COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[russ_watters]

Ridiculous fearmongering sentiment...

also asserts a baseless and largely contested scenario (movement restrictions/closures=total lockdown=total economic devestation...not at all a given)...

Since we've already done a pretty hard lockdown, we know exactly what the economic fallout was and will be again if we repeat (at a minimum -- doing it a second time would almost certainly be worse). The first one caused a 31% drop in GDP; the worst economic quarter in history.

I don't know how much more clear it needs to be. Losing thousands of wage earners with decades of productivity ahead of them to death or permanent health impacts WILL hurt the economy. Losing thousands of mortgage paying individuals, product and service consumers, business owners WILL hurt the economy.

We know those numbers too; we know that the vast majority of those who died were consumers only, not producers; Old people. 79% were age 65+.

I'm not saying we shouldn't do a lockdown, but just like we shouldn't downplay the number of lives at stake, we shouldn't downplay the economic damage of the choice either.

 

[jack action]

the commentary also seems to suggest that it is more favorable to let the wildfire burn out of control, and if it destroys the village, well, it is the fire's fault, not the firefighters who stood by with their fingers crossed.

Why must there always be someone to blame when something happens?

Stop acting like it is a binary choice here.

[...]

Now that it's so far gone the only real solution just might be an actual, enforced measure similar to a lockdown, those rejecting the reality staring them right in the face are railing against the same strawman once again without appreciating how that approach got us where we are in the first place. It's time to stop letting deluded people interefere with the management of this crisis.

I wish my life was so easy, having only one binary choice: either I'm deluded or I'm not. If people don't agree with me, just 'force' them to do as I think. Life is so simple.

Considering everything happening (including how people react to this crisis), I personally chose to stay home and I let others choose what is best for their life. I would've like to help protect the more vulnerable people, but apparently it is better to disrupt everyone's life equally rather than only investing efforts on a few. Even though it is not working because nobody takes into account the fact that not everyone have the same needs/priorities at the same time. It is so sad that people don't trust others to do the right thing; What's the point of being part of a society when you don't trust its members?

Winter is coming, I'll wait inside until the snowstorm is over. Wake me up when the vaccine cured everyone's fear. No needs to fight windmills for me.

 

[russ_watters]

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic. The case rate is starting to look like a hockey stick graph again. Thanksgiving is coming up. If the trend persists Christmas is going to be a massacre.

Here's where I'm at with the current situation:

I think more aggressive containment efforts are necessary right now. But what, exactly, that means/should be, I'm not sure.

I keep hearing from government/news media that the current outbreak escalation is caused primarily by small family/friend gatherings, not schools, restaurants and businesses. If that's true, then another lockdown might not just be futile, it could make the situation worse.

But I'm not sure I believe the media/government, and I haven't seen the data myself, if it is even public. My thought is that they seem to be basing their judgement on contact tracing. But contact tracing only works on small, clear infection trails. It doesn't work on community spread, where you don't know the person who infected you, or it could have been anyone of a large number of people. And it is disastrously overwhelmed/ineffective. So it is possible that they believe small family/friend gatherings are the problem because that's all they can detect.

Bottom line, I agree with you; we're in for a rough holiday season.

 

[russ_watters]

Considering everything happening (including how people react to this crisis), I personally chose to stay home and I let others choose what is best for their life. I would've like to help protect the more vulnerable people, but apparently it is better to disrupt everyone's life equally rather than only investing efforts on a few. Even though it is not working because nobody takes into account the fact that not everyone have the same needs/priorities at the same time. It is so sad that people don't trust others to do the right thing; What's the point of being part of a society when you don't trust its members?

The news quoted a poll just now that said 50% of people would ignore increased restrictions due to "covid fatigue". I don't see a path forward here that would result in a substantial improvement in the situation -- at least not a path forward people are willing to consider. Of course, if people were willing to consider such a path forward, we wouldn't need it.

 

[bhobba]

After the total stuff up by the Victorian government, with terrible loss of life and economic havoc, Australia has got the pandemic under control again - only 2 locally acquired in the last 7 days. So it is still there, but well suppressed at the moment. But bring on the vaccine I say. We have 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine on the way, but, to the embarrassment of our government, they forgot to tell the electorate it has not been tested on the group that needs it most - the elderly and vulnerable - rather embarrassing when it came out. The UQ vaccine is on track to be rolled by end 2021 - but they are hoping mid 2021. Already 50 million doses are in the works just waiting for the go ahead and results are, at least so far, it is most effective in the high risk group:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/university-of-queensland-coronavirus-vaccine-trials-prove-successful-on-elderly/news-story/414925bd8710ceef76a1fcdf9c2d7b02

Personally, and I only do it because it is harmless so there is no downside, I take the Quercetin prophylaxis of Dr Zev Zelenco:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1i7C_6H1Yq0u8lrzmnzt5N1JHg-b5Hb0E3nLixedgwpQ/edit

Whether it works or not is another matter. But his treatment has recently been published in a peer reviewed journal (even though the link I will give is from the preprint server):
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1

This HCQ thing refuses to go away one way or another - but the latest protocol of 400mg HCQ, 50mg Zinc and 200mg of Doxycycline for 5 days, I have been assured by my GP and Rheumatologist, is perfectly safe - just with 200mg Doxycycline watch the diarrhea.

