COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[hmmm27]

We could invite all of the young, healthy, and willing to 3 or 4+ week parties in places like Los Vegas or Disney world.

Nah, they could still escape. How about cruise ships ? They aren't doing anything.

Don't come back until everybody's immune.

 

[StevieTNZ]

I thought social distancing would be a wise move to tell people to follow. Except, we have the following happening instead:

 

[WWGD]

I thought social distancing would be a wise move to tell people to follow. Except, we have the following happening instead:
View attachment 272629

And then we have the riots on the left. Just to show stupidity does not know political boundaries.

 

[Evo]

And then we have the riots on the left. Just to show stupidity does not know political boundaries.

What riots? You mean the recent ones that were found to have been started by White Supremacists?

https://www.wsls.com/news/virginia/...supremacists-disguised-as-black-lives-matter/

But let's not sidetrack this thread.

 

[atyy]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10...leading-technology-in-the-covid-vaccine-race/

Interesting article about the mRNA vaccine development by Moderna, and by Pfizer and BioNTech. I'm certainly skeptical of the 90% claim for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine until the data is released, but it makes me feel better knowing that Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci are involved in it (having read a little bit of their work on other subjects).

 

[stefan r]

Nah, they could still escape. How about cruise ships ? They aren't doing anything.

Don't come back until everybody's immune.

A few bypasses or escapes would not make much difference. Escaping from Los Vegas would be an ordeal. If you escape you lose your free food, free housing, and your event tickets. You also invalidated your medical insurance so if you did need a doctor you would end up paying out of pocket. This is simply not going to happen very frequently.

The biggest challenge would be preventing people from getting a high exposure instead of waiting for the low exposure to incubate.

Cruise ships would work well. Also islands. There is an ethical problem with the idea of evacuating a native population. In the case of Los Vegas the mayor was on cable news proposing early opening of Los Vegas. That makes it stick in my mind as a default location for virus fest.

Universities would be an obvious place to attempt inoculation. For the first six to eight weeks after inoculation have in person classes while the professors lecture via zoom on a projector. Keep immune compromised students on zoom too. You would get a reasonably close to scientific comparison of the low dose inoculation versus the community spread infection. The New York Times reports 252,000 cases on at colleges and universities. There have been 80 reported deaths and most of them are staff. Inoculating 100 million low risk people would result in much less than 32,000 deaths.

College classes are a lot less fun than music festivals IMO. Wearing masks everywhere along with testing and tracing is pretty easy. Covid19 should be easy to kill quickly. Having failed to take the easy road we could at least enjoy life while reducing the harm.

 

[atyy]

Infectious-Disease Expert Urges For Caution Over Pfizer's Vaccine. Here's Why

Possible, but we know people are at least 10 times less likely to show symptoms. That means less coughing, and it almost certainly means lower viral loads in general. It will certainly help.

In an interview, Ugur Sahin says that while the 90% reduction refers to symptoms, and not transmission, he has reasonable hopes for a 50% reduction in transmission.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799
"I'm very confident that transmission between people will be reduced by such a highly effective vaccine - maybe not 90% but maybe 50% - but we should not forget that even that could result in a dramatic reduction of the pandemic spread," he said.

 

[bhobba]

What riots? You mean the recent ones that were found to have been started by White Supremacists?

I don't like this left right thing either during ordinary times, but especially during a pandemic. My observation from here in Aus, it is not the philosophy of the government, it is how well they run it. In my view both sides have not done a stellar job in that regard.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

A San Antonio family is making plans for a 4-year-old boy, Raiden Gonzalez has lost both his parents, Adan Gonzalez III and Mariah Salinas, to COVID-19. Adan Gonzalez III tested positive on June 3, was hospitalized on June 9 and died in a San Antonio hospital on June 26.

At the beginning of October, Mariah Salinas had a sudden onset of symptoms at home. She was rushed to the hospital where her health declined rapidly. "She was gone within 12 hours," said Bryant. Mariah, just 29 years old, died 102 days after her husband, who was 33. Both parents were relatively young.

Source: https://abc11.com/raiden-gonzalez-t...-loses-coronavirus-san-antonio-covid/7939647/

Justin Hunter's parents were quarantined separately at home and eventually hospitalized. His father, 59, died July 26. His mother, 57, died July 30, he told the station. Hunter said his parents met in college and had been married for 35 years. CBS News has reached out to people close to the Hunters for more information.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-deaths-17-year-old-boy-both-parents/

 

[mfb]

@stefan r: Death is not the only negative effect the disease can have. How many millions or even tens of millions do you want to leave with long-term lung or heart damage?

 

[morrobay]

A San Antonio family is making plans for a 4-year-old boy, Raiden Gonzalez has lost both his parents, Adan Gonzalez III and Mariah Salinas, to COVID-19. Adan Gonzalez III tested positive on June 3, was hospitalized on June 9 and died in a San Antonio hospital on June 26.

