"I don't believe in luck" Lots of people will say they don't believe in luck, which I guess is a way of saying they believe in some kind of determinism to some extent. I also hear people say that luck is an excuse or that you make your own luck. I understand this could be taken in the philosophical direction of quantum mechanics interpretations and the whole determinism/freewill argument, but that's not where I want to go with this. I start to think that luck is a real phenomenon. I think of it just as a qualitative way of describing an outcome of a probabilistic event that is perceived as a positive effect to an observer. The amount of uncertainty or low probability of that event having a positive effect determines how lucky that event was. Luck should be able to be defined mathematically with a quantitative measurement in terms of some kind of probability calculation. In this sense, making your own luck can just be interpreted as actively increasing the probability of a certain event turning out with a positive effect for yourself. I think it should be accepted as how we use the word luck as a real phenomena rather than just a feeling of amazement, relief, envy, etc. It is easy to take credit away from or increase credit to someone or something that is trying to acheive a specific outcome by inducing or eliminating luck as a factor. Has anyone else thought of this or is anyone familiar with references that have looked at probability with reference to the perceived positive effect from an observer? Feel free to tear apart what I've written; I'm just curious how real the concept of luck is.