COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[chemisttree]

These suppression strategies should be able to stop the spread of the virus so that there are new cases, and reduce the level of cases so that we can go back to a situation where contact tracing is a viable strategy (see the analysis from Tomas Pueyo for more discussion).

I’d like to believe too. But I don’t. Knowing what we know now and as freaked out as everyone is, they still aren’t stopping traffic. And traffic is transmission.
NYC should be on complete lockdown right now but look;

https://webcams.nyctmc.org/google_popup.php?cid=895

NYC should be on complete lockdown RIGHT NOW, Wuhan-style. Less traffic, sure but still not right.

Instead we have a Governor demanding the delivery of 30,000 ventilators and millions of articles of PPE from the federal government. Reminds me of Hitler ordering “phantom armies” to defend Berlin in the dying days of the Reich. My own Lieutenant Governor is offering to sacrifice the older generation so we can save the economy for our grandkids.

I don’t see anybody really doing suppression yet and our leaders appear to be posturing during an election year.

I’m afraid we’re on our own.

 

[WWGD]

I guess re buying provisions, the issue of when you will start digging into your stash. You don't know how long the whole thing will last, so, when do you start eating what you have? Other wisecI guess many will just continue stashing indefinitely. Seems like a topic for a thesis in Operations Research.

 

[PeterDonis]

NYC should be on complete lockdown right now but look

How does a camera looking at a highway, where people are in their cars and not able to infect anyone else, have any relevance to whether or not NYC is in lockdown? Try looking at a webcam of Times Square or some other place where large crowds usually gather.

 

[PeterDonis]

when do you start eating what you have?

When you have to to avoid it going bad. Note that having a "stash" and managing it should not just be something you do during a crisis like this; it should be an ongoing part of general preparedness. Every so often you consume the oldest stuff in your stash and replenish it with new stuff so the average age of your stash stays about the same.

 

[WWGD]

When you have to to avoid it going bad. Note that having a "stash" and managing it should not just be something you do during a crisis like this; it should be an ongoing part of general preparedness. Every so often you consume the oldest stuff in your stash and replenish it with new stuff so the average age of your stash stays about the same.

True, but most of it is non-perishable. Otherwise FIFO makes sense.

 

[PeterDonis]

most of it is non-perishable

If you don't care how long it's been on the shelf, then I would say you don't need to consume it until...you need to consume it. ("Need" as in "there's nothing else to eat".)

I generally do care to some extent how long things have been on the shelf even if they are supposed to be non-perishable. Nothing actually lasts indefinitely (except perhaps Twinkies, which are designed to already be stale when they come from the factory ).

 

[WWGD]

If you don't care how long it's been on the shelf, then I would say you don't need to consume it until...you need to consume it. ("Need" as in "there's nothing else to eat".)

I generally do care to some extent how long things have been on the shelf even if they are supposed to be non-perishable. Nothing actually lasts indefinitely (except perhaps Twinkies, which are designed to already be stale when they come from the factory ).

Twinkies and roaches will fight it out after WW3. I'm betting on the Twinkies ;).

 

[kolleamm]

Doesn't processed honey last for a very long time?

https://zidbits.com/2013/07/does-honey-really-last-forever/

 

[bhobba]

Do you mean pneumonia can be caused by a virus? And in Covid-19 case, it is.

There are two types a pneumonia - viral and bacterial. You may think because bacteria can be fought with antibiotics the viral type is worse, but interestingly recent research shows its a bit more complicated:
https://www.livescience.com/64061-bacterial-pneumonia-heart-health.html

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

New Rochelle was a major Coronavirus cluster two weeks ago. Here's where it stands now.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/new-rochelle-coronavirus/index.html

When New Rochelle, New York, found it had a cluster of people with coronavirus, the state took several drastic measures to stem its spread.
. . .
Those moves hardly seem drastic now. For New Rochelle, a suburb of New York City, the measures have been effective.

Indeed, the containment has been effective in reducing the spread of the virus.

The number of new Coronavirus cases has slowed since the restrictions were put in place about two weeks ago, Mayor Noam Bramson said.

"The data are sufficient to demonstrate that New Rochelle is declining as a percentage of confirmed cases in Westchester (County), which indicates that our early quarantine and social distancing measures have been effective," he [Bramson] said.

