phinds said:
BUT ... if it WERE zero, he would not exist and he DOES exist, so in this universe, it is NOT zero. In fact, in this universe, the probability of his existing is one.
Your argument about the numbers seems nonsensical but it could be that I'm just not following what you mean.
The satement "with probability zero ... the natural numbers ... exist" is what seems nonsensical. In a system where the probability of something existing is zero, it will NOT exist and if it does exist, then the probablity of it existing is one. I doubt you would argue with that, so what exactly ARE you arguing?
It has to do with measure theory, which is the basis of modern axiomatic probability theory. Measure theory was created to deal with infinite sets. You start out with your measure space, which is the set of all possible events, and has measure one. Then assign nonnegative measures to the subsets. The measure of a subset is equal to the probability that an event chosen from the measure space will be a member of the subset.
If the measure space is infinite then often the probability of every event is zero. Think of choosing one of the natural numbers with each number equally likely (something you can't actually do in real life.) The probability you will chose the natural number n is zero for every natural number. So if you could choose one natural number n, then even though the probability is zero nevertheless you have that number. You have proved that it was not impossible for you to chose that number. So "impossible" and "probability zero" are NOT the same thing.
Probability zero means that the probability is less than any positive number. Only zero remains. But it IS possible. (It would be silly to clutter the measure space with impossible events. What would be the point?)
Let's say you have the real numbers on the interval [0,1] and you imagine you can choose one of those real numbers with all numbers equally likely. The probability you will choose 0 is zero. But it's not impossible.
On the other hand, of you somehow DO choose zero then the conditional probability that you chose zero is 1. The conditional probability of X given X is always one. The conditional probability the Brian Greene exists given that Brian Greene exists is one.
If Brian Green were in a finite Universe then his assertion that the probability that he exists is greater than zero seems reasonable. You could theoretically count the number of planets n and then say that the chance that Greene exists is 1/n. That's more than zero. But in an infinite Universe I don't accept it. The conditional probability that Brian Greene exists given that Brian Greene exists is one, so this gives us no information other than that it is not impossible for him to exist. But as you have seen, this tells us nothing about his probability. In an infinite universe it is perfectly OK for him to have probability zero.
So now that you supposedly have gotten used to this definition, I can also say that in an infinite Universe I expect the probability that the Earth exists is zero, the probability that the visible Universe exists is zero, etc. One would expect that the bigger and more complicated something is, the lower the probability.
Now let's confuse things further. If you have an infinite set with all events equally likely, then ANY finite subset has probability zero. So even if a jillion Brian Greenes exist in an infinite Universe, his probability is STILL zero. Compared with infinity, it's insignificant. If you got in your incredible spaceship and toured a million worlds a second, the probability that you would find an alien Brian Greenes would be zero. A jillion divided by infinity is still zero.
Now to really put the zap on your mind, there are plenty of infinite sets with probability zero. The prime numbers are a good example. If you pick a natural number with each such number equally likely then the chance it is prime is zero. Suppose a Brian Greene is on every prime numbered world. So if you got in your incredible spaceship and toured a trillion million worlds a second for a billion years, the probability that you would find one of that infinite set of alien Brian Greenes would STILL be zero. That's how big infinity is.
Think about it for a while. Get used to it. You will realize that this has to be true, otherwise the measure of your measure space becomes infinite instead of one. And that simply will not do. Probabilities are ALWAYS 0 through 1. That's the norm.