other coronovirus's and their immune system is overreacting. I haven't discussed this with my doctor yet, but I will be seeing him sometime this week for an insulin script. Why do they keep saying people with diabetes like me are at risk - it's very depressing. I have to laugh a bit when experts say everyone will get it - they must be very pessimistic about the vaccine.

Thanks
Bill

Not pessimistic but realistic. Even if a working vaccine were developed today it is only experimental until the time-intensive clinical trials demonstrate safety and efficacy. Those are what take the real time. 18 months for that realistically. You take it before it’s proven safe, you’re a guinea pig and bad things could happen. There’s no getting around it... a safe vaccine will come too late for the first wave of this virus and non-pharmaceutical intervention is the only thing we have to work with. Healthcare workers sometimes volunteer to be vaccine guinea pigs because of the hazardous nature of their work during an outbreak.

Diabetics are at higher risk because of their elevated A1C.

 

[kadiot]

I'm aware that mutations are a natural part of the virus life cycle. But I always wonder if mutations impact outbreaks.

 

[chemisttree]

I'm aware that mutations are a natural part of the virus life cycle. But I always wonder if mutations impact outbreaks.

It did during the swine flu 2009 outbreak. It mutated to a less virulent strain.

 

[kadiot]

Not pessimistic but realistic. Even if a working vaccine were developed today it is only experimental until the time-intensive clinical trials demonstrate safety and efficacy. Those are what take the real time. 18 months for that realistically. You take it before it’s proven safe, you’re a guinea pig and bad things could happen. There’s no getting around it... a safe vaccine will come too late for the first wave of this virus and non-pharmaceutical intervention is the only thing we have to work with. Healthcare workers sometimes volunteer to be vaccine guinea pigs because of the hazardous nature of their work during an outbreak.

Diabetics are at higher risk because of their elevated A1C.

I agree. I've heard that it would take 12 to 18 months before vaccine passes through clinical trials, health authority evaluation, registration and the new vaccine would still require production facilities to mass-manufacture and distribute. Vaccine manufacturers cannot create vaccines for all countries who have reported COVID19 cases.

 

[Vanadium 50]

And who do I have to pay off so I don't get the placebo shot?

If I ever get sick, I want those placebos. They seem to be able to cure anything some fraction of the time!

I don't understand why the APS isn't cancelling the meeting because of measles. There are more cases in the US, it has a much, much higher R0, and a slightly higher fatality rate for the non-ederly (there is very little recent data on the elderly and measles for obvious reasons). Why is Coronavirus causing this panic when measles is demonstrably worse in the US along every axis?

 

[BillTre]

I don't understand why the APS isn't cancelling the meeting because of measles. There are more cases in the US, it has a much, much higher R0, and a slightly higher fatality rate for the non-ederly (there is very little recent data on the elderly and measles for obvious reasons). Why is Coronavirus causing this panic when measles is demonstrably worse in the US along every axis?

I can think of a few reasons:

• No vaccine for Coronavirus (unlike measles).
• No pre-existing population of people previously exposed to the Coronavirus who have developed a natural immunity (unlike measles).
• Population of those attending a scientific meeting are probably more likely to have a vaccine to an established disease than the normal (non-scientifically educated public).
• Caution in the face of the unknown (coronavirus not yet well characterized).

 

[Vanadium 50]

The first two points are covered in R0. I'm not so sure about that third point, because it's really the parents' educational attainment that matters (although it is correlated). The fourth point is valid, but I would argue still over-reacting. If coronavirius was known to be twice as risky as measles, would we still cancel? Three times?

 

[bhobba]

Not pessimistic but realistic. Even if a working vaccine were developed today it is only experimental until the time-intensive clinical trials demonstrate safety and efficacy. Those are what take the real time. 18 months for that realistically. You take it before it’s proven safe, you’re a guinea pig and bad things could happen. There’s no getting around it... a safe vaccine will come too late for the first wave of this virus and non-pharmaceutical intervention is the only thing we have to work with. Healthcare workers sometimes volunteer to be vaccine guinea pigs because of the hazardous nature of their work during an outbreak.

Well I think depending on exactly how it develops they may take that risk - the Israeli's think 90 days: https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Diabetics are at higher risk because of their elevated A1C.

