Increased demand for STEM in the next 4 years?

[discountbrain]

Its common knowledge the biggest reason companies like MSFT want foreign tech people is they want to pay a lot less thus, leaving US workers unemployed. Also, there are some very restrictive work environments I know about that most Americans would likely find unacceptable.

 

[Dr Transport]

Its common knowledge the biggest reason companies like MSFT want foreign tech people is they want to pay a lot less thus, leaving US workers unemployed. Also, there are some very restrictive work environments I know about that most Americans would likely find unacceptable.

exactly what i said in post 11...

 

[jim mcnamara]

@StatGuy2000 - they don't have any kind of, um, filtering for new hires. Both positions were open, as I understand it, so it was lateral transfer.

But you are right. Normally there is trial period of 6 months on the job. At the end of that period after review the person becomes 'official'.

 

[StatGuy2000]

exactly what i said in post 11...

You know I keep hearing this quoted anecdotally that companies hire foreign workers for lower wages, keeping US workers unemployed. But is there actual evidence that this is actually happening, and to what extent this is happening in the US economy, at least for specifically for the US tech sector? Because I have my doubts about whether outsourcing has really contributed to that much job loss in the US in the tech sector specifically.

 

[Dr Transport]

You know I keep hearing this quoted anecdotally that companies hire foreign workers for lower wages, keeping US workers unemployed. But is there actual evidence that this is actually happening, and to what extent this is happening in the US economy, at least for specifically for the US tech sector? Because I have my doubts about whether outsourcing has really contributed to that much job loss in the US in the tech sector specifically.

Yes, I was laid off and my position was replaced by a lower paid foreign born programmer.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Yes, I was laid off and my position was replaced by a lower paid foreign born programmer.

I'm sorry to hear about your experiences. However, it's worth keeping in mind that this is just one data point. What I'm asking is more broadly throughout the US economy.

After all, yes, you were laid off, but presumably there would have been other opportunities that would be available (in theory or in practice) to you to pursue. For example, I've been laid off in the past (due to corporate restructuring leading to the loss of an entire department in Canada, with the work we've done being concentrated in the US and France), but my employer gave me and all others in my department a full year to find other employment, which I did so relatively easily (plus we were all given quite generous severance packages).

Of course, my experience is also just another isolated data point.

 

[gleem]

Because I have my doubts about whether outsourcing has really contributed to that much job loss in the US in the tech sector specifically

In a recent TV news segment it was reported that Southern California Electric Company replace its entire its entire IT department with Indian nationals.. 500 jobs.

http://www.computerworld.com/articl...rs-beyond-furious-over-h-1b-replacements.html

Evidence for investigating the magnitude of this issue

http://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-program/

How many time have you sought tech support for a US company and got a foreign voice at the other end?

 

[Dr Transport]

not the only data point, i know multiple people in multiple industries who were let go and replaced by foreign born workers making half or so of their predecessors for the exact same position.

I have been out of work for a year, no hits in almost 4 months on resumes submitted and I was told by one friend who wanted to hire me that the hiring manager told him that I wasn't under consideration because I was going to want too much money, even though I was a perfect fit for the position and recruited by the HR department.

 

[StatGuy2000]

In a recent TV news segment it was reported that Southern California Electric Company replace its entire its entire IT department with Indian nationals.. 500 jobs.

http://www.computerworld.com/articl...rs-beyond-furious-over-h-1b-replacements.html

Evidence for investigating the magnitude of this issue

http://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-program/

How many time have you sought tech support for a US company and got a foreign voice at the other end?

First of all, in many such cases, these are tech support positions that didn't even exist in the US. Second, I recall during the 90s (well before the major outsourcing period occurred) that within the software/IT industry there was such a severe shortage of people with computer science backgrounds that employers were forced to resort to "importing" workers from overseas (India being one major source, but also from China, Canada, etc.) And keep in mind that these immigrant workers were paid the same wages as American workers, since salaries weren't differentiated by national origin.

