Job Skills Increased demand for STEM in the next 4 years?

[houlahound]

There is an IT guy at my workplace who is a great programmer. In his experience the guys that write the code are the lowest paid and most disposable.

The guy that can interpret the clients needs and organise a project thru to completion and or create new ideas for products, creates new revenue streams while having only basic coding skills gets further up the food chain quicker than the most super efficient programmer that does not have those more intangible skills.

This guy has his name forever on chunks of Unix that pretty much every is built on.

He can program a computer to get up and dance in front of you, I can't program to save myself and earn more than twice his pay and tell him what to do.

To be honest we could save money by getting a school kid to keep our printers, AV equipment, software installations etc done and get our coding solutions done remotely in the Ukraine or something.

It appears to be the people that have the ideas worth coding are the ones in most demand.

 

[bhobba]

There is an IT guy at my workplace who is a great programmer. In his experience the guys that write the code are the lowest paid and most disposable.

Spot on. Managers by and large hold programming in low esteem. Cant get a good one - no problem hire a contractor. And that filters down to universities and what they teach.

I rose very quickly from junior programmer, to senior programmer, to team leader - it really was astonishing. Then stopped - I remained at that level for 20 years. But guess what - people whose programming skills were mediocre at best did it slower - but still did it. However all those other skills came into play once you reach team leader level and they shot even higher into much higher paying management roles.

No wonder no one cares about programmers.

BTW the reaction of the typical good programmer to this was to create higher level technical positions so they could advance. I didn't agree with that - I thought I still got paid good money. My belief is you need to develop peoples weaknesses. That means the mediocre programmers are developed programming wise and those with mediocre management skills are developed in that area. Eventually they will be able to move on and the mediocre programmers will have a much better understanding of what's really required to get systems up and running. But of course those with more natural management skills were fast tracked rather than paying their dues so to speak. Those with good programming skills were left to rot or go out contracting. Who cares - if they leave get a contractor in.

BTW, from over 20 years programming experience this is the reason for development failures - it is well known management failure is the reason - but this specific issue is at the root of it. I had one manager, who I liked a lot and even now I am retired keep in touch with, say to me about a product called Cool-Gen that since it was a code generator you didn't need programmers any more. I carefully explained it generates code from a language - understanding that language (it still had arrays etc) required programming skills. Anyway she, or maybe her managers, didn't believe me and sent business people on Cool-Gen courses. They lasted about half a day and said it was gibberish to them.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

To be honest we could save money by getting a school kid to keep our printers, AV equipment, software installations etc done and get our coding solutions done remotely in the Ukraine or something.

Although I gave your post my like I don't agree with that. You do not outsource core business - those doing it, and that includes programmers, need to understand it. They then communicate easier with the business people and pick up errors in what they want (and conversely),

It appears to be the people that have the ideas worth coding are the ones in most demand.

I had many ideas worth coding and did it. The race goes to those whose managers know about it and communicate it up. When that happened I was held is quite high esteem. When managers didn't do that - it was - Bill - who - or other laughing comments about character flaws.

But I have to be honest and say it was an uphill battle communicating this to my staff. I took them to business meetings, tried to get them involved in business stuff but to no avail, they just wanted to code. It slowly worked - but it was time consuming and hard. Other team leaders couldn't have cared less - they all fought over getting contractors in their team - they required no development or management - the goal was to be noticed by those above them to get promoted. Guess what - it worked. I had some managers who loved me and were always telling their managers how good I was - others - well let's just say they had a different view. Interestingly the business people loved me, or so I was told. My manager said she never had seen it before - most business people sort of ignore programmers.

Thanks
Bill

 

[houlahound]

Not sure if the political STEM rhetoric is matched on the ground, in my org the most technically skilled people are the lowest paid. At the bottom we have an all round super fix it guy that is expected to fix everything, that includes power, buildings, safety, logistics but excludes information.

At the top nobody even knows what that guy does, apparently not much.

If the lowest guy fails the whole system fails, if the highest guy fails nobody notices any difference because he has effectively been isolated out of the machinery and is a virtual figurehead.

 

[bhobba]

Not sure if the political STEM rhetoric is matched on the ground, in my org the most technically skilled people are the lowest paid. At the bottom we have an all round super fix it guy that organi

When I worked as a programmer they were mid level paid. I got about the equivalent of $100k py these days. Higher level management staff got a lot more.

