Increased demand for STEM in the next 4 years?

[Crek]

Supposing immigration is heavily restricted in the future will there be an increased demand for home-grown US STEM in the next 4-8 years? How will these new rules impact the job market for US citizens? What sectors do you think will experience the biggest surge in demand?

 

[BvU]

I think a country that's dumb enough for this crap to actually happen doesn't have a need for STEM jobs for a while to come, so the prospects are grim.

 

[Dr. Courtney]

If you are good in your area, most STEM areas sill continue to be in demand in the next two decades regardless of immigration policy.

 

[Crek]

I know software and EE is heavily impacted by H1Bs so this should substantially increase the demand in these areas but what about the other sectors that employ stem graduates? Will academic positions become more available?

 

[Vanadium 50]

There are ~400,000 H1B's working on software. There are ~4,000,000 people in the US working on software. So it's a 10% effect. Since these are three year visas, the effect works out to - even in the most extreme case of completely ending H1B's -3% per year.

 

[Crek]

That effect is substantial when only looking at software graduates per year who will be looking for work upon graduation. Opening 130,000 positions per year will be absolutely huge.

 

[Vanadium 50]

That effect is substantial when only looking at software graduates per year who will be looking for work upon graduation

If it only affects new graduates, that means that all the old graduates already have jobs.So it can't make a huge effect in that case either.

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

 

[TomServo]

If it only affects new graduates, that means that all the old graduates already have jobs.So it can't make a huge effect in that case either.

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

I'm curious, why do you think that is? And do you see a correlation between CS grad abilities and alma mater?

 

[Crek]

If it only affects new graduates, that means that all the old graduates already have jobs.So it can't make a huge effect in that case either.

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

Or it could be that prior graduates aren't in software anymore and have gone into something else, the rate of CS graduates is increasing. Regardless of your experience I think it's fallacious to say American students aren't qualified or are subpar. Based upon my own experience with visa students(at the undergrad level), they perform the same as US students(while taking space from US students). If a company could have outsourced they would have, what's left is what won't be. Of course at this point the actual outcome is unknown, we will see what happens.

 

[ShayanJ]

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag.

Computer science is to computer engineering, as physics is to all engineering. As physicists aren't supposed to be good at building a house, computer scientists aren't supposed to be good programmers. Of course sometimes some research in computer science requires programming ability but again a programmer is supposed to be able to program anything the customer needs but a computer scientist's programming ability is usually in the direction of what he's doing research on. So if you want to talk about people that are supposed to be getting programming jobs and be good at them, you should talk about computer engineers, not computer scientists.

 

[Dr Transport]

... Regardless of your experience I think it's fallacious to say American students aren't qualified or are subpar. Based upon my own experience with visa students(at the undergrad level), they perform the same as US students(while taking space from US students). If a company could have outsourced they would have, what's left is what won't be...

They outsource and hire foreign students for one reason and one reason only, PROFITS. Foreign workers pay is substantially less than the comparable person in the US and on that point, companies will pay a foreign born programmer less even if they are working in the country. Follow the money scent...

 

[clope023]

There's demand NOW, look at USA jobs, Indeed, and any other major job search engine; the job openings are there.

 

[Jaeusm]

Computer science is to computer engineering, as physics is to all engineering. As physicists aren't supposed to be good at building a house, computer scientists aren't supposed to be good programmers. Of course sometimes some research in computer science requires programming ability but again a programmer is supposed to be able to program anything the customer needs but a computer scientist's programming ability is usually in the direction of what he's doing research on. So if you want to talk about people that are supposed to be getting programming jobs and be good at them, you should talk about computer engineers, not computer scientists.

Perhaps in your country the terms 'computer science' and 'computer engineering' are defined differently than in the US. Here, computer engineering is half electrical engineering and half computer science. Computer scientists, especially those in subfields other than theoretical CS, should be decent programmers. Most graduates of computer science programs become professional programmers. In general, computer engineering programs tend to have a smaller programming component than computer science programs.

 

[StatGuy2000]

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag.

Vanadium 50, I'm curious where you are finding these graduates. My experience has been that the computer science graduates that I know of were all competent programmers, and many were absolutely phenomenal.

 

[Jaeusm]

Vanadium 50, I'm curious where you are finding these graduates. My experience has been that the computer science graduates that I know of were all competent programmers, and many were absolutely phenomenal.

