News Is Ebola's Exponential Spread Uncontainable?

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Ebola is currently experiencing exponential growth in new infections, raising concerns about containment efforts. With an estimated 125 new cases daily, many believe the actual numbers are underreported, particularly in West Africa. The outbreak remains largely confined to this region, but increased mobility poses risks of spreading to larger cities, which could exacerbate the situation. There is speculation that the outbreak could persist for years unless a vaccine or effective treatment is developed. Quarantine measures are seen as the best defense against further spread, especially if the virus reaches densely populated areas.
  • #31
Ebola patient in Dallas struggling to survive, says CDC head
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-patient-dallas-turns-critical-no-u-cases-000058624.html

DALLAS/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was fighting for his life at a Dallas hospital on Sunday and appeared to be receiving none of the experimental medicines for the virus, a top U.S. health official said.
. . . .
Frieden said doses of the experimental medicine ZMapp were "all gone" and that the drug, produced by San Diego-based Mapp Biopharmaceutical, is "not going to be available anytime soon."

Asked about a second experimental drug, made by Canada's Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corp, he said it "can be quite difficult for patients to take."
. . . .
 
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  • #32
Madrid (AFP) - A Spanish nurse has contracted Ebola after treating two patients who died from the disease at a Madrid hospital, the government said Monday, in the first known case of transmission outside of Africa.
. . .
The woman was part of a medical team at Madrid's La Paz-Carlos III hospital that treated two elderly Spanish missionaries who died of Ebola shortly after they were repatriated from Africa.

She had gone on holiday the day after the second patient died on September 25, Madrid's primary healthcare director, Antonio Alemany, said at a news conference, without specifying where she had traveled to.
http://news.yahoo.com/first-outside-africa-nurse-spain-hospital-contracts-ebola-174043185.html

I wish her a speedy recovery, and I hope none of her contacts were infected. I would expect authorities will trace her route on holiday and since.

I would imagine her husband is at risk.
 
  • #33
Dallas Ebola patient receives experimental drug from North Carolina drugmaker
http://news.yahoo.com/drugmaker-provides-experimental-drug-ebola-173354015.html
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A North Carolina drugmaker is providing its experimental antiviral drug to a Dallas patient being treated for Ebola, an emergency step authorized by the Food and Drug Administration.

Officials at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital said Monday that their patient, Thomas Eric Duncan, is in critical condition and being treated with brincidofovir, an oral medicine developed by Chimerix Inc.

Nigeria contains Ebola – and US officials want to know more
https://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-contains-ebola-us-officials-want-know-more-174923144.html

US teams are headed to Nigeria to learn about its success in using 'contact tracing' – a significant practical step that limited the spread of the virus.
. . .
Since July 20, the day Nigeria’s so-called “Patient Zero” arrived in Lagos, officials have recorded a total of only 19 cases, with no new cases since Aug. 31. Last week, on the same day the US confirmed its first case of Ebola, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) proclaimed that Nigeria had stopped its outbreak.
. . .
Ebola outbreak "pretty much contained" in Senegal and Nigeria
https://news.yahoo.com/ebola-outbreak-pretty-much-contained-senegal-nigeria-063733354.html
 
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  • #35
It seems I missed this on my Facebook news feed (posted about an hour ago by Fox News):
Breaking News: A second person in contact with the Dallas Ebola patient who died this morning is now exhibiting symptoms and signs of the disease.
 
  • #36
Europe is expecting more cases
http://news.yahoo.com/spains-ebola-case-wont-last-europe-152409340.html and - Ebola patient's death renews questions about care
http://news.yahoo.com/1st-ebola-patient-diagnosed-us-dead-152433429.html

Early diagnosis and treatment is critical to survival of those is and to prevent further spread of the disease.
 
