News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

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The discussion highlights the chaotic situation in Ukraine, questioning who truly controls the protests and the government amidst escalating violence, particularly in Kiev. It notes the deep cultural and political divisions within Ukraine, with significant pro-Russian sentiments in the east and pro-European aspirations in the west. The conversation reflects on the lack of strong U.S. support for the protesters compared to past interventions during the Orange Revolution. Participants express skepticism about the motivations behind the protests, suggesting they may be influenced by foreign interests and local radicals. The overall sentiment is one of uncertainty regarding the future of Ukraine, with concerns about potential power struggles and external influences.
  • #841
lisab said:
I don't discount Putin's previous threats because they were targeted at "just neighbors" - why do you?

A threat is a threat.

I'm drawing a distinction between Putin's previous military aggression against neighbors (Crimea, Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, the list getting long) with the like of little green men, and Russian threats with nuclear weapons since the Ukrainian invasion. I don't mean to diminish Russia's border countries, rather I mean to point that out that they are "just" the ones that have been attacked, no others so far. I dismiss neither (armed border incursions and nuclear threats), but they are not the same thing and require very different responses.
 
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  • #842
Meetings are taking place this weekend amongst Hollande, Merkel and Putin, with Biden, Poroshenko and various European Defense Ministers on the sidelines.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...s-Do-not-try-to-scare-Putin-warns-Merkel.html

Is there a Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis emerging that wants to ease sanctions and avoid weapons shipments to Ukraine? Are the US media, Congress and elements of the administration banging the drums for new weapons shipments? Somehow I don't see a united western position anymore.

Edit: Meanwhile, on the ground, a gritty narrative of the battle for Debaltseve, a strategic railway junction.
http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-ukrainian-forces-agree-humanitarian-corridor-082121426.html
 
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  • #843
Ukraine leader shows off captured Russian military IDs
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-leader-shows-off-captured-russian-military-ids-160048355.html

Of course, Russia denies Russian troops are in Ukraine. Or are they just advisors, or observers? :oldeyes:

Well - I suppose they could have taken a wrong turn in Albuquerque. It happened to Bugs Bunny all the time.I sure hope the EU and US don't agree to territorial cession to stop Russian aggression - and violation of Ukraine's sovereignty. I'm thinking a Fox commentator might be right that we need another Winston Churchill, not a bunch of Neville Chamberlains.One doesn't stand around and talk about fighting a raging fire. One fights the fire, extinguishs it, then talks about it.
 
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  • #844
Poroshenko is holding passports, which I am informed Russian soldiers are not required to possess. So I think the polite term for these troops is "volunteers".:cool:
proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fpp.vk.me%2Fc624122%2Fv624122565%2F17546%2FbE6QioUm2P0.jpg
 
  • #846
IMO, it's time to start thinking very clearly about whether or not we want total war with Russia.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/06/vladimir-putin-west-divisions-war-ukraine
Fear of Vladimir Putin grows in EU capitals amid spectre of ‘total war’
Analysis: That Angela Merkel has gone to Moscow speaks to the sudden gravity of the situation in east Ukraine

%2FPix%2Fpictures%2F2015%2F2%2F6%2F1423246312332%2Ff725db74-684d-4204-9e41-899fbe0cfc03-1020x612.jpe

President Vladimir Putin with Chancellor Angela Merkel and President François Hollande in Moscow for an urgent meeting over Ukraine. Photograph: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
Ian Traynor, Europe editor

Friday 6 February 2015 11.12 EST

In Brussels and other European capitals, the fear of Vladimir Putin is becoming palpable. The mood has changed in a matter of weeks from one of handwringing impotence over Ukraine to one of foreboding.

The anxiety is encapsulated in the sudden rush to Moscow by Angela Merkel and François Hollande. To senior figures closely involved in the diplomacy and policymaking over Ukraine, the Franco-German peace bid is less a hopeful sign of a breakthrough than an act of despair.

“There’s nothing new in their plan, just an attempt to stop a massacre,” said one senior official.

Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said a war between Russia and the west was now quite conceivable. A senior diplomat in Brussels, echoing the broad EU view, said arming the Ukrainians would mean war with Russia, a war that Putin would win.

Edit: Ukraine's currency has collapsed 50% in the last two days.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...s-currency-has-fallen-50-percent-in-two-days/
 
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  • #847
Russia warns US arms to Ukraine will cause 'colossal damage' to ties
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-us-arms-kiev-cause-colossal-damage-004307353.html

Obama's Ukraine policy at crossroads as fighting rages on
http://news.yahoo.com/obamas-ukraine-policy-crossroads-fighting-rages-004700222.html

WASHINGTON/MUNICH (Reuters) - Russian-backed rebels' violent offensive in eastern Ukraine leaves President Barack Obama with perplexing and urgent choices, but aides say he will exercise his typical caution in deciding his next move.

Should Obama provide lethal weaponry to the Western-backed Kiev government to staunch Europe's worst conflict in two decades? Many U.S. lawmakers and some of Obama's own advisors are calling for that step, but it risks igniting a proxy war with Russia and driving a wedge between Washington and western Europe.
Or wait until Russia has defact annexed eastern Ukraine? It's about Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. EU and US should have acted more carefully 2 or more years ago, before Russia entered Crimea. Now the risk too little and too late.Meanwhile - Merkel takes peace plan to Obama
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31279621

Obama, Merkel rally behind diplomacy in Ukraine conflict
http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-brief-obama-four-party-talks-ukraine-crisis-053358535.html

and EU delays sanctions by a week to support Ukraine peace talks
http://news.yahoo.com/eu-backs-ukraine-peace-drive-hawks-urge-no-110022139.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union delayed putting more Ukrainian separatists and Russians on its sanctions list on Monday to give a Franco-German peace plan for Ukraine time to work.
 
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  • #849
To end all discussions about cluster munitions. Soviet large-caliber MLRS usually carry cluster warheads. Any time any side uses such MLRS, they will employ cluster munitions, since they simply have no unitary warheads in storage.

Cluster munitions are not universally banned, even though it is often (incorrectly) claimed they are.

Here is today's video of Kramatorsk (held by Ukrainian forces) being hit by Smerch MLRS:

 
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  • #850
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States is to be blamed for Ukraine’s use of cluster bombs since it hasn’t provided the country with different weapons, US Senator John McCain, who serves as a Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services, told Sputnik on Thursday.

“I think that if we had provided them with the weapons they need, they wouldn’t have felt they had to use cluster bombs. So, it’s partially our fault,” McCain said.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150205/1017844947.html#ixzz3RM46bapW



Edit: Extremely ugly rumors persist on social media that 5000-6000 Ukraine troops are trapped in the Debaltseve pocket. If true, they would make great bargaining chips. If they are eliminated from the fight, this could imply the fall of Debaltseve within days, and perhaps the collapse of the entire Ukraine front line within weeks.​
 
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  • #851
Astronuc said:
EU and US should have acted more carefully 2 or more years ago, before Russia entered Crimea.
Acted "more carefully"? What can than possibly mean in terms of some tangible action?
 
  • #852
Dotini said:
WASHINGTON (Sputnik)
Posting quotes from a so called news outlet which is wholly owned by the Russian Federation is furthering propaganda.
 
  • #853
mheslep said:
Posting quotes from a so called news outlet which is wholly owned by the Russian Federation is furthering propaganda.

You're right. My faux pas. I'd delete it if I could.
 
  • #854
Putin gets a stern talking to from Obama.
Obama talks to leaders of Russia, Ukraine ahead of talks
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-talks-ukraine-leader-us-weighs-lethal-aid-170234077--politics.html The needs to be on the people in the regions affected. Their lives are affected by the insanity of others.
http://news.yahoo.com/life-under-shelling-eastern-ukraine-battle-survive-132207500.html
 
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  • #855
Astronuc said:
Russia warns US arms to Ukraine will cause 'colossal damage' to ties

Why should they care? They say they have no troops in the area. ;)
 
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  • #856
Astronuc said:
EU and US should have acted more carefully 2 or more years ago, before Russia entered Crimea.