Still that is just one study, others have different outcomes. Nothing has been settled.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atehundel]

Since we've already done a pretty hard lockdown...

Who is "we"? Because a great many areas of the nation barely closed this spring, if at all. Many places had their shelter or closure orders overturned. Many areas had orders with no teeth, providing no incentive to abide by them (except of course the prospect of controlling the pandemic). Spring break 2020 essentially invalidated your entire arguement, making anything that follows merely a cascade of dreck unrelated to the reality of the situation we are all in. It has been made very clear that if "lockdown" is imposed in one region, determined people will simply visit another region without the restrictions in place to meet their perceived needs. Those people bring the outbreak with them.

The arguements you tote out regarding our supposed kowledge of the possible effects of "lockdown" based on previous events are similarly shaky. You essentially blame 100% of the economic downturn early in the pandemic on lockdowns without considering even obvious additional contributions to that effect. What sort of other things might have taken a toll on the economy, you might ask? How about global uncertainty in the face of an emerging pandemic? How about a gross failure of the highest authority in the land to manage a remotely coherent or even logical strategy in the face of an emerging pandemic? How about the fears that were present relating to a largely unknown and unpredictable disease, do you think they even had the slightest of impact on decisions that tend to drive the market? Your cluelessness is highlighted by the fact that even though large areas of the country more or less stayed the course through the rise of the pandemic, the economic damage and other things like shortages were felt fairly broadly and almost immediately.

We also know that a majority of deaths are in elderly populations (setting aside for the moment whether "overwhelmingly" in this instance may be misapplied or at least not indicative of the whole story). What you seem to disregard is that in addition to there being some number of fatalities in other age groups, there are a great many other ways that the future earning potential of a number of individuals could be affected in both the short and long term by infection. It is reasonable to acknowledge that predictions of the magnitude of this aspect is less knowable with the limited time information has been available than the impact that deaths themselves have had. This is before we even account for the immedate effects of lost productivity as workers become infected and they themself or possibly other workers associated with them cannot perform their jobs.

You need to get serious and stop making mountains out of molehills when it comes to the formulation of your contrarian arguement. You build a lot of big tables on some pretty flimsy sticks, and seem to rely on a wall of text obscuring the weakness of your position. Attitudes that seem to reject what is staring them right in the face is what has gotten the situation in the US to where it is right now. Even now there is widespread percetption that not only have quite grand and extreme measures been already taken, but that fact is being offered as proof that it is not worth taking any exceptional measure since the pandemic continues to spin out of control. This has authorities in both public and private endeavors chasing their tails, as they attempt to both satisfy those concerned that we are racing towards a tipping point whereafter we will see a new level of carnage as well as those individuals who can't appreciate the utter comprehensive failure that is illustrated by the narrative of "well I've changed a lot, I hardly do anything anymore, oh well had dart league the other night, and so and so was over to visit the other day, and yeah this and that at work, and got to go to so and so's wedding reception, yeah cause I wouldn't if it was anyone else's, but..." and so on and so on.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.kptv.com/news/gov-brown-announces-covid-19-freeze-for-two-weeks-businesses-activities-to-be-limited-or/article_b1b31a8e-25e9-11eb-b314-1fee4812e39f.html

Friday’s freeze measures are far more sweeping for the state. They include:

• Limiting social get-togethers (indoors and outdoors) to no more than six people, total, from no more than two households.
• Limiting faith-based organizations to a maximum of 25 people indoors or 50 people outdoors.
• Limiting restaurants and bars to take-out only.
• Closing gyms and fitness organizations.
• Closing indoor recreational facilities, museums, indoor entertainment activities, and indoor pools and sports courts.
• Closing outdoor recreational facilities, zoos, gardens, aquariums, outdoor entertainment activities, and outdoor pools.
• Limiting grocery stores and pharmacies to a maximum of 75% capacity and encouraging curbside pick-up.
• Limiting retail stores and retail malls (indoor and outdoor) to a maximum of 75% capacity and encouraging curbside pick-up.
• Closing venues (that host or facilitate indoor or outdoor events).
• Requiring all businesses to mandate work-from-home to the greatest extent possible and closing offices to the public.
• Prohibiting indoor visiting in long-term care facilities.

This is a restrictive lockdown that will likely be longer than two weeks if cases keep increasing.

 

[mfb]

and will be again if we repeat

The proposal is not to repeat what was done before:

[Osterholm] said the government could borrow enough money to pay for a package that would cover lost income for individuals and governments during a shutdown.

(at a minimum -- doing it a second time would almost certainly be worse).

This is purely a hypothetical scenario, but I don't think a repetition (that no one plans!) would be worse. The first time everything was chaotic and unexpected. It's still somewhat chaotic but way less than in April.
And of course the economic downturn started before the government measures and went way beyond their impact. You can't assign all of the economic downturn to a specific set of government measures.