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  • #37
Spain blames Ebola infection on human error as nurse worsens
http://news.yahoo.com/spanish-nurse-worsens-madrid-blames-infection-human-error-131914936.html
A British man showing symptoms of the Ebola virus died on Thursday in Macedonia, where authorities sealed off his hotel, keeping another Briton and hotel staff inside.
Showing symptoms, but apparently not confirmed.Update: Dead Briton in Macedonia did not have Ebola: official
http://news.yahoo.com/dead-briton-macedonia-did-not-ebola-official-173056206.html
 
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  • #38
Astronuc said:
Spain blames Ebola infection on human error as nurse worsens
http://news.yahoo.com/spanish-nurse-worsens-madrid-blames-infection-human-error-131914936.html
And "a stunning series of lapses" in protocol when diagnosing and treating her: http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2014/10/09/pkg-soares-spain-ebola-mistakes.cnn.html

And it was exactly the same story for our Ebola patient in Texas. This worries me. A person dying of Ebola at home in a remote villiage in Africa comes into contact with a limited number of people: he/she isn't taken to a large facility packed with new potential victims to infect. Western medical care is supposed to be able to handle Ebola, but we're failing miserably in our firsts tests. What if our better medical care is just better enough to be dangerous? I guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

Obama says Ebola is a national security issue. I have seen no evidence that those words mean anything. The CDC should be putting-out training materials and protocols and all hospitals should be training their staff on the proper protocols. And if the CDC doesn't have the manpower or fudning, it should be given to them. The military should be enlisted if needed -- it has the ability to mobilize quickly and many groups have specialized biohazard (bio warfare) training.
 
  • #39
russ_watters said:
And it was exactly the same story for our Ebola patient in Texas. This worries me. A person dying of Ebola at home in a remote villiage in Africa comes into contact with a limited number of people: he/she isn't taken to a large facility packed with new potential victims to infect. Western medical care is supposed to be able to handle Ebola, but we're failing miserably in our firsts tests. What if our better medical care is just better enough to be dangerous? I guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

Obama says Ebola is a national security issue. I have seen no evidence that those words mean anything. The CDC should be putting-out training materials and protocols and all hospitals should be training their staff on the proper protocols. And if the CDC doesn't have the manpower or funding, it should be given to them. The military should be enlisted if needed -- it has the ability to mobilize quickly and many groups have specialized biohazard (bio warfare) training.
Indeed, it is worrisome that we're finding the 'system' unprepared.

Apparently, we're waiting for the appointment or approval of a new Surgeon General.

I'm not sure what power the CDC has with respect to ensuring the nation is prepared for such a disease.

Nevertheless, here is the CDC page - http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/

Supposedly, the US is prepared -
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/patient-management-us-hospitals.html
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/clinician-information-us-healthcare-settings.html

I guess medical staff now have to ask any patient with fever, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, if they have been to west Africa, or had contact with someone from west Africa, or particularly the various nations involved: Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and possibly now Côte d'Ivoire.
 
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  • #40
http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ad9e76-4fb2-11e4-8c24-487e92bc997b_story.html
“The speed at which things are moving on the ground, it’s hard for people to get their minds around. People don’t understand the concept of exponential growth,” said Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Exponential growth in the context of three weeks means: ‘If I know that X needs to be done, and I work my butt off and get it done in three weeks, it’s now half as good as it needs to be.’ ”
...
As the number of infections increases, so does the possibility that a person with Ebola will carry it to another country. This is known as an export.

“So we had two exports in the first 2,000 patients,” Frieden said in a recent interview. “Now we’re going to have 20,000 cases, how many exports are we going to have?”
The numbers are terrifying.
 
  • #41
There may be an export in Brazil. A man from Guinea traveled to Brazil and is now in isolation.

Meanwhile - "Thomas Eric Duncan's temperature spiked to 103 degrees during the hours of his initial visit to an emergency room — a fever that was flagged with an exclamation point in the hospital's record-keeping system, his medical records show." And he was sent home?!

http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-patient-arrived-er-103-degree-fever-160922028.html

Along the lines of Russ's comment - Ebola crisis reveals massive disparities in U.S. hospital preparedness
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-outbrea...-in-u-s--hospital-preparedness-214729813.htmlAnd - don't joke about Ebola at an airport or on a plane -
https://gma.yahoo.com/looks-ebola-scare-plane-004600681--abc-news-topstories.html
 
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  • #42
Nations step up measures to stem worsening Ebola outbreak
http://news.yahoo.com/spanish-ebola-nurse-better-state-talking-111534883.html

