COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[peanut]

I think he's right: A new clause in our social contract is required because until a vaccine or cure is found, our behaviour will control our fate.

"Achieving this degree of social protection will require a new clause in our social contract that will mean fewer contacts with others and wearing protective gear. Just as we obey the most basic laws in order to protect all of us, everyone needs to accept responsibility for not only our circle of friends, family and colleagues, but for the wider community. Our collective behavior will be the primary determinant of whether we can keep this virus in check. We each hold the health of our neighbors in our hands."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/...uJnoeZSDR0U-XrQAY0-L0_NZxHI2MgRu8gAwqqXRQM2z8

 

[Vanadium 50]

Can you say the death rate would have been similar without the social distancing?

Nope.

I also can't say if mandating it (where it is mandated) makes a difference or not.

I can't say that the lockdown was a net benefit or not. I suspect less beneficial than will be claimed because, at least in NY, it started late. As I said in another thread "If someone proposed ahead of time that the plan is to let the infected and uninfected mingle for two weeks and once things are good and spread and the symptoms start appearing, then we lock everything down, I don't think we'd all be cheering this on as a great idea."

I also can't tell that banning the sale of vegetable seeds in Copper Harbor, Michigan is saving lives. But I have my suspicions.

 

[peanut]

There seems to be evidence suggesting that there may be a correlation between a policy of BCG VACCINE FOR ALL and lower infection and fatality rates from Corvid...

1. BCG is a vaccine that consists of weakened or attenuated bacteria related to tuberculosis;
2. I think this is part of a host of vaccines that we get when we were children;
3. The result of these studies should be most useful as the race to produce an anti Corvid vaccine continues...

https://theaseanpost.com/article/ca...Cqg2tjTVyYtbfDalD30xYNEPR-jIQ_djqwes_JOpPESMc

 

[russ_watters]

A lesson on exponential function

https://centerforinquiry.org/blog/i...-vuGmtoe_W-DYwuAZmK6W10XBDGyrijcgPA5wZQLHiFDE

That author's opinions seem to be based on the idea that management of the virus isn't possible. That the only two options are actual-full lockdown and just letting it run wild. He even suggests the current partial shutdown approach won't eliminate exponential growth (e.g., is functionally equivalent to letting it run wild)...which it appears he wrote the day after the peak growth rate in the US.

To me the key to management is getting the infection rate low enough that test-trace-quarantine can be effective like it is in South Korea and a few other places.

 

[kadiot]

Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, has PhD in Quantum Chemistry.

https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...a-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/

 

[TeethWhitener]

Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, has PhD in Quantum Chemistry.

https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...a-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/

For some reason I (mis)remembered her PhD being in biophysics.

But yes, of all the world leaders, she is probably the most scientifically qualified to deal with this pandemic.

 

[kadiot]

For some reason I (mis)remembered her PhD being in biophysics.

But yes, of all the world leaders, she is probably the most scientifically qualified to deal with this pandemic.

She studied Physics first and then Quantum Chemistry. But they are still in the top 10. Looks like all the best human brains combined will not win against this virus.

 

[atyy]

Physicists Design Emergency Ventilators
https://physics.aps.org/articles/v13/58
Using their experimental expertise, three groups of physicists are developing ventilators that could help in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[chirhone]

Do you personally know someone with Covid and died? I know 2. One is an anesthesiologist, another is a neighbor in the province. The latter is 74 hears old. He suffered fever and cough. And improving when he suddenly encountered difficult breathing and then later died 2 days ago from heart attack. I don't know if the virus directly affects his heart.

There is something I don't quite understand. Is the mode of transmission still controversial? Isn't it like the flu? Why are Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee easing up restrictions and allowing people back to the mall or movie houses when positive Covid in the US can reach 1 million next week and 45,000 death? Can't there be increased transmission and infection by easing up restrictions?

Are their mindset about developing herd immunity by just getting everyone infected? In this case, the victims are expendable or collateral damage? But thinking of the two people I know. The victims in Italy and the USA are not really expendable, are they?

If Covid is transmitted similar to the flu. Then by wearing full face respirator that can protect your mouth, nose and eyes (and washing all parts of your body). You can protect yourself from all kinds of flu and coronavirus, right? Or since virus are particles and fields. Are there other modes of transmission like tunneling such that the governors in George, South Carolina, Tennessee and even some of you think the death is similar with or without lockdown (with or without social distancing)?

