Did 1966 Predictions About 2000 Come True?

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Forecasters have struggled to provide viable solutions for future traffic issues, with some suggesting automated and underground highways. Predictions include the obsolescence of traditional transport methods, replaced by hovercraft and ballistic rockets capable of global travel in 40 minutes. By 2000, the U.S. population was expected to reach 330 million, predominantly living in supercities, while decentralization of cities and workplaces due to instant communication was anticipated. The discussion reflects on the unrealistic optimism of past predictions, highlighting a shift in focus from transportation to communication technologies. The need for significant energy resources for advanced transportation methods raises concerns, although advancements in solar energy may change this landscape. The conversation also critiques the accuracy of past technological forecasts, noting some successes like kitchen robots and cochlear implants, while recognizing the limitations and societal challenges faced by those with disabilities. Overall, the dialogue emphasizes the importance of managing expectations regarding technological advancements and the choices humanity must make for its future.
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...None of the forecasters seem to have any good solution for the traffic problem, though they count on automated, and possibly underground, highways. McLuhan and others predict that both the wheel and the highway will be obsolete, giving way to hovercraft that ride on air. Planes carrying 1,000 passengers and flying just under the speed of sound will of course be old hat. The new thing will be transport by ballistic rocket, capable of reaching any place on Earth in 40 minutes. In Rand's Delphi study, 82 scientists agreed that a permanent lunar base will have been established long before A.D. 2000 and that men will have flown past Venus and landed on Mars... [continued]
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,835128-1,00.html
 
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They should have kept there predictions more modest, as in we would have the capability to . . . . .
 
"The new thing will be transport by ballistic rocket, capable of reaching any place on Earth in 40 minutes."

Hmmm, I have a feeling that would not be a pleasant flight :-/
 
Then again, was the ubiquity of an internet and the development of related technology predicted? We seem to have focused on communication rather than transportation, is all.
 
The article is six pages long...

By A.D. 2000, the U.S. population will have risen to about 330 million, and nine out of ten Americans will be living in supercities or their suburbs. But cities, like industry, will tend to decentralize; with instant communications, it will no longer be necessary for business enterprises to cluster together. Futurist Marshall McLuhan even foresees the possibility that many people will stay at home, doing their work via countrywide telecommunication.

I find this sort of retrospective useful for fine tuning expectations. And I especially liked the concluding comment.

The chief message of the futurists is that man is not trapped in an absurd fate but that he can and must choose his destiny—a technological reassertion of free will.

A journey of a thousand miles begins not with a single step, but with a map.
 
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I think it all comes down to http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld020.htm" . Building self-driving cars, ballistic rocket transportation etc. is going to require HUGE amounts of energy for EVERYBODY & frankly, it just isn't there. Perhaps this will change as solar's becoming competitive with the local power companies, but I don't know.
 
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Thrice said:
I think it all comes down to http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld020.htm" . Building self-driving cars, ballistic rocket transportation etc. is going to require HUGE amounts of energy for EVERYBODY & frankly, it just isn't there. Perhaps this will change as solar's becoming competitive with the local power companies, but I don't know.


I think that slight drop in per capita energy use came about when the government finally mandated more efficient automobiles, appliances, and air conditioners.
 
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Well, they were bang on with the anticipation of our kitchen robots preparing our food! But one little correct prediction in a huge morass of wishful thinking (an implated device "that will let the deaf hear"--come on!), well that is statistically inevitable .
 
Chi Meson said:
Well, they were bang on with the anticipation of our kitchen robots preparing our food! But one little correct prediction in a huge morass of wishful thinking (an implated device "that will let the deaf hear"--come on!), well that is statistically inevitable.
I think there was unbridled or irrational exuberance with what science and technology could achieve in the 1950's and 1960's. That was after WWII, which saw dramatic advances in electronics (radar, TV, . . . ), computers, communications, nuclear energy, and the space race. With those achievements, anything seemed possible. But then I used a slide rule through 1975.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slide_rule
http://www.hpmuseum.org/sliderul.htm
http://www.sliderule.ca/

As for a device to allow the deaf to hear, it depends on where the fault lies. One of my nephews lost hearing at age 2 due to meningitis. He can partially hear with a cochlea implant, but he has experienced a learning deficit, partly because the educational system is genearlly not structured appropriately for children with his condition, and he is shunned by the deaf community since his parents made the decision to try to restore some of his hearing.
 
  • #10
Ironic sarcasm goes "plunk." Again!

We do NOT have robotic arms preparing our meals and doing kitchen work, yet we DO have the ear implants. My examples of correct and incorrect predictions were reversed. IT's FUNNY! (keep up with me people, I work quickly)

Where is the "sardonic smiley"?
 
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