COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Astronuc]

Apparently Seattle's and Washington State's efforts (quarantine/isolation, social distancing, closing public events and discouraging gatherings) is working somewhat to reduce the number of cases.

Wa state reports 1187 confirmed COVID-19 cases (66 deaths) today. Yesterday it was 1012, and the day before 904. I've been tracking this daily, as well as NY.

NY State confirms 2,382 COVID-19 cases today, yesterday 1374, and the day before 950 cases.

 

[BillTre]

I'm at greater risk of an injurious car accident on the way to Walmart than I am of spreading the disease in church.

I would like to see your data on that one.

 

[russ_watters]

I'm at greater risk of an injurious car accident on the way to Walmart than I am of spreading the disease in church.

I would like to see your data on that one.

Let's try:
In South Korea, most of the cases of Coronavirus come from a single church population. Conservatively, as of this edition of wikipedia, 9,000 of 230,000 members of the church are symptomatic, or 3.9%. That's the best current data we have for your odds of getting the Coronavirus in church if one person in the congregation gets infected and attends church ("spreading" was an odd choice of words, and a mismatch...). Note: that's more than one location, so the members get around.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shincheonji_Church_of_Jesus#Membership

Annually, 3 million Americans are injured in car accidents. If every American averages one trip per day, including multi-passenger trips, then one trip to Walmart carries roughly a 0.000092% chance of injury in a car accident. Or 0.000046% on the way to Walmart.
https://www.driverknowledge.com/car-accident-statistics/

 

[chirhone]

A few words from Clint Eastwood:

Heartbreak Ridge: You Improvise, You Overcome, You Adapt

Martial law?

I wonder why Iran would release 80,000 of its prisoners. How can they take them back? Maybe the people in the country is easy to find because they know each other so have nowhere to hide? Would the US do that too?

Some in my country are also proposing to release the maximum security prisoners, following other country.

Maybe they can become the frontlines, the first wave to shield us from this corona invasion.

 

[russ_watters]

I wonder why Iran would release 80,000 of its prisoners. How can they take them back? Maybe the people in the country is easy to find because they know each other so have nowhere to hide? Would the US do that too?

Some in my country are also proposing to release the maximum security prisoners, following other country.

I don't see the point in releasing prisoners. However:

My nearest big city, Philadelphia, has announced they will not be arresting people for "nonviolent" crimes, because the criminal justice system has been shut down and there's no way to process them for bail, trial, etc. Otherwise they'd just be arresting them and leaving them in jail indefinitely.

So if you happen to be in Philadelphia and have been considered stealing drugs from a prostitute, now would be a good time for it.

 

[anorlunda]

I don't see the point in releasing prisoners.

It depends on whether the virus is spreading inside the prison gates. It is analogous to that cruise ship with the virus onboard. It makes for very bad press to not let them off the ship.

But in terms of flattening the curve, locking down the prisons makes the prisoners less exposed to the virus than the general public. At least for the time being.

 

[vxiaoyu18]

The virus will not impose mercy and rules on human beings. The sooner quarantine measures are taken, the safer it will be. On one side is the economy, on the other side is life. We believe that life and family are more important than wealth. Only people living a happy life can create greater economic value. Therefore, our government has chosen to protect people's lives and has invested 19.73 billion us dollars to fight the epidemic.

 

[chirhone]

The virus will not impose mercy and rules on human beings. The sooner quarantine measures are taken, the safer it will be. On one side is the economy, on the other side is life. We believe that life and family are more important than wealth. Only people living a happy life can create greater economic value. Therefore, our government has chosen to protect people's lives and has invested 19.73 billion us dollars to fight the epidemic.

Another big problem with our city government now is there are 400,000 families who are homeless. Not only do they have to feed them daily but to find shelter to quarantine them. The Mayor said her money can last up to 3 weeks only. After that. It is a problem how to feed them. If this fails. Riots can result as they invade the homes.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

This is not good news.
https://www.ft.com/content/859e9336-68db-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

https://www.wsj.com/articles/singap...-second-wave-of-coronavirus-cases-11584445836

Possible counter-point:

Some of those nations may be seeing spikes due to travelers abroad returning home (and carrying the infection into the contained areas). See article I posted (not a subscriber, so I cannot see past the preview).

The observation in the Financial Times article that officials are seeing the re-emergence of the virus in China and South Korea after initially getting it under control (whether through local spread or re-introduction from travelers), seems to support the notion from the ICL report (discussed in my post #1322 and @nsaspook's post #1351) that countries might have to periodically re-institute social distancing until a more permanent solution (like a vaccine) can be developed.