They're everywhere. What is your criteria for 'phenomenal'?

 

[StatGuy2000]

They're everywhere. What is your criteria for 'phenomenal'?

'Phenomenal' means exactly that -- they have built sophisticated e-commerce systems, or programmed simulations used in clinical trial research, as some recent examples that I know first hand. The skills developed by some of the CS graduates I've worked with were impressive, and the rest were competent.

They certainly were not people who "can't program their way out of a paper bag", to use Vanadium 50's term. Hence why I asked how his employer is hiring these people.

But then again, the CS graduates that I've worked with are graduates from schools like the University of Toronto, University of Waterloo in Canada, or schools like the University of Michigan, Stanford or Berkeley in the US. So perhaps my sample is not representative?

 

[Vanadium 50]

There are a huge number of programmers who are graduates of relatively unknown colleges. What seems to be the common factor is that the better programmers took classes with names like 'data structures' and the less good ones took classes with names like 'Python'.

 

[Mark44]

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

Vanadium 50, I'm curious where you are finding these graduates. My experience has been that the computer science graduates that I know of were all competent programmers, and many were absolutely phenomenal.

From an article published 10 years ago -- https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/

I doubt that the situation has changed much since then.

 

[Jaeusm]

'Phenomenal' means exactly that -- they have built sophisticated e-commerce systems, or programmed simulations used in clinical trial research, as some recent examples that I know first hand.

Fair enough. Without derailing this thread further, I'll just say that you and I have different criteria.

From an article published 10 years ago -- https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/

I doubt that the situation has changed much since then.

My employer still uses fizz buzz in initial interviews. It's still effective in weeding out a fair number of candidates, including some fresh CS graduates with 4.0 GPAs. To be fair, some experienced programmers have failed to solve the problem, as well.

 

[TomServo]

Oh gosh I once screwed up a FizzBuzz on a final, after a semester of working on a team software project. It can happen to anybody, everybody has brain farts some times.

Vanadium 50 I think you're talking about what people call "Java schools." Some schools teach software engineering and others merely teach programming. Although you'd think even the people with a CS degree from a Java school wouldn't screw up simple interviews the way they do in that "Why can't programmers program" article.

 

[ShayanJ]

Perhaps in your country the terms 'computer science' and 'computer engineering' are defined differently than in the US. Here, computer engineering is half electrical engineering and half computer science. Computer scientists, especially those in subfields other than theoretical CS, should be decent programmers. Most graduates of computer science programs become professional programmers. In general, computer engineering programs tend to have a smaller programming component than computer science programs.

So if programming jobs are for CS majors outside of theoretical CS, what is the job of computer engineers in US, specially software engineers? Are they more like team leaders in big software projects?

 

[Dr Transport]

They have a background in interfacing the hardware and software since the degree is a hybrid between electrical engineering and computer science.

https://www.eng.buffalo.edu/undergrad/advisement/flowsheets/?plan=CEN-2016

 

[StatGuy2000]

From an article published 10 years ago -- https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/

I doubt that the situation has changed much since then.

I've seen the article that you've seen, and it still astounds me even to this day, because this was certainly not the experience of the CS graduates that I knew when I attended the University of Toronto. I also have had friends who graduated from the University of Waterloo (among the top-ranked schools for CS in Canada), and I can assure that every single one of them would be able to code the FizzBuzz easily.

On that note, let me ask both you and Vanadium 50 this question. Which graduates, in your experience, were the most capable programmers?

 

[Mark44]

On that note, let me ask both you and Vanadium 50 this question. Which graduates, in your experience, were the most capable programmers?

I'll leave this to V50, as my work experience (tenured community college professor and programming writer at a large software firm) did not include interviewing and hiring programmers.

 

[Sagant]

I find this article very weird. Anyone that has gone thoufhout a CS degree should know how to code this simple programs (such as FizzBuzz). An university that offers a degree that does not teach to 1) program, and 2) how to solve basic problems with programmin; should not be allowed to have a CS degree. It is like a physicist that graduates without knowing math. In my university (not a top one like U. Toronto) every CS major knows how to program and, more importantly, how to think in a "CS way" to solve problems. None that I've heard of had any issues with that (those that had would not complete the degree). A common thing here, though, is to math and physics major not know how to program - I don't know the reasons.

On another point, sometimes an interview can be a lot stressfull and make the candidate nervous. This can impact on ones performance, even if the taks is as simple as the FizzBuzz.