 

[atyy]

There is something I don't quite understand. Is the mode of transmission still controversial? Isn't it like the flu?

There is some uncertainty, but the major points are established.

Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations
https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...plications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

 

[morrobay]

Which denominator? There are at least three probabilities being bandied about:

1. The probability of death once exposed
2. The probability of death once infected
3. The probability of death once symptomatic

The working assumption is that 1 and 2 are nearly equal, and 3 is smaller. That may or may not prove to be the case.

Shouldn't number one be: 1. The probability of infection once one is exposed. IE There is an exposure gradient with brush surface contacts that do not result in infections. And then there are viral loads variables with initial exposure ,the less the viral load the better ones immune system can handle it. Edit: Is there any data that quantifies what exposures result in infection.

 

[kadiot]

Pasteur Institute: 5.7% of the French population will have been contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 by May 11 (and only 1.8% in Brittany.)

The study was carried out by modellers from the Institut Pasteur, the CNRS (National Scientific Research Centre) and Inserm (National Health and Medical Research Institute).

According to the study, the statistics are not nearly high enough to prevent a second wave of infection cases spiking following deconfinement.

The models also showed that number of hospitalisation and ICU cases will have dropped significantly in Brittany by 11 May. This is largely due to Brittany population's general adherence to confinement measures that are in place.

https://www.letelegramme.fr/france/...1-mai-selon-une-etude-21-04-2020-12541794.php

 

[Vanadium 50]

Shouldn't number one be: 1. The probability of infection once one is exposed

I said at least three numbers. Lots of numbers are being bandied about. You want to add a fourth or a tenth to my list, have at it.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why are Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee easing up restrictions and allowing people back to the mall or movie houses when positive Covid in the US can reach 1 million next week and 45,000 death?

Like so many of your other posts, this one is untrue. South Carolina is not "allowing people back into movie houses". Entertainment venues were closed April 1st, are not subject to the reopening, and even if they were would be limited to 5 customers per 1000 square feet, which means only a dozen or so people could watch a movie.

I didn't check the others. Since you can make up a falsehood faster than I can check it, this is a losing proposition for me. But if you keep saying things that aren't true, people will stop taking you seriously.

If they haven't already.

 

[bhobba]

Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown. We don't have protest anymore because those who did initally we still in jail.

Different countries, different approaches to priorities. It's a balance between individual freedom, protecting people, plus the economy. For example although Australia and NZ are very similar, NZ went for level 4 lockdown, Australia level 3, yet have about the same level of the virus. One can argue level 4 is not necessary - although I would not because other differences come into play eg population density.

Thanks
Bill

 

[TeethWhitener]

I didn't check the others

Georgia seems to be getting the most press right now: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...conomy-lifting-some-coronavirus-crisis-limits

Employees at "gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios," as well as "barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists," will be allowed to return to work on Friday but will have to operate under restrictions.

The mandatory conditions at the workplaces include social distancing, enhanced cleanings, screening workers for fevers and respiratory illness, wearing gloves and a mask if appropriate, moving workplaces 6 feet apart, staggering work shifts and, if possible, teleworking.

Edit: specifically about movie houses:

On Monday, April 27, sit-down restaurants, theaters and private social clubs will be allowed to reopen, "subject to specific social distancing & sanitation mandates," according to the governor.

 

[chirhone]

There is some uncertainty, but the major points are established.

Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations
https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...plications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

As a biology expert. Can you comment on this:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rJMlNWALvltglsFpAGDSubnDX2fUbIrZa1wMN-aM-m-c#

"How does Coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes"

"Despite the more than 1000 papers now spilling into journals and onto preprint servers every week, a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen."

Not an exaggeration?

I have seen the following (from the article above) directly on the family friend. The virus made him suffer a heart attack and he didn't die from pneumonia but the virus directly damaging the heart.

"In Brescia, Italy, a 53-year-old woman walked into the emergency room of her local hospital with all the classic symptoms of a heart attack, including telltale signs in her electrocardiogram and high levels of a blood marker suggesting damaged cardiac muscles. Further tests showed cardiac swelling and scarring, and a left ventricle—normally the powerhouse chamber of the heart—so weak that it could only pump one-third its normal amount of blood. But when doctors injected dye in the coronary arteries, looking for the blockage that signifies a heart attack, they found none. Another test revealed why: The woman had COVID-19."

Is Covid-19 like a transient HIV/AIDS.