I keep hearing from government/news media that the current outbreak escalation is caused primarily by small family/friend gatherings, not schools, restaurants and businesses. If that's true, then another lockdown might not just be futile, it could make the situation worse.

Closing a specific set of businesses is not a lockdown (@nsaspook). A true lockdown - what we had in Italy for example - would ban the gatherings of people not living in the same household. The virus doesn't live long within individual households before everyone gets immune. If you can reduce the household-to-household spread you reduce the overall spread.

So it is possible that they believe small family/friend gatherings are the problem because that's all they can detect.

They are not completely stupid and they didn't start doing this yesterday. They see an increase in traced contacts from small gatherings relative to what happened before.

What's the point of being part of a society when you don't trust its members?

If everything would work based on trust we wouldn't need any laws. You think that will work? In some aspects I trust other members, but in aspects where trust has shown to not work I prefer having laws.

 

[nsaspook]

...
Closing a specific set of businesses is not a lockdown (@nsaspook). A true lockdown - what we had in Italy for example - would ban the gatherings of people not living in the same household.
...

https://www.kptv.com/news/brown-inslee-and-newsom-issue-recommended-14-day-travel-quarantine-for-west-coast/article_5832de18-25cb-11eb-ac16-5f3cc94d030b.html

SALEM, OR (KPTV) – The governors of Oregon, Washington and California have jointly announced new travel advisories for their states to combat the spread of COVID-19, which include a recommended 14-day quarantine after travel out of each state.

On Friday, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued the recommended advisories, “urging visitors entering their states or returning home from travel outside these states to self-quarantine to slow the spread of the virus.”

We still have freedom of movement but for Oregon, with so far lower cases than most states, it sure is a lockdown (‘freeze’ as in stop) as it closes almost all indoor/outdoor commercial entertainment activities.

 

[mfb]

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lockdown

a temporary condition imposed by governmental authorities (as during the outbreak of an epidemic disease) in which people are required to stay in their homes and [...]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown

A lockdown is a requirement for people to stay where they are

Closing some businesses and issuing travel recommendations is not a lockdown.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lockdown
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LockdownClosing some businesses and issuing travel recommendations is not a lockdown.

OK, "lockdown light" like in Germany.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-to-impose-one-month-partial-lockdown/a-55421241

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Germany's state premiers announced on Wednesday a new partial lockdown to begin on Monday, November 2.

The so-called nationwide "lockdown light" is a less intense version of the measures that brought German society and economic activity to a standstill in the spring.

Shortly after Merkel's announcement, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new lockdown across France.

 

[mfb]

We had the discussion about the refrigeration needs of BioNTech's vaccine before, we see the results in the planned distribution now: Pfizer vaccine: Over 80% of doses already sold to world’s richest countries

Many of the world’s poorer nations do not have the technology and facilities to meet this [cooling] requirement, meaning they will be unable to roll out any doses of the Pfizer vaccine they do receive on the same scale as their richer counterparts.

But at the same time people try to get this vaccine manufactured by more companies to get it at least to everyone where the cooling chain can be organized.

OK, "lockdown light" like in Germany.

And they didn't call it lockdown because that was something different.
Italy blocked roads, stopped trains and banned all outdoor activities that were not absolutely necessary. That included just going for a walk.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I keep hearing from government/news media that the current outbreak escalation is caused primarily by small family/friend gatherings, not schools, restaurants and businesses. If that's true, then another lockdown might not just be futile, it could make the situation worse.

I have not heard that, but if the premise is correct, your conclusions follow.

It's hard to argue that the lockdown rules are completely science-based. For example, the prohibition of cover charges in NYC bars. As we all know, cover charges kill.

 

[nsaspook]

Call it what you want, it's going to hurt people that have busted their behinds to do the right thing with zero compensation for those efforts.

A typical local business response.
https://www.kptv.com/news/oregon-business-community-reacts-to-new-covid-19-guidelines/article_5689a2bc-261c-11eb-9648-2bca84e93781.html

Willamette Valley Vineyards founder and CEO Jim Bernau says what was laid out Friday is frustrating.

“This is absolutely the wrong decision for the governor to make,” Bernau said.

His frustration stems from the new guidelines that will limit what his business can do.

“We have not had one case contact traced back to our winery, none of our employees have contacted the workplace or in communication with our guests,” Bernau said.He adds the winery has taken every stop possible, including a NASA grade UV air filtration system to a special film on surfaces to kill viruses.

“We have spent over $50,000 just ourselves in our small business putting into effect these levels of safety,” Bernau said.

Willamette Valley Vineyards recently bought igloos to offer outdoor, safe seating for guests to enjoy food and wine in.

“We just recently purchased these igloos, we have installed igloos outside where guests can stay inside their family bubble, their safety bubble and still come out to the winery and enjoy food and wine,” Bernau said.

But now, under these new restrictions, they won’t be able to use until restrictions are eased.

