COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Vanadium 50]

What is your thought about steam inhalation?

No evidence that it helps and plenty that there are side effects. You shouldn't advocate it.

 

[russ_watters]

I wonder which state will be the first to cave and how.

It's Texas. Texas is now reversing course and closing businesses down again:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order today that limits certain businesses and services as part of the state’s effort to "contain the spread of Covid-19."

Texas is among at least 11 states seeing a 50% increase or more in cases compared to the previous week.

Here is what the order includes:

• All bars that get more than 51% of their gross receipts from the sale of alcoholic beverages are required to close at 12:00 p.m. today.
• These businesses may remain open for delivery and take-out, including for alcoholic beverages, as authorized by the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission.
• Restaurants can remain open for dine-in service, but their capacities can not exceed 50% of total listed indoor occupancy, beginning on Monday.
• Rafting and tubing businesses must close.
• Outdoor gatherings of 100 or more people must be approved by local governments, with certain exceptions.

“As I said from the start, if the positivity rate rose above 10%, the State of Texas would take further action to mitigate the spread of Covid-19,” Abbott said in a statement. “At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars. The actions in this executive order are essential to our mission to swiftly contain this virus and protect public health."

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...26-20-intl/h_a7c96d40058684912bc493dec54ddd50

 

[gleem]

Florida just reported 8942 cases a 79% increase over their last two worst days four weeks from the day they reopened bars and restaurants.

 

[nsaspook]

CDC update:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/25...-on-americans-facing-risk-of-severe-covid-19/

The new advice, timed to influence behavior going into the July 4 weekend, came as CDC Director Robert Redfield acknowledged serology testing the agency has conducted suggests about 20 million Americans, or roughly 6% of the population, has contracted Covid-19. Redfield said for every person who tests positive, another 10 cases have likely gone undiagnosed.

While the 20 million estimate is far higher than the figure on the CDC’s Covid-19 website, it still represents a fraction of the country’s population, Redfield said.

“I’m asking people to recognize that we’re in a different situation today than we were in March, in April, where the virus was being disproportionately recognized in older individuals with significant comorbidities and was causing significant hospitalizations and deaths,” he said.

“Today we’re seeing more virus. It’s in younger individuals. Fewer of those individuals are requiring the hospitalizations and having a fatal outcome. But that is not to minimize it.”

 

[Ygggdrasil]

It's Texas. Texas is now reversing course and closing businesses down again:

It was pretty apparent that the state was on this course a week ago when the governor was insisting that there was no reason to be alarmed.

 

[nsaspook]

Interesting study.
https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-are...transmission-among-children-students-teachers

In late April 2020, scientists at the Institut Pasteur, with the support of the Hauts-de-France Regional Health Agency and the Amiens Education Authority, carried out an epidemiological survey on 1,340 people linked to primary schools in Crépy-en-Valois, in the Oise department. Thanks to the cooperation of the people of Crépy-en-Valois, the survey, which made use of serological tests developed by the Institut Pasteur, revealed that the proportion of primary school students infected by the novel Coronavirus was 8.8%. Based on some cases of infection detected in the students before the schools closed, it appears that the children did not spread the infection to other students or to teachers or other staff at the schools. The results were published online on pasteur.fr on June 23, 2020.

 

[nsaspook]

Second wave down under?
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...ets-second-wave-of-toilet-paper-hoarding.html

Australia's supermarket chains on Friday reintroduced purchase limits on toilet paper and other household items as a spike in Coronavirus cases in the state of Victoria set off a fresh round of panic-buying over fears of a new stay-at-home order.

Woolworths Group Ltd and Coles Group Ltd, which together account for two-thirds of Australian grocery sales, said they were once again limiting purchases of toilet paper and paper towels to one or two packs per person after photos circulated on social media showing empty shelves in stores.

 

[mfb]

There is no studies yet that find it as bad or ineffective against covid19.

There are also no studies that find wearing blue/red striped socks bad or ineffective against covid-19. Because why would someone do such a study?
Please limit this thread to serious topics.

 

[Vanadium 50]

There is no studies yet that find it as bad or ineffective against covid19.

That's simply false. https://factcheck.afp.com/inhaling-steam-will-not-treat-or-cure-novel-coronavirus-infection
If you want to see the downside, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...0)31144-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

Furthermore, in this age of the internet when things can be looked up in seconds, there is simply no excuse for this. As I said earlier, you shouldn't advocate this.

