How Does the IPCC Determine Confidence Levels in Climate Projections?

[random23]

Would someone please be able to point me towards the literature that discusses how the IPCC calculate the low, medium and high confidence projections as used in their fifth assessment report? Thanks.

 

[hank]

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf

 

[Huyen401]

Sure, I can help with that! The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) uses a range of methods to determine the level of confidence in their projections. This includes a thorough review of the available scientific literature, expert judgment from a diverse range of scientists, and statistical analysis.

One key document to consult would be the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), specifically the Working Group I report on the Physical Science Basis. Chapter 12, titled "Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility," discusses the methods and approaches used by the IPCC to assess confidence in their projections.

Additionally, the IPCC has published a Technical Summary, which provides a more detailed explanation of the methods and data used in their projections. This can be found on the IPCC website along with the full AR5 report.

Other helpful resources include the IPCC's Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties and the IPCC's Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Assessing the Robustness of Climate Projections.

I hope this helps point you in the right direction! Let me know if you have any other questions.