COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[kadiot]

There's hope in the horizon that a vaccine will be developed by the world's scientists at the soonest possible time. There is a race going on at present in the development of the vaccine. So far here are the status of their researches:

1. Moderna Therapeutics (US) Phase 2.
2. BioNTech/Pfizer (Germany&US) Phase 2.
3. Cansino Biologies (China) Phase 2.
4. Oxford Jenner Institute (UK) Phase 1.
5. Flinders Univ. Adelaide (Australia) Phase 1.
6. Wuhan Biological Products (China) Phase 1.
7. Sinovac Beijing (China) Phase 1.

Two other Pharmaceutical companies, Johnson & Johnson (US) and Sanofi (France) were given funding by the US gov't to develop the vaccine but the status of their research is unknown. Phase I is the start of human trial tests. Phase 2 is when the vaccine will be tested to hundreds while Phase 3 will be to thousands of volunteers after which when successful, the vaccine will be manufactured and distributed to the public. If everything is in order, the vaccine will be mass produced early next year! In the meantime, wash our hands, observe social distance and maintain quarantine. At least there is hope in the horizon!

 

[kyphysics]

Global mass starvation: Does this sound hyperbolic or actually plausible?
https://www.thenation.com/article/society/coronavirus-global-food-crisis/

Covid-19’s Third Shock Wave: The Global Food Crisis

In San Antonio, 10,000 families began arriving before dawn on April 9 to receive free boxes of food at a shuttered mall; in a normal week, 200–400 families might show up. In Nairobi, Kenya, thousands of desperately poor people seeking government food aid on April 10 were beaten back by the police, causing multiple injuries. In Dhaka, Bangladesh, thousands of unpaid garment workers defied stay-at-home orders on April 13 to block roads and demand their wages, saying they’d rather risk contagion than go without food. “We are starving,” said one protester. “If we don’t have food in our stomach, what’s the use of observing this lockdown?”

Even as people around the world grapple with the medical and economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, many are also facing yet another great calamity: food scarcity. Either for lack of funds or lack of supply (or both), poor and newly jobless families are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain the food they need. With both economic contraction and joblessness expected to accelerate in the coming months, the number of families facing food insecurity and starvation is bound to soar.

Major world disasters produce multiple ripple effects. Like a powerful tsunami, they trigger one shock wave after another, each producing injury and mayhem. In the case of Covid-19, the first wave was the global health crisis, still spreading around the world. Next came the stay-at-home requirements and the resulting shutdown of the world economy, resulting in massive job layoffs everywhere. These, in turn, are producing a third wave, possibly even more catastrophic in its outcome: the collapse of global food-supply systems and widespread human starvation.

 

[bhobba]

There are numerous legal challenges to the guidelines and emergency powers.

Same in Australia as well. Some claim border closures are unconstitutional and quote the relevant legislation. What these armchair constitutional lawyers forget is the High Court of Australia has the power to interpret the constitution and reconcile it with other laws we have such as the right to life.

Basically Parlement can do what it likes (within reason - eg it can't commit genocide against Tasmanian Aboriginals - whoops - bad example - to our shame we actually did that) until overruled by the High Court. Interestingly we do not have freedom of speech in our constitution, but nobody worried about it until 1990 (I think) when it went before the High Court. The High Court ruled not having freedom of speech is incompatible with democracy which is part of our constitution - it's just interesting it took so long before someone considered it an issue worth getting a ruling on.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

As Germany opens more and more things the estimated reproduction rate went from 0.7 to 1. Still enough to keep the disease at a low level, and with the delay between infections and confirmed cases this means the confirmed cases still go down. If we take 2 weeks between confirmed infection and death we can expect daily deaths to shrink by another factor 2, to ~50, maybe even a bit better. Or 18,000 in a year if it is kept constant. That's still 5 times as many as traffic accidents (with normal traffic). If the reproduction rate is a bit lower that number can go down a lot, if it is higher we'll probably see some restrictions coming back.

Overall I like the German strategy. The result is not as good as in NZ/Australia/Iceland, but Germany isn't an island.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Global mass starvation: Does this sound hyperbolic or actually plausible?

Given those were your words and not the article's, I am going to vote for "hyperbolic".

 

[atyy]

Overall I like the German strategy. The result is not as good as in NZ/Australia/Iceland, but Germany isn't an island.

I like the "no singing in churches" recommendation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-for-religious-services-including-singing-ban

 

[anorlunda]

As Germany opens more and more things the estimated reproduction rate went from 0.7 to 1.

