Increased demand for STEM in the next 4 years?

[houlahound]

I know a guy that runs an accelerator to produce isotopes for PET, doesn't make a lot of money and 99% of staff don't recognise him when he walks into the building, been there 15 years.

The senior oncologists and treatment planners defer to his analysis of images and possible treatment plan scenarios but barely know his name. He is like a background troll that speaks the truth.

 

[houlahound]

Don't know if this analogy works for management and why an idea trumps technical skill.

There was a band in the 70's that completely changed how music is produced and consumed. There was nothing else ever like them beforehand. They started as an abstract idea bordering on a sham and a deliberate con act.

They effectively spawned a new genre that survives to this day as well as massive cultural and political movements.

Most people only know the band leader's name in the band. The stage manager used to secretly unplug him during performances because he was so bad at playing his instrument.

Such is the power of abstract ideas over technical ability.

10 points for his name and the band name.

 

[Logical Dog]

Yes, the most theoretical computer science course will focus on language development and the theory and control structures (branches, loops?) of programming languages in general. Those who only focus on one or two languages without taking the theoretical background will know the language only

I wish we were taught a theoretical introduction to programming and then focused on languages. So the theoretical computer scientist would have studied questions like what is a programming language? meaning of syntax, and other things like ab abstraction of all characteristics of programming language, they would even study how to create one, but not computer engineers.
. I studied computer engineering, for one semester. The focus was on specific languages (C, java). Later in the semesters we would study algorithm design, which is theoretical. In my opinion we should study programming after this, so later on in the semesters after basic maths is done which is a prerequisite for algorithm design, and then finally programming.

 

[PetSounds]

Don't know if this analogy works for management and why an idea trumps technical skill.

There was a band in the 70's that completely changed how music is produced and consumed. There was nothing else ever like them beforehand. They started as an abstract idea bordering on a sham and a deliberate con act.

They effectively spawned a new genre that survives to this day as well as massive cultural and political movements.

Most people only know the band leader's name in the band. The stage manager used to secretly unplug him during performances because he was so bad at playing his instrument.

Such is the power of abstract ideas over technical ability.

10 points for his name and the band name.

Sid Vicious / Sex Pistols?

 

[Asteropaeus]

I don't believe someone that says 199 out of 200 CS graduates don't know how to program a loop with an if-statement. And it also makes me question everything else that person has to say.

I don't care where they got their degree, US, Bangladesh, the Moon; if they have a CS degree, they know how to do it.

That they do not appear confident during a job interview or that they don't have the skills right away to produce quality organized shippable code, meeting the standards of that specific company, that is a different issue.That there are not enough cheap good programmers, I realize that. But maybe you need to pay more?

There is this race to the bottom for programmers, engineers, driven by management and politics. It is terrible.Oh, and the musician, it wasn't the 70's, it was the 80's, and they didn't 'change' music, they ruined it. His name was Kurt Cobain. And he knew he was a sham. It's a sad story/tragedy.

 

[Vanadium 50]

don't believe someone that says 199 out of 200 CS graduates don't know how to program a loop with an if-statement.

Then you didn't read it through. He's not saying 199 of 200 graduates can't program. He's saying 199 of 200 applicants can't program. This is a pool that is biased by people who can't find work. Which, getting back to the original topic, is why I don't think this will make much difference to employment chances:even in a time of shortages, employers have minimum standards. Get rid of H-1B's and the bar won't move lower, employers will just go to service providers, and yes, some of those will be offshore.

My FizzBuzz solution:

print*, "1"
print*, "2"
print*, "Fizz"
print*, "4"
print*, "Buzz"
print*, "6"
...

 

[jim mcnamara]

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

@Vanadium 50 - Yup.

Our benighted management hired a 'programmer' with several years of experience who could not write fizz-buzz in any language. Instead of hiring a programmer he now is a business analyst. We did not need any more BA's, just very good technical programmer-type folks. Oh well. Then they hired some service company, who sent more BA's aka pseudo-programmers. sigh.

https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/
Edit:
Oops someone else linked fizzbuzz.

 

[Jaeusm]

I don't believe someone that says 199 out of 200 CS graduates don't know how to program a loop with an if-statement.

Loops and 'if' statements aren't the stumbling blocks.

 

[houlahound]

Oh, and the musician, it wasn't the 70's, it was the 80's, and they didn't 'change' music, they ruined it. His name was Kurt Cobain. And he knew he was a sham. It's a sad story/tragedy.

Nope, you are out by a generation.

 

[Crek]

Employers have plenty of competent programmers available, H1Bs are just consistently cheaper.