Stay-at-home mandates: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-which-states-stay-at-home-order-trnd/index.html

California - March 19, first state.
Colorado - March 26 and going through April 11.
Connecticut - March 23 at 8 p.m
Delaware - March 24 through May 15 or until the "public health threat is eliminated."
Hawaii - March 25 through at least April 30
Idaho - March 25 for 21 days (3 weeks)
Illinois - March 21 through April 7
Indiana - March 24 through April 6
Louisiana - March 23 through April 12
Massachusetts - March 24 until April 7
Michigan - March 24 lasting for at least the next three weeks (21 days)
Minnesota - March 27 through April 10.
New Jersey - March 21, end ??
New Mexico - March 24, end ??
New York - March 22, end ??
Ohio - March 23 through April 6
Oregon - March 23, end ??
Vermont - March 25 until April 15
Washington - March 23 for two weeks (14 days), and maybe longer
West Virginia - March 24, end ??
Wisconsin - March 25 through April 24 or until a superseding order is issued

States not implementing stay-at-home may see their COVID-19 cases rise rapidly, because people will carry the virus across state borders. The virus does not recognize borders.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Coronavirus lockdowns: These states are ordering residents to stay home or shelter in place

Grace Hauck Lorenzo Reyes

USA TODAY

March 25, 2020

[. . .]

Don't panic, the orders are not lockdowns. They allow residents to continue performing tasks essential to the health and safety of family and pets. It's still fine to buy groceries, go for a run, walk the dog, pick up medicine, visit a doctor or get supplies to work from home.

[. . .]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...helter-place-stay-home-state-list/2891193001/

 

[Astronuc]

Washington state has reported their latest numbers March 25, 2020 at 6:20 p.m. (PDT).
Positive cases 2580 including 132 deaths.
Negative cases 31,712

It does appear that actions in Washington have slowed the spread of the virus.

The state health department reports: "The state's notifiable conditions database is currently experiencing a slowdown because of a 10-fold increase in the number of lab reports received."

Each state must collect reports/data from each county.

Earlier today, the numbers for NY were 30811 positive cases including 285 deaths.
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/
This evening, estimates are 32966 including 366 deaths (based on Coronvavirus dashboard), US has 68,141 positive cases including 1032 deaths. I consider that data unverified. NY state (and the 49 other states and various territories) will report again tomorrow afternoon.

Another thing to keep in mind: if one tests negative, it doesn't mean that one may not become infected, and there is a slight chance of a false-negative test. I've seen on commentary by a doctor who has tested positive after treating a patient with a false-negative test.

 

[mfb]

Italy's trend continued for another day. They seem to be on a really good track now.
This is a general trend, there is no region where new case counts would go up rapidly.

Surprisingly, new deaths stabilized at the same time. This could suggest that the new confirmations are going through the backlog already: True new infections went down, they catch up with testing now.

...

So far my March 18 extrapolation is quite good.

 

[peanut]

I'm searching for a study (if any) specific to sign like Koplik's spot in measles that can make Covid-19 easily identifiable. One UK research says lost of taste and smell may be one.

 

[Rive]

I'm searching for a study (if any) specific to sign like Koplik's spot in measles that can make Covid-19 easily identifiable.

There is no such sign. Starting symptoms (if there is any) are more or less the same group as for common flu or various colds. There is no chance to identify it without testing, do not even try or believe anything from any source what claims it is possible.

Ps.: right now, it is 'anosmia' what is the actual holy grail (random link). But, you know, flu also does that occasionally...

 

[peanut]

Very interesting to listen to so many experiences all around the world and divine how some have fairly low mortality rates while others have tragic runaway death rates which continue in an upward trajectory...

The SUCCESS variables seem to cluster around the following:

1. Very early and very wide testing with as many people over as many geographies;
2. Excellent health care system where there is more than adequate inventory of critical medical equipment like ventilators;
3. Strict implementation of lockdown directives and appropriate sanctions thereof without any exceptions;

Obviously, the opposite of all the above spells FAILURE or increased infections and death.

 

[mfb]

A visualization of US causes of death
COVID-19 overtook "influenza and pneumonia" on Tuesday, with the current trend it will overtake accidents during the weekend. These numbers are averages, of course. Stay at home orders should reduce the number of accidents at the moment.

 

[BillTre]

Nice NY Times interactive graphic of corona virus spread from Wuhan to the world here.

 

[DennisN]

Twinkies and roaches will fight it out after WW3. I'm betting on the Twinkies ;).

I simulated a nuclear war in Excel and this was what I got :

 

[anorlunda]

I simulated a nuclear war in Excel and this was what I got :

Run it again including Tardigrades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tardigrade

 

[bhobba]

Fingers crossed, here in Aus things look like its coming under control, as the rate of increase looks like its slowing. Still a lot of immunologists think we should test even more even though we are testing more than anyone - death rate now .4% instead of .33% because unfortunately we have had a few more deaths. Better testing kits using a drop of blood (antibody test) are becoming available that takes much less time - 15 minutes:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-states-push-for-expansion-of-virus-testing/news-story/2a4e9d13ad60710b1b88f022255343ce

Some idiots are still ignoring the social distancing etc, even lying about where they will be while quarantined, but there is a start of police cracking down on it, though no arrests yet. I think overall Australia is not doing too bad - but could and should be better.