 

[kyphysics]

So if you happen to be in Philadelphia and have been considered stealing drugs from a prostitute, now would be a good time for it.

You'd have to use some sort of force or threat of force to steal, though. Unless even THAT is non-violent, then those people would still get locked up, no?

To the larger point, it's about trying to figure out a lesser evil in all of this.

The ethics are not easy. I don't know if I'd agree with these policies (we have something similar in my city), but I feel local authorities are trying to do the best with what they have been dealt in this medical pandemic situation.

I'd personally be more selective about the criminal, though. A life-long criminal with a non-violent charge: nope, keep him in jail. A first-time offender with a non-violent charge: let's consider that person.

 

[vxiaoyu18]

Another big problem with our city government now is there are 400,000 families who are homeless. Not only do they have to feed them daily but to find shelter to quarantine them. The Mayor said her money can last up to 3 weeks only. After that. It is a problem how to feed them. If this fails. Riots can result as they invade the homes.

People in every country are close groups, they all have grandmother's DNA, people on the street, they are all your distant relatives, they are all your brothers and sisters, it's a perfect relationship. When the government is in economic difficulties and cannot take care of them, I think it is necessary to :1) call on people to unite and take care of them together and help them return to normal life. Set up volunteer websites and spread out volunteer service points so that those in need know where to get help. In our country, we do the same, when in trouble, we will also donate money and food, beg for food, not to mention, generally don't let them go hungry. 2) let them talk more about how they can get help from others and face difficulties and challenges together, instead of resorting to violence to hurt each other. 3) jobs in the city give priority to them, and at the same time, seek help or work outside the city to give them new hope. You're on the ground, better informed, you can talk to each other, get more and better attention.

 

[chirhone]

People in every country are a close group, they each have the DNA of their original grandmother in them, the people on the street, they are all your distant relatives, they are all your brothers and sisters, it is an unassailable relationship. When the government is in economic difficulties and cannot take care of them, I think it is necessary to: 1) appeal to people to unite and take care of them together and help them return to normal life. In our country, we also do this, when in trouble, we will also take the initiative to donate money and food, begging for food, not to mention, generally will not let them starve. 2) give them more publicity, how to get everyone's help, face difficulties and challenges together, rather than rely on violence to get, mutual harm. 3) look outside the city for help or jobs to give them new hope.

Right now everyone is in shortage of food and have to line up 1 hour or more just to limited stocks. I don't even have much food. I hope it doesn't end up like Italy.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

"Italy is entering its fourth week of the worst national crisis since World War II with no end in sight.
More than 60 million people are living under an increasingly unbearable lockdown that is growing tighter by the day. The stores that remain open are shuttering earlier and police are patrolling in ever-greater numbers, chasing families out for walks back into their homes and ensuring no one is outside without a valid reason.

Even so, the number of novel Coronavirus cases in the country is rising at a rate of around 3,500 new cases or more every day, and the death toll has topped 2,500."

 

[vxiaoyu18]

Even so, the number of novel Coronavirus cases in the country is rising at a rate of around 3,500 new cases or more every day, and the death toll has topped 2,500."

Italy did so for a reason, because it had chosen freedom to resist isolation and was therefore in trouble. Therefore, the data should be transparent and quarantine measures should be in place as soon as possible, regardless of the country or system. Viruses have no boundaries, no rules, do a good job of isolation measures, have the freedom to survive.

 

[chirhone]

Italy did so for a reason, because it had chosen freedom to resist isolation and was therefore in trouble. Therefore, the data should be transparent and quarantine measures should be in place as soon as possible, regardless of the country or system. Viruses have no boundaries, no rules, do a good job of isolation measures, have the freedom to survive.

As someone so familiar with logistics in china. Can you help us with our imminent 75,000 cases? https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Phi...4gSj6i2JjS0bx32C5e6akxjdYjvDAIPYb40TYN7ptKzxo

"Manila lockdown comes far too late after Duterte tried to placate China".

This is the first time lockdown happened since world war II. Most were just infants then. Will you be willing to come here when invited to work with the government. On first day. We allowed people with working ID to report for work. It resulted in chaos. So we made another rule. And another. We need experts like you to work with us.

 

[kyphysics]

Possibly lost in all of this discussion is what the heck is China going to do about LONG-TERM banning of the domestication and sale of wildlife in cramped wet markets like the one in Wuhan, where animal viruses can pass from animal-to-animal and animal-to-human easily?

After 2003's SARS, the Chinese government lifted their temporary ban and these same behaviors that led to SARS continued taking place and brought about COVID19.