There are also no studies that find wearing blue/red striped socks bad or ineffective against covid-19. Because why would someone do such a study?

A parade of misinformation, that's for sure. I find myself thinking of this as "Kadiocy".

 

[Vanadium 50]

Second wave down under?

As I said before, price-gouging is the solution to hoarding.

 

[bob012345]

Live Attenuated Vaccines Could Protect against Most Severe COVID-19 Symptoms

In direct support of the team’s concept, it was recently reported that the milder symptoms seen in the 955 sailors on the U.S.S. Roosevelt who tested positive for COVID-19 (only one hospitalization) may have been a consequence of the fact that MMR vaccinations are given to all U.S. Navy recruits

http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/live-attenuated-vaccines-covid-19-08559.html

 

[WWGD]

Two worldwide milestones reached today/tomorrow: 500,000 deaths and 10 million cases. Number of cases has been increasing, number of ( daily) deaths roughly steady at some 5,000. But then of course , neither of the rates is uniform worlwide.

 

[Astronuc]

Arizona (popul. 7.279 million (2019)) reports 70051 cases, 1579 deaths due to COVID-19 6/27/2020. Arizona ranks 10th in terms of cases
Maricopa county (popul. 4.485 million (2019)) accounts for 42374 cases, 741 deaths as of June 27
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
Phoenix (popul. 1680992 (2019)) is the county seat of Maricopa county.

Tennessee (popul. 6.829 million (2019)) reports 41072 cases, 584 deaths, and ranking 19th in terms of cases.
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

 

[mfb]

Arizona (popul. 7.279 million (2019)) reports 70051 cases, 1579 deaths due to COVID-19 6/27/2020. Arizona ranks 10th in terms of cases

~3000 cases per day and no sign of slowing down. Italy at its peak end of March had 6000 cases per day, scaled to the population this would be 700 cases for Arizona. Tests became better, testing ramped up everywhere and people learned better who to test, so presumably Arizona can find a larger fraction of infected people now. Let's look at deaths:
Italy's deaths peaked at ~1000 per day a week after the highest case count, scaled to Arizona's population that would be ~120. Arizona had 240 deaths in the last 5 days, or ~50/day. Here we can expect the opposite effect: Improved treatment should make deaths go down over time even at the same level of an outbreak. As the number of recorded new cases didn't reach its peak yet we can expect Arizona's deaths per day to go up more.

 

[PeroK]

Two worldwide milestones reached today/tomorrow: 500,000 deaths and 10 million cases. Number of cases has been increasing, number of ( daily) deaths roughly steady at some 5,000. But then of course , neither of the rates is uniform worlwide.

The CFR worldwide is enormously variable. In Western Europe it's very high, quite high in North and South America, and almost zero in the Middle East. Here are the figures for the 20 countries with the most cases, sorted by CFR. I've included the number of tests (in millions).

There is very little if any analysis of this to be found online, but these figures don't make a lot of sense.

	Tests	Cases	Deaths	CFR
France	1.4​	163,000​	29,800​	18.3%​
Italy	5.3​	240,000​	34,700​	14.5%​
UK	9.1​	310,000​	43,500​	14.0%​
Mexico	0.6​	213,000​	26,400​	12.4%​
Spain	5.2​	295,000​	28,300​	9.6%​
Canada	2.6​	103,000​	8,500​	8.3%​
USA	32.0​	2,600,000​	128,000​	4.9%​
Iran	1.6​	220,000​	10,400​	4.7%​
Germany	5.4​	195,000​	9,000​	4.6%​
Brazil	2.9​	1,300,000​	57,100​	4.4%​
Peru	1.6​	276,000​	9,100​	3.3%​
India	8.2​	539,000​	16,100​	3.0%​
Turkey	3.2​	196,000​	5,100​	2.6%​
Pakistan	1.2​	203,000​	4,100​	2.0%​
Chile	1.1​	268,000​	5,300​	2.0%​
S Africa	1.5​	132,000​	2,400​	1.8%​
Russia	18.7​	630,000​	9,000​	1.4%​
Bangladesh	0.7​	134,000​	1,700​	1.3%​
S Arabia	1.5​	179,000​	1,500​	0.8%​
Qatar	0.3​	94,000​	110​	0.1%​

 

[rsk]

I am in Romania. Here the govt acted quickly - closed schools with no deaths and less than 40 confirmed cases in the country,. Full lockdown followed soon after.
The state of emergency has been relaxed in stages over the past month and the curve is upwards again. RO is now the 6th in the european list of nº of new cases per day.