As for the topic: To be fair I'm not from the US (Brazil rather), so I can't really tell. However, I have the impression that the next years will employ as much STEM as they do now, or perhaps a little bit more due to growth - not out of the usual I think. Maybe there will be an increase on the amount of americans employed in these areas. Most of what I've read regarding world-wide jobs, is that STEM careers are still among the ones with smaller unemplyement rates. In developing countries (such as mine) some companies even lack enough employees to do the job, especially in the software area (though, here basically only CS and CE are employed as programmers).

 

[houlahound]

Might be more openings if the same bans apply to outsourcing. I mean do you really have to physically be in a country to cause havoc in the high tech era?

 

[rootone]

... can't program their way out of a paper bag...

That would be quite a feat even using dedicated hardware.

 

[Fooality]

Computer science is to computer engineering, as physics is to all engineering. As physicists aren't supposed to be good at building a house, computer scientists aren't supposed to be good programmers. Of course sometimes some research in computer science requires programming ability but again a programmer is supposed to be able to program anything the customer needs but a computer scientist's programming ability is usually in the direction of what he's doing research on. So if you want to talk about people that are supposed to be getting programming jobs and be good at them, you should talk about computer engineers, not computer scientists.

The gist of this is true. Programming is what a computer science major learns in his or her first year, and somewhat second, the rest is computer science. You don't need to go to school for CS to get a job in programming, you need to program all the time on demonstrable open source projects, and a high school degree is fine if you know what you're doing and can show it. A person with their heart in programming has mastery of the quirks and idioms of their preferred language, a person who's truly into CS doesn't necessarily, in fact they are typically bored by that kind of thing, but interested in the abstract algorithms and data structures behind challenging problems like AI, Image recognition, etc. in a language independent mathematical way.

 

[bhobba]

My experience is that many so called computer science graduates can't program their way out of a paper bag. I don't think the reaction to a reduction in H1B's will be to hire them. It will be to hire services companies.

Your not kidding - I had to interview them. Yuck.

Even worse was their knowledge of the system development life cycle and what the modern approach was (its RAD with many small steps often then pull back and evaluate after each step).

Worst of all was why do software projects fail. No one knew that one (its invariably lack of proper management). It makes you wonder what they teach.

I was taught all that (except the modern development methodologies - I was taught old ones like Constantine, DeMarco etc)

I was speaking to the head of the computing department at the ANU at a wine function I went to - I used to be heavily into wines at one time. He said they consulted a lot with industry about what was needed and were told it was communication skills - so guess what they concentrated on. I told him you were obviously speaking to managers - speak to people at the coalface like me and you will get a different story.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

On that note, let me ask both you and Vanadium 50 this question. Which graduates, in your experience, were the most capable programmers?

Those that concentrated on the 'hard core' programming subjects like data structures, Assembly language etc. I remember when I did Assembly language we had to write a program using recursion - the famous tower of Hanoi. Most students were lazy and didn't do it hoping they will loose just 10% of the final marks which is all it was worth. This incensed my lecturer who set another even harder recursion program that had to be done - the quick-sort.

Its courses that concentrate on that sort of thing that produce the best programmers. These days they seem to concentrate more on 'soft' skills.

Thanks
Bill

 

[houlahound]

There is an IT guy at my workplace who is a great programmer. In his experience the guys that write the code are the lowest paid and most disposable.

The guy that can interpret the clients needs and organise a project thru to completion and or create new ideas for products, creates new revenue streams while having only basic coding skills gets further up the food chain quicker than the most super efficient programmer that does not have those more intangible skills.

This guy has his name forever on chunks of Unix that pretty much every is built on.

He can program a computer to get up and dance in front of you, I can't program to save myself and earn more than twice his pay and tell him what to do.

To be honest we could save money by getting a school kid to keep our printers, AV equipment, software installations etc done and get our coding solutions done remotely in the Ukraine or something.

It appears to be the people that have the ideas worth coding are the ones in most demand.

 

[bhobba]

There is an IT guy at my workplace who is a great programmer. In his experience the guys that write the code are the lowest paid and most disposable.

Spot on. Managers by and large hold programming in low esteem. Cant get a good one - no problem hire a contractor. And that filters down to universities and what they teach.