Can the world community do anything (outside of mere political pressure and sanctions) to actually stop China from relaxing their ban again - similar to post-SARS years?

There is a part of me that is simply angry at the situation we all face as humans. The Chinese people are innocent. But, the Chinese government is not here. I wish we could punish the Chinese government.

What can be done to prevent another global catastrophe like this in the future?

 

[vxiaoyu18]

As someone so familiar with logistics in china. Can you help us with our imminent 75,000 cases? https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Phi...4gSj6i2JjS0bx32C5e6akxjdYjvDAIPYb40TYN7ptKzxo

Every country has its own freedom. It is up to each country to choose its own systems and methods. China does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. We are ready to enhance learning and exchanges with other countries for common progress. We are ready to provide equal and mutually beneficial cooperation so that people in all countries can live a better life. Just as we don't interfere with ant colonies or lions, I think every colony needs the experience of human and non-human growth. I think it is only when war breaks out between them that I think the UN peacekeepers - the UN peacekeepers - need to get involved. It is necessary to take appropriate precautions to deal with the worst affected areas. This is the scientific method, not the political method. In hard-hit China, we have also imposed strong quarantine measures on the wuhan area and the same harsh penalties for those who flee. The same is true abroad. Personally, I believe that the Philippines has learned to use China's anti-virus experience because it has realized that China's anti-virus experience has been practiced and achieved good results. When it comes to politics, this is baseless nonsense. Time will tell.

The article deviated somewhat from the truth. China is not asking the Philippines to do anything. If so, please provide proof, I join you in scolding our country. On the contrary, China has actively provided assistance to all countries in the world, including the Philippines.
Why stop Chinese medical supplies like masks when the us is short of basic medical supplies? Personally, I think this is something that needs to be corrected. No matter which country the mask comes from, the virus will be stopped by the mask, right?

-----
According to my current situation, the Chinese government has provided medical protection material assistance to Pakistan, Laos, Thailand, Iran, South Korea, Japan and other countries and the African union (au). Italy, France, Spain, Greece, Serbia, the European Union, Cambodia, the Philippines, Egypt, South Africa, Iraq, Ethiopia, kazakhstan, belarus, Cuba, Chile and dozens of other countries and regions are providing anti-disease material assistance and supporting the purchase of medical supplies by many friendly countries in the Chinese market.

 

[Astronuc]

Current situation in Switzerland, 18.3.2020, 3 pm:
Confirmed in Switzerland

Number of cases
Tested positive: about 3028
Confirmed: 2772

Number who have died: 21
https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/hom...-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html

Testing and cases reported
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

 

[phinds]

The virus will be blocked by the mask, no matter which country the mask is from, right?

No. Most people don't wear the masks correctly and even when they do they still touch their faces, sometimes MORE than they would if not wearing the masks so if you don't have it, the masks aren't much use. What the masks are really good at is keeping the already-infected from spreading it more.

 

[vxiaoyu18]

No. Most people don't wear the masks correctly and even when they do they still touch their faces, sometimes MORE than they would if not wearing the masks so if you don't have it, the masks aren't much use. What the masks are really good at is keeping the already-infected from spreading it more.

In my opinion, in crowded places or places where people gather with strangers, because you don't know who is infected, wearing a mask is a good way to prevent the spread of droplets, which is the most deadly form of transmission, and this is a necessary precaution. If you cough, sneeze or have a fever, you must wear a mask for yourself and for others. Of course, in sparsely populated areas or open Spaces, you don't have to wear a mask, and I don't wear a mask either at home or downstairs, where there are fewer people.

 

[mfb]

Little bit of humor:
A funny "Torn" adaption (with more background)
Meme collection

-------

@Dr. Courtney: Staying at home when you know you are sick, washing hands and so on can reduce the risk to get and spread the virus but they don't eliminate it, and you know not everyone is following this advice. The more people you have together the more likely someone is infected, and the more people are there that can get infected. It's simple mathematics. South Korea is an example where a church was responsible for the overall national outbreak.
If your faith tells you to endanger yourself and others then I hope it's not a widespread faith. A benevolent god should allow people to protect themselves I think. Or, you know, not allow pandemics at all.[/size]

"Italy is entering its fourth week of the worst national crisis since World War II with no end in sight.
More than 60 million people are living under an increasingly unbearable lockdown that is growing tighter by the day. The stores that remain open are shuttering earlier and police are patrolling in ever-greater numbers, chasing families out for walks back into their homes and ensuring no one is outside without a valid reason.