Lockdown works, the spike so many countries are seeing after relaxing rules demonstrates that.

 

[kadiot]

There are also no studies that find wearing blue/red striped socks bad or ineffective against covid-19. Because why would someone do such a study?
Please limit this thread to serious topics.

It's a serious question. There is a case in Cebu City in the Philippines wherein the person got Covid-19. He did steam inhalation for ten days. As a result, it actually led to damage his lungs. And with a compromised almost-steamed lungs, he died. Sadly, some Filipino doctors are advocating for it.

 

[mfb]

There is very little if any analysis of this to be found online, but these figures don't make a lot of sense.

Here as a graph. At least some of that will come from wildly varying rules for testing, but naively you would expect a higher fraction of positive tests (indicating that fewer mild cases are tested) to come with a higher fraction of deaths among the tested people. I don't see such a relation.

It's a serious question.

Well, without studies demonstrating any use: Forget it. "X advocates for it" doesn't mean much.

 

[mfb]

Risk of never fully recovering after Coronavirus ‘very real,’ scientists say

This can have long-lasting effects even with a vaccine stopping new infections.

 

[bob012345]

Risk of never fully recovering after Coronavirus ‘very real,’ scientists say

This can have long-lasting effects even with a vaccine stopping new infections.

If that becomes a significant issue then resources will be devoted to better treat and rehabilitate those patients. Many people live with chronic diseases now and effective treatments do get better with research.

 

[Jarvis323]

That's simply false. https://factcheck.afp.com/inhaling-steam-will-not-treat-or-cure-novel-coronavirus-infection
If you want to see the downside, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...0)31144-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

Furthermore, in this age of the internet when things can be looked up in seconds, there is simply no excuse for this. As I said earlier, you shouldn't advocate this.
A parade of misinformation, that's for sure. I find myself thinking of this as "Kadiocy".

Where's the study though?

 

[kyphysics]

Live Attenuated Vaccines Could Protect against Most Severe COVID-19 Symptoms

In direct support of the team’s concept, it was recently reported that the milder symptoms seen in the 955 sailors on the U.S.S. Roosevelt who tested positive for COVID-19 (only one hospitalization) may have been a consequence of the fact that MMR vaccinations are given to all U.S. Navy recruits

http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/live-attenuated-vaccines-covid-19-08559.html

Sailors are typically young and fit too, no? That could be an important part of it.

 

[kyphysics]

Frustrated Question of the Day
Why the hell do some people blatantly/intentionally ignore social distancing and mask wearing.

I get the people who accidentally get too close or have a mask on wrong, etc. But, I don't get the people who defiantly say they're just not going to wear a mask, nor social distance. What is the psychology of such people?

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Update for June 28, 2020

California now has 211,243 confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 5,905 deaths. The number of COVID-related deaths increased by 0.6 percent from Friday’s total of 5,872. The number of COVID-19 diagnostic test results in California reached a total of 3,955,952 an increase of 93,642 tests since Friday. The rate of positive tests over the last 14 days is 5.4 percent. California’s hospitalizations due to COVID-19 increased by 83 from Friday.

Updated June 28, 2020 at 11:00 a.m. with data from June 27.

[ . . . ]

###

https://update.covid19.ca.gov/

I live in California~ I'm still healthy and so is my husband, dog, and cat.

 

[chemisttree]

Received on Saturday evening. Daily case count had jumped up to nearly 1,000 on Saturday... the day after the Health Director in charge of San Antonio’s handling of COVID-19 QUIT!
She looked totally frazzed the day before at the news conference.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Update for June 28, 2020

California now has 211,243 confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 5,905 deaths. The number of COVID-related deaths increased by 0.6 percent from Friday’s total of 5,872. The number of COVID-19 diagnostic test results in California reached a total of 3,955,952 an increase of 93,642 tests since Friday. The rate of positive tests over the last 14 days is 5.4 percent. California’s hospitalizations due to COVID-19 increased by 83 from Friday.

Updated June 28, 2020 at 11:00 a.m. with data from June 27.

[ . . . ]

###

https://update.covid19.ca.gov/

I live in California~ I'm still healthy and so is my husband, dog, and cat.

