News Is Ebola's Exponential Spread Uncontainable?

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Ebola is currently experiencing exponential growth in new infections, raising concerns about containment efforts. With an estimated 125 new cases daily, many believe the actual numbers are underreported, particularly in West Africa. The outbreak remains largely confined to this region, but increased mobility poses risks of spreading to larger cities, which could exacerbate the situation. There is speculation that the outbreak could persist for years unless a vaccine or effective treatment is developed. Quarantine measures are seen as the best defense against further spread, especially if the virus reaches densely populated areas.
  • #61
So how many time have we head "breach of protocol?" What is the CDC protocol and why hasn't anyone demonstrated it.?

If it is like this video it is pathetic.

http://khon2.com/2014/10/13/what-doctors-wear-to-treat-ebola-patients/
 
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  • #62
Feds could have done more in Dallas Ebola case, CDC director says
http://news.yahoo.com/feds-should-h...-ebola-case--cdc-director-says-214128692.html

From now on, Frieden said, the CDC will rush a team of infectious disease specialists to assist U.S. hospitals that confirm having a case of the deadly Ebola virus.

“We will put a team on the ground within hours with some of the world's leading experts in how to take care of and protect health care workers from Ebola infection,” Frieden said. “I wish we had put a team like this on the ground the day the first patient was diagnosed.”

Nurse with Ebola, in Dallas, doing well.
http://news.yahoo.com/texas-nurse-contracted-ebola-understood-risks-153314500.html

German hospital: UN worker dies of Ebola
http://news.yahoo.com/german-hospital-un-worker-dies-ebola-082155030.html Obama And CDC Sued Over Ebola Epidemic
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-cdc-sued-over-ebola-epidemic-120000465.html
 
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  • #64
In re Protocol. Radiation workers are regularly retrained and re-qualified on removal of Anti-C PPE. A violation of those protocols after working in highly contaminated areas is quite apparent on exit surveys or internal monitoring. A dress-out for a highly contaminated wet work area easily takes an hour (Anti-C's, double liquid impervious, air-fed/respirator) and a proper undress takes as long, longer with the surveys.

I have read medical attendants' ("nurses") comments complaining of the fifteen minutes for dress-out.

I did close-out inspection and certification of radioactive liquid holding tanks three times in my career. I also dried reactor vessel shield water (saturated K2CrO4) tanks for my experience in wet work.

This late: http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-...e-Told-to-Call-Authorities-for-Ebola-Protocol
 
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  • #65
Have people never played quarantine before? It's absolutely ridiculous staff that were working on Duncan were allowed to travel without a short period of quarantine in their own home. It's a matter of national security, now the CDC is looking for over 100+ more people who make have had contact with the 2nd nurse now infected with Ebola. One person can easily lie, get into this country, and spread Ebola. How many other people are we letting in every single day from Ebola hotspots? We also sent hundreds of troops to those areas that will be coming home soon, how many of them will return infected?

Apparently Ebola isn't as easily contained as we all thought it would be, even though we 'are a 1st world country with a reliable health care system'. Do we really need to unnecessarily push our entire health care system to a breaking point just to test it out?
 
  • #66
gravenewworld said:
Have people never played quarantine before? It's absolutely ridiculous staff that were working on Duncan were allowed to travel without a short period of quarantine in their own home. It's a matter of national security, now the CDC is looking for over 100+ more people who make have had contact with the 2nd nurse now infected with Ebola. One person can easily lie, get into this country, and spread Ebola. How many other people are we letting in every single day from Ebola hotspots? We also sent hundreds of troops to those areas that will be coming home soon, how many of them will return infected?

Apparently Ebola isn't as easily contained as we all thought it would be, even though we 'are a 1st world country with a reliable health care system'. Do we really need to unnecessarily push our entire health care system to a breaking point just to test it out?

To expand on your post.

The CDC said the nurse flew on Frontier Airlines Flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth on Oct. 13. She first reported to the hospital with a low-grade fever on the morning of Oct. 14 and was immediately placed into an isolation unit.

Public Health workers will begin interviewing the 132 passengers on Flight 1143 immediately.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ealth-care-worker-ebola-second-case/17290575/
 
  • #67
gravenewworld said:
Have people never played quarantine before? It's absolutely ridiculous staff that were working on Duncan were allowed to travel without a short period of quarantine in their own home. It's a matter of national security, now the CDC is looking for over 100+ more people who make have had contact with the 2nd nurse now infected with Ebola. One person can easily lie, get into this country, and spread Ebola. How many other people are we letting in every single day from Ebola hotspots? We also sent hundreds of troops to those areas that will be coming home soon, how many of them will return infected?

Apparently Ebola isn't as easily contained as we all thought it would be, even though we 'are a 1st world country with a reliable health care system'. Do we really need to unnecessarily push our entire health care system to a breaking point just to test it out?