I agree very much with this.
I'll go further and say that IMO Defense and CIA wanted no part of the action, and that it was the State Department in particular that acted so unwisely. It should have been realized that at the end of the day, Ukraine and Crimea mattered more to Russia than to the US and EU.
 
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  • #857
Dotini said:
it was the State Department in particular that acted so unwisely.
Both you and Astronuc apparently have strong opinions on some point which remains ambiguous. Acted how? What should have been done?
 
  • #858
Dear mheslep, thank you - I hope - for your question. Now I can only wish that my explanations are as strong as my opinion.:rolleyes:

First I would refer you to this wikipedia article for important background:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

My opinion that the US State Department acted unwisely is mainly for these reasons:
- Participated in organizing and funding protests and other activities leading to an overthrow of the elected government and subsequent revolution of Ukraine.
- Said revolution, though vigorous at first, was poorly thought out, fatally unconsummated and led to secession of Crimea, rebellion of eastern provinces and nearly broken and failed state status for Ukraine.
- Open-ended and quite unnecessary but very dangerous conflict looms with Russia, a partner we desperately need for solving so many other problems in the world.
- The parties pertinent to the revolution should have anticipated the response of Russia, but to our sorrow, they did not.
 
  • #859
Dotini said:
Dear mheslep, thank you - I hope - for your question. Now I can only wish that my explanations are as strong as my opinion.:rolleyes:

First I would refer you to this wikipedia article for important background:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

My opinion that the US State Department acted unwisely is mainly for these reasons:
- Participated in organizing and funding protests and other activities leading to an overthrow of the elected government and subsequent revolution of Ukraine.
- Said revolution, though vigorous at first, was poorly thought out, fatally unconsummated and led to secession of Crimea, rebellion of eastern provinces and nearly broken and failed state status for Ukraine.
- Open-ended and quite unnecessary but very dangerous conflict looms with Russia, a partner we desperately need for solving so many other problems in the world.
- The parties pertinent to the revolution should have anticipated the response of Russia, but to our sorrow, they did not.
I see two main possible explanations:
1) There were first happy Ukrainians. Then US gov hired hundred of thousand actors to protest on streets and oust their president. Stunningly, after such logistic miracle the USA decided to abandon its new ally and was unwilling to provide much cheaper aid. What an outraging waste of taxpayers money spent on the prior investment.
2) Ukrainians, angry because of crisis and corruption, made the protest that after police brutality evolved to revolution on their own, to some surprise of all including Yanukovych and all main powers. Later Russians invaded, EU/USA mostly ignored this problem, while you just from some weird reasons believed to Russian propaganda.
 
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  • #860
Dotini said:
Dear mheslep, thank you - I hope - for your question. Now I can only wish that my explanations are as strong as my opinion.:rolleyes:

First I would refer you to this wikipedia article for important background:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

My opinion that the US State Department acted unwisely is mainly for these reasons:
- Participated in organizing and funding protests and other activities leading to an overthrow of the elected government and subsequent revolution of Ukraine.

There is no evidence State Dept was in any way involved in organizing the uprising. My guess they had no idea it will erupt.
 
  • #861
I only know what i read in the newspapers..

While the Putin regime’s actions are unfair to Ukraine and have shocked the West, they reflect Great Power sensitivity to borders and demand for respect. U.S. and European leaders can forever assert that NATO poses no threat to Russia, but Moscow policymakers are not stupid. The Washington-dominated alliance was created to contain the Soviet Union and was extended up to the borders of the Soviet-successor state, Russia, after the end of the Cold War. NATO incorporated most of Moscow’s former allies which had provided a buffer to the traditional invasion route from Europe. Then Washington led NATO to dismember Serbia, an historic Russian ally.

Russia is the only serious nation against which NATO is directed. The war-hawks who dominate Washington’s foreign policy discourse made their designs clear. For instance, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) spoke of “creating a democratic noose around Putin’s Russia,” which he equated with flying “the NATO flag as strongly as I could around Putin.”