 

[sa1988]

I find this talk of 'poor CS graduates' quite interesting as I'm sat here furiously trying to teach myself any extra amount of coding I can, alongside my physics degree, in order to open up work opportunities that area. I can do a fair bit and the 'fizzbuzz' thing was a breeze, yet I'm still utterly convinced I'm nowhere near good enough to go for programming work.

Loosely on topic as it relates to 'demand for STEM', and question for those in the know - On my Python module at university last year, the class was told that about 20% of physics grads go into IT jobs. Given the relative simplicity of the course we did (not basics, but certainly nowhere near writing fully executable software packages), it surprised me to see such a high percentage. Could it be that the 20% in those jobs were mainly just doing generic IT tech jobs rather than programming, or am I selling myself short with the coding knowledge I have? (I've taught myself a good deal more than the average physics undergrad too, I believe, in C++).

 

[StatGuy2000]

Then you didn't read it through. He's not saying 199 of 200 graduates can't program. He's saying 199 of 200 applicants can't program. This is a pool that is biased by people who can't find work. Which, getting back to the original topic, is why I don't think this will make much difference to employment chances:even in a time of shortages, employers have minimum standards. Get rid of H-1B's and the bar won't move lower, employers will just go to service providers, and yes, some of those will be offshore.

My FizzBuzz solution:

print*, "1"
print*, "2"
print*, "Fizz"
print*, "4"
print*, "Buzz"
print*, "6"
...

Vanadium 50, I've read the article, yes, he's saying 199 of 200 applicants can't program. But think about it -- what population is the 200 applicants being sampled from? From CS graduates, presumably. If these 200 applicants graduated from a CS program, then by definition they would be able to program. So the very statement rings false. And so your statement about CS graduates "can't program out of a wet bag" rings false to me (actually, I would call it a colloquial equivalent of bovine excrement -- a terminology that I believe goes against PF rules )

And you never answered my question -- which graduates from which STEM programs that have worked for you were the best programmers? (since you obviously think so poorly of CS and their graduates)

 

[Vanadium 50]

And so your statement about CS graduates "can't program out of a wet bag"

Equine excrement. That is not the statement I made. I said "many", not your implied "all".

And you never answered my question

See message #17.

 

[Mark44]

And so your statement about CS graduates "can't program out of a wet bag"

From a post early on in this thread:

Vanadium 50 I think you're talking about what people call "Java schools."

Joel Spolsky on the "perils of Java schools" -- https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2005/12/29/the-perils-of-javaschools-2/
From the Spolsky article:

Instead what I’d like to claim is that Java is not, generally, a hard enough programming language that it can be used to discriminate between great programmers and mediocre programmers.

 

[Asteropaeus]

Can we just ignore Vanadium? He always does this, and it never leads somewhere.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Does what, pray tell?

 

[Mmm_Pasta]

Can we just ignore Vanadium? He always does this, and it never leads somewhere.

Disagreeing with one's views and having your own views challenged is not a healthy reason to ignore someone.

 

[TomServo]

I find this talk of 'poor CS graduates' quite interesting as I'm sat here furiously trying to teach myself any extra amount of coding I can, alongside my physics degree, in order to open up work opportunities that area. I can do a fair bit and the 'fizzbuzz' thing was a breeze, yet I'm still utterly convinced I'm nowhere near good enough to go for programming work.

Loosely on topic as it relates to 'demand for STEM', and question for those in the know - On my Python module at university last year, the class was told that about 20% of physics grads go into IT jobs. Given the relative simplicity of the course we did (not basics, but certainly nowhere near writing fully executable software packages), it surprised me to see such a high percentage. Could it be that the 20% in those jobs were mainly just doing generic IT tech jobs rather than programming, or am I selling myself short with the coding knowledge I have? (I've taught myself a good deal more than the average physics undergrad too, I believe, in C++).

It doesn't hurt to pick a specialty beyond merely learning programming 101 in a particular language, I suggest getting the design patterns book and familiarizing yourself with it, or taking a CS elective that focuses around a semester-long team project. Or maybe you could get a Raspberry Pi and practice device programming, or study assembler (something I'm pretty sure no physicist does anymore in actual physics jobs, but hey).

Of course, there's always COBOL. Pretty good job security and you're left alone I hear.

 

[rootone]

and FORTRAN. it's all that jiggy Java and Python thing now.

 

[sa1988]

It doesn't hurt to pick a specialty beyond merely learning programming 101 in a particular language, I suggest getting the design patterns book and familiarizing yourself with it, or taking a CS elective that focuses around a semester-long team project. Or maybe you could get a Raspberry Pi and practice device programming, or study assembler (something I'm pretty sure no physicist does anymore in actual physics jobs, but hey).