But my opinion of higher level management was, on the average, pretty low - some stunningly good ones out there - but others - well read the following (I didn't work there):
http://duncanmccaskill.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/abs-2017-haunted-by-ghost-of-abs-2009.html

As far as I can see its too dominated by political BS - those good at that do well. I was at the EL1 level mentioned above. BTW - guess what - they failed - no ABS redevelopment by 2017 - I wonder why. The thing is - how did they get away with it without being sacked - as I said political BS. Management failure is, and always has been, the enemy.

Addded Later:
BTW the folllowing from the article above is VERY VERY common:
Senior management had claimed that drastic steps had to be taken in 2009 to reduce the numbers at management levels and that natural attrition and voluntary redundancies could not work. This claim was soon shown to be, at best, dubious. Within less than a year about 8 AS positions were advertised and a new Deputy position was created. So much for reducing management numbers.

It happened many times at places where I worked, at places I heard about and even at the state of Australia where I live - Queensland. A previous premier kicked out a lot of public servants for the same reason. When he was kicked out they had more higher level staff than before. Sort of makes you wonder doesn't it.

Thanks
Bill

 

[houlahound]

I know a guy that runs an accelerator to produce isotopes for PET, doesn't make a lot of money and 99% of staff don't recognise him when he walks into the building, been there 15 years.

The senior oncologists and treatment planners defer to his analysis of images and possible treatment plan scenarios but barely know his name. He is like a background troll that speaks the truth.

 

[houlahound]

Don't know if this analogy works for management and why an idea trumps technical skill.

There was a band in the 70's that completely changed how music is produced and consumed. There was nothing else ever like them beforehand. They started as an abstract idea bordering on a sham and a deliberate con act.

They effectively spawned a new genre that survives to this day as well as massive cultural and political movements.

Most people only know the band leader's name in the band. The stage manager used to secretly unplug him during performances because he was so bad at playing his instrument.

Such is the power of abstract ideas over technical ability.

10 points for his name and the band name.

 

[Logical Dog]

Yes, the most theoretical computer science course will focus on language development and the theory and control structures (branches, loops?) of programming languages in general. Those who only focus on one or two languages without taking the theoretical background will know the language only

I wish we were taught a theoretical introduction to programming and then focused on languages. So the theoretical computer scientist would have studied questions like what is a programming language? meaning of syntax, and other things like ab abstraction of all characteristics of programming language, they would even study how to create one, but not computer engineers.
. I studied computer engineering, for one semester. The focus was on specific languages (C, java). Later in the semesters we would study algorithm design, which is theoretical. In my opinion we should study programming after this, so later on in the semesters after basic maths is done which is a prerequisite for algorithm design, and then finally programming.

 

[PetSounds]

Don't know if this analogy works for management and why an idea trumps technical skill.

There was a band in the 70's that completely changed how music is produced and consumed. There was nothing else ever like them beforehand. They started as an abstract idea bordering on a sham and a deliberate con act.

They effectively spawned a new genre that survives to this day as well as massive cultural and political movements.

Most people only know the band leader's name in the band. The stage manager used to secretly unplug him during performances because he was so bad at playing his instrument.

Such is the power of abstract ideas over technical ability.

10 points for his name and the band name.

Sid Vicious / Sex Pistols?

 

[Asteropaeus]

I don't believe someone that says 199 out of 200 CS graduates don't know how to program a loop with an if-statement. And it also makes me question everything else that person has to say.

I don't care where they got their degree, US, Bangladesh, the Moon; if they have a CS degree, they know how to do it.

That they do not appear confident during a job interview or that they don't have the skills right away to produce quality organized shippable code, meeting the standards of that specific company, that is a different issue.That there are not enough cheap good programmers, I realize that. But maybe you need to pay more?

There is this race to the bottom for programmers, engineers, driven by management and politics. It is terrible.Oh, and the musician, it wasn't the 70's, it was the 80's, and they didn't 'change' music, they ruined it. His name was Kurt Cobain. And he knew he was a sham. It's a sad story/tragedy.

 

[Vanadium 50]

don't believe someone that says 199 out of 200 CS graduates don't know how to program a loop with an if-statement.

Then you didn't read it through. He's not saying 199 of 200 graduates can't program. He's saying 199 of 200 applicants can't program. This is a pool that is biased by people who can't find work. Which, getting back to the original topic, is why I don't think this will make much difference to employment chances:even in a time of shortages, employers have minimum standards. Get rid of H-1B's and the bar won't move lower, employers will just go to service providers, and yes, some of those will be offshore.

My FizzBuzz solution:

print*, "1"
print*, "2"
print*, "Fizz"
print*, "4"
print*, "Buzz"
print*, "6"
...

 

[jim mcnamara]

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

@Vanadium 50 - Yup.