I know. I also take methotrexate and a Biologic - both immune suppressants - so I am in double trouble. I have had a GP, Endocrinologist and Rheumatologist explain it all to me in excruciating detail. If I get through this coronovirus business I have the inestimable pleasure of deciding whether to take the risk with the Pneumonia vaccine everyone in Aus is supposed to get when they turn 65. Trouble is their have been recorded deaths due to it being a live vaccine and those on immune system suppressants. But then again getting Pneumonia is not exactly great for people like me. I finally decided when that comes around to consult an immunologist.

Thanks
Bill

 

[BillTre]

The first two points are covered in R0.

I can't say I have developed a lot of confidence in the R0 values.
They have not yet seemed to settle on a consistent value.

They may also vary between different populations due to genetic differences in immune system capabillities, as well as standard cultural behaviors that could affect transmission, as well as how public health is administered.

 

[Rive]

Why is Coronavirus causing this panic when measles is demonstrably worse in the US along every axis?

I think the panic (is there real panic already?) is due the news.

But I think measles is not worse: not as it is now, at least. It does not have the potential to affect most of the population within the next few years, thanks to vaccination.

 

[chemisttree]

Well I think depending on exactly how it develops they may take that risk - the Israeli's think 90 days: https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Probably limit the early administration to healthcare workers and the most at-risk population. I think this happens every time something like this comes around.
It is good news that the MIGAL group is so far along https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 and that their chimeric soluble protein technology has passed early clinicals for CHICKENS. The rest of it is just a regulatory decision to bypass the normal safety protocols.

 

[BillTre]

• No vaccine for Coronavirus (unlike measles).
• No pre-existing population of people previously exposed to the Coronavirus who have developed a natural immunity (unlike measles).
• Population of those attending a scientific meeting are probably more likely to have a vaccine to an established disease than the normal (non-scientifically educated public).
• Caution in the face of the unknown (coronavirus not yet well characterized).

The first two points are covered in R0.

It has occurred to me that R0 does not entirely cover the first two points.
They are also reflective in the size of the population that could be reasonably considered "at risk" (the non-immune population).
While, the RO reflects how rapidly a virus could spread though the population, but the total potential population that could be affected is the % of the population that has no immunity to the virus.
This reflects big potential long term differences in the effect the virus might have on public health and on going life.

This is also why people are so interested in how soon a vaccine might be available for different parts of the population. This protects people by:

• Reducing the R0 due to the virus running directly into an immune person and not transmitting
• Reducing the total amount of large scale damage it could do to the population in the longer term (smaller percentage of the population might die of disease).
• Smaller percentage of the population can spread virus to others (reducing the population of the newly infected).

 

[chemisttree]

If I get through this coronovirus business I have the inestimable pleasure of deciding whether to take the risk with the Pneumonia vaccine everyone in Aus is supposed to get when they turn 65. Trouble is their have been recorded deaths due to it being a live vaccine and those on immune system suppressants. But then again getting Pneumonia is not exactly great for people like me. I finally decided when that comes around to consult an immunologist.

Thanks
Bill

Careful not to throw in with the anti-vaxxers! You might consider chloroquine with everything going on in your case. The black box warnings should be reviewed but it might be especially appropriate in your case.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It [measles] does not have the potential to affect most of the population within the next few years

Neither, really does Cov-19.

Let's adopt as a worst-case scenario that this spreads as far and wide as the 1918-1919 flu. Given what we know about mortality rates, this would kill 8-10M people, half above 70, half below. That would move flu and flu-like diseases from the #4 killer to the #2, and bump the overall death rate by 15% (from 57M to ~66M people) This is less than 1% of the population.

This would be a terrible tragedy, and the world should work on avoiding it, but this is not the Black Death. And that's the worst case scenario.

 

[chemisttree]

I don’t think that would be the worst. The worst case scenario is that for whatever reason this disrupts large economies a great deal and causes a global economic and military response.

 

[mfb]

The first two points are covered in R0.

If you consider vaccinations in R0 then measles have a lower R0. So low that it doesn't spread quickly in the US and stays in localized outbreaks (for now), which means R0<1 as soon as people realize there are measles cases somewhere. The R0 in an unvaccinated population is much larger, but that's not the right comparison.

