How Close Can You Get to 80% of the Average Guess?

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The discussion revolves around a guessing game where players select an integer between 0 and 100, aiming to be closest to 80% of the average of all guesses. Players are encouraged to send their guesses via private message rather than posting publicly. The game runs for about a day, and participants express curiosity about whether players will choose rational numbers or random guesses. After the first round, the average was calculated, and the winner was announced as "mattmns" with a guess of 23. The second round saw a different average, and "franznietzsche" won with a guess of 26. Participants noted the unpredictability of others' guesses and discussed potential changes for future rounds, including using a random percentage instead of a fixed 80%. The conversation highlights the strategic thinking involved in guessing and the dynamics of player behavior.
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Ok here are the rules:
Guess a number (integer) between 0 and 100. The number closest to 80% of the average of all the numbers guessed by the players wins :biggrin:.

Example:
Say the numbers I got are: 10, 50, 60, 80, and 25. The average is 45 and 80% of the average is 36 so 25 would win since it's the closest to 36.

The game will keep running for about 1 day depending on how many numbers I get. Please don't post numbers as replies, just send me a PM with your number.
 
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Physics news on Phys.org
15?

<limit>
 
You're not even close, cyrus.
I'm winning this.
 
heartless said:
very similar topic was here,
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=116159

True, but we're actually playing the game here! :biggrin:

Are you going to go with the most rational answer? Are people going to play rationally? Will anyone guess any crazy numbers like 100?

So many questions :wink:
 
I will be nice and go last. Everybody just post your numbers :smile:
 
mattmns said:
I will be nice and go last. Everybody just post your numbers :smile:

Everyone will post the numbers they want you to see so you take 80% of the average and decide on a number that will skew the average in their favor!
 
you of course mean random numbers? or no?
 
You can guess random numbers if you want, but if you want to win you should try to randomly guess a number that's as close to 80% of the average of all the numbers as possible :wink:.
 
  • #10
do we have any numbers so far? If no, I rather wait. I like to be last in doing things,
 
  • #11
I already opted to go last, so feel free to post your number :biggrin:
 
  • #12
I got 5 numbers so far.
 
  • #13
Physics_wiz said:
I got 5 numbers so far.

And mine is going to win :-p

~H
 
  • #14
I've just sent my magic number.

mattmns said:
I already opted to go last, so feel free to post your number :biggrin:

OK, feel free to go last, certainly you'll benefit :-p
(at first, I didn't notice that we have to pm physisc_wiz)
 
  • #15
Any last guesses before I post the results? I only got 9 numbers so far.
 
  • #16
49 .
 
  • #17
Post Results! Post Results!
 
  • #18
Post 'em :smile:
 
  • #19
Ok here are the numbers I got:
10
40
17
29
50
23
32
32
37

The average was 30 and 80% of the average = 24.

mattmns won with his guess of 23, congratulations :biggrin:.

If you want to tell us how you rationalized your number, go right ahead. We can also play another round if people are interested. It'll be interesting to see how the results of this round affect the next round.
 
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  • #20
Uh, I was so close... :)
Congratatulalations Mattmns!
 
  • #21
Sweet! What do I win? :biggrin:

I made the guess thinking there would be a lot of people guessing low, and then some people guessing higher (40+), so I figured 23 seemed reasonable. However, it seems like I was wrong, but still won :smile:
 
  • #22
mattmns said:
Sweet! What do I win? :biggrin:
You win the respect of fellow PF'ers :approve:

So, another round?
 
  • #23
Sweet, I got second place! (29)
 
  • #24
Physics_wiz said:
You win the respect of fellow PF'ers :approve:

So, another round?

Sure, but 80% won't work the same way again. How about an unknown n% and you don't tell us what the percent is until everyone submits his or her number.
Then, a winner becomes random :)
 
  • #25
heartless said:
Sure, but 80% won't work the same way again. How about an unknown n% and you don't tell us what the percent is until everyone submits his or her number.
Then, a winner becomes random :)

sweet! I got a yes. Ok another round. Same rules. The most interesting thing about this game is to see how the results change with the same rules and previous results posted! :biggrin:

Don't forget to PM me the number, don't post it as a reply please.
 
  • #26
wait, wait, wait for me,
Let's add one more thing, how about a RNG, generating a random rational percent between 0 and 100? Then Physics_wiz can't be bribed by mattmns again :biggrin:
 
  • #27
Yep, I cheated! Did you see that thread about the most common passwords? Well, Physics_wiz's password for PF is 'password' :smile:

I am for another round :approve:

This time let's make it interesting :biggrin:
 
  • #28
I'm taking numbers with PMs until tomorrow. Send your numbers!
 
  • #29
Results

Here are the numbers I got for the second round:
38
15
26
73
42

The average was 38.8, 80% of the average = 31.04

franznietzsche won with his guess of 26, congratulations :biggrin:

I have to say that I'm surprised the average moved up instead of down, but this could just mean that the number of players wasn't enough or the rules weren't very clear. Anyways, no more rounds...thanks for participating though :biggrin:.
 
  • #30
Yeah I thought everyone would go about 10 lower or so, so I went 8 lower than my previous number and chose 15. I was way off, you guys aren't that predictable :smile:

Congrats Franz!
 
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  • #31
Physics_wiz said:
Here are the numbers I got for the second round:
38
15
26
73
42

The average was 38.8, 80% of the average = 31.04

franznietzsche won with his guess of 26, congratulations :biggrin:

I have to say that I'm surprised the average moved up instead of down, but this could just mean that the number of players wasn't enough or the rules weren't very clear. Anyways, no more rounds...thanks for participating though :biggrin:.

I knew it would go up :approve: . Just didn't think that much.
 
  • #32
bah! i vastly underestimated the number of participants :(
 
  • #33
Oh, Physics_Wiz, we said that the percentage was to be chosen at random and that I was to going win that game. Give me back the $20!
 

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