opening post:pattylou said:…While failing to mention that 70% of glaciers are melting. Only 30% are growing. And that this is why it is called climate *change* these days.
????andre said:yes, most glaciers are receding currently (…) Some glaciers are advancing though. It’s about a 70-30 ratio. Glacial behavior in the current epoch of the Holocene (as of 10,000 14C BP or 11,600 Cal BP) has been scrutinized.
You continue with that model thinghy. What’s the problem with prediction models?pattylou said:And failing to mention that the MWP has been incorporated into some versions of some models and doesn't change the general trend of the predictions.
The only place of prediction models in the scientific method is in formulating predictions to test the robustness of a hypothesis. So far the models of the mid-nineties have predicted a warming of several tenths of degrees for 2005. In reality temperatures have never reached the 1998 peak again, so it seems way too early to trust models.
To underline that why not google with climate models fail.
The main reason of the problems is “garbage-in-garbage-out”. The “garbage” being the exaggeration of the CO2 forcing and non existing positive feedback whilst underestimating the negative feedback in the models, as I have linked earlier to Hans Erren and Olavi Kärner respectively.
And perhaps remember that the positive feedback myth is caused by misperceptions of the ice core proxies about the ice ages.
About correlation of warming and the glaciers growing and shrinking. It seems to be much more erratic. In the Andes and the Rockies several adjacent glaciers behave differently.