Let's adopt as a worst-case scenario that this spreads as far and wide as the 1918-1919 flu. Given what we know about mortality rates, this would kill 8-10M people, half above 70, half below.

Where do you get these numbers from? The Spanish flu infected ~1/4 of the world population. That would be 2 billion today. With a ~1% case fatality rate we get 20 million deaths.
But this is the fatality rate if everyone can get a hospital bed if needed. If 10% of those infected need a hospital bed then we have ~2.5% of the population needing one. The US has 3 hospital beds for 1000 people, that's about a factor 10 too few. Germany has 8 beds per 1000, Japan is leading among the OECD with 13 beds per 1000. Sure, not everyone will be sick at the same time, but it would still overwhelm the healthcare systems. In addition most of these beds are used already, of course. If not even first world countries can easily accommodate everyone with severe disease, how will third world countries handle this? What I'm saying here: If 1/4 of the population gets infected - as we had it for the 1918-1919 flu - then the case fatality rate will be much higher.
The worst case scenario is tens of millions of deaths.

 

[StatGuy2000]

If I ever get sick, I want those placebos. They seem to be able to cure anything some fraction of the time!

I don't understand why the APS isn't cancelling the meeting because of measles. There are more cases in the US, it has a much, much higher R0, and a slightly higher fatality rate for the non-elderly (there is very little recent data on the elderly and measles for obvious reasons). Why is Coronavirus causing this panic when measles is demonstrably worse in the US along every axis?

@Vanadium 50, you raise a good point in terms of the panic over COVID-19 versus the measles.

At the same time, I would have thought that most people attending the APS meeting would fall into the demographic that would have been vaccinated with the MMR (mumps, measles, and rubella) vaccine.

 

[atyy]

I don't understand why the APS isn't cancelling the meeting because of measles. There are more cases in the US, it has a much, much higher R0, and a slightly higher fatality rate for the non-ederly (there is very little recent data on the elderly and measles for obvious reasons). Why is Coronavirus causing this panic when measles is demonstrably worse in the US along every axis?

It's not panic, it's socially responsible behaviour. About 10% of cases need intensive care, which would overwhelm health systems if large numbers of people get it at the same time. Although it may end up spreading worldwide, slowing its spread can save lives (by making sure that hospitals have enough space, staff and equipment to treat people).

 

[Vanadium 50]

Where do you get these numbers from?

Splitting the population into above and below age 70, where the fatality rate is an order of magnitude different.

Spanish flue is by taking deaths divided by mortality.

 

[OCR]

I just don't know what to say:

Lol. . . well don't say. .

. . . their immune system is overeating.

Yeah, I know you fixed that, but Alex replied to your post before your edit. . .

I guess ? .

.

 

[mfb]

Spanish flue is by taking deaths divided by mortality.

At 1/4 the world population, roughly. More people -> more people infected. If I scale your numbers to the current world population then we would have ~35 millions? And that's still with the case fatality rate of a well-running healthcare system.

 

[chemisttree]

If 10% of those infected need a hospital bed then we have ~2.5% of the population needing one. The US has 3 hospital beds for 1000 people, that's about a factor 10 too few. Germany has 8 beds per 1000, Japan is leading among the OECD with 13 beds per 1000.

I’ve read that Great Britain only has 15 beds available for ECMO right now. It won’t take much to tip the NHS into crisis.

 

[atyy]

And of course, there is the hope that if we slow the spread and allow excellent health care systems to work at their best, maybe the fatalities can even be reduced below 1%, maybe 0.5% if the severe cases can be very aggressively supported.

 

[Pythagorean]

using data from john hopkins github, here's what I got for top 5 countries in terms of mortality (data is two days old now). China's recovered count is converging on active cases and their mortality count is leveling out, but we're seeing cascading outbreaks around the world.

All countries reporting as of the 28th don't fit nicely in an image, but you can see the spread timing here:

This is an interesting opportunity to study rapid disease spread through modern socioeconomic pathways.

Here's some countries that have shown resilience (however note that Germany has jumped to over 100 since Friday, as has France).

Here's the latest reported snapshot from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/