- #1

BWV

- 1,492

- 1,806

A) your initial chance of picking the correct door is 1/3

B) the odds are 2/3 one of the other doors has the car

should then not matter if the host deliberately or accidentally opens a door with a goat (other than if the possibility f accidentally revealing a car if the host has no knowledge or opens the door by accident)

another equivalent scenario - the host does not open a door but allows a switch after the initial choice and you see a goat tail under one of the two doors you did not pick. Probability still holds - the odds were 1/3 your initial choice was right. If you then can switch to one of the two remaining doors and know one of those has a goat, then your odds of a win by switching are 2/3