Finding the conditional distribution

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To find the conditional distribution u|Y, the user starts with the joint distribution f(u, y) and applies Bayes' theorem. They express f(u|y) in terms of the likelihood p(y|u), the prior f(u), and the marginal p(y). The user has identified the relevant distributions: Y follows a Negative Binomial distribution, and u follows a Gamma distribution. They seek guidance on simplifying the expression and determining the resulting distribution after canceling terms. Further assistance is requested to clarify the next steps in the calculation.
Bazzinga
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Hey guys, I'm trying to find a conditional distribution based on the following information:

##Y|u Poisson(u \lambda)##, where ##u~Gamma( \phi)## and ##Y~NegBinomial(\frac{\lambda \phi}{1+ \lambda \phi}, \phi^{-1})##

I want to find the conditional distribution ##u|Y##

Here's what I've got so far:

##f(u|y)= \frac{f(u, y)}{p(y)} = \frac{p(y|u)}{p(y)} f(u)##
##=\frac{(u \lambda)^{y}e^{-u \lambda}}{y!} \frac{u^{ \alpha - 1}e^{-u/ \beta}}{ \Gamma ( \alpha) \beta^{ \alpha}} \frac{y! \Gamma ( \alpha)}{\Gamma (y+ \alpha)} ( \frac{1+\lambda \beta}{ \lambda \beta})^{y} (1+ \lambda \beta)^{ \alpha}##

where ##\beta = \phi## and ## \alpha = \phi^{-1}##
(I'm using ##\beta## and ##\alpha## right now because that's what it does in the notes)

I'm not sure where to go from here. I can cancel some terms out, but then I'm not sure what distribution I'm supposed to end up with. Could anyone give me a push in the right direction?
 
Bazzinga said:
I can cancel some terms out
Then please do so and post what you get.
 
Question: A clock's minute hand has length 4 and its hour hand has length 3. What is the distance between the tips at the moment when it is increasing most rapidly?(Putnam Exam Question) Answer: Making assumption that both the hands moves at constant angular velocities, the answer is ## \sqrt{7} .## But don't you think this assumption is somewhat doubtful and wrong?

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