At the beginning of October, Mariah Salinas had a sudden onset of symptoms at home. She was rushed to the hospital where her health declined rapidly. "She was gone within 12 hours," said Bryant. Mariah, just 29 years old, died 102 days after her husband, who was 33. Both parents were relatively young.

Source: https://abc11.com/raiden-gonzalez-t...-loses-coronavirus-san-antonio-covid/7939647/

Yes both were fairly young. And both appear very overweight, maybe diabetic too.

 

[StevieTNZ]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has. Some other countries, garbage as an administration.

 

[atyy]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has. Some other countries, garbage as an administration.

Are NZ people brutally honest like AM Show Interview from self-isolation in NZ (4:32 -4:50)

 

[waternohitter]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has. Some other countries, garbage as an administration.

I strongly agree with you.

 

[Astronuc]

Reuters - Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...han-thought-italian-study-shows-idUSKBN27V0KF

Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a little town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy. But Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show that 11,6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020, had developed Coronavirus antibodies well before February.

A further specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.

It showed that four cases dated back to the first week of October were also positive for antibodies neutralizing the virus, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters.

 

[Rive]

Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows

Regarding this study, there are some concerns about the credibility/interpretation of the original study

My humble opinion is that it's better to take it as a proof that some kind of cross-reaction exist between antibodies from older infections and Covid-19 than proof of early presence of Covid-19.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has.

It was wise of the NZ government to constitute their country on an island (well, two major islands). The Federated States of Micronesia must have the best government in the world - zero cases.

 

[atyy]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908
Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

 

[Ygggdrasil]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908
Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

More importantly, it should be easier to distribute than the Pfizer vaccine:

A key advantage of Moderna’s vaccine is that it does not need ultra-cold storage like Pfizer’s, making it easier to distribute. Moderna expects it to be stable at standard refrigerator temperatures of 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 48°F) for 30 days and it can be stored for up to 6 months at -20 degrees Celsius.

Pfizer’s vaccine must be shipped and stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius, the sort of temperature typical of an Antarctic winter. At standard refrigerator temperatures, it can be stored for up to five days.

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...ffective-in-preventing-covid-19-idUSKBN27W1EJ via https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/coronovirus-vaccine-progress.992484/post-6417888

As with the Pfizer/BioNTech trial, the primary endpoint measured in the trial was symptomatic COVID-19 disease, so it could be possible that the vaccine does not prevent asymptomatic infection. We need more information from the trial to determine whether the vaccine is able to block infection and transmission of the virus or whether it merely prevent symptoms of the disease.

 

[StevieTNZ]

It was wise of the NZ government to constitute their country on an island (well, two major islands). The Federated States of Micronesia must have the best government in the world - zero cases.

Well, it was the British Government that constitued three islands as NZ.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Are NZ people brutally honest like AM Show Interview from self-isolation in NZ (4:32 -4:50)

I would hope so!

 

[mfb]

Reuters - Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...han-thought-italian-study-shows-idUSKBN27V0KF

They claim to find antibodies in 10% of the samples from 2019. That's of the scale of the March/April wave in many places. It can't have been the same virus, that would have flooded hospitals and we didn't see that. Whatever formed these antibodies - it was something else. As long as they don't identify that "something else" it's unclear what we can learn from that study.Sweden stages Coronavirus U-turn, banning public events with more than eight people

 

[russ_watters]

I have not heard that, but if the premise is correct, your conclusions follow.

It's hard to argue that the lockdown rules are completely science-based. For example, the prohibition of cover charges in NYC bars. As we all know, cover charges kill.

From Friday's paper:

While it may seem counterintuitive that state officials aren’t turning back to stay-at-home orders and business closures as daily cases top 5,000, public health experts who spoke to Spotlight PA said widespread lockdowns aren’t the answer...

In Pennsylvania, there’s enough contact tracing data to show that infections are spreading because of small, private gatherings, where people let their guard down among family and friends.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...-tracing-masks-small-gatherings-20201113.html

But now:

Philadelphia will close indoor restaurant dining, gyms, and museums starting on Friday and will require office workers to work remotely in an effort to slow the spread of the Coronavirus as new cases surge.

The new restrictions will last through Jan. 1, and include limits on outdoor gatherings and a ban on public and private indoor gatherings — making it a violation of city regulations for residents to hold holiday gatherings with anyone outside their own households...

They also require high schools and colleges to hold classes virtually. Day cares, elementary schools, and middle schools will be permitted to continue in-person instruction.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...ng-hospital-news-20201116.html#card-996471612

Restrictions on private indoor gatherings are largely meaningless because as far as I can tell there is no way to enforce such things (but I'll let you know if I'm wrong about that...I'm dating someone who lives in Philly and that would complicate things...). But closing schools and forcing businesses to close is something the government can easily do, so they are doing it.