I think you might want to step back and take a deep breath. We should be more afraid of the common flu than Ebola. In addition, anytime we send our troops to foreign places, we have a risk of importing disease from the region. Finally, ebola is more of a risk to health care workers than airplane passengers. They have to deal directly in bodily fluids, and they must be rigorous about decontamination afterwards. These nurses need to work in pairs, and they need to follow checklists a lot. Some of these mistakes has been caused by the lack of checklists. For example, asking someone if they have traveled recently to Africa should probably be on the checklist.

Personally, I'm more afraid of the fear of Ebola than I am Ebola itself.
 
  • #68
Flight 1143 was obviously a *return* flight for the nurse. What about the *outbound* flight to Cleveland? I assume CDC assumes no symptoms were apparent at that point, so Ebola was not contagious at that point?
 
  • #69
They experts keep saying that Ebola is hard to catch but I have heard no expert even mentioned the following two things.

The virus can survive several hours in a dried state on doorknobs or countertops.

If the fluid remains wet and at room temperature it can survive for days outside the body.
http://kfor.com/2014/10/15/video-the-messy-truth-about-getting-ebola/

We seem to have a very erratic learning curve with this disease.
 
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  • #70
edward said:
They experts keep saying that Ebola is hard to catch but I have heard no expert even mentioned the following two things.

http://kfor.com/2014/10/15/video-the-messy-truth-about-getting-ebola/

We seem to have a very erratic learning curve with this disease.
Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C)http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote52 http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote61. One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote61. In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20 and 250C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of virus reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa) http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote53. When dried in tissue culture media onto glass and stored at 4 °C, Zaire ebolavirus survived for over 50 days http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote61. This information is based on experimental findings only and not based on observations in nature. This information is intended to be used to support local risk assessments in a laboratory setting.

A study on transmission of ebolavirus from fomites in an isolation ward concludes that the risk of transmission is low when recommended infection control guidelines for viral hemorrhagic fevers are followed http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote64. Infection control protocols included decontamination of floors with 0.5% bleach daily and decontamination of visibly contaminated surfaces with 0.05% bleach as necessary.

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php
 
  • #71
Dallas nurses cite sloppy conditions in Ebola care
http://news.yahoo.com/dallas-nurses-cite-sloppy-conditions-ebola-care-042120774.html

https://www.yahoo.com/health/ebola-what-does-it-do-inside-the-body-ebola-100013486857.html

Obama: Feds must tackle Ebola 'in a much more aggressive way'
http://news.yahoo.com/obama--govern...-in-a-much-more-aggressive-way-221014200.htmlSecond Dallas nurse with Ebola was on Frontier Airlines Flight 1143
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-diagnosed-in-second-dallas-nurse-105542930.html
An air ambulance carried her to Atlanta Wednesday evening.

Dallas was Flight 1143's last stop on Monday and Frontier said the aircraft “received a thorough cleaning per our normal procedures.” But Flightaware.com, a flight-monitoring website, told the Los Angeles Times that the Airbus A320 made five additional flights on Tuesday before being taken out of service for decontamination on Wednesday.
 
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  • #72
The CDC gave the nurse permission to fly back to Dallas ! Who gave her permission to fly to Ohio in the first place.

DALLAS — The second Dallas nurse diagnosed with Ebola shouldn't have traveled on a commercial flight due to her exposure to the virus prior to her diagnosis, said Tom Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But the CDC has now confirmed that it gave Amber Vinson permission to return to Dallas by air after making a trip to Ohio.

However, because of her exposure to the virus, Vinson shouldn't have traveled on the commercial flight, the CDC director said on Wednesday. Frieden revealed the nurse registered a low-grade fever of 99.5 degrees before she boarded the plane.

It was later confirmed that the CDC gave Vinson permission to get on the plane because she was showing no other symptoms of the virus, and her temperature didn't reach the threshold of 100.4 degrees.

Where did they get that specific number from, out of a hat!

http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/heal...las-hospital-worker-diagnosed-ebola/17290677/
 
  • #73
Well, until now, it has been widely accepted/believed that Ebola is only transmissible by contact with fluids: blood, vomit, feces, sweat, . . . . from infected patients. However, apparently University Of Minnesota CIDRAP Researchers claim Ebola Is airborne!

Ebola is airborne, according to a new report by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota. Researchers at the university just advised the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that “scientific and epidemiologic evidence” now exists that proves Ebola has the potential
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/1541821/ebola-is-airborne-university-of-minnesota-cidrap-researchers-claim/

Dallas hospital exec on Ebola crisis: 'We are deeply sorry'
Doctor will tell Congress that mistakes were made, lessons learned
http://news.yahoo.com/hospital-exec-on-ebola-crisis-we-are-deeply-sorry-051612718.html

More Ebola cases in Dallas 'very real possibility' - county official
http://news.yahoo.com/video/more-ebola-cases-dallas-39-151157631.htmlI presume that at least 5 others on the Airbus 320 who sat in the seat occupied by Vinson may be at risk for Ebola infection. I hope the CDC is tracking them down.