Our benighted management hired a 'programmer' with several years of experience who could not write fizz-buzz in any language. Instead of hiring a programmer he now is a business analyst. We did not need any more BA's, just very good technical programmer-type folks. Oh well. Then they hired some service company, who sent more BA's aka pseudo-programmers. sigh.

https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/
Edit:
Oops someone else linked fizzbuzz.

 

[Jaeusm]

I don't believe someone that says 199 out of 200 CS graduates don't know how to program a loop with an if-statement.

Loops and 'if' statements aren't the stumbling blocks.

 

[houlahound]

Oh, and the musician, it wasn't the 70's, it was the 80's, and they didn't 'change' music, they ruined it. His name was Kurt Cobain. And he knew he was a sham. It's a sad story/tragedy.

Nope, you are out by a generation.

 

[Crek]

Employers have plenty of competent programmers available, H1Bs are just consistently cheaper.

 

[sa1988]

I find this talk of 'poor CS graduates' quite interesting as I'm sat here furiously trying to teach myself any extra amount of coding I can, alongside my physics degree, in order to open up work opportunities that area. I can do a fair bit and the 'fizzbuzz' thing was a breeze, yet I'm still utterly convinced I'm nowhere near good enough to go for programming work.

Loosely on topic as it relates to 'demand for STEM', and question for those in the know - On my Python module at university last year, the class was told that about 20% of physics grads go into IT jobs. Given the relative simplicity of the course we did (not basics, but certainly nowhere near writing fully executable software packages), it surprised me to see such a high percentage. Could it be that the 20% in those jobs were mainly just doing generic IT tech jobs rather than programming, or am I selling myself short with the coding knowledge I have? (I've taught myself a good deal more than the average physics undergrad too, I believe, in C++).

 

[StatGuy2000]

Then you didn't read it through. He's not saying 199 of 200 graduates can't program. He's saying 199 of 200 applicants can't program. This is a pool that is biased by people who can't find work. Which, getting back to the original topic, is why I don't think this will make much difference to employment chances:even in a time of shortages, employers have minimum standards. Get rid of H-1B's and the bar won't move lower, employers will just go to service providers, and yes, some of those will be offshore.

My FizzBuzz solution:

print*, "1"
print*, "2"
print*, "Fizz"
print*, "4"
print*, "Buzz"
print*, "6"
...

Vanadium 50, I've read the article, yes, he's saying 199 of 200 applicants can't program. But think about it -- what population is the 200 applicants being sampled from? From CS graduates, presumably. If these 200 applicants graduated from a CS program, then by definition they would be able to program. So the very statement rings false. And so your statement about CS graduates "can't program out of a wet bag" rings false to me (actually, I would call it a colloquial equivalent of bovine excrement -- a terminology that I believe goes against PF rules )

And you never answered my question -- which graduates from which STEM programs that have worked for you were the best programmers? (since you obviously think so poorly of CS and their graduates)

 

[Vanadium 50]

And so your statement about CS graduates "can't program out of a wet bag"

Equine excrement. That is not the statement I made. I said "many", not your implied "all".

And you never answered my question

See message #17.

 

[Mark44]

And so your statement about CS graduates "can't program out of a wet bag"

From a post early on in this thread:

Vanadium 50 I think you're talking about what people call "Java schools."

Joel Spolsky on the "perils of Java schools" -- https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2005/12/29/the-perils-of-javaschools-2/
From the Spolsky article:

Instead what I’d like to claim is that Java is not, generally, a hard enough programming language that it can be used to discriminate between great programmers and mediocre programmers.

 

[Asteropaeus]

Can we just ignore Vanadium? He always does this, and it never leads somewhere.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Does what, pray tell?

 

[Mmm_Pasta]

Can we just ignore Vanadium? He always does this, and it never leads somewhere.

Disagreeing with one's views and having your own views challenged is not a healthy reason to ignore someone.

 

[TomServo]

I find this talk of 'poor CS graduates' quite interesting as I'm sat here furiously trying to teach myself any extra amount of coding I can, alongside my physics degree, in order to open up work opportunities that area. I can do a fair bit and the 'fizzbuzz' thing was a breeze, yet I'm still utterly convinced I'm nowhere near good enough to go for programming work.

Loosely on topic as it relates to 'demand for STEM', and question for those in the know - On my Python module at university last year, the class was told that about 20% of physics grads go into IT jobs. Given the relative simplicity of the course we did (not basics, but certainly nowhere near writing fully executable software packages), it surprised me to see such a high percentage. Could it be that the 20% in those jobs were mainly just doing generic IT tech jobs rather than programming, or am I selling myself short with the coding knowledge I have? (I've taught myself a good deal more than the average physics undergrad too, I believe, in C++).

