COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[mfb]

Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising Coronavirus cases
So far nothing that is being enforced, but discussions are ongoing.

Umea University's Dr Joacim Rocklov told The Telegraph newspaper that after being an outlier earlier in the year, Sweden was shifting to a strategy closer to those adopted by most other governments.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's a plot comparing the COVID-19 cases per million (seven day rolling average) in the United States (black line) vs European Union + United Kingdom (red line):

(data from the ECDC)

As noted earlier in the thread, the per capita infection rate in Europe has appeared to surpass that of the US. The rapid growth of infections in Europe definitely seems like cause for concern. Cases also appear to be rising in the US, though at a lower rate than in Europe.

 

[bhobba]

Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising Coronavirus cases
So far nothing that is being enforced, but discussions are ongoing.

I never thought Sweden's approach was a good idea. Nor are lockdows worth it except as a stop-gap until proper measures are in place. Why people do not base their approach on Taiwan beats me. The only issue I can see is what happened here in Aus - you do not need to do that much - but what you need to do you must do with no stuff ups. It has shown government bureaucracies-politicians shortcomings only too easily.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

October 20 - https://foxchattanooga.com/news/cor...who-died-on-flight-had-covid-19-officials-say

DALLAS COUNTY, Texas (WOAI/KABB) - A woman who died while on a flight from Arizona to Texas had COVID-19, officials said this week. Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced the woman's death on Sunday during a media briefing. He said the woman, in her 30s, was on the flight when she died on July 25th.

Odd this comes out about 3 months later, but perhaps testing and/or autopsy was involved. Perhaps the reduced oxygen at altitude precipitated cardiac distress during the flight? She apparently died after the plane landed.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronav...ports-592-cases-of-covid-19-3-deaths/2462390/

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's very odd that a judge would announce such a thing - apparently on Twitter.
Apparently she also had additional medical conditions. No idea exactly what that means. This might be related to your autopsy theory.

 

[russ_watters]

Sounds like a likely case of "died with COVID" vs "died of COVID" to me.

It's very odd that a judge would announce such a thing - apparently on Twitter.

It looks like a daily county press release and follow-up briefing to me. Why the article links it from twitter is what I find most odd. Presumably these are posted on a county website. It would agree it is odd that a judge gave/participated in such a briefing though.

[edit]
Well that was easy: https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/judge-press-releases.php

 

[PeroK]

Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising Coronavirus cases

Belgium has had more cases in the past two weeks (115,000) than Sweden has had in total (109,000). France had 41,600 cases today alone. And Switzerland over 5,000 cases today (a country of only 8.6 million).

 

[mfb]

... at a time where these countries relaxed regulations.

Belgium does over twice as many tests as Sweden by the way (both absolute and per capita as the population is similar).
Overall, Belgium performed 3.7 million tests and found 250,000 cases, while Sweden as of Oct 4 performed 1.8 million tests and found 127,000 cases. That's almost exactly the same rate of positive tests.

 

[PeroK]

Belgium does over twice as many tests as Sweden by the way (both absolute and per capita as the population is similar).
Overall, Belgium performed 3.7 million tests and found 250,000 cases, while Sweden as of Oct 4 performed 1.8 million tests and found 127,000 cases. That's almost exactly the same rate of positive tests.

Belgium (pop 11.6 million) had 16,700 cases yesterday - which is, I believe, by far the highest daily total per capita for any major country at any time. And, it takes them to over 130,000 cases in just 15 days. You cannot compare this with Sweden's 127,000 cases in eight months.

This "tsunami" of cases in Belgium must be hammering their health service (and, in fact, the deputy PM is in intensive care with Coronavirus). Meanwhile, Belgium already has the second highest per capita death rate (after Peru) of any major country.

And, although Belgium is by far the worst in Europe now, there are many European countries with high numbers (I'll spare you the list), but Sweden is not among them. Compared to the rest of Europe, it's still largely under control in Sweden.

 

[PeroK]

PS This site gives a list of cases per capita across Europe for the last seven days. The Czech Republic is actually slightly worse than Belgium, with almost 600 cases per 100,000 per day. Sweden is near the bottom (lowest number of cases) next to Germany with 56 cases per 100,000 per day.

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

 

[Vanadium 50]

Sweden is near the bottom (lowest number of cases)

Yeah, but Sweden is Just Plain A Bad Country, as discussed upthread.

But that's not what UI wanted to write about. France has imposed an overnight curfew. Is the thinking that it's easier to catch Covid at night?

 

[anorlunda]

France has imposed an overnight curfew. Is the thinking that it's easier to catch Covid at night?

My guess is yes. My guess is that social drinking of alcohol is a major contributor to spreading. The whole reason that people drink socially is to reduce inhibitions. Then, they stand closer and speak louder.

The obvious counter to that is prohibition. In the USA that is perhaps the most hated word in our history. Alcohol taxes are also vitally important to governments. With the wine culture in France, it is even harder to even think of prohibition. It would be political suicide to utter that word in public.

My guess is that nighttime curfews are an attempt to reduce public drinking without completely banning it. People could continue to drink in their homes because it is not drinking per se but public drinking that spreads the virus.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, then why wait until 0600 to end it?

At 0600, people are already leaving for work. These tend not to be the most affluent, so there is definitely a disparate impact.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

With new Coronavirus cases shattering records on a daily basis, Utah’s hospitals are expected to begin rationing care in a week or two.

According to a friend, two COVID-19 patients from Montana have been received at Harborview hospital in Seattle. Apparently they cannot receive the necessary care (ECMO) in Montana. According to Harborview, Harborview Medical Center is the only Level I adult and pediatric trauma and regional burn center in Washington, Alaska, Montana and Idaho!