Good for them. It's encouraging to hear success stories. But that level of precision estimating R0(t) sounds hard to believe.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's not so much the precision that I find surprising, it's the speed. A week after the changes are in place one can see this level of change? Contrast that with Sweden where we were told we had to wait more than a month to make any comparison.

 

[mfb]

Good for them. It's encouraging to hear success stories. But that level of precision estimating R0(t) sounds hard to believe.

+- 0.2 or so, the difference has a better estimate than the absolute value. There are many weeks of data to study now, and Germany keeps a high rate of tests.

 

[Swamp Thing]

There is a noticeable periodicity in this record of daily Covid-19 deaths in Sweden. I don't think other nations show that kind of thing. What would be causing this?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

[Dr.AbeNikIanEdL]

There is a noticeable periodicity in this record of daily Covid-19 deaths in Sweden. I don't think other nations show that kind of thing. What would be causing this?

Germany looks similar https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/ ...

I think the usual explanation is that there is e.g. less testing/reporting on weekends etc (or more complicated technical reasons why the reports are clustered without the cases/deaths necessarily being clustered), and those numbers are then reported later in the week. Seems to fit that one cycle is roughly 7 days.

 

[OmCheeto]

I like the "no singing in churches" recommendation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-for-religious-services-including-singing-ban

One of my theories on disparities in infection rates between locales is "how loudly the locals speak".
Having never been to New York City, I can't really say if they talk louder than people in the rest of the world, or if that's just Hollywood.
In any event, if you've missed the profanity laced video titled "Ticked off Vic", then you'll have missed probably the most efficient human nebulizer/atomizer on the planet. He (Vic DiBitetto) could probably put out small fires with the amount of spittle he generates.
I seriously think singing, shouting, talking at Jersey levels, and laughing without face masks should be considered crimes until this is over with.

Of course, there are lots of other variables, also.
I discovered that one possible reason why Sweden and Denmark have different rates is that Copenhagen, the capital and most populous city of Denmark, appears to be the bicycling capital of the world.

 

[gmax137]

I can't really say if they talk louder than people in the rest of the world, or if that's just Hollywood.

That's just Hollywood.

 

[DennisN]

Update on the numbers from Sweden

Two interesting recent news articles in Swedish news:

(1)

FOHM (The Swedish Health Agency) has calculated that the R-number (reproduction number) is now below 1 in Sweden:

Public Health Agency: Sweden's R-number is now below 1.0

Sweden's R-number has been below 1.0 for a week, according to a calculation made by the Public Health Authority. If the trend continues it means the pandemic will gradually ebb.

[...]

(Google translation to English, with some corrections by me)

Source: Folkhälsomyndigheten: Sveriges R-tal nu under 1,0 (DN, May 2 2020, Swedish only)

(2)

A short interview with Anders Wallensten from FOHM (The Swedish Health Agency) regarding the high number of deaths in nursing homes in Sweden:

Folkhälsomyndigheten (FOHM) investigates high death rates

Sweden's high death toll due to Covid-19 is significant in comparison with our Nordic neighboring countries. An important explanation is that the infection came into the country's nursing homes early, says Anders Wallensten from FOHM.

According to the latest public health statistics, a total of 2,679 people have died due to Covid-19 in Sweden. This is more than three times more compared to our Nordic neighbors - in total - and the figure will certainly be adjusted upwards when the weekend's backlog in reporting has been entered.

According to Sweden's Deputy State Epidemiologist Anders Wallensten, the main reason for this big difference is that the infection entered our nursing homes. Dagens Nyheter has produced data from the country's regions that show that at least 541 nursing homes have been affected.

- It is highly unfortunate that there has been such a large spread of infection there. We are investigating what has failed, what can be done better and in what way more support is needed, in order to improve this, says Wallensten.

TT: What is the spread of infection at the country's nursing homes at the moment?

- I don't have the current number. But it has been very large and it has not changed overnight. Unfortunately, it is true that once you have got the infection, it is difficult to manage in a nursing home. Great efforts are needed to ensure that no more people become infected, says Anders Wallensten.

TT: Whose responsibility is it that the infection has entered the nursing homes?

- It is surely a shared responsibility between everyone involved with the elderly. After all, there are many principals who work with elderly care and it is important that routines are working, but I cannot comment on whose responsibility it is specifically, says Anders Wallensten.

TT: Does the Public Health Agency have any responsibility for not having provided sufficiently clear guidelines?

- The Public Health Agency does not manage elderly care. Basically, it is about issues that always should be in place, even when it is not a pandemic, such as basic hygiene routines etc.

