How Does Shooter Accuracy Affect Probability of Hitting a Target?

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the probability density function for a rifle shooter's accuracy, defined by the angle error density function ρ(φ) = 1/(2Φ) for φ in (-Φ, Φ). The participants derive the probability density for where the bullet strikes the target, denoted as 𝑝(𝑥) = 1/π * (D/(D²+x²)), and confirm that 𝜏(𝑥) = 2Φ/π is the correct expression for the probability density function. Key variables include D (distance to the target), d (radius of the target), and θ (angle of error). The conversation emphasizes the importance of correctly interpreting the relationships between these variables.

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  • #31
Looks right to me.
So now, what about P(H;Φ)? Hint: there's an easier way than using p(x).
 
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  • #32
is it 1 when, theta is greater than Phi?
 
  • #33
is it 1 when, theta is greater than Phi?
... when the target area is bigger than the spread of the bullets? Well... yes. That would be part of the answer.

You are thinking along the right lines though...
How about when ##\theta < \Phi##?
How would you determine the probability that ##\phi## is inside a certain angle?
 

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