Of course, there's always COBOL. Pretty good job security and you're left alone I hear.

Cheers, I'll look into design patterns - that's a thing I never knew about. I was wondering where a line can be drawn between 'knows coding' and 'can make programs', and I believe you may have pointed me in the right direction toward the answer.

I bought myself an Arduino a while ago which I got to grips with quite easily. It soon occurred to me that a Raspberry Pi may have been a better investment, but never mind.

Can't be doing any electives however as that's not quite how it works over here in Blighty, and I'm nearly done with my degree anyway!

 

[StatGuy2000]

@Vanadium 50 - Yup.

Our benighted management hired a 'programmer' with several years of experience who could not write fizz-buzz in any language. Instead of hiring a programmer he now is a business analyst. We did not need any more BA's, just very good technical programmer-type folks. Oh well. Then they hired some service company, who sent more BA's aka pseudo-programmers. sigh.

https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/
Edit:
Oops someone else linked fizzbuzz.

If the "programmer" your company hired couldn't program, why didn't management in your company simply fire him, instead of have him work as a business analyst? Does management at your company have something against firing people or laying off staff?

In places I've worked with, incompetent programmers didn't last very long.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Getting back to Crek's original post:

You are making several assumptions:

1. That immigration will actually be severely restricted. So far, much of the rhetoric (and corresponding executive orders) have to do with building the wall between US and Mexico, and barring people (temporarily, at least for now) from 7 predominantly Muslim countries from entering the US. For the most part, neither of these have much to do with demand for STEM jobs. We also don't know what the Trump administration intends to do with H1B visas.

2. Even assuming that immigration will be severely restricted, that does not translate to increased demand for "homegrown" (i.e. American) STEM graduates. For starters, you are assuming that (a) the demand for STEM jobs will stay constant after such measures have been implemented, (b) that there are sufficient number of American STEM graduates that can fill positions for STEM jobs, (c) that all STEM degrees are equal in terms of jobs. None of these assumptions are valid.

3. Related to #2, you are assuming that immigrants only take jobs that may have gone to an American STEM graduate. You fail to account for entrepreneurship and the number of companies founded by immigrants, who then go on to hire people (both Americans and immigrants).

At the end of the day, if we assume that there are significant immigration restrictions, I think the overall impact will be either neutral or negative in terms of employment (for STEM or for any other sector). Unfortunately, it is difficult to untangle the impact of immigration restrictions on the overall economy (given that such restrictions have knock-on effects that are difficult to model), so it may well be the case that we may never know the true impact (again, assuming immigration restrictions actually happen).

 

[Crek]

It has been publicized that the next wave of changes are going to target H1Bs. I'm not afraid of further outsourcing, any company that attempts it will likely face substantial repercussions.

 

[Dr Transport]

It has been publicized that the next wave of changes are going to target H1Bs. I'm not afraid of further outsourcing, any company that attempts it will likely face substantial repercussions.

I hope so...

 

[gleem]

It would seem if you believe the links below that there is a lot of hype regarding the need for STEM majors. One could say that if you are committed to a STEM field and are very good at it then go for it. But if you are just future job hunting you may be sorely disappointed.

2013 stats on future demand for STEM jobs http://cis.org/more-us-stem-grads-than-jobs

IEEE says STEM grad shortage in a lot of bunk: http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

Interview of a public policy professor regarding supply and demand for STEM jobs with comments by STEM students
https://soundcloud.com/innovationhub/the-reality-behind-stem-jobs

 

[discountbrain]

Its common knowledge the biggest reason companies like MSFT want foreign tech people is they want to pay a lot less thus, leaving US workers unemployed. Also, there are some very restrictive work environments I know about that most Americans would likely find unacceptable.

 

[Dr Transport]

Its common knowledge the biggest reason companies like MSFT want foreign tech people is they want to pay a lot less thus, leaving US workers unemployed. Also, there are some very restrictive work environments I know about that most Americans would likely find unacceptable.

exactly what i said in post 11...

 

[jim mcnamara]

@StatGuy2000 - they don't have any kind of, um, filtering for new hires. Both positions were open, as I understand it, so it was lateral transfer.

But you are right. Normally there is trial period of 6 months on the job. At the end of that period after review the person becomes 'official'.

 

[StatGuy2000]

exactly what i said in post 11...