Update (Oct 27) - An 18-year-old freshman at the University of Dayton in Ohio died Thursday “apparently due to complications from" coronavirus, school officials said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/obitua...sity-dayton-apparently-dies-covid-19-n1244790

According to the University of Dayton’s Covid-19 dashboard, which has tracked Covid-19 cases since Aug. 10, the school reported 34 active people with the virus and a total of 1,417 cases, as of Monday morning.

Fatalities are happening to young folk.

 

[StevieTNZ]

NZ has beaten a second wave of COVID-19, but apparently some are not happy about it

See for eg https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertai...nd-covid-response/J645WLL7EOVZM2N2V7UGCFJZZ4/

 

[ChemAir]

NZ has beaten a second wave of COVID-19, but apparently some are not happy about it

See for eg https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/covid-19-coronavirus-fox-news-host-laura-ingraham-attacks-new-zealand-covid-response/

Bad link for me.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Bad link for me.

Yup, the original didn't paste as well as I had thought. Have edited the post to lead to the correct web page.

 

[mfb]

It was used by Ingraham to suggest that the policy was new and in response to "rising Covid case numbers".

Cases in the community are up 300%! From 0 to 0.

Meanwhile the US has set new records for new recorded cases. ~70,000/day, now increasingly from more rural states.

 

[StevieTNZ]

There is some criticism that schools should stay closed, while others say its fine to open them.

What amazes me is perhaps probably the first time ever, Barron Trump has been used as an example of why schools should re-open. According to Trump, he overcame Covid-19 in 15 mins. That has got to be a world-first.

Read for yourself -- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/co...in-some-us-states/DTMXPIZTEXJZ67OVRKQSNVV74E/

(note this post is not intended to be political)

 

[russ_watters]

Cases in the community are up 300%! From 0 to 0.

Meanwhile the US has set new records for new recorded cases. ~70,000/day, now increasingly from more rural states.

Cases in the USA are up 300% from 350,000/day to a new record of 70,000/day!

 

[mfb]

Cases in the USA are up 300% from 350,000/day to a new record of 70,000/day!

Huh?

 

[russ_watters]

Huh?

Weren't you listing two examples of nonsensical statistics? I was just combining them into one.

...Though there is meaning in both, if you look for it.

 

[mfb]

The 300% up was a joke, because that's the only way you can read "increasing numbers" into New Zealand's handling of the pandemic, by making nonsensical comparisons like that.

The US numbers are not a joke.

 

[russ_watters]

The 300% up was a joke, because that's the only way you can read "increasing numbers" into New Zealand's statistics, by making nonsensical comparisons like that.

The US numbers are not a joke.

Aren't they similarly nonsensical? Really, you don't see it?

 

[mfb]

If you have a point then make it, but these questions are silly.

 

[russ_watters]

If you have a point then make it, but these questions are silly.

Your point/joke, not mine. You listed/acknowledged one nonsensical statistic, then evidently listed another that you don't (but should) realize is nonsensical as well, for a similar or even worse reason (the baseline is arbitrary or just plain wrong). The way you wrote the post, it almost implies you intended irony, but I figured not.

So here it is:
The second statistic is also nonsensical because in March/April the testing missed somewhere on the order of 80-90% of the infections. Thus, the "new record" of 70,000 is "up" from the prior record of 150-300,000 (based on data from March/April).

 

[mfb]

Meanwhile the US has set new records for new recorded cases. ~70,000/day, now increasingly from more rural states.

It's a new record for recorded cases. Like it or not.
We wasted so many posts just on re-iterating that the US failed to find most infections in March/April (which makes NZ look even better in comparison, of course)? You could have written that instead of making some obscure comparisons.

 

[Astronuc]

Airborne Transmission of COVID-19: Q&A with Jonathan Samet
Feature Story | October 26, 2020
https://www.nationalacademies.org/n...nsmission-of-covid-19-q-a-with-jonathan-samet

A: The science has advanced rapidly on airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, not surprisingly given the many gaps in understanding and the urgency of filling them. Above all, I was impressed by the strength of the evidence for airborne transmission by both larger particles (droplets) and smaller particles (aerosols). Transmission by aerosols is particularly important because they can travel across rooms. The workshop took on the challenge of carefully defining droplets and aerosols and made a proposal about the size cut-off dividing them. This should help to bring some uniformity to discussions of airborne transmission.

During the workshop we also learned more about the size range of aerosols generated by people infected with SARS-CoV-2. These aerosols were shown to be an important transmission pathway by the presenters. The workshop also touched on concentrations of the virus in the air under different circumstances, and how the highest concentrations of aerosols are closest to an infected person. These discussions have important implications for mitigation measures like masks and physical distancing.

But, CDC indicates young people are most unlikely to wear a mask:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-young-people-most-likely-not-wear-mask-190030605.html

 

[PeroK]

So here it is:
The second statistic is also nonsensical because in March/April the testing missed somewhere on the order of 80-90% of the infections. Thus, the "new record" of 70,000 is "up" from the prior record of 150-300,000 (based on data from March/April).

If you look at the worldwide figures, the daily total has risen from about 80,000 cases per day in March to nearly 500,000 cases per day now. On the other hand, the number of daily deaths worldwide has remained in the 5,000 - 7,000 range with little overall variation from month to month.

PS In fact, it has never returned to its March peak.

To take Italy as an example: the daily cases now are 20,000+ per day, compared with 6,000 at the peak in March; but, the daily deaths are around 200 per day (this is still bad), but not close to the 800+ per day back in March.

 

[mfb]

Some of that decrease comes from improved treatment. Hospitalizations can be a better comparison. They are quite high in many European countries at the moment. Still not perfect, of course.
Here is Italy. As of Oct 26 it was at half its earlier peak, but with a rapid rise.
It's excluding ICU but adding these doesn't change the picture.