Exponential probability density

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around a probability problem involving exponential probability density functions related to the lifetimes of light bulbs in lamps. The original poster presents two parts to the problem: calculating the probability that both bulbs in one lamp fail within a specified time and determining the probability for a single bulb that is replaced after failure.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Assumption checking, Problem interpretation

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to derive the probability density function for the bulbs and considers integrating to find the probability that both bulbs fail within a certain time frame. Some participants question the approach of summing the lifetimes of the bulbs and suggest that the events should be treated independently.

Discussion Status

The discussion is ongoing, with participants providing feedback on the original poster's reasoning and questioning the interpretation of the problem. There is no explicit consensus on the correct approach yet, but some guidance has been offered regarding the independence of events.

Contextual Notes

Participants note the lack of clarity regarding whether the bulbs are independent and the specific part of the problem being addressed. The original poster expresses uncertainty about their understanding of probability density functions.

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Homework Statement



a.) A lamp has two bulbs of a type with an average lifetime of 1000 hours. Assuming that we can model the probability of failure of these bulbs by an exponential density function with mean u = 1000, find the probability that both of the lamp's bulbs fail within 1000 hours.
b.) Another lamp has just one bulb of the same type as in part (a). If one bulb burns out and is replaced by a bulb of the same type, find the probability that the two bulbs fail within a total of 1000 hours.

Homework Equations



Exponential density function: f(t) = { 0 if t < 0
u-1e-t/u if t ≥ 0}

The Attempt at a Solution



Plugging 1000 in for u, I got f(t) = { 0 if t < 0
1000-1e-t/1000 if t ≥ 0}

My guess is that I need to say that the function I got is the function for both light bulb #1 (I'll call it X) and light bulb #2 (I'll call it Y). Therefore, I am assuming I need to multiply these two functions X and Y together and then find when P(X+Y ≤ 1000). Therefore I would integrate the function where x goes from 0 to 1000 and y goes from 0 to 1000 - x.

Am I right in my steps cause I am really not sure if I completely understand probability density...?

Thanks.
 
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Can anyone tell me if my steps are right?
 
You could have each bulb fail at 900 hours so X+Y = 1800. So X + Y < 1000 isn't what you are wanting.
 
So would it be X + Y < 2000 then? So my bounds would be from 0 to 2000 - x and 0 to 2000?
 
No. Why are you thinking about X + Y in the first place? The question isn't about a sum. You have two events, presumably independent although you didn't say so, that must both happen.
 
I am thinking about X + Y cause I have no idea how to approach this problem so I was just copying the other example of an exponential density function in my book.
 
Which part are you trying to solve, a or b?
 
vela said:
Which part are you trying to solve, a or b?

Good question; I'm assuming (a). :smile:
 

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