 

[Rive]

Seems like a good summary with a pretty list of references.
Nothing really new, though.

 

[bob012345]

Frustrated Question of the Day
Why the hell do some people blatantly/intentionally ignore social distancing and mask wearing.

I get the people who accidentally get too close or have a mask on wrong, etc. But, I don't get the people who defiantly say they're just not going to wear a mask, nor social distance. What is the psychology of such people?

Young and feeling immortal. They think it's all stupid and it can't happen to them. Until it does.

 

[OmCheeto]

The CFR worldwide is enormously variable. In Western Europe it's very high, quite high in North and South America, and almost zero in the Middle East. Here are the figures for the 20 countries with the most cases, sorted by CFR. I've included the number of tests (in millions).

There is very little if any analysis of this to be found online, but these figures don't make a lot of sense.
...

Trying to make sense of them might be why I haven't posted for nearly a month.

A couple of weeks ago, I asked our state health authority; "Oregon Health Authority, there are two different types of tests: viral and antibody. Are your reported case numbers one, the other, or both? Thanks!"

They responded; "Hi Om, that's a great question. At this time, we rely on PCR test results for confirming cases of COVID-19 in Oregon. Although we're receiving data on some antibody tests performed in Oregon, there currently isn't enough evidence to suggest that antibody tests are a reliable indicator that some has or had COVID-19 (or that they have immunity). As evidence continues to emerge, we may begin to track these test results more closely and to use the data they provide."

From my feeble understanding of the difference, PCR tests are only good for testing people who at that time were contagious/infected, which is from my understanding, roughly a two week window.

And from my analysis, the US has been very slow to capture people in that window.

Which, if you add up all the numbers, gives us the ≈ 5.0% current CFR.

 

[bob012345]

With a raging global pandemic, a nasty election season and an angry cultural revolution going on, here's something else to worry about;

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/world/asia/h1n1-swine-flu-virus-china-pig.html

 

[Astronuc]

My wife informed that an long-time friend died from what appears to be complications associated with COVID-19. The friend was in her late 60's and did have a co-morbidity, Alzheimer's. She went to hospital for COVID-19, and apparently, she recovered, but she lost the ability to swallow, i.e., couldn't take food or water. She returned to the long-term care facility where they put her into hospice. I don't know anymore details, and it is not clear if COVID-19 is a factor, but the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus can damage the nervous system, circulatory system, and various organs beyond the pulmonary and cardiovascular systems, even in healthy young folks who have no apparent comorbidity.

On the larger stage,

Arizona’s average positive-test rate has nearly tripled from 8.84 percent on June 1 to 24.43 percent on June 29. Florida’s has quadrupled from 3.85 percent to 15.62 percent. Texas’s has shot up from 5.42 percent to 14.11 percent.

In California, the average positive-test rate was 5.01 percent on June 1. Today it’s 5.95 percent.

https://news.yahoo.com/racial-and-e...urge-in-states-like-california-165346057.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/01/885263658/green-yellow-orange-or-red-this-new-tool-shows-covid-19-risk-in-your-county

 

[mfb]

Arizona’s average positive-test rate has nearly tripled from 8.84 percent on June 1 to 24.43 percent on June 29. Florida’s has quadrupled from 3.85 percent to 15.62 percent. Texas’s has shot up from 5.42 percent to 14.11 percent.

In California, the average positive-test rate was 5.01 percent on June 1. Today it’s 5.95 percent.

So much for the myth that the increased case count would come from more testing.
These states experience their big infection wave now, and closing things down again seems to be politically difficult.

 

[Vanadium 50]

One factor in people's perception of risk is how many examples one can think of. (An amusing result is that people think there are more tornadoes in Kansas than Oklahoma, because everyone can think of one in Kansas. The fact that it's fictional doesn't matter)

How many people do we know? (As opposed to have met) This is a hard number to pin down, but most studies give numbers between 300 and 600. I'm going to say 1000, largely because it makes it easy to do math in my head. That means:

Pretty much all of us know someone who knows someone who has died of Covid.

The experience of knowing someone who has died of Covid varies tremendously. If you live in NY, NJ, MA, CT or RI, you probably do (around 80%). If you live in AK, MT, ID, or WV, you probably don't (around 4%).

 

[bob012345]

Pretty much all of us know someone who knows someone who has died of Covid.

That's bad enough but next step in that sad sequence is unfathomable and the step after that, well...