My youngest daughter takes martial arts in a small class that spent thousands on extra equipment and class reconfiguration to keep everyone safe. Now they are looking at a least a month of downtime that IMO will have zero effect on the irresponsible youth cases going up or down.
https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/11/why-are-oregons-covid-19-cases-rising-so-fast.html

Why is Oregon seeing a surge in Coronavirus cases? “Two words: social gatherings,” said Dr. Dean Sidelinger, state epidemiologist, on Friday.
...
The Oregon Health Authority said Thursday that small social gatherings are acting “as a catalyst” for transmission of the coronavirus.

Without in-class school this have been one of the few things she had as an out of home activity. The mental health costs of these restrictions is high.

 

[mfb]

Call it what you want, it's going to hurt people that have busted their behinds to do the right thing with zero compensation for those efforts.

From the news you linked:

Shutting down businesses and paying people for lost wages for four to six weeks

 

[PeroK]

After the total stuff up by the Victorian government, with terrible loss of life and economic havoc, Australia has got the pandemic under control again - only 2 locally acquired in the last 7 days.

If the Australian government has messed up (35 deaths per million), what do you think the Beligian government as been doing (1215 deaths per million)? And France lost more people only yesterday than Australia has in total.

Your government has worked wonders. You have to give credit where credit's due.

 

[stefan r]

In the 1770s George Washington inoculated the continental army with small pox. This was actual live virus. Infection via a small cut in the skin makes the resulting infection less severe.

If we are considering a shutdown along with its economic consequences and if we are also seriously considering another round of trillion dollar stimulus spending we have some options. We could invite all of the young, healthy, and willing to 3 or 4+ week parties in places like Los Vegas or Disney world. (perhaps church camp if you must). In Pennsylvania we have music fest most summers. We can stretch it to 4 weeks of free hotel, food, concert tickets, and medical care. Everyone elderly or immune compromised who is living in festival cities would need to be evacuated. You get the first food/hotel/ticket voucher packet when you take the first micro-dose of active virus. You keep getting vouchers while testing positive.

Clearly the body count would be high. If we go for herd immunity then we have clearly failed. Failed horribly. However, we have averaged 30,000 deaths a month and it is starting to look worse. A few million extra immune people is a few million closer to herd immunity. The "victims" would have a low fatality rate because of the low initial dose and because the initial dose came through the least dangerous route. If you know the exact time of infection you can target it with anti-viral drugs early. The best veteran doctors and nurses from Covid wards around the country/region can staff the hospitals near the festivals.

 

[bhobba]

Your government has worked wonders. You have to give credit where credit's due.

Overall yes. But it could have been much better if not for what happened in Victoria which was a total stuff up. Before the quarantine debace Victoria had 20 deaths. Now it is under control again it has over 800 deaths, nearly all of which could have been avoided. That is what makes many Australians 'mad'; it was all avoidable by simply having a good efficient bureaucracy.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

From the news you linked:

That's unemployment insurance for workers if they are not independent contractors.
https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/unemployment-insurance

The business owners don't get a dime as the state has no money to give.

https://www.salemreporter.com/posts...-oregon-gov-kate-brown-orders-state-to-freeze

Brown acknowledged the order would come with a staggering economic cost and said blunting that impact will require action like the federal relief bill Congress passed in the spring.

Now close personal services like barbershops, hair salons and massage parlors get to stay open.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oregon/articles/2020-11-13/oregon-gov-kate-brown-announces-14-day-statewide-freeze

“The hardest part last time was not closing down or washing my hands more, the hardest part was laying off 50 people,” he said. “So to have to do this again is hard to even think about.”
Caraeff had to lay off his employees and has since rehired all but two of them. He has spent the last weeks retrofitting his establishments for outdoor dining in Oregon’s wet winter weather.
He said the latest closure order will be devastating for him and his employees.
Under the new orders, all businesses will be required to close their offices to the public and mandate work-from-home “to the greatest extent possible," Brown said.
The freeze does not apply to barber shops, hair salons, congregate homeless sheltering, outdoor recreation and sports, youth programs, childcare, and K-12 schools that are already open.

and there is the criminal legal threat of enforcement that's a paper tiger for actual violations.
https://www.kptv.com/oregon-governor-to-utilize-law-enforcement-to-enforce-new-covid-19-freeze-restrictions/video_e69501d9-a0b8-57a1-aa48-b51c6fe20f12.html
https://www.heraldandnews.com/news/...cle_1b0a6d82-a999-5b60-b67c-1506e5e363a6.html

Klamath County law enforcement leaders don’t plan to enforce the gathering limits.
“The Klamath County Sheriff’s Office will not be enforcing any of the governor’s mandates,” Sheriff Chris Kaber said. “We haven’t from the beginning and it’s not our responsibility to enforce those.”

Most local law enforcement has said, they won't do it.

I see the need for a crackdown to keep medical services from being overloaded but we shouldn't be shocked that the exponential growth in cases is not stopped by these types of measures.

 

[atehundel]

Call it what you want, it's going to hurt people that have busted their behinds to do the right thing with zero compensation for those efforts.