Even so, the number of novel Coronavirus cases in the country is rising at a rate of around 3,500 new cases or more every day, and the death toll has topped 2,500."

The overall cases are still growing quickly but the relative growth has been going down. At the time China had this pattern they also had 30,000 to 40,000 confirmed cases. From there on their daily increases went down. Deaths peaked two weeks later at about twice the rate.
If Italy follows the same pattern then we get ~4000 new cases per day for one more week or so, followed by a relatively rapid drop. Deaths would reach a peak of ~750/day. Overall deaths could end up at 15,000.

 

[phinds]

In my opinion, in crowded places or places where people gather with strangers, because you don't know who is infected, wearing a mask is a good way to prevent the spread of droplets,

Uh ... that's exactly what I just said. Masks are to keep people from spreading it out, not to keep them from getting it.

 

[vxiaoyu18]

Uh ... that's exactly what I just said. Masks are to keep people from spreading it out, not to keep them from getting it.

I do n’t speak English well. I talk to you using a translation software. If my understanding is wrong, do n’t laugh at me, haha.

 

[wukunlin]

Possibly lost in all of this discussion is what the heck is China going to do about LONG-TERM banning of the domestication and sale of wildlife in cramped wet markets like the one in Wuhan, where animal viruses can pass from animal-to-animal and animal-to-human easily?

After 2003's SARS, the Chinese government lifted their temporary ban and these same behaviors that led to SARS continued taking place and brought about COVID19.

Can the world community do anything (outside of mere political pressure and sanctions) to actually stop China from relaxing their ban again - similar to post-SARS years?

There is a part of me that is simply angry at the situation we all face as humans. The Chinese people are innocent. But, the Chinese government is not here. I wish we could punish the Chinese government.

What can be done to prevent another global catastrophe like this in the future?

From a demand standpoint, this "problem" should solve itself. The type of people who even want to eat them are minorities. Most Chinese under the age of 40 should find those scenes in the wet market revolting as much as you and I. The target consumer is for people who believe in traditional alternative medicine. It is a cultural thing that is dying out, especially with the help of CCP. They were not so proactive after SARS because they didn't think it will happen again in this lifetime, which was unfortunate.

Also, you are not thinking of "punishing" every country that consumes wild life are you? That is most of the world. How about all the countries who chose not to prepare when the outbreak was mainly in China, who's going to punish them?

 

[vxiaoyu18]

We all know that the virus may come from bats, but the source of virus no. 0 has not been found, so from a scientific point of view, we are not sure where the virus came from, there is not enough evidence to prove that the virus originated in the farmers' market in wuhan. Every country's civilization needs a process, and every country's understanding of the world also needs to accumulate experience, just like we can't ban the killing of wild animals in Africa or other areas now, so it needs to be a process of mutual learning and progress. After this outbreak, China will surely seize the time to formulate corresponding laws on wildlife protection, prohibit the slaughter of wild animals, from the root cause of prevention. Very few people in our country kill wild animals for food. I've never eaten any wild animals in my life. Our main meat is chicken, duck, goose and pork.

 

[PeterDonis]

Moderator's note: Everyone please refrain from discussion of unacceptable topics.

 

[chirhone]

https://www.sciencealert.com/paper-...ight-be-slightly-more-susceptible-to-covid-19

Is this true? Time is of the essence. Every day thousands dying so we need to tackle it, the science of it directly.

 

[Astronuc]

The US has one week to enforce social distancing and 'flatten the curve' as the Coronavirus outbreak escalates. Here's why these days are so critical.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...l-distancing-flatten-curve-coronavirus-2020-3

The article has a comparison of the trends in Italy and US back to a common 149 cases. This evening the US has at least 8865 confirmed cases and 145 deaths.

US Timeline - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html
Jan. 14 — 0
Jan. 21 — 1
Jan. 28 — 5
Feb. 4 — 11
Feb. 11 — 14
Feb. 18 — 25
Feb. 25 — 59
Mar. 3 — 125
Mar. 10 — 1,004
Tonight ~ 8865

 

[Rive]

Is this true?

At this point not only the hospitals of the affected areas are struggling to keep up but the whole 'peer review' system too. Nobody will be able to answer that question for certain.

 

[atyy]

Right now everyone is in shortage of food and have to line up 1 hour or more just to limited stocks. I don't even have much food. I hope it doesn't end up like Italy.

From what I've read there doesn't seem to be a shortage of food in Italy.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/18/21180483/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-quarantine-lombardy

 

[chemisttree]

Lombardy is the wealthiest part of Italy.