 

[bobob]

Youyang Gu is open sourcing his simulator. He states that if you have python set up, you can run your own simulations in about 5 minutes.

https://twitter.com/youyanggu?lang=en

 

[Astronuc]

I was reading some news articles last night, and several are now reporting on folks who 'recover' from COVID-19, or at least the pulmonary aspects, but have lingering effects, and in other cases, folks reach a state from which they do not recover, i.e., some patients are not getting better.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...-aren-t-getting-better-major-medical-n1231281
https://www.wsj.com/articles/three-...e-still-ravaged-by-covids-fallout-11593612004
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/04/28/coronavirus-recovery-challenges

My wife also informed that the grandson of an acquaintance has lost two friends (in their 20s) from COVID-19. So just because one is young, 20-49, one should not consider oneself invincible/invulnerable to COVID-19. We don't who is vulnerable a priori.

Penn State University student died of respiratory failure, a complication of Covid-19.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annaes...-dies-of-covid-19-complications/#469dd5a24e4d

 

[bobob]

My wife also informed that the grandson of an acquaintance has lost two friends (in their 20s) from COVID-19. So just because one is young, 20-49, one should not consider oneself invincible/invulnerable to COVID-19. We don't who is vulnerable a priori.

Yup, the youngest person now to die from the virus was 11.

 

[gleem]

That was in Florida. One of the youngest if not the youngest was a six week old infant in Connecticut that was reported in April.

 

[Astronuc]

Yup, the youngest person now to die from the virus was 11.

New York state has one person age 0-9 who died from COVID-19, 4 in the age group 10-19, 53 in the age group 20-29 and 216 fatalities in age group 30-39.

I just heard Willam Haseltine (President and Chair, ACCESS Health International, former professor, Harvard Medical School) say that the virus outer surface has changed so that it is 10x more infectious than it was in January/February. A lot of folks are experiencing permanent lung damage, even if they recover.

 

[gleem]

The administration dissolved the National Security Councils pandemic response office in 2018. As this pandemic increases, they plan to open a similar office.

 

[morrobay]

[

My wife also informed that the grandson of an acquaintance has lost two friends (in their 20s) from COVID-19. So just because one is young, 20-49, one should not consider oneself invincible/invulnerable to COVID-19. We don't who is vulnerable a priori.

Why are some vulnerable to infection/ degree of Covid19 symptoms. Most likely in the initial infection and virus loading between the virus protein receptor binding subunit to the host ACE2. Any genetic variation in ACE2 structure could effect the virus protein host ACE2 adhesion prier to virus entry into host cells. The mechanism for the virus binding hotspots are protein salt bridges ( carboxylate RCOO- on one amino acid and Ammonium RN(H)3 + on the other amino acid by ionic or hydrogen bonding.

 

[mfb]

I just heard Willam Haseltine (President and Chair, ACCESS Health International, former professor, Harvard Medical School) say that the virus outer surface has changed so that it is 10x more infectious than it was in January/February. A lot of folks are experiencing permanent lung damage, even if they recover.

They found a mutation that seems to outperform other strains, both in terms of infected people and in the lab.

Preprint: https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-ev...611-choe-farzan-sars-cov-2-spike-protein.html
News: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/the...me-more-infectious-dr-anthony-fauci-says.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

My wife also informed that the grandson of an acquaintance has lost two friends (in their 20s) from COVID-19. So just because one is young, 20-49, one should not consider oneself invincible/invulnerable to COVID-19. We don't who is vulnerable a priori.

While that is true, it also shouldn't be used to conclude risks are independent of age. ("We're all in this together, taken to extremes") The mortality rate for 20-29 is two orders of magnitude smaller than for 80+.

It especially shouldn't be taken as a reason not to focus on those most at risk. Massachusetts has the 4th highest mortality rate per 100,000. If they were able to keep their nursing homes uninfected they would be #13, just above Indiana.

 

[Vanadium 50]

he virus outer surface has changed so that it is 10x more infectious than it was in January/February

I'm not sure how to interpret this. If it means the new strain has R0 above 10 (and probably above 15 or 20) it makes this the most infectious disease ever (well above measles) and the public health aspects are clear. End the lockdown now because we're all going to get infected, sooner rather than later.

If he means that R0 was 0.15 or so in February, why did it spread so rapidly?