No, it's not a matter of "calling it what you want". It's no more proper to call a bus a car or refer to a cat as a canid. The only reason to refer to something as a lockdown when it is no such thing is to add weight to a position by making measures sound more restrictive than they actually are. What's more, if finance was the only position to make an argument from, a genuine lockdown where most individuals are forcibly restricted to their homes would likely make the most sense, as it would maximize the effectiveness of the control measures and arguably result in the shortest time interval they would have to be implimented. We will not do something like this in the United States. The desirable effects are too far offset by the fundamental trampling of the population's freedom of movement. So we can all stop referring to a "lockdown" as a measure to be considered in the US. To do otherwise is simply an appeal to fear.

Since we have staked more value on individual freedoms than other nations we are forced to apply other more imperfect measures which bring their own set of impacts on business and the economy. It's a trade-off. But it promises at least a somewhat better outcome than to just step back and leave the situation to fate. And it's foolish to argue that early measures were imperfect as some counter to further financial assistance legislation. I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that nobody is being hurt by the public closures, but much disagreement is stalling further attempts to address all groups impacted. Again, the inability of top-level leadership to get on a footing to provide relief is deepening the problem, however this should not be taken to invalidate the necessity of measures taken to mitigate the scale of the health crisis. Time is not on our side either way, but in one case the expected benefits are more easily realized.

 

[hmmm27]

We could invite all of the young, healthy, and willing to 3 or 4+ week parties in places like Los Vegas or Disney world.

Nah, they could still escape. How about cruise ships ? They aren't doing anything.

Don't come back until everybody's immune.

 

[StevieTNZ]

I thought social distancing would be a wise move to tell people to follow. Except, we have the following happening instead:

 

[WWGD]

I thought social distancing would be a wise move to tell people to follow. Except, we have the following happening instead:
View attachment 272629

And then we have the riots on the left. Just to show stupidity does not know political boundaries.

 

[Evo]

And then we have the riots on the left. Just to show stupidity does not know political boundaries.

What riots? You mean the recent ones that were found to have been started by White Supremacists?

https://www.wsls.com/news/virginia/...supremacists-disguised-as-black-lives-matter/

But let's not sidetrack this thread.

 

[atyy]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10...leading-technology-in-the-covid-vaccine-race/

Interesting article about the mRNA vaccine development by Moderna, and by Pfizer and BioNTech. I'm certainly skeptical of the 90% claim for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine until the data is released, but it makes me feel better knowing that Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci are involved in it (having read a little bit of their work on other subjects).

 

[stefan r]

Nah, they could still escape. How about cruise ships ? They aren't doing anything.

Don't come back until everybody's immune.

A few bypasses or escapes would not make much difference. Escaping from Los Vegas would be an ordeal. If you escape you lose your free food, free housing, and your event tickets. You also invalidated your medical insurance so if you did need a doctor you would end up paying out of pocket. This is simply not going to happen very frequently.

The biggest challenge would be preventing people from getting a high exposure instead of waiting for the low exposure to incubate.

Cruise ships would work well. Also islands. There is an ethical problem with the idea of evacuating a native population. In the case of Los Vegas the mayor was on cable news proposing early opening of Los Vegas. That makes it stick in my mind as a default location for virus fest.

Universities would be an obvious place to attempt inoculation. For the first six to eight weeks after inoculation have in person classes while the professors lecture via zoom on a projector. Keep immune compromised students on zoom too. You would get a reasonably close to scientific comparison of the low dose inoculation versus the community spread infection. The New York Times reports 252,000 cases on at colleges and universities. There have been 80 reported deaths and most of them are staff. Inoculating 100 million low risk people would result in much less than 32,000 deaths.

College classes are a lot less fun than music festivals IMO. Wearing masks everywhere along with testing and tracing is pretty easy. Covid19 should be easy to kill quickly. Having failed to take the easy road we could at least enjoy life while reducing the harm.

 

[atyy]

Infectious-Disease Expert Urges For Caution Over Pfizer's Vaccine. Here's Why

Possible, but we know people are at least 10 times less likely to show symptoms. That means less coughing, and it almost certainly means lower viral loads in general. It will certainly help.

In an interview, Ugur Sahin says that while the 90% reduction refers to symptoms, and not transmission, he has reasonable hopes for a 50% reduction in transmission.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799
"I'm very confident that transmission between people will be reduced by such a highly effective vaccine - maybe not 90% but maybe 50% - but we should not forget that even that could result in a dramatic reduction of the pandemic spread," he said.

 

[bhobba]

What riots? You mean the recent ones that were found to have been started by White Supremacists?

I don't like this left right thing either during ordinary times, but especially during a pandemic. My observation from here in Aus, it is not the philosophy of the government, it is how well they run it. In my view both sides have not done a stellar job in that regard.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

A San Antonio family is making plans for a 4-year-old boy, Raiden Gonzalez has lost both his parents, Adan Gonzalez III and Mariah Salinas, to COVID-19. Adan Gonzalez III tested positive on June 3, was hospitalized on June 9 and died in a San Antonio hospital on June 26.

At the beginning of October, Mariah Salinas had a sudden onset of symptoms at home. She was rushed to the hospital where her health declined rapidly. "She was gone within 12 hours," said Bryant. Mariah, just 29 years old, died 102 days after her husband, who was 33. Both parents were relatively young.