With the burst in the tech bubble in the early 2000s came job losses in the sector (as well as the outsourcing of work), but in many such instances, the first people who were laid off were immigrant workers. Also, with the outsourcing, what tended to happen was that many immigrant or expat workers (particularly from India) simply returned to their home countries to work at the outsourcing service companies. So I suspect that the unemployment rate among STEM individuals overall within the US may not necessarily have been impacted.

 

[StatGuy2000]

not the only data point, i know multiple people in multiple industries who were let go and replaced by foreign born workers making half or so of their predecessors for the exact same position.

I have been out of work for a year, no hits in almost 4 months on resumes submitted and I was told by one friend who wanted to hire me that the hiring manager told him that I wasn't under consideration because I was going to want too much money, even though I was a perfect fit for the position and recruited by the HR department.

Again, these are mere anecdotes. I'm a statistician -- data beats anecdotes. I'm not suggesting that outsourcing does not have any impact -- I'm questioning whether the impact is that severe when looking at the broader US labour market.

I should also add that in your case, the fact that you've been out of work for a year may be due to several factors, including age (age discrimination is a thing, especially because older workers are assumed to want higher salaries). Also, the question of your resume, sectors you are looking to work in (I know from your profile is in semiconductor physics, but not sure where specifically you were applying to), your ability to retrain/retool to work in other sectors, and how you are using your networks.

My advice (if you were seeking it from me) would be to speak to some form of career counselor to see if there might be ways to spruce up your resume (if you haven't done so already), or speak/talk to a recruiter for contract type jobs. Also to more fully utilize your networks (through LinkedIn, among other places).

 

[analogdesign]

I've been hearing a lot about how there "aren't enough STEM workers". My organization recently opened a position for an Electrical Engineer. We got 28 applications of which about 15 were qualified. Didn't seem like there weren't any candidates.

 

[gleem]

A 2012 study seems to definitely show that at that time we where significantly overproducing STEM graduates and at that time US companies were still trying to bring in large numbers of foreign workers because of a claimed shortage. Three years later some congressman where trying to expand the H-1B visa program still claiming a shortage. With the complaints that our economy is not expanding as it should and the predictions of many financial experts that the days of 4% GDP yearly expansion for the foreseeable future is over for at least 10 years one might conclude that jobs in general will be more scarce.

Usually in any business labor is the single most expensive cost center and the one that must be looked at to remain competitive. Right now this labor issue is addressed by outsourcing which we find politically unacceptable and automation which we strive for and will ultimately "solve" the labor cost issue but at the demise of labor. So in case you have not noticed it one of the objects of STEM is to improve productively which usually is at the expense of the labor market. Is then one of the last Hurrahs of a viable STEM workforce in robotics/AI? I think so. It will take a bit of time to reach this utopia perhaps another generation. So I would think disciplines relative to robotics, ME, EE, material science would be good place to start. Science and technologies related to AI including neuroscience, computer architecture, program language development. But these will be for the best and brightest. I left out biosciences and medicine for future STEM disciplines because we are already on a path to solving those problems because we have WATSON working on them as I write.

But what of the implementation of this technology. Those would hedge a bit about the overproduction of STEM graduates say that even if it is true that we are over producing STEM graduates that is not a bad thing since we need more people in our society that have the knowledge of these things. We have always had the expertise of the scientist to advise on the use or misuse of technology but it is the purviews of societies leaders to decide on the proper implementation of these technologies and that require understanding and appreciation of their benefits and risks We will need those that can wisely implement and manage the new issues produced by our lack of foresight.

 

[StatGuy2000]

gleem, sounds to me that you are deeply pessimistic about the state of the US and the world, and about the future prospects for employment among people. Would that be correct? (perhaps the fact that you are 75, as you state on your profile page, may colour your views)

 

[sa1988]

Outsourcing is a huge problem.

In the UK we've been complaining that a lot of major businesses have customer service call centres based in India, which is just a pain for having coherent conversations.

As far as tech goes, India has a billion people and vastly more English speakers than England itself, many of whom have good education. India has its own little silicone valley in the Bangalore area and, because of the low living costs of the country, tech roles can be hoovered up, and likely will be unless very tight protection laws are put on western organisations to prevent them from outsourcing.