Obviously the alliance did not force Moscow to act in Ukraine. But Western attempts to dominate border territories historically part of Imperial Russia as well as Soviet Union looked particularly threatening to many Russians. Jack Matlock, former U.S. ambassador to the U.S.S.R., wrote of a “cycle of dismissive actions by the United States met by overreactions by Russia [that] has so poisoned the relationship that the sort of quiet diplomacy used to end the Cold War was impossible when the crisis in Ukraine burst upon the world’s consciousness.”

Worse, in Ukraine the West helped fund the “Orange Revolution” which brought to power Viktor Yushchenko, a virulent critic of Russia—which he accused (and later recanted) of trying to poison him—who wanted his nation to join NATO. The next president hailed from Ukraine’s pro-Russian east, but maintained Kiev’s distance from Moscow and won Russian subsidies for merely delaying his signature on a trade agreement with Europe. Then European states and America backed protestors demanding that the government accept an EU trade agreement that required painful reforms and placed Europe before Russia economically.

Next the West endorsed a sometimes violent street revolution backed by nationalists and neo-fascists against a democratically elected leader. Carl Gershman, head of the Washington-funded National Endowment for Democracy, called Ukraine “the biggest prize” and talked of that nation’s role as a tool to oust Putin. The Obama administration’s Victoria Nuland discussed with America’s ambassador to Ukraine who Washington wanted to take power in Kiev. Russians didn’t have to be paranoid to view this policy as hostile to their nation’s interests. Observed Ruslan Pukhov, a former Moscow defense official now with the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies: “The West underestimates the importance of the Ukrainian issue for Russia and the role of Ukraine as a colossal destabilizing factor in Western-Russian relations.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougban...in-ukraine-is-not-americas-business-part-one/

If not state, then who?
 
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  • #862
jim hardy said:

Article paints mostly correct picture how Russia sees things,
BUT
somehow it makes it look like Russian position is logical and should be "respected". For example:

"Worse, in Ukraine the West helped fund the “Orange Revolution” which brought to power Viktor Yushchenko"

"Worse"? As in, "It was a mistake"? That is, "West should not be backing people trying to get rid of corruption and tyranny"? Am I getting this right, this guy says West should throw other people under the bus simply to placate Russian paranoia? Will he be willing to be a citizen of some nation to be thrown under the bus in a similar situation? I suspect not!
 
  • #863
Nikkom's point that the piece is written to persuade is right enough.
somehow it makes it look like Russian position is logical and should be "respected".
What is Russian logic?
I still think this goes back several years , to Russia not wanting US missiles on its border
just as we didn't want Russian missiles on ours in 1962 Cuba, (which I'm old enough to remember)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7241470.stm
Last Updated: Tuesday, 12 February 2008, 18:11 GMT http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif
Russia in Ukraine missile threat
_44422440_russiars18ap203b.jpg

Russia has warned that a new arms race is unfolding around the world
Russia has said it may target its missiles at Ukraine if its neighbour joins Nato and accepts the deployment of the US missile defence shield.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made the comments in Moscow alongside Ukraine's President, Viktor Yushchenko.

Mr Putin has condemned US plans to include Poland and the Czech Republic in its missile defence shield.
Crafty statesmen on both sides twist and reshape public perception of the real issue to their advantage, good little propagandists that they are,
and i don't trust any of 'em.

Of course i'd lend my garden hose to a neighbor whose house is on fire
but i wouldn't use the occasion to put my gun emplacement on his roof, pointed at HIS neighbor .
That his neighbor is a wife-beater is a different issue.

old jim
 
  • #864
jim hardy said:
Of course i'd lend my garden hose to a neighbor whose house is on fire
but i wouldn't use the occasion to put my gun emplacement on his roof, pointed at HIS neighbor .
That his neighbor is a wife-beater is a different issue.

old jim

Your analogy is subtly wrong.