Source: https://abc11.com/raiden-gonzalez-t...-loses-coronavirus-san-antonio-covid/7939647/

Justin Hunter's parents were quarantined separately at home and eventually hospitalized. His father, 59, died July 26. His mother, 57, died July 30, he told the station. Hunter said his parents met in college and had been married for 35 years. CBS News has reached out to people close to the Hunters for more information.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-deaths-17-year-old-boy-both-parents/

 

[mfb]

@stefan r: Death is not the only negative effect the disease can have. How many millions or even tens of millions do you want to leave with long-term lung or heart damage?

 

[morrobay]

A San Antonio family is making plans for a 4-year-old boy, Raiden Gonzalez has lost both his parents, Adan Gonzalez III and Mariah Salinas, to COVID-19. Adan Gonzalez III tested positive on June 3, was hospitalized on June 9 and died in a San Antonio hospital on June 26.

At the beginning of October, Mariah Salinas had a sudden onset of symptoms at home. She was rushed to the hospital where her health declined rapidly. "She was gone within 12 hours," said Bryant. Mariah, just 29 years old, died 102 days after her husband, who was 33. Both parents were relatively young.

Source: https://abc11.com/raiden-gonzalez-t...-loses-coronavirus-san-antonio-covid/7939647/

Yes both were fairly young. And both appear very overweight, maybe diabetic too.

 

[StevieTNZ]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has. Some other countries, garbage as an administration.

 

[atyy]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has. Some other countries, garbage as an administration.

Are NZ people brutally honest like AM Show Interview from self-isolation in NZ (4:32 -4:50)

 

[waternohitter]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has. Some other countries, garbage as an administration.

I strongly agree with you.

 

[Astronuc]

Reuters - Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...han-thought-italian-study-shows-idUSKBN27V0KF

Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a little town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy. But Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show that 11,6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020, had developed Coronavirus antibodies well before February.

A further specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.

It showed that four cases dated back to the first week of October were also positive for antibodies neutralizing the virus, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters.

 

[Rive]

Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows

Regarding this study, there are some concerns about the credibility/interpretation of the original study

My humble opinion is that it's better to take it as a proof that some kind of cross-reaction exist between antibodies from older infections and Covid-19 than proof of early presence of Covid-19.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It all comes down to competent leadership - much like NZ has.

It was wise of the NZ government to constitute their country on an island (well, two major islands). The Federated States of Micronesia must have the best government in the world - zero cases.

 

[atyy]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908
Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

 

[Ygggdrasil]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908
Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

More importantly, it should be easier to distribute than the Pfizer vaccine:

A key advantage of Moderna’s vaccine is that it does not need ultra-cold storage like Pfizer’s, making it easier to distribute. Moderna expects it to be stable at standard refrigerator temperatures of 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 48°F) for 30 days and it can be stored for up to 6 months at -20 degrees Celsius.

Pfizer’s vaccine must be shipped and stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius, the sort of temperature typical of an Antarctic winter. At standard refrigerator temperatures, it can be stored for up to five days.

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...ffective-in-preventing-covid-19-idUSKBN27W1EJ via https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/coronovirus-vaccine-progress.992484/post-6417888

As with the Pfizer/BioNTech trial, the primary endpoint measured in the trial was symptomatic COVID-19 disease, so it could be possible that the vaccine does not prevent asymptomatic infection. We need more information from the trial to determine whether the vaccine is able to block infection and transmission of the virus or whether it merely prevent symptoms of the disease.

 

[StevieTNZ]

It was wise of the NZ government to constitute their country on an island (well, two major islands). The Federated States of Micronesia must have the best government in the world - zero cases.

Well, it was the British Government that constitued three islands as NZ.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Are NZ people brutally honest like AM Show Interview from self-isolation in NZ (4:32 -4:50)

I would hope so!

 

[mfb]

Reuters - Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...han-thought-italian-study-shows-idUSKBN27V0KF

They claim to find antibodies in 10% of the samples from 2019. That's of the scale of the March/April wave in many places. It can't have been the same virus, that would have flooded hospitals and we didn't see that. Whatever formed these antibodies - it was something else. As long as they don't identify that "something else" it's unclear what we can learn from that study.Sweden stages Coronavirus U-turn, banning public events with more than eight people

 

[russ_watters]

I have not heard that, but if the premise is correct, your conclusions follow.

It's hard to argue that the lockdown rules are completely science-based. For example, the prohibition of cover charges in NYC bars. As we all know, cover charges kill.

From Friday's paper:

While it may seem counterintuitive that state officials aren’t turning back to stay-at-home orders and business closures as daily cases top 5,000, public health experts who spoke to Spotlight PA said widespread lockdowns aren’t the answer...

In Pennsylvania, there’s enough contact tracing data to show that infections are spreading because of small, private gatherings, where people let their guard down among family and friends.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...-tracing-masks-small-gatherings-20201113.html

But now:

Philadelphia will close indoor restaurant dining, gyms, and museums starting on Friday and will require office workers to work remotely in an effort to slow the spread of the Coronavirus as new cases surge.