TT: Who should have been aware of shortcomings in basic hygiene practices?

- Well, it is the business owner who should have that competence. But as I said, it is too early to say exactly what has not worked out. We are going through it now and will report more during the week, says Anders Wallensten.

(Google translation to English, with some corrections by me)

Source: http://www.sydsvenskan.se/2020-05-03/folkhalsomyndigheten-granskar-hoga-dodstal (SDS, May 3 2020, Swedish only)

 

[Vanadium 50]

Yeah, nursing homes are important. I looked at the Massachusetts data, and the average age of a Covid-19 fatality is 82. 98.4% had identified underlying conditions, and 60% were in nursing homes.

I played around with a simple model, just at the Excel level. The idea is you have a large population A with a small probability of death, and a small population B, with a large probability of deaths. Instead of R's, I worked with probabilities: p_AA is the probability someone in group A is infected by someone else in group A, p_AB is the probability probability someone in group B is infected by someone in group A and so on. In this model, overall R varies depending on the relative sizes of group A and group B even for the same probabilities, and of course it depends on the p's.

The most important is p_BB, and the next most important is the product p_AA p_BA. p_AA by itself has less of an impact.

 

[mfb]

It's not so much the precision that I find surprising, it's the speed. A week after the changes are in place one can see this level of change? Contrast that with Sweden where we were told we had to wait more than a month to make any comparison.

It was an estimate, not a precise measurement. Clearly they vary quite a bit depending on the methods and so on.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/germanys-coronavirus-infection-rate-has-edged-up.html

 

[nsaspook]

Let's hope the trend in Sweden continues as a possible way to a responsible exit strategy . The daily death rate and COVID-19 case increases are dropping. Unfortunately, "flatten the curve" IMO has morphed into "stop the virus", which is unattainable and has no realistic exit strategy other than wait to next year at the absolute earliest for a vaccine.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

[Swamp Thing]

Germany looks similar https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/ ...

I think the usual explanation is that there is e.g. less testing/reporting on weekends etc (or more complicated technical reasons why the reports are clustered without the cases/deaths necessarily being clustered), and those numbers are then reported later in the week. Seems to fit that one cycle is roughly 7 days.

I was initially convinced by this, but now I'm not too sure.

It would certainly explain periodicity in the number of new cases each day, if each test outcome is date-stamped with the day on which the test was processed. But in the case of deaths, each data point would be date-stamped with the day on which it actually took place (presumably). So when you plot the daily deaths, it would reflect the actual number of patients who died on a particular day, irrespective of variations in processing throughput.

Perhaps it is the effect of some real phenomenon like less staff being available in nursing homes over weekends (Someone has pointed out on this thread that a large percentage of deaths involves patients who were already receiving care in nursing homes).

 

[russ_watters]

I was initially convinced by this, but now I'm not too sure.

It would certainly explain periodicity in the number of new cases each day, if each test outcome is date-stamped with the day on which the test was processed. But in the case of deaths, each data point would be date-stamped with the day on which it actually took place (presumably). So when you plot the daily deaths, it would reflect the actual number of patients who died on a particular day, irrespective of variations in processing throughput.

I don't think that's likely as it would require retroactive edits to the data instead of just reporting a new number each day, and that would take a lot of work. What the data (on positive tests and deaths) tells us is as of that day, X many are known to have happened.

 

[Swamp Thing]

Perhaps it is the effect of some real phenomenon

Or maybe it's a complex phenomenon, as in, the probability of succumbing is the square of a complex number.

Please excuse the quantum graveyard humor.

 

[Swamp Thing]

it would require retroactive edits to the data

All it would take is that properly date-stamped data should propagate from hospital to area to town to region to country. Once that happens, the graph would just be based on a query off a database and would be free from processing artefacts.

 

[Dr.AbeNikIanEdL]

It would certainly explain periodicity in the number of new cases each day, if each test outcome is date-stamped with the day on which the test was processed. But in the case of deaths, each data point would be date-stamped with the day on which it actually took place (presumably).

That would certainly make sense, however:

(1) I don't see any indication that is what they do. As far as I can tell the number for each day is frozen at 0:00 GMT. Exceptions are usually explicitly mentioned in the Updates section. At least for Germany, the source is just a newspaper quoting the total number of deaths, presumably the new deaths every day is just the difference to the last day.

(2) It is not clear to me (again in particular for Germany) that such numbers would be officially reported anyway. I see (understandably) a great deal of trying to estimate when people actually got sick. For deaths however only the total number, and differences to the previous day.