It doesn't hurt to pick a specialty beyond merely learning programming 101 in a particular language, I suggest getting the design patterns book and familiarizing yourself with it, or taking a CS elective that focuses around a semester-long team project. Or maybe you could get a Raspberry Pi and practice device programming, or study assembler (something I'm pretty sure no physicist does anymore in actual physics jobs, but hey).

Of course, there's always COBOL. Pretty good job security and you're left alone I hear.

 

[rootone]

and FORTRAN. it's all that jiggy Java and Python thing now.

 

[sa1988]

It doesn't hurt to pick a specialty beyond merely learning programming 101 in a particular language, I suggest getting the design patterns book and familiarizing yourself with it, or taking a CS elective that focuses around a semester-long team project. Or maybe you could get a Raspberry Pi and practice device programming, or study assembler (something I'm pretty sure no physicist does anymore in actual physics jobs, but hey).

Of course, there's always COBOL. Pretty good job security and you're left alone I hear.

Cheers, I'll look into design patterns - that's a thing I never knew about. I was wondering where a line can be drawn between 'knows coding' and 'can make programs', and I believe you may have pointed me in the right direction toward the answer.

I bought myself an Arduino a while ago which I got to grips with quite easily. It soon occurred to me that a Raspberry Pi may have been a better investment, but never mind.

Can't be doing any electives however as that's not quite how it works over here in Blighty, and I'm nearly done with my degree anyway!

 

[StatGuy2000]

@Vanadium 50 - Yup.

Our benighted management hired a 'programmer' with several years of experience who could not write fizz-buzz in any language. Instead of hiring a programmer he now is a business analyst. We did not need any more BA's, just very good technical programmer-type folks. Oh well. Then they hired some service company, who sent more BA's aka pseudo-programmers. sigh.

https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/
Edit:
Oops someone else linked fizzbuzz.

If the "programmer" your company hired couldn't program, why didn't management in your company simply fire him, instead of have him work as a business analyst? Does management at your company have something against firing people or laying off staff?

In places I've worked with, incompetent programmers didn't last very long.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Getting back to Crek's original post:

You are making several assumptions:

1. That immigration will actually be severely restricted. So far, much of the rhetoric (and corresponding executive orders) have to do with building the wall between US and Mexico, and barring people (temporarily, at least for now) from 7 predominantly Muslim countries from entering the US. For the most part, neither of these have much to do with demand for STEM jobs. We also don't know what the Trump administration intends to do with H1B visas.

2. Even assuming that immigration will be severely restricted, that does not translate to increased demand for "homegrown" (i.e. American) STEM graduates. For starters, you are assuming that (a) the demand for STEM jobs will stay constant after such measures have been implemented, (b) that there are sufficient number of American STEM graduates that can fill positions for STEM jobs, (c) that all STEM degrees are equal in terms of jobs. None of these assumptions are valid.

3. Related to #2, you are assuming that immigrants only take jobs that may have gone to an American STEM graduate. You fail to account for entrepreneurship and the number of companies founded by immigrants, who then go on to hire people (both Americans and immigrants).

At the end of the day, if we assume that there are significant immigration restrictions, I think the overall impact will be either neutral or negative in terms of employment (for STEM or for any other sector). Unfortunately, it is difficult to untangle the impact of immigration restrictions on the overall economy (given that such restrictions have knock-on effects that are difficult to model), so it may well be the case that we may never know the true impact (again, assuming immigration restrictions actually happen).

 

[Crek]

It has been publicized that the next wave of changes are going to target H1Bs. I'm not afraid of further outsourcing, any company that attempts it will likely face substantial repercussions.

 

[Dr Transport]

It has been publicized that the next wave of changes are going to target H1Bs. I'm not afraid of further outsourcing, any company that attempts it will likely face substantial repercussions.

I hope so...

 

[gleem]

It would seem if you believe the links below that there is a lot of hype regarding the need for STEM majors. One could say that if you are committed to a STEM field and are very good at it then go for it. But if you are just future job hunting you may be sorely disappointed.

2013 stats on future demand for STEM jobs http://cis.org/more-us-stem-grads-than-jobs

IEEE says STEM grad shortage in a lot of bunk: http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

Interview of a public policy professor regarding supply and demand for STEM jobs with comments by STEM students
https://soundcloud.com/innovationhub/the-reality-behind-stem-jobs