His neighbor is not a wife beater. His neighbor has a long history of attacking him, and other neighbors. Helping them to defend themselves is not a wrong thing to do.

Finland, three Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Czech Republic _all_ dislike Russia. Most of them (except Finland... for now) did not merely agree to join NATO - they _rushed_ to join it as soon as they could. This can't possibly be a coincidence. Even if you did not study the history of this region in detail, just this fact alone tells you a lot.
 
  • #865
I don't think it is so wrong.

I have to expect my neighbor's neighbor to act in his interest as he perceives it
even if he is a ruffian.
If Kiev agrees to sign up to Nato, it could host US anti-missile defences on Ukrainian soil.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/12/russia.ukraine
That seems to be a rough spot .
Does Putin remember Stalin? Surely he remembers when Stalin's lackeys were still in power.

 
  • #866
Dotini said:
I can only wish that my explanations are as strong as my opinion.

Dotini, this is truly brilliant! Would that all of us posting in Current Events be able to post explanations as strong as our opinions! :D
 
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  • #868
nikkkom said:
Your analogy is subtly wrong.

His neighbor is not a wife beater. His neighbor has a long history of attacking him...
A long history that ended - even reversed - 60 years ago. The reversal of which is why NATO exists!
 
  • #869
jim hardy said:
I only know what i read in the newspapers..
So lect me run a simple fact check:

While the Putin regime’s actions are unfair to Ukraine and have shocked the West, they reflect Great Power sensitivity to borders and demand for respect.
For example - why should it be a military threat? Do you imagine unprovoked NATO invading nuclear armed Russia?

Moreover NATO needing to open Ukrainian front and not being enough to attack from Baltic States, Alaska, Turkey, Japan or just from sea coast at Arctic ocean?

Ukraine is crucial in such highly probable scenario, isn't it?
NATO incorporated most of Moscow’s former allies which had provided a buffer to the traditional invasion route from Europe.
Allies? Author should either run a fact check or stop speaking misleading language.
It surprising to me, all my life, I thought that I lived in a formerly subjugated country

But Western attempts to dominate border territories historically part of Imperial Russia as well as Soviet Union looked particularly threatening to many Russians.
So local people are s****** for ever because were already conquered by Russian more than once and that makes new conquest justifiable?

I'm curious would a bandit that already robbed you a few times, be somewhat entitled to rob you once more? (following that logic, it would be less wrong than robbing a new guy)

Anyway, do you live in territory that was historically part of British empire? You don't feel obliged to pay some back taxes to British monarch, do you?

Worse, in Ukraine the West helped fund the “Orange Revolution” which brought to power Viktor Yushchenko, a virulent critic of Russia—which he accused (and later recanted) of trying to poison him—who wanted his nation to join NATO. The next president hailed from Ukraine’s pro-Russian east, but maintained Kiev’s distance from Moscow and won Russian subsidies for merely delaying his signature on a trade agreement with Europe. Then European states and America backed protestors demanding that the government accept an EU trade agreement that required painful reforms and placed Europe before Russia economically.
So many weasel words...
"helped to fund"? So it means anyway that it generally speaking financed locally? Does it mention that in the same time Russia was mending in Ukrainian affairs even more?

"who wanted his nation to join NATO"
Another weasel word. Was it part of any real political agenda, while this idea had microscopic support in Ukraine?

"backed protestors"
Orally - by making a few speeches and trying to mediate a resolution. Sounds impressive, comparing to dominating hypothesis that it was Russia who hired (a) sniper(s) to turn protest into a blood bath.

"painful reforms"
Like fighting corruption. Or stopping market distorting subsidies. Sounds quite sinister.
 
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  • #870
russ_watters said:
A long history that ended - even reversed - 60 years ago. The reversal of which is why NATO exists!

You remember wrong. USSR ended its occupation of Baltic countries not 60, but merely 20 years ago. Warsaw pact countries too, since they only "technically" weren't ruled by occupation government, but anytime they tried to elect somebody "wrong", Russian tanks rolled in. Czech Republic, 1968. Rings any bells?
 

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