(3) Look e.g. at China, they corrected the number of deaths on April 17 by a significant amount. Presumably no one of those was actually declared dead on April 17, yet the graph shows over 1200 new deaths on that day.

 

[russ_watters]

All it would take is that properly date-stamped data should propagate from hospital to area to town to region to country. Once that happens, the graph would just be based on a query off a database and would be free from processing artefacts.

I understand it could be done, but I'm pretty sure it isn't being done, which is what your question was about. Heck, even if the data was collected that way, it still wouldn't change the way it is primarily reported. That just isn't what the reported data is for.

 

[Vanadium 50]

These people: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07208 say the 7 day effect is real.

I'm not agreeing with them, just saying that's their claim. It's certainly not impossible for this behavior to occur in other systems: e.g. pogo oscillations.

 

[DennisN]

Coronavirus: UK hospital trials new treatment drug (BBC, 4 May 2020)

A new drug developed by UK scientists to treat Covid-19 patients is being trialled at University Hospital Southampton.

Developed by UK bio-tech company Synairgen, it uses a protein called interferon beta, which our bodies produce when we get a viral infection.

Initial results from the trial are expected by the end of June.

[...]

Interferon beta is part of the body's first line of defence against viruses, warning it to expect a viral attack, explains Richard Marsden, chief executive of Southampton-based Synairgen.

He says the Coronavirus seems to suppress its production as part of its strategy to evade our immune systems.

The drug is a special formulation of interferon beta delivered directly to the airways when the virus is there, with the hope that a direct dose of the protein will trigger a stronger anti-viral response even in patients whose immune systems are already weak.

[...]

Synairgen's drug trial is the template for a new fast-track clinical scheme that has just been set up by the government.

The Accord programme, as it is known, is designed to accelerate the development of new drugs for patients with Covid-19.

The first phase of the programme involves six other drugs.

[...]

 

[Ygggdrasil]

There is a noticeable periodicity in this record of daily Covid-19 deaths in Sweden. I don't think other nations show that kind of thing. What would be causing this?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
View attachment 261996

In the data from Sweden, the 7 day periodicity is almost certainly due to reporting. In a previous post, I noted differences in the daily deaths data from different sources:

Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), show the periodicity in deaths while data from the Public Health Agency of Sweden (FOHM) do not. It looks like the FOHM data attribute the death counts to the dates the individuals died (with a lag time of ~1-2 weeks for reporting) reflecting the actual number of deaths per day while the ECDC just scrapes the daily death count totals and reflects the number of new deaths reported per day.

It seems like the worldometers site uses the ECDC (or similar) source for their data while sites like Wikipedia use the FOHM data.

 

[Vanadium 50]

regarding the high number of deaths in nursing homes

I mentioned the Massachusetts numbers. I looked at them again and, wow. Massachusetts has about 38000 nursing home residents. They have about 2400 deaths in nursing homes, and looks like they are about 2/3 of the way through the pandemic. Plug in a 10% CFR for people that age, and you get about 36000 cases: pretty much everyone who could get infected did.

 

[kyphysics]

CDC says:

If you develop any of these emergency warning signs for COVID-19, get emergency medical attention immediately:
Trouble breathing
Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
New confusion or inability to arouse
Bluish lips or face

This is a dumb question, but what do they mean by "arouse" there? Is that a way of saying standing up or rising? Or, is it something else?

 

[kyphysics]

As Germany opens more and more things the estimated reproduction rate went from 0.7 to 1. Still enough to keep the disease at a low level, and with the delay between infections and confirmed cases this means the confirmed cases still go down. If we take 2 weeks between confirmed infection and death we can expect daily deaths to shrink by another factor 2, to ~50, maybe even a bit better. Or 18,000 in a year if it is kept constant. That's still 5 times as many as traffic accidents (with normal traffic). If the reproduction rate is a bit lower that number can go down a lot, if it is higher we'll probably see some restrictions coming back.

Overall I like the German strategy. The result is not as good as in NZ/Australia/Iceland, but Germany isn't an island.

R0 of 1 means their growth rate becomes exponential. You have to have an R0 of below one (and sustain that!) to stop growing cases over time.

I am actually disturbed by Germany's spike in new cases, as they are back to exponential growth!

 

[DrGreg]

CDC says:This is a dumb question, but what do they mean by "arouse" there? Is that a way of saying standing up or rising? Or, is it something else?

I would assume "arouse" means "be woken up", i.e. gain conciousness. That's something for someone else in your house to observe rather than yourself.