Migration and labour outsourcing are the biggest risks to local prosperity - risks that can only be mitigated by laying proper laws. Otherwise employers will just carry on leaning towards whatever the cheapest option is. Such is the human 'capitalist' mindset.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Out of all discussion about STEM demand or STEM surplus in the US, it may be worth looking at the following May 2015 article from the BLS.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/stem-crisis-or-stem-surplus-yes-and-yes.htm

 

[TomServo]

Cheers, I'll look into design patterns - that's a thing I never knew about. I was wondering where a line can be drawn between 'knows coding' and 'can make programs', and I believe you may have pointed me in the right direction toward the answer.

I bought myself an Arduino a while ago which I got to grips with quite easily. It soon occurred to me that a Raspberry Pi may have been a better investment, but never mind.

Can't be doing any electives however as that's not quite how it works over here in Blighty, and I'm nearly done with my degree anyway!

BTW I recommend the book Head First Design Patterns as an intro to the subject.

 

[sa1988]

As far as tech goes, India has a billion people and vastly more English speakers than England itself, many of whom have good education. India has its own little silicone valley in the Bangalore area and, because of the low living costs of the country, tech roles can be hoovered up, and likely will be unless very tight protection laws are put on western organisations to prevent them from outsourcing.

Won't let me edit my previous post so as an update to the above paragraph: I know French software companies are relocating to Shanghai these days. On the plus side, they send their workers over too. But it probably won't be long before the Chinese government decides it needs to benefit local citizens more and stops granting the work visas. The CCP do a pretty good job when it comes to protectionism and general policies that put the people of China first.

 

[sa1988]

BTW I recommend the book Head First Design Patterns as an intro to the subject.

Cheers - just acquired myself a copy

 

[gleem]

gleem, sounds to me that you are deeply pessimistic about the state of the US and the world, and about the future prospects for employment among people. Would that be correct? (perhaps the fact that you are 75, as you state on your profile page, may colour your views

If by pessimism you mean do I think that there will be relatively fewer jobs (in the long run) then yes I am very pessimistic. As far as the color of my views of the future because of my age is concerned you may color them "better than yours". Didn't your parents tell you to pay attention to your elders?

Programming is considered one of the "trench" type STEM jobs like as "working in the trenches" sort of the pick and shovel of STEM jobs. And just like the pick and shovel we will probably see the end of programming jobs soon a big STEM mainstay. see http://www.newsweek.com/2014/06/06/computer-programming-dying-art-252618.html
.
I would say to those who want to go into STEM that yes there will be opportunities some of the type we have today and some that we have not yet dreamt .
When choosing this type of career I suggest that you examine your inventory of these qualities, skilled to execute, imagination to be a leader, commitment and confidence to allow you to remain in the game. And keep your eye on the direction technology is heading. In order to hit your target you may need to lead it.

There are and will be no guarantees. Good luck kids.

 

[StatGuy2000]

If by pessimism you mean do I think that there will be relatively fewer jobs (in the long run) then yes I am very pessimistic. As far as the color of my views of the future because of my age is concerned you may color them "better than yours". Didn't your parents tell you to pay attention to your elders?

Yes, my parents did tell me to pay attention to my "elders". Pay attention, not necessarily agree or accept.

I should also add that I'm 41 years old, so I'm hardly that young either. And I'm curious why you think your view of the future is "better than mine".

Programming is considered one of the "trench" type STEM jobs like as "working in the trenches" sort of the pick and shovel of STEM jobs. And just like the pick and shovel we will probably see the end of programming jobs soon a big STEM mainstay. see http://www.newsweek.com/2014/06/06/computer-programming-dying-art-252618.html
.

It's worth noting that the article you pointed to refers to "programming" as actual coding using a specific programming language. In this respect, I would agree that at some stage, assuming that the MUSE system discussed gets off the ground, that base-level programming may soon end. Although it is worth noting that if a researcher is trying to do something novel, programming will still need to be done, since all MUSE is going to do is link to and connect existing code correctly (which itself is a challenge that researchers in databases along with machine learning researchers will need to address).