Tomorrow I'll accompany someone to a laboratory for routine medical checkup. I'll be wearing full PPE frontliners use (like 3M half face respirators, medical googles, face shield, etc.). But still nervous.

 

[bhobba]

But they are still in the top 10. Looks like all the best human brains combined will not win against this virus.

I disagree. We have the technology, our scientific knowledge is advancing quickly, we have well trained and smart people, some very smart eg Nobel prize winners. We have people like Bill Gates, who, along with Warren Buffet, are going to spend billions of their own money on a 'gamble', by in parallel bulk manufacturing the 7 most promising vaccines, so when the best one is identified it's ready to inoculate the world. This is a test of the human spirit - I believe, and I know it sounds schmaltzy, but I believe we will not fail.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown.

Once again, false. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/new...s-containment-center-to-stem-coronavirus.html

If you don't like that one, Google says there are 7,200,000 links just like it.

 

[DennisN]

Looks like all the best human brains combined will not win against this virus.

I disagree.

I disagree too.

Furthermore, it is worth remembering that humankind has survived quite many pandemics, including the worst one in history, the Black Death in the 14th century. And the scientific and medical expertise of humankind is much, much better today than in the 14th century .

 

[atyy]

As a biology expert. Can you comment on this:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rJMlNWALvltglsFpAGDSubnDX2fUbIrZa1wMN-aM-m-c#

"How does Coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes"

"Despite the more than 1000 papers now spilling into journals and onto preprint servers every week, a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen."

Not an exaggeration?

Overall that is an excellent article. One of its minor flaws might be that it is arguably an exaggeration to say it acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen (depends on how one defines "like"). However, it is true that we don't yet know what the most common mechanisms of severe disease are (eg. if the heart is damaged, is it because of a cytokine storm or does the virus damage the heart directly?), and that we don't know how to identify which patients are at risk for severe disease in a way that we can act to prevent their deterioration. However, there are general principles of advanced life support that one applies in other situations (heat stroke, heart attack, acute kidney failure), and doctors can use their experience to guess what might work.

I have seen the following (from the article above) directly on the family friend. The virus made him suffer a heart attack and he didn't die from pneumonia but the virus directly damaging the heart.

"In Brescia, Italy, a 53-year-old woman walked into the emergency room of her local hospital with all the classic symptoms of a heart attack, including telltale signs in her electrocardiogram and high levels of a blood marker suggesting damaged cardiac muscles. Further tests showed cardiac swelling and scarring, and a left ventricle—normally the powerhouse chamber of the heart—so weak that it could only pump one-third its normal amount of blood. But when doctors injected dye in the coronary arteries, looking for the blockage that signifies a heart attack, they found none. Another test revealed why: The woman had COVID-19."

Yes, from reports it seems sometimes the heart symptoms even show up before any respiratory symptoms. I'm sorry to hear about your friend.

Is Covid-19 like a transient HIV/AIDS.

I don't think so. Earlier in the thread a paper was mentioned that made some comparison with HIV, but I think the resemblence is superficial since SARS-CoV-2 doesn't seem to replicate in the immune cells.

Edit: Removed video that is copied in @chirhone's reply to an earlier version of this post.

Tomorrow I'll accompany someone to a laboratory for routine medical checkup. I'll be wearing full PPE frontliners use (like 3M half face respirators, medical googles, face shield, etc.). But still nervous.

That should be good. Make sure you wash your hands before putting these things on, and before taking them off, and after taking them off.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Different countries, different approaches to priorities.

First, pretty much nothing that has come out of Mr. Chirhone has been correct.

But I think it's worth remembering that the US is the 3rd largest country in the world. South Carolina is 700 miles away from New York. Farther than London and Milan. Georgia is farther still.

As the data shows us, population density is an important factor. Barnwell County, SC has 40 people per square mile. Manhattan has a daytime population density of 120,000. Does it make sense that the same level of precautions be applied? Think Northern Territory far away from Darwin or Alice Springs (I don't even know what the next largest city in the Northern Territory is. Katherine maybe?)