The new restrictions will last through Jan. 1, and include limits on outdoor gatherings and a ban on public and private indoor gatherings — making it a violation of city regulations for residents to hold holiday gatherings with anyone outside their own households...

They also require high schools and colleges to hold classes virtually. Day cares, elementary schools, and middle schools will be permitted to continue in-person instruction.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...ng-hospital-news-20201116.html#card-996471612

Restrictions on private indoor gatherings are largely meaningless because as far as I can tell there is no way to enforce such things (but I'll let you know if I'm wrong about that...I'm dating someone who lives in Philly and that would complicate things...). But closing schools and forcing businesses to close is something the government can easily do, so they are doing it.

 

[Borg]

I just watched an evening newscast where a hospital nurse reported that she has had people on their deathbed who still think that the virus is a hoax. Wow.

https://abc.com/shows/world-news-tonight/episode-guide/2020-11/16-monday-november-16-2020 - seven minutes into the video.

 

[russ_watters]

Who is "we"? Because a great many areas of the nation barely closed this spring, if at all. Many places had their shelter or closure orders overturned. Many areas had orders with no teeth, providing no incentive to abide by them (except of course the prospect of controlling the pandemic).

Well I guess "success" depends on the thresholds you set. We have cell phone location data that says in counties with stay-at-home orders, the average drop in mobility was 83% a few weeks in:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

But in any case, questioning the efficacy of the restrictions on COVID mitigation wasn't what you were talking about; economic impact was. So you seem to not be following your own point.

The arguements you tote out regarding our supposed kowledge of the possible effects of "lockdown" based on previous events are similarly shaky. You essentially blame 100% of the economic downturn early in the pandemic on lockdowns without considering even obvious additional contributions to that effect. What sort of other things might have taken a toll on the economy, you might ask? How about global uncertainty in the face of an emerging pandemic? How about a gross failure of the highest authority in the land to manage a remotely coherent or even logical strategy in the face of an emerging pandemic? How about the fears that were present relating to a largely unknown and unpredictable disease, do you think they even had the slightest of impact on decisions that tend to drive the market?

Your prior point was that when people die, they leave the market. That's true, and it is quantifiable. Also, the impact of staying home sick is quantifiable. But those numbers are tiny compared with the economic downturn, so they were not a large fraction of it.

Fear and uncertainty is hard to quantify except in the stock market, and it isn't reflecting fear and uncertainty.
The effects of the shutdowns show in how the GDP dropped in Q2 when the shutdowns were implemented and then rose in Q3 when they were lifted (and vice versa for unemployment).

...even though large areas of the country more or less stayed the course through the rise of the pandemic, the economic damage and other things like shortages were felt fairly broadly and almost immediately.

Supply shortages are caused by the production in one place effecting supply everywhere, so they aren't indicative of regional effects. And most economic data are presented nationally. But the impact of shutdowns can be seen in unemployment data at the state level:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/4...nemployment-rates-in-april-2020.htm?view_full

One example: the highest unemployment was in Nevada, almost certainly because their economy is heavily dependent on tourism.

Also: You need to watch your tone and stop with the insults. We require civility on this forum.

 

[StevieTNZ]

I just watched an evening newscast where a hospital nurse reported that she has had people on their deathbed who still think that the virus is a hoax. Wow.

Sounds like some ex-Harold Camping followers.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Russ,

A study on quarantined Marine recruits (DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2029717) seems to support The Philadelphia Story. (sorry...couldn't resist). Quarantine or not made little difference (and what difference there was goes the wrong way) but sharing a bedroom or a bathroom does.

Also, a few months ago, I commented that geography alters ones perceptions: in places like New Jersey, the rate is such that most people know at least one person who died of Covid, but in places like Vermont, few do. Well, I know - rather, knew - two casualties of the lockdown - one accidental death and one suicide.

 

[russ_watters]

The proposal is not to repeat what was done before:
[Osterholm: the government could borrow enough money to pay for a package that would cover lost income for individuals and governments during a shutdown. ]

If that was referenced in this conversation, I missed it. But regardless, that's a hypothetical from a member of an administration that won't exist for two more months, so it can have no impact on shutdown plans that are being enacted as we speak. Also, it's a stretch to even call it a "proposal", since it is one guy's idea, which at that point he hadn't even shared with his new boss, who doesn't agree with it:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/bid...ould-control-pandemic-and-revive-economy.html

This is purely a hypothetical scenario, but I don't think a repetition (that no one plans!) would be worse. The first time everything was chaotic and unexpected. It's still somewhat chaotic but way less than in April.
[snip] You can't assign all of the economic downturn to a specific set of government measures.

I don't think chaos was the primary driver of the damage. I'm not even really sure what you mean by that -- I didn't see much of what I'd consider "chaos". Shutting businesses and laying off workers was the damage. Yes, I'm speculating, but it is a pretty logical speculation: in order to survive a downturn in business, a business needs a war chest of money. Businesses that had their war chests depleted have not had time to replenish them. This isn't a matter of the weak businesses dying off and the strong that survived are fine now. They're not; lots are damaged and in more danger because of the damage.