Of course, it is also worth noting that we will still need people to actually come up with the designs and concepts of solutions, and to think of how to address such solutions algorithmically. So in this respect, important concepts in computer science will continue to be relevant.

I would say to those who want to go into STEM that yes there will be opportunities some of the type we have today and some that we have not yet dreamt .
When choosing this type of career I suggest that you examine your inventory of these qualities, skilled to execute, imagination to be a leader, commitment and confidence to allow you to remain in the game. And keep your eye on the direction technology is heading. In order to hit your target you may need to lead it.

There are and will be no guarantees. Good luck kids.

Agreed.

 

[Choppy]

Perhaps a little side-note but in the article that StatGuy linked to Fig. 1 plots some data on the number of PhDs a Tenure Track Faculty member will graduate.

The number that's often anecdotally assumed in discussions around here, I've noticed is that this is in the ballpark of 10. The data for "physical sciences" seems to put it at about 3. That's still > 1, which is consistent with the argument that we're collectively producing more PhDs than are required for academia. And since it's > 2, the probability that any given PhD will end up leaving academia is still greater than that of staying. But a value of 3 seems to indicate that the over-production of PhD is perhaps not as bad as is commonly portrayed.

 

[gleem]

From the summary of the article

Our central question is whether there is a “STEM crisis” or a “STEM surplus.” The answer is that both exist. Our analysis yields the following findings:

• The STEM labor market is heterogeneous. There are both shortages and surpluses of STEM workers, depending on the particular job market segment.
• In the academic job market, there is no noticeable shortage in any discipline. In fact, there are signs of an oversupply of Ph.D.’s vying for tenure-track faculty positions in many disciplines (e.g., biomedical sciences, physical sciences).
• In the government and government-related job sector, certain STEM disciplines have a shortage of positions at the Ph.D. level (e.g., materials science engineering, nuclear engineering) and in general (e.g., systems engineers, cybersecurity, and intelligence professionals) due to the U.S. citizenship requirement. In contrast, an oversupply of biomedical engineers is seen at the Ph.D. level, and there are transient shortages of electrical engineers and mechanical engineers at advanced-degree levels.
• In the private sector, software developers, petroleum engineers, data scientists, and those in skilled trades are in high demand; there is an abundant supply of biomedical, chemistry, and physics Ph.D.’s; and transient shortages and surpluses of electrical engineers occur from time to time.
• The geographic location of the position affects hiring ease or difficulty.

As our society relies further on technology for economic development and prosperity, the vitality of the STEM workforce will continue to be a cause for concern.

My take a way from the article, and it is not as optimistic as yours, is that the student should choose wisely in preparing for a STEM job. The currently most popular jobs might also be the most volatile especially if they have an economic or political impetus. for example there is a proposal to cut 50% of EPA jobs many of which are STEM types.. The Dept.. of Energy jobs have also been targeted for job reductions and they have an estimated 93,000 contractors.

No one has brought up the GIG economy scenario where the best you might expect is to work as a contractor for a couple of years then trying to find another. What percentage of STEM grads are capable of handling this? Not 100% I'm sure.

 

[sa1988]

Saw this today: https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=4532846

Essentially a small handful of British CompSci students saying the course doesn't at all turn someone into a programmer.

"With regards to most compsci grads not being able to code - it does apply to at least 60% of grads to be fair including myself."

 

[sa1988]

There are all these new coding boot camps popping up everywhere. I don't like how they are selling them as "guaranteed" job placement after 6 weeks of cramming curriculum. Don't get me wrong, some are good, but I can learn most of what I need online. I even taught my son how to make a website using Wordpress from a free tutorial http://howtostartablog.com/ and he loves it. He's blogging about what little boys blog about (games) and is now learning javascript and PHP.

My facebook feed keeps telling me I can learn Python in 21 hours.

The first comment on that advert is: "Why do people learn Python? Because they can't C."

Heh heh.