Vanadium 50 said:
I don't think this is the case, and I think again, your bitterness is getting the best of you.
If you increased the number of permanent faculty positions by factors of five, then the scientific system would not come crashing down. My point is that the limiting factor in post-doc has nothing to do with the need to provide extra training to post-docs and everything to do with the lack of permanent positions. If you had the permanent positions available, then you'd have roughly the same science output.
Also I should define what I mean by "enough" positions. If humanity decided to spend $1 trillion to establish colonies on Io, I think the number of physics positions would increase by factors of 20.
First, there were very few times when one often went straight into faculty positions - one was at the end of WW2 when colleges were expanding explosively, and the other was the post-Sputnik boom. It's odd how people think those two periods were somehow normal and the rest of the time was somehow an aberration.
There's a good reason for this. Most people that got into the system, got in when there is a boom. If there is a bust, then people don't get into the system. Also the post-war period and the Sputnik period was when a lot of the infrastructure of science was designed.
In any case, the point is that during those two periods, the quality of science didn't decline, and in fact, one could argue that the quality of science increased during these periods of rapid hiring. The other thing is that even though the periods are brief, they have a lot of impact in the form of historical mythology.
Also, one statement that I am making is that the way things worked in the 1960's, is the way things *should* work. Personally, I think that we should make a global decision to colonize the solar system, and if this happened, then I don't think there would be a lack of permanent positions for astrophysicists. After seeing the sorry mess that is NASA, what I'd like to do is to try to convince the President of China to give a "we're going to Mars" speech.
It would predict that if I look at fields where there are enough permanent positions, I would find no postdoc level positions. Consider medicine, where the number of MDs produced is at or even below the number of positions for licensed physicians. Nonetheless, internships are mandatory and residencies are common. Conversely, it would predict that if I look at fields where there is even more of a shortage of permanent positions, like philosophy, I would find more and longer postdocs. But while philosophy postdocs do exist, they are far from as common as they are in the sciences.
That's two data points. You can add lawyers and MBA's both of which make it in without internships, and finance where you don't have many postdocs. However, in all of these cases, the thing that determines whether you have postdocs or not is economic necessity, and not "quality" issues.
The example of physics I think illustrates my point. In the cause of physics, you are keeping the institutional structure fixed, and then the independent variable is the number of permanent positions, and it seems to me that the presence or absence of post-doc depends pretty heavily on whether the permanent positions are available.