And as I'm typing this, I heard this on the news, from a business owner in Philadelphia, where new restrictions were announced today:
"We believe we are going to see a worse wave of business closures this time than we saw thus far, because we used all of our resources to get through this summer."

And of course the economic downturn started before the government measures and went way beyond their impact.

What data are you looking at to support that? Here's the weekly new unemployment claims for the US:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Most of the jump happened in the 3rd week in March: the week the shutdowns started, and the peak was in mid-April. Then they started dropping as businesses gradually re-opened.

GDP in the US dropped 5% in Q1, the quarter that ended just as the restrictions were being put in place, and was down 31% in Q2. It's pretty close to an exact match of 2 weeks of shutdown following 10 of normalcy in Q1, to the Q2 drop. Then things mostly re-opened in Q3 and the GDP went back up.

The only indicator I know of that showed anything before the shutdowns started was the stock market, which is a leading indicator, not an indicator of at-the-time damage.

Closing a specific set of businesses is not a lockdown (@nsaspook). A true lockdown - what we had in Italy for example - would ban the gatherings of people not living in the same household.

Granted -- the media throws around that term wantonly and I need be more careful about how I use it. We primarily have had shutdowns, not lockdowns. But still, a ban on gatherings not in the same household - which Philly just re-implemented, isn't a lockdown either, it's just a stay-at-home order. It only becomes a lockdown if it is enforced. I don't know if Italy enforced theirs, but the USA did not. As a practical matter, Western countries are unable and as a philosophical matter are unwilling to enforce them.

They are not completely stupid and they didn't start doing this yesterday. They see an increase in traced contacts from small gatherings relative to what happened before.

I don't think they are stupid. What they are is woefully under-manned, and incapable of tracing the majority of infections.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/coron...lly-contact-tracing-pa-nj-cases-20201027.html
https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...ng-hospital-news-20201116.html#card-996471612

Half of people don't cooperate. Half of those who do don't know who infected them. And as of this past week, less than a third get traced at all (the article is almost 3 weeks old). So that's just 8% of cases being successfully traced. I don't know if they are prioritizing the tracing, but again, logic tells me that a small social gathering where the participants all know each other (and later share COVID status with each other) would be the easiest to trace. It's an awfully big margin for error and potential systemic bias.

 

[Astronuc]

How bad could it get?

A nurse at a strained El Paso hospital says the sickest COVID-19 patients are put in a doctor-less room called 'the pit' where they are given 3 chances to be revived before workers let them die
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-el-paso-hospital-nurse-lawanna-rivers-video-2020-11

What is happening in El Paso is similar to what happened in parts of NY City during late March into April where hospitals got overwhelmed and morgues and funeral homes backed up, or overflowing. Some bodies were not claimed so they were placed in mass graves.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/04/27/hart-island-mass-grave-coronavirus-burials/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...-island-cemetery-shorter-deadline-claim-dead/


https://www.fox5ny.com/news/hart-island-burials-soar-during-coronavirus-pandemic
From March 3 to June 4, crews buried 725 people on Hart Island.

The peak came the week of April 6, when 138 adults were buried, according to data from the Department of Correction. (The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner does not provide the cause of death of whoever is sent to Hart, so it isn't clear if these were all COVID-19 victims.)

 

[mfb]

I don't think chaos was the primary driver of the damage. I'm not even really sure what you mean by that -- I didn't see much of what I'd consider "chaos".

Uncertainty about the future, often even uncertainty about the current state - what is allowed, what is not, will that change again tomorrow? Can our business stay open, and if yes how do we need to modify it?

What data are you looking at to support that? Here's the weekly new unemployment claims for the US:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The economic downturn didn't start with unemployment filings. It started when people bought less stuff, which started before any public measures were implemented (and pretty much in parallel everywhere independent of when exactly the government acted). We had this discussion months ago when it was new, I don't think we need to repeat it.
You can also look at Sweden if you like. No businesses were forced to close - but their economy still went down dramatically.

GDP in the US dropped 5% in Q1, the quarter that ended just as the restrictions were being put in place, and was down 31% in Q2. It's pretty close to an exact match of 2 weeks of shutdown following 10 of normalcy in Q1, to the Q2 drop.

You can't see that in quarterly data and the hand-waving isn't helping.

I don't think they are stupid. What they are is woefully under-manned, and incapable of tracing the majority of infections.

So why do you accuse them of drawing stupid conclusions?
You don't need much statistics to notice that more and more infections can be traced to family/friends gatherings. The statement was about a change. Earlier more infections were traced to other sources, recently more infections were traced to family/friends gatherings.

A nurse at a strained El Paso hospital says the sickest COVID-19 patients are put in a doctor-less room called 'the pit' where they are given 3 chances to be revived before workers let them die
[...]
What is happening in El Paso is similar to what happened in parts of NY City during late March into April where hospitals got overwhelmed and morgues and funeral homes backed up, or overflowing. Some bodies were not claimed so they were placed in mass graves.

Total COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US reached new records - this is not surprising.

@Vanadium 50: Looking back at your earlier comment, would you agree that the system in El Paso is overwhelmed? If not, how much worse does it need to get?