 

[Borg]

I just watched an evening newscast where a hospital nurse reported that she has had people on their deathbed who still think that the virus is a hoax. Wow.

https://abc.com/shows/world-news-tonight/episode-guide/2020-11/16-monday-november-16-2020 - seven minutes into the video.

 

[russ_watters]

Who is "we"? Because a great many areas of the nation barely closed this spring, if at all. Many places had their shelter or closure orders overturned. Many areas had orders with no teeth, providing no incentive to abide by them (except of course the prospect of controlling the pandemic).

Well I guess "success" depends on the thresholds you set. We have cell phone location data that says in counties with stay-at-home orders, the average drop in mobility was 83% a few weeks in:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

But in any case, questioning the efficacy of the restrictions on COVID mitigation wasn't what you were talking about; economic impact was. So you seem to not be following your own point.

The arguements you tote out regarding our supposed kowledge of the possible effects of "lockdown" based on previous events are similarly shaky. You essentially blame 100% of the economic downturn early in the pandemic on lockdowns without considering even obvious additional contributions to that effect. What sort of other things might have taken a toll on the economy, you might ask? How about global uncertainty in the face of an emerging pandemic? How about a gross failure of the highest authority in the land to manage a remotely coherent or even logical strategy in the face of an emerging pandemic? How about the fears that were present relating to a largely unknown and unpredictable disease, do you think they even had the slightest of impact on decisions that tend to drive the market?

Your prior point was that when people die, they leave the market. That's true, and it is quantifiable. Also, the impact of staying home sick is quantifiable. But those numbers are tiny compared with the economic downturn, so they were not a large fraction of it.

Fear and uncertainty is hard to quantify except in the stock market, and it isn't reflecting fear and uncertainty.
The effects of the shutdowns show in how the GDP dropped in Q2 when the shutdowns were implemented and then rose in Q3 when they were lifted (and vice versa for unemployment).

...even though large areas of the country more or less stayed the course through the rise of the pandemic, the economic damage and other things like shortages were felt fairly broadly and almost immediately.

Supply shortages are caused by the production in one place effecting supply everywhere, so they aren't indicative of regional effects. And most economic data are presented nationally. But the impact of shutdowns can be seen in unemployment data at the state level:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/4...nemployment-rates-in-april-2020.htm?view_full

One example: the highest unemployment was in Nevada, almost certainly because their economy is heavily dependent on tourism.

Also: You need to watch your tone and stop with the insults. We require civility on this forum.

 

[StevieTNZ]

I just watched an evening newscast where a hospital nurse reported that she has had people on their deathbed who still think that the virus is a hoax. Wow.

Sounds like some ex-Harold Camping followers.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Russ,

A study on quarantined Marine recruits (DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2029717) seems to support The Philadelphia Story. (sorry...couldn't resist). Quarantine or not made little difference (and what difference there was goes the wrong way) but sharing a bedroom or a bathroom does.

Also, a few months ago, I commented that geography alters ones perceptions: in places like New Jersey, the rate is such that most people know at least one person who died of Covid, but in places like Vermont, few do. Well, I know - rather, knew - two casualties of the lockdown - one accidental death and one suicide.

 

[russ_watters]

The proposal is not to repeat what was done before:
[Osterholm: the government could borrow enough money to pay for a package that would cover lost income for individuals and governments during a shutdown. ]

If that was referenced in this conversation, I missed it. But regardless, that's a hypothetical from a member of an administration that won't exist for two more months, so it can have no impact on shutdown plans that are being enacted as we speak. Also, it's a stretch to even call it a "proposal", since it is one guy's idea, which at that point he hadn't even shared with his new boss, who doesn't agree with it:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/bid...ould-control-pandemic-and-revive-economy.html

This is purely a hypothetical scenario, but I don't think a repetition (that no one plans!) would be worse. The first time everything was chaotic and unexpected. It's still somewhat chaotic but way less than in April.
[snip] You can't assign all of the economic downturn to a specific set of government measures.

I don't think chaos was the primary driver of the damage. I'm not even really sure what you mean by that -- I didn't see much of what I'd consider "chaos". Shutting businesses and laying off workers was the damage. Yes, I'm speculating, but it is a pretty logical speculation: in order to survive a downturn in business, a business needs a war chest of money. Businesses that had their war chests depleted have not had time to replenish them. This isn't a matter of the weak businesses dying off and the strong that survived are fine now. They're not; lots are damaged and in more danger because of the damage.

And as I'm typing this, I heard this on the news, from a business owner in Philadelphia, where new restrictions were announced today:
"We believe we are going to see a worse wave of business closures this time than we saw thus far, because we used all of our resources to get through this summer."

And of course the economic downturn started before the government measures and went way beyond their impact.