I rose very quickly from junior programmer, to senior programmer, to team leader - it really was astonishing. Then stopped - I remained at that level for 20 years. But guess what - people whose programming skills were mediocre at best did it slower - but still did it. However all those other skills came into play once you reach team leader level and they shot even higher into much higher paying management roles.

No wonder no one cares about programmers.

BTW the reaction of the typical good programmer to this was to create higher level technical positions so they could advance. I didn't agree with that - I thought I still got paid good money. My belief is you need to develop peoples weaknesses. That means the mediocre programmers are developed programming wise and those with mediocre management skills are developed in that area. Eventually they will be able to move on and the mediocre programmers will have a much better understanding of what's really required to get systems up and running. But of course those with more natural management skills were fast tracked rather than paying their dues so to speak. Those with good programming skills were left to rot or go out contracting. Who cares - if they leave get a contractor in.

BTW, from over 20 years programming experience this is the reason for development failures - it is well known management failure is the reason - but this specific issue is at the root of it. I had one manager, who I liked a lot and even now I am retired keep in touch with, say to me about a product called Cool-Gen that since it was a code generator you didn't need programmers any more. I carefully explained it generates code from a language - understanding that language (it still had arrays etc) required programming skills. Anyway she, or maybe her managers, didn't believe me and sent business people on Cool-Gen courses. They lasted about half a day and said it was gibberish to them.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

To be honest we could save money by getting a school kid to keep our printers, AV equipment, software installations etc done and get our coding solutions done remotely in the Ukraine or something.

Although I gave your post my like I don't agree with that. You do not outsource core business - those doing it, and that includes programmers, need to understand it. They then communicate easier with the business people and pick up errors in what they want (and conversely),

It appears to be the people that have the ideas worth coding are the ones in most demand.

I had many ideas worth coding and did it. The race goes to those whose managers know about it and communicate it up. When that happened I was held is quite high esteem. When managers didn't do that - it was - Bill - who - or other laughing comments about character flaws.

But I have to be honest and say it was an uphill battle communicating this to my staff. I took them to business meetings, tried to get them involved in business stuff but to no avail, they just wanted to code. It slowly worked - but it was time consuming and hard. Other team leaders couldn't have cared less - they all fought over getting contractors in their team - they required no development or management - the goal was to be noticed by those above them to get promoted. Guess what - it worked. I had some managers who loved me and were always telling their managers how good I was - others - well let's just say they had a different view. Interestingly the business people loved me, or so I was told. My manager said she never had seen it before - most business people sort of ignore programmers.

Thanks
Bill

 

[houlahound]

Not sure if the political STEM rhetoric is matched on the ground, in my org the most technically skilled people are the lowest paid. At the bottom we have an all round super fix it guy that is expected to fix everything, that includes power, buildings, safety, logistics but excludes information.

At the top nobody even knows what that guy does, apparently not much.

If the lowest guy fails the whole system fails, if the highest guy fails nobody notices any difference because he has effectively been isolated out of the machinery and is a virtual figurehead.

 

[bhobba]

Not sure if the political STEM rhetoric is matched on the ground, in my org the most technically skilled people are the lowest paid. At the bottom we have an all round super fix it guy that organi

When I worked as a programmer they were mid level paid. I got about the equivalent of $100k py these days. Higher level management staff got a lot more.

But my opinion of higher level management was, on the average, pretty low - some stunningly good ones out there - but others - well read the following (I didn't work there):
http://duncanmccaskill.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/abs-2017-haunted-by-ghost-of-abs-2009.html

As far as I can see its too dominated by political BS - those good at that do well. I was at the EL1 level mentioned above. BTW - guess what - they failed - no ABS redevelopment by 2017 - I wonder why. The thing is - how did they get away with it without being sacked - as I said political BS. Management failure is, and always has been, the enemy.

Addded Later:
BTW the folllowing from the article above is VERY VERY common:
Senior management had claimed that drastic steps had to be taken in 2009 to reduce the numbers at management levels and that natural attrition and voluntary redundancies could not work. This claim was soon shown to be, at best, dubious. Within less than a year about 8 AS positions were advertised and a new Deputy position was created. So much for reducing management numbers.

It happened many times at places where I worked, at places I heard about and even at the state of Australia where I live - Queensland. A previous premier kicked out a lot of public servants for the same reason. When he was kicked out they had more higher level staff than before. Sort of makes you wonder doesn't it.

Thanks
Bill