How Successful are US Treasury Auctions

  • Thread starter Thread starter John Creighto
  • Start date Start date
AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on concerns regarding the U.S. Treasury bond auctions, which are perceived as increasingly problematic despite reports of success. The volume of auctions has surged, resembling what was previously a month's worth of activity condensed into a few weeks. This raises alarms about the sustainability of funding U.S. government deficits. Two key issues are highlighted: first, the use of USDollar Swap Facilities allows the Treasury to indirectly support foreign central banks in purchasing U.S. Treasuries, which could mask the true demand and lead to auction failures without this support. Second, the reported bid-to-cover ratio, which appears favorable at 1.92, is misleading since it includes mandatory bids from primary dealers, suggesting that actual demand from outside these dealers is only 0.92. This situation indicates a troubling trend of hidden monetization of U.S. Treasuries and potential erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
John Creighto
Messages
487
Reaction score
2
I came across the following quote:
The USTreasury auctions continue to proceed successfully, and thus finance the USGovt deficits through bond issuance. The auctions have continued, but their schedule is very frightening since the volume for given days and weeks equals what was once volume for an entire month one year ago. The press networks tell of successful funding for the bonds, even though additional needs are required to keep the stock market afloat. Two deceptions here occur. First, by means of USDollar Swap Facilities, the USDept Treasury is handing money to friendly foreign central banks in order to purchase USTreasurys in hidden or custodial accounts, all indirect bidders. Without them, the auctions would fail miserably. Second, the bid-to-cover ratio is reported in a manner that includes the official primary bond dealers. They, however, are obligated to bid on all auctions. So the 1.92 bid/cover seen last week was an actual failure, since only 92% of bids occurred outside the primary dealers who hustle to unload their inventory. More double counting comes, now that Toronto Dominion and Royal Bank (both of Canada) as well as Nomura (of Japan) join the primary bond dealer ranks. This road leads to staggering hidden monetization of USTreasurys and outright auction failures, BOTH, with severe damage done to the USDollar confidence and reputation.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12573.html

Not sure how accurate it is or exactly what everything means in the quote but I wouldn't mind hearing some opinions on it.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
I'll give it a go but let me say firstly I'm just doing it so that hopefully someone corrects me and I learn from it rather than any real understanding.

Essentially what it says is that while at first glance auctions of bonds seem to be going succesfully it not really true. Auctions actually aren't going to well hence the need to schedule them more frequently than usual. One might point out that the bid/cover ratio is quite good at 1.92 but in fact its only 0.92 since inevitably the first bid is placed by the bank itself through a proxy.
 
In words that I can understand: Less and less successful each day...
 
Similar to the 2024 thread, here I start the 2025 thread. As always it is getting increasingly difficult to predict, so I will make a list based on other article predictions. You can also leave your prediction here. Here are the predictions of 2024 that did not make it: Peter Shor, David Deutsch and all the rest of the quantum computing community (various sources) Pablo Jarrillo Herrero, Allan McDonald and Rafi Bistritzer for magic angle in twisted graphene (various sources) Christoph...
Thread 'My experience as a hostage'
I believe it was the summer of 2001 that I made a trip to Peru for my work. I was a private contractor doing automation engineering and programming for various companies, including Frito Lay. Frito had purchased a snack food plant near Lima, Peru, and sent me down to oversee the upgrades to the systems and the startup. Peru was still suffering the ills of a recent civil war and I knew it was dicey, but the money was too good to pass up. It was a long trip to Lima; about 14 hours of airtime...
Back
Top