You know I keep hearing this quoted anecdotally that companies hire foreign workers for lower wages, keeping US workers unemployed. But is there actual evidence that this is actually happening, and to what extent this is happening in the US economy, at least for specifically for the US tech sector? Because I have my doubts about whether outsourcing has really contributed to that much job loss in the US in the tech sector specifically.

 

[Dr Transport]

You know I keep hearing this quoted anecdotally that companies hire foreign workers for lower wages, keeping US workers unemployed. But is there actual evidence that this is actually happening, and to what extent this is happening in the US economy, at least for specifically for the US tech sector? Because I have my doubts about whether outsourcing has really contributed to that much job loss in the US in the tech sector specifically.

Yes, I was laid off and my position was replaced by a lower paid foreign born programmer.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Yes, I was laid off and my position was replaced by a lower paid foreign born programmer.

I'm sorry to hear about your experiences. However, it's worth keeping in mind that this is just one data point. What I'm asking is more broadly throughout the US economy.

After all, yes, you were laid off, but presumably there would have been other opportunities that would be available (in theory or in practice) to you to pursue. For example, I've been laid off in the past (due to corporate restructuring leading to the loss of an entire department in Canada, with the work we've done being concentrated in the US and France), but my employer gave me and all others in my department a full year to find other employment, which I did so relatively easily (plus we were all given quite generous severance packages).

Of course, my experience is also just another isolated data point.

 

[gleem]

Because I have my doubts about whether outsourcing has really contributed to that much job loss in the US in the tech sector specifically

In a recent TV news segment it was reported that Southern California Electric Company replace its entire its entire IT department with Indian nationals.. 500 jobs.

http://www.computerworld.com/articl...rs-beyond-furious-over-h-1b-replacements.html

Evidence for investigating the magnitude of this issue

http://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-program/

How many time have you sought tech support for a US company and got a foreign voice at the other end?

 

[Dr Transport]

not the only data point, i know multiple people in multiple industries who were let go and replaced by foreign born workers making half or so of their predecessors for the exact same position.

I have been out of work for a year, no hits in almost 4 months on resumes submitted and I was told by one friend who wanted to hire me that the hiring manager told him that I wasn't under consideration because I was going to want too much money, even though I was a perfect fit for the position and recruited by the HR department.

 

[StatGuy2000]

In a recent TV news segment it was reported that Southern California Electric Company replace its entire its entire IT department with Indian nationals.. 500 jobs.

http://www.computerworld.com/articl...rs-beyond-furious-over-h-1b-replacements.html

Evidence for investigating the magnitude of this issue

http://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-program/

How many time have you sought tech support for a US company and got a foreign voice at the other end?

First of all, in many such cases, these are tech support positions that didn't even exist in the US. Second, I recall during the 90s (well before the major outsourcing period occurred) that within the software/IT industry there was such a severe shortage of people with computer science backgrounds that employers were forced to resort to "importing" workers from overseas (India being one major source, but also from China, Canada, etc.) And keep in mind that these immigrant workers were paid the same wages as American workers, since salaries weren't differentiated by national origin.

With the burst in the tech bubble in the early 2000s came job losses in the sector (as well as the outsourcing of work), but in many such instances, the first people who were laid off were immigrant workers. Also, with the outsourcing, what tended to happen was that many immigrant or expat workers (particularly from India) simply returned to their home countries to work at the outsourcing service companies. So I suspect that the unemployment rate among STEM individuals overall within the US may not necessarily have been impacted.

 

[StatGuy2000]

not the only data point, i know multiple people in multiple industries who were let go and replaced by foreign born workers making half or so of their predecessors for the exact same position.

I have been out of work for a year, no hits in almost 4 months on resumes submitted and I was told by one friend who wanted to hire me that the hiring manager told him that I wasn't under consideration because I was going to want too much money, even though I was a perfect fit for the position and recruited by the HR department.

Again, these are mere anecdotes. I'm a statistician -- data beats anecdotes. I'm not suggesting that outsourcing does not have any impact -- I'm questioning whether the impact is that severe when looking at the broader US labour market.

I should also add that in your case, the fact that you've been out of work for a year may be due to several factors, including age (age discrimination is a thing, especially because older workers are assumed to want higher salaries). Also, the question of your resume, sectors you are looking to work in (I know from your profile is in semiconductor physics, but not sure where specifically you were applying to), your ability to retrain/retool to work in other sectors, and how you are using your networks.

My advice (if you were seeking it from me) would be to speak to some form of career counselor to see if there might be ways to spruce up your resume (if you haven't done so already), or speak/talk to a recruiter for contract type jobs. Also to more fully utilize your networks (through LinkedIn, among other places).