 

[chirhone]

Overall that is an excellent article. One of its minor flaws might be that it is arguably an exaggeration to say it acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen (depends on how one defines "like"). However, it is true that we don't yet know what the most common mechanisms of severe disease are (eg. if the heart is damaged, is it because of a cytokine storm or does the virus damage the heart directly?), and that we don't know how to identify which patients are at risk for severe disease in a way that we can act to prevent their deterioration. However, there are general principles of advanced life support that one applies in other situations (heat stroke, heart attack, acute kidney failure), and doctors can use their experience to guess what might work.
Yes, from reports it seems sometimes the heart symptoms even show up before any respiratory symptoms. I'm sorry to hear about your friend.
I don't think so. Earlier in the thread a paper was mentioned that made some comparison with HIV, but I think the resemblence is superficial since SARS-CoV-2 doesn't seem to replicate in immune cells. Here is a video summarizing that paper: .
That should be good. Make sure you wash your hands before putting these things on, and before taking them off, and after taking them off.

The elderly I'm accompanying for blood checkup will only wear surgical mask. I think I'll cancel the appointment and let him order another set of this so we both wear this.

I find it easier to breathe than an N95 mask. Do you have any background in this? Have you tried one yourself? Are cartridges in such devices easier to breathe in than the fabric in N95?

I'm serious in the above. Those of you in lockdown who need to go to hospital. These are one of the surest way to avoid getting infected. I won't trust just handkerchief over the mouth.

 

[atyy]

I find it easier to breathe than an N95 mask. Do you have any background in this? Have you tried one yourself? Are cartridges in such devices easier to breathe in than the fabric in N95?

I don't. Maybe @chemisttree ?

BTW, I edited my post above to remove the video that was originally in there, as I'm not sure if everything he says is accurate.

 

[atyy]

But I think it's worth remembering that the US is the 3rd largest country in the world. South Carolina is 700 miles away from New York. Farther than London and Milan. Georgia is farther still.

As the data shows us, population density is an important factor. Barnwell County, SC has 40 people per square mile. Manhattan has a daytime population density of 120,000. Does it make sense that the same level of precautions be applied? Think Northern Territory far away from Darwin or Alice Springs (I don't even know what the next largest city in the Northern Territory is. Katherine maybe?)

I guess the problem in the US is central coordination. For example, suppose Barnwell is sure it has no cases so has no movement restrictions. To prevent new cases entering, it might like to require all visitors to the county to be isolated upon entry. Would that be possible? In other words, could Barnwell treat itself as a country like New Zealand, which has an overall population density close to Barnwell, is now lifting many lockdown-like measures, but is still keeping the requirement that visitors be isolated soon after entry.

 

[hmmm27]

I think I'll cancel the appointment and let him order another set of this so we both wear this.

I think that's socially very irresponsible. And - bluntly - foolish : you may not get a chance at a second appointment.

 

[bhobba]

Does it make sense that the same level of precautions be applied? Think Northern Territory far away from Darwin or Alice Springs (I don't even know what the next largest city in the Northern Territory is. Katherine maybe?)

Neither do I actually. Only 27 in the entire NT last time I looked. The worry is the number of aboriginal communities in the NT. I do not think anybody knows for sure, but it is thought if it got in those communities it could devastate them.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think our international community might be unaware of certain facts about the US.

It's big. Really big. It's the 3rd largest country in the world both in size and population. The distance from one end to the other is about the same as from Taipei to Delhi. Miami is closer to Lima, Peru than it is to Seattle.

Covid has hit three localities particularly hard: New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Somewhere between one-third and one-half of the fatalities have been in the greater NYC metropolitan area, depending on what you call "greater New York".

To get an idea of the disparity in rates, if you compare NYC metro (20M people, and 15-18K fatalities) with the states with the lowest incidence, adding them up until you get 20M people (WY, HI, SD, UT, MT, WV, AK, AR, ND, NE and half of NC) , you get 245 fatalities. So there is a factor of ~60-75 difference across the country.

 

[WWGD]

Pasteur Institute: 5.7% of the French population will have been contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 by May 11 (and only 1.8% in Brittany.)

The study was carried out by modellers from the Institut Pasteur, the CNRS (National Scientific Research Centre) and Inserm (National Health and Medical Research Institute).

According to the study, the statistics are not nearly high enough to prevent a second wave of infection cases spiking following deconfinement.

The models also showed that number of hospitalisation and ICU cases will have dropped significantly in Brittany by 11 May. This is largely due to Brittany population's general adherence to confinement measures that are in place.

https://www.letelegramme.fr/france/...1-mai-selon-une-etude-21-04-2020-12541794.php

I wonder if it would be possible, albeit arguably unethical, to set up a control group to measure the effects of distancing, by letting the protestor crowd set up a colony without confinement, though allotting fewer med resources if things start going down fast.

 

[Bystander]

If they haven't already.

+10