What data are you looking at to support that? Here's the weekly new unemployment claims for the US:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Most of the jump happened in the 3rd week in March: the week the shutdowns started, and the peak was in mid-April. Then they started dropping as businesses gradually re-opened.

GDP in the US dropped 5% in Q1, the quarter that ended just as the restrictions were being put in place, and was down 31% in Q2. It's pretty close to an exact match of 2 weeks of shutdown following 10 of normalcy in Q1, to the Q2 drop. Then things mostly re-opened in Q3 and the GDP went back up.

The only indicator I know of that showed anything before the shutdowns started was the stock market, which is a leading indicator, not an indicator of at-the-time damage.

Closing a specific set of businesses is not a lockdown (@nsaspook). A true lockdown - what we had in Italy for example - would ban the gatherings of people not living in the same household.

Granted -- the media throws around that term wantonly and I need be more careful about how I use it. We primarily have had shutdowns, not lockdowns. But still, a ban on gatherings not in the same household - which Philly just re-implemented, isn't a lockdown either, it's just a stay-at-home order. It only becomes a lockdown if it is enforced. I don't know if Italy enforced theirs, but the USA did not. As a practical matter, Western countries are unable and as a philosophical matter are unwilling to enforce them.

They are not completely stupid and they didn't start doing this yesterday. They see an increase in traced contacts from small gatherings relative to what happened before.

I don't think they are stupid. What they are is woefully under-manned, and incapable of tracing the majority of infections.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/coron...lly-contact-tracing-pa-nj-cases-20201027.html
https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...ng-hospital-news-20201116.html#card-996471612

Half of people don't cooperate. Half of those who do don't know who infected them. And as of this past week, less than a third get traced at all (the article is almost 3 weeks old). So that's just 8% of cases being successfully traced. I don't know if they are prioritizing the tracing, but again, logic tells me that a small social gathering where the participants all know each other (and later share COVID status with each other) would be the easiest to trace. It's an awfully big margin for error and potential systemic bias.

 

[Astronuc]

How bad could it get?

A nurse at a strained El Paso hospital says the sickest COVID-19 patients are put in a doctor-less room called 'the pit' where they are given 3 chances to be revived before workers let them die
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-el-paso-hospital-nurse-lawanna-rivers-video-2020-11

What is happening in El Paso is similar to what happened in parts of NY City during late March into April where hospitals got overwhelmed and morgues and funeral homes backed up, or overflowing. Some bodies were not claimed so they were placed in mass graves.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/04/27/hart-island-mass-grave-coronavirus-burials/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...-island-cemetery-shorter-deadline-claim-dead/


https://www.fox5ny.com/news/hart-island-burials-soar-during-coronavirus-pandemic
From March 3 to June 4, crews buried 725 people on Hart Island.

The peak came the week of April 6, when 138 adults were buried, according to data from the Department of Correction. (The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner does not provide the cause of death of whoever is sent to Hart, so it isn't clear if these were all COVID-19 victims.)

 

[mfb]

I don't think chaos was the primary driver of the damage. I'm not even really sure what you mean by that -- I didn't see much of what I'd consider "chaos".

Uncertainty about the future, often even uncertainty about the current state - what is allowed, what is not, will that change again tomorrow? Can our business stay open, and if yes how do we need to modify it?

What data are you looking at to support that? Here's the weekly new unemployment claims for the US:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The economic downturn didn't start with unemployment filings. It started when people bought less stuff, which started before any public measures were implemented (and pretty much in parallel everywhere independent of when exactly the government acted). We had this discussion months ago when it was new, I don't think we need to repeat it.
You can also look at Sweden if you like. No businesses were forced to close - but their economy still went down dramatically.

GDP in the US dropped 5% in Q1, the quarter that ended just as the restrictions were being put in place, and was down 31% in Q2. It's pretty close to an exact match of 2 weeks of shutdown following 10 of normalcy in Q1, to the Q2 drop.

You can't see that in quarterly data and the hand-waving isn't helping.

I don't think they are stupid. What they are is woefully under-manned, and incapable of tracing the majority of infections.

So why do you accuse them of drawing stupid conclusions?
You don't need much statistics to notice that more and more infections can be traced to family/friends gatherings. The statement was about a change. Earlier more infections were traced to other sources, recently more infections were traced to family/friends gatherings.

A nurse at a strained El Paso hospital says the sickest COVID-19 patients are put in a doctor-less room called 'the pit' where they are given 3 chances to be revived before workers let them die
[...]
What is happening in El Paso is similar to what happened in parts of NY City during late March into April where hospitals got overwhelmed and morgues and funeral homes backed up, or overflowing. Some bodies were not claimed so they were placed in mass graves.

Total COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US reached new records - this is not surprising.

@Vanadium 50: Looking back at your earlier comment, would you agree that the system in El Paso is overwhelmed? If not, how much worse does it need to get?