Spanish Ebola victim conscious and sitting unaided
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-monitoring-rises-spain-tries-contain-health-crisis-113329659.html
Apparently the nurse is holding on.Congressmen went to Liberia a month before the first Ebola death in West Africa
http://news.yahoo.com/two-congressm...rst-ebola-death-in-west-africa-202855268.html
An example of the bipartisanship we need.But - Ebola toll passes 4,000 as fears grow worldwide
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-death-toll-hits-4-033-172745850.html
 
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  • #43
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  • #44
Health worker 2nd in US to test positive for Ebola
http://news.yahoo.com/state-health-officials-2nd-ebola-case-texas-102955708.html
DALLAS (AP) — A Texas health care worker who was in full protective gear while providing hospital care for an Ebola patient who later died has tested positive for the virus and is in stable condition, health officials said Sunday. If the preliminary diagnosis is confirmed, it would be the first known case of the disease being contracted or transmitted in the U.S.

CDC: Protocol breach in treating Ebola patient
http://news.yahoo.com/cdc-protocol-breach-treating-ebola-patient-133253723--politics.html

So hospitals and the US healthcare system aren't necessarily prepared for an infectious disease like Ebola.
 
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  • #45
Astronuc said:
Health worker 2nd in US to test positive for Ebola
http://news.yahoo.com/state-health-officials-2nd-ebola-case-texas-102955708.html
"A Texas health care worker who was in full protective gear while providing hospital care for an Ebola patient who later died has tested positive for the virus and is in stable condition, health officials said Sunday."

??
 
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  • #46
zoki85 said:
"A Texas health care worker who was in full protective gear while providing hospital care for an Ebola patient who later died has tested positive for the virus and is in stable condition, health officials said Sunday."

??
The hospital lied.
 
  • #47
Their full protective gear is a joke. Full protective gear allows for complete decontamination of the gear before removing the gear.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/texas-health-worker-with/1411424.html

It looks like an apron over a scrub suit. The military has a lot of surplus CBR suits.

This is full protection gear a person can take a shower in a concentrated chlorine solution or any decontamination fluid in one of these suits.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/kjtiii_cos/2507091873/in/set-72157605150146296

Modern biosafety level 4 suits. Click on biosafety level 4 on left.

http://www.wolfhazmat.de/indexus.htm
 
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  • #48
I'm uncomfortable with the amount of confidence that the CDC and TV ebola experts have on the world's ability to contain this. My guess, is that this is a new strain and its characteristics are poorly understood. Also, the virus has been spreading among people for 11 months now, so it has had some time to evolve within human populations.

We don't know how efficiently it spreads, and we don't know how many carriers out there are asymptomatic. I have read that asymptomatic ebola hosts don't spread the disease. However, I suspect this was characteristic of previous ebola outbreaks and it has not yet been observed with this strain. Hopefully other countries will be able to repeat Nigeria's successful containment. SARS was airborne, and the world was able to contain it. On the other hand, ebola's incubation period is twice that of SARS, and the comparison is not entirely a valid one.
 
  • #51
dimensionless said:
My guess, is that this is a new strain

New strain? On what basis?
 
  • #52
  • #53
Astronuc said:
That blog cites another blog - http://daviddobbs.net/smoothpebbles/our-ebola-response-shows-our-true-colors-aint-pretty/

Mostly a catalog of failures in the system, which had been proclaimed as prepared.

The first blog also states;

Some of us suspect the Dallas patient was not admitted in part because he was uninsured. He was inexplicably and irrationally sent home with antibiotics for a presumed viral infection, even though he should have been considered an obvious risk.
 
  • #54
dimensionless said:
I'm uncomfortable with the amount of confidence that the CDC and TV ebola experts have on the world's ability to contain this. My guess, is that this is a new strain and its characteristics are poorly understood. Also, the virus has been spreading among people for 11 months now, so it has had some time to evolve within human populations.

We don't know how efficiently it spreads, and we don't know how many carriers out there are asymptomatic. I have read that asymptomatic ebola hosts don't spread the disease. However, I suspect this was characteristic of previous ebola outbreaks and it has not yet been observed with this strain. Hopefully other countries will be able to repeat Nigeria's successful containment. SARS was airborne, and the world was able to contain it. On the other hand, ebola's incubation period is twice that of SARS, and the comparison is not entirely a valid one.
It has been proven that ebola is not an airborn virus. They are still trying to determine contagion, especially in light of the Dallas nurse's diagnosis. There is no need to speculate about a new strain, they are still figuring out the current and only one.
 