 

[chemisttree]

I'm not sure how to interpret this. If it means the new strain has R0 above 10 (and probably above 15 or 20) it makes this the most infectious disease ever (well above measles) and the public health aspects are clear. End the lockdown now because we're all going to get infected, sooner rather than later.

If he means that R0 was 0.15 or so in February, why did it spread so rapidly?

While I agree with your point that we will all get this eventually, I don’t believe that ending the “lockdown,” such as it is, is a good idea. At this point the lockdown is more about titrating limited healthcare resources than ending the pandemic. Personally, I want to put off the day that I’m infected as long as possible and hope for a vaccine or the best treatment possible.

Wearing a mask everywhere and avoiding crowds isn’t really much of a lockdown after work. And reopening businesses at some level must occur pretty soon, IMO. Had enough of shopping at half-stocked grocers. It’s stressful sensing the precarious nature of our food supply every time I go out.

I’m getting tired of working from home! I started a new job in late April. Really weird, right? I reported to work my first day... at my dining room table! I’ve been there ever since. I’ve had colleagues leave for other opportunities that I’ve never met in person. I sing happy birthday to people I’ve never met. Is this real or the matrix?

These times are so scary-weird!

 

[Vanadium 50]

While I agree with your point that we will all get this eventually, I don’t believe that ending the “lockdown,” such as it is, is a good idea. At this point the lockdown is more about titrating limited healthcare resources than ending the pandemic.

My point isn't that we should end the lockdown immediately no matter what. My point is that if R0 has in fact jumped up from around 2 to around 20 (which would make Covid the most contagious widepread disease in history) lockdown policies intended to bring R0 down from 2-ish to under 1 will be ineffective. Indeed, if R0 is really 20, it's too late. We're all infected. 20 is huge.

As far as "titrating limited healthcare resources", that's back to "flatten the curve". We seem to have moved beyond that, but in any event, if R0 is 20 you aren't going to be able to flatten that.

Because of the exponential nature, a factor 10 more contagious will have enormous impact.

 

[Astronuc]

I'm not sure how to interpret this. If it means the new strain has R0 above 10 (and probably above 15 or 20) it makes this the most infectious disease ever (well above measles) and the public health aspects are clear. End the lockdown now because we're all going to get infected, sooner rather than later.

If he means that R0 was 0.15 or so in February, why did it spread so rapidly?

Good points. I think the 10x seems to be a ballpark or order of magnitude estimate. I'd like to know how that number is determined, and how it relates to R_o. R_o is an epidemiological number, and from I can see from super-spreading events, it seems largely circumstantial.

Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R_o)
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article

With respect to the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2, and its R_o, I recently participated in a video-conference from a member of a team studying the virus and its spread, and a comment was made that the team has determined that the virus is relatively fragile outside the human body. They know this because they have measured it on various surfaces, and have measured the virus exposed to various environments, and apparently it doesn't survive very well in the natural environment outside of the human body.

 

[gleem]

I do not know if this article has been reference before in this thread but I will post it anyway.

Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6302597/

Abstract
The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. R0 is rarely measured directly, and modeled R0 values are dependent on model structures and assumptions. Some R0 values reported in the scientific literature are likely obsolete. R0 must be estimated, reported, and applied with great caution because this basic metric is far from simple.

 

[Jarvis323]

Remember that R0 isn't really a measure of infectiousness per say; it's a measure of transmission in a population dependent on all of the other factors (e.g. if the lockdown ends, R0 goes up). If I remember (I could be wrong) I thought that the 10X number was regarding how infectious it is in cell cultures. So I don't know what that translates into in terms of affecting R0. Transmission rate in a population involves other things such as how the virus transports from one person to another. Whatever the change does to "infectiousness" however they measured it, it also might not be a linear relationship with R0.

What we know is that the mutation results in the presentation of more functional spike proteins. And we know that this strain is dominating over the others, which suggests that it has a higher R0.

Even if we all get it eventually, as time goes on, treatments are getting better and the death rate is getting lower because of that. I'de rather get it later than sooner.

 

[Astronuc]

Even if we all get it eventually, as time goes on, treatments are getting better and the death rate is getting lower because of that. I'd rather get it later than sooner.

The death rate is lower, but many (I've heard 15% of COVID-19 patients) have long-term adverse health effects, e.g., possible neurological damage, cardiovascular damage, and damage to various organs, even if they do not have permanent lung damage. Based on 2.9 million cases in the US, then more than 400,000 people have long term adverse health effects.