Thanks
Bill

 

[peanut]

So some people want schools to reopen because kids are "minimally affected" by coronavirus.

In Singapore model, children remain in school because they might just loiter around but the school system here might be very different than yours and most teachers here are competent to ensure cleanliness, safety and nutrition. They seem to control the transmission but still on high alert.

In the Taiwan model, the outbreak measures started during early January so there was Winter break in schools but even if the outbreak seemed to have been contained, they even delayed the start of new semester this year by two weeks and if anyone comes out positive again, the whole class is quarantined for two weeks, that school is closed and immediately isolated.

In Vietnam, the country seemed to have controlled it much better than Singapore and very much the same with Taiwan and take note until now, schools remain closed. People are back at work with social distancing measures. This is the more appropriate model in most settings.

Over-all, from these experiences, and as shown by Taiwan and Vietnam, the prudent thing to do is to keep all schools closed for at least 3 months.

 

[BillTre]

Here is a FiveThrityEight survey of experts estimates of what the pandemic will be looking like in the future.
Large differences in estimates and large uncertainties.

Several other graphs.

 

[anorlunda]

Here is a FiveThrityEight survey of experts estimates of what the pandemic will be looking like in the future.

In the future? The article you link says the question was "What is the smallest, most likely and largest number of total cases that The COVID Tracking Project will report on March 29?"

Some estimates look 2 days into the future, some 2 months, some look years into the future, some US only, some global. Not surprisingly, the numbers are different. It is not very helpful to give estimates without giving the parameters of the estimate.

I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Refer back to #821 in this thread.

Here's another estimate from another group:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...177e0a-63b4-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

Another forecast, developed by former CDC director Tom Frieden at the nonprofit organization Resolve to Save Lives, found that deaths in the United States could range widely, depending on what percentage of the population becomes infected and how lethal the disease proves to be. Frieden, who oversaw the U.S. response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the 2014 Ebola epidemic and the 2016 Zika epidemic, says that in a worst-case scenario, but one that is not implausible, half the U.S. population would become infected and more than 1 million people would die.

His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said.
Another forecast, developed by former CDC director Tom Frieden at the nonprofit organization Resolve to Save Lives, found that deaths in the United States could range widely, depending on what percentage of the population becomes infected and how lethal the disease proves to be. Frieden, who oversaw the U.S. response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the 2014 Ebola epidemic and the 2016 Zika epidemic, says that in a worst-case scenario, but one that is not implausible, half the U.S. population would become infected and more than 1 million people would die.

His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said.

 

[OmCheeto]

In the future? The article you link says the question was "What is the smallest, most likely and largest number of total cases that The COVID Tracking Project will report on March 29?"

Some estimates look 2 days into the future, some 2 months, some look years into the future, some US only, some global. Not surprisingly, the numbers are different. It is not very helpful to give estimates without giving the parameters of the estimate.

I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Refer back to #821 in this thread.

That article is VERY difficult interpret if one just skims through it.
It's only redeeming value was that one number in one of the survey questions matched mine quite well:

How many total COVID-19 infections were actually in the U.S. on March 23?
The expert consensus is that the real number of cases was ... 362,000 being the most likely number.

{bolding mine}

 

[Keith_McClary]

a Michigan doctor, Jeffrey VanWingen, goes through, step-by-step, how to process your groceries when you get them home to give you your best chance of not bringing COVID-19 into your house.

Via boingboing .

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The US is now #1
https://www.bing.com/covid

 

[PeterDonis]

The US is now #1

New York all by itself would rate #6.

 

[OmCheeto]

The US is now #1
https://www.bing.com/covid

Oh dear.
You've triggered a flashback to my youth:


circa 1984

 

[Astronuc]

The US is now #1
https://www.bing.com/covid

The numbers (2617 positive, 58 deaths) for California are two days old. CDPH reports " As of March 25, 2020, 2 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time, there are a total of 3,006 positive cases and 65 deaths in California (including one non-California resident)." Today's numbers will be greater (Coronavirus Dashboard has 3910 cases, 80 deaths). Washington state will reported (see below), and those numbers should be greater. It would appear that some states which had reported low numbers and now seeing an acceleration in positive cases through more people becoming ill and more testing.

Washington State reported March 26, 2020 at 3:45 p.m.
Rate of cases was slowing, but today they got a bump today to 3207 with 627 new cases. Deaths increased to 147.