  • #55
About 70 hospital staffers cared for Ebola patient
http://news.yahoo.com/70-hospital-staffers-cared-ebola-patient-224521642.html

U.S. needs to rethink Ebola infection controls, says CDC chief
http://news.yahoo.com/u-needs-rethink-ebola-infection-controls-says-cdc-005533255.htmlThe fact that Duncan was sent home with a 103 F fever is mind boggling. He was given antibiotics for an apparent viral infection, for which antibiotics would be ineffective. If the fever was related to a bacterial infection, then he should have been hospitalized on the spot.
 
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  • #56
Well, if it was viral, no antibiotics should have been prescribed. If it was bacterial, then tests should have been performed, but he had no insurance and a temp of 103F is not that uncommon or life threatening that would require them to treat him in an ER. A normal doctor's office or accute care clinic would have been correct. That it turned out to be ebola is what makes it newsworthy. The only time I was admitted to a hospital *with a temperature* was 105F and I became unconscious for 3 days, and I had insurance.

In this case, the screw up was his "history", that should have raised an immediate red flag.
 
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  • #57
Do animals get sick from ebola? How does first patient get infected?
 
  • #58
zoki85 said:
Do animals get sick from ebola? How does first patient get infected?
The virus apparently resides in some animals (e.g., bats, . . . . ?) in the African wild. People capture those animals for food. People who eat contaminated 'bush meat' will contract the virus, and they can spread it to others.

The number of deaths due to Ebola now stands at 4447
http://news.yahoo.com/10-000-ebola-cases-per-week-could-seen-124410379.html
In Berlin, a U.N. medical worker infected with Ebola in Liberia died despite "intensive medical procedures." The St. Georg hospital in Leipzig said Tuesday that the 56-year-old man, whose name has not been released, died overnight of the infection.

The man tested positive for Ebola on Oct. 6, prompting Liberia's U.N. peacekeeping mission to place 41 other staff members under "close medical observation."

He arrived in Leipzig for treatment on Oct. 9. The hospital's chief executive, Dr. Iris Minde, said at the time there was no risk of infection for other people, since he was kept in a secure isolation ward specially equipped with negative pressure rooms that are hermetically sealed.

He was the third Ebola patient to be flown to Germany for treatment. The first man recovered and returned home to Senegal. A Uganda aid worker is still being treated in Frankfurt.
 
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  • #59
Evo said:
... There is no need to speculate about a new strain, they are still figuring out the current and only one.
There are 5 species though:

Ebola virus disease (WHO)
Fact sheet N°103
Updated September 2014
The virus family Filoviridae includes 3 genera: Cuevavirus, Marburgvirus, and Ebolavirus. There are 5 species that have been identified: Zaire, Bundibugyo, Sudan, Reston and Taï Forest. The first 3, Bundibugyo ebolavirus, Zaire ebolavirus, and Sudan ebolavirus have been associated with large outbreaks in Africa. The virus causing the 2014 west African outbreak belongs to the Zaire species. ​

I just tallied up the mortality rate for 4 of the 5 species since the 1978 thru 2012. The Reston species is not listed.

Species ___ Mortality rate _ Total Cases
Bundibugyo _ 32.0% __________ 206
Sudan ______ 53.8% __________ 792
Taï Forest _100.0% ____________ 1
Zaire ______ 79.1% _________ 1388​


Unfortunately, this is the Zaire species we are dealing with now.
 
  • #60
And, we have apparently gone from under-precaution, to over-precaution:

Ebola fears: La. waste facility won't take Dallas man's incinerated belongings
October 13, 2014
NEW ORLEANS - A Louisiana waste disposal facility said Monday it would not accept the ash from the incineration of a Texas Ebola victim's belongings, at least not until state officials agree that doing so would pose no threat to the public.
...
Veolia officials did not return calls for comment Monday. CWM said it was informed by Veolia that the materials had been decontaminated before Veolia accepted them and burned them at 2,100 degrees Fahrenheit.
​
2,100°F is the melting point of Iron. (ref)
That would make it quite the hyperthermophile, if it could withstand that temperature.

Current record: 251°F for for Methanopyrus kandleri.
 

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