Meanwhile - Nurse with fever admitted to French hospital on Ebola fears
http://news.yahoo.com/nurse-fever-admitted-french-hospital-ebola-fears-144328468.html

There is hope -
Oct 4 - First French Ebola patient leaves hospital
http://news.yahoo.com/first-french-ebola-patient-leaves-hospital-144706059--finance.html

Oct 4 - Two health workers in W. Africa cured of Ebola in Europe
http://news.yahoo.com/french-nurse-cured-ebola-contracted-liberia-001646108.html
 
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  • #74
Purely anecdotal but I happened to be at a Kaiser clinic today and asked if they had been trained or briefed on dealing with Ebola. The answer was no even though the government has claimed that the DC metro area is ready if we have a case. I would think that being 'ready' would include training the medical personnel who may encounter patients with Ebola. I find it very disturbing that so little seems to be getting done given the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, it appears that hospitals won't do anything until it lands on their doorstep.
 
  • #75
Astronuc said:
Well, until now, it has been widely accepted/believed that Ebola is only transmissible by contact with fluids: blood, vomit, feces, sweat, . . . . from infected patients. However, apparently University Of Minnesota CIDRAP Researchers claim Ebola Is airborne!

Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/1541821/ebola-is-airborne-university-of-minnesota-cidrap-researchers-claim/

I don't think they mean airborne in the sense of the flu, and in fact, they decided to not use the world airborne to describe it; instead, they are talking about what happens if particles of blood, vomit, feces, etc get put into the air (for example, by flushing a toilet).

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola
 
  • #76
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  • #77
I had to go get my toe looked at today at an Urgent Care clinic in Tacoma (sigh, an infection due to a toe trauma I got while hiking last weekend - antibiotics seem to be working though!). Before they would even ask me what I was there for, I had to fill out a form with three questions: Have you recently traveled to West Africa? Have you been in proximity to someone with symptoms of Ebola (list of symptoms)? Are you experiencing a fever, diarrhea, or vomiting? Then they checked me in as normal.

I was happy to see they're at least asking relevant questions.

Honestly I was much more concerned with the people who were there with flu. They give those people masks to reduce the chance of contagion, and they looked pretty miserable. Flu is hitting early this year, and my flu shot isn't scheduled until October 29!
 
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  • #79
nsaspook said:
This is a crazy overreaction. People drink and say stupid things at casinos and nobody blinks an eye but if a dumb guy makes an Ebola joke he's arrested for 'inducing panic'.
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2014/10/cleveland_man_accused_of_jokin.html

Charged with felony inducing panic? There was no panic. I can't find two accounts of the story that read the same.

Officials said Smith spent several hours at the casino Wednesday before leaving about 5 p.m. "Two hours later", the casino's surveillance office reported to the casino commission that Smith had mentioned Ebola.

Reported two hours later and that is a panic?
 
  • #80
Some good news in the battle against Ebola - Spaniard with Ebola beats the disease, test shows
http://news.yahoo.com/spain-nursing-assistant-clear-ebola-virus-190214536.html and

Friends, family of Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan reach milestone
http://news.yahoo.com/friends-family-ebola-patient-reach-milestone-170521749.html

CDC to revise Ebola protocol, Pentagon preps team
http://news.yahoo.com/fauci-protocols-call-now-skin-showing-134441808--politics.html

ATLANTA (AP) — Revised guidance for health care workers treating Ebola patients will include using protective gear "with no skin showing," a top federal health official said Sunday, and the Pentagon announced it was forming a team to assist medical staff in the U.S., if needed.
 
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  • #81
edward said:
Where did they get that specific number [100.4=fever] from, out of a hat!
An adult oral temperature of 100.4 is just the standard definition of a medically significant fever. They recommend that you do not treat anything under that. If you Google "fever temperature", you will see 100.4 a lot. Considering how fevers fluctuate during the day, it is probably a bad standard to use for ebola risk.
 
  • #83
x

Astronuc said:
Texas Hospital: 'We Are Deeply Sorry' For Missing Ebola Diagnosis
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...-are-deeply-sorry-for-missing-ebola-diagnosis

This is what I was waiting to hear:

Dallas Hospital Letter to the Community 101914 [text version]
...
Many are speculating about how Ms. Pham and Ms. Vinson. both skilled and careful nurses. became infected
despite their compliance with the protective equipment and safety procedures. Our focus is on the facts,
and we are determined to get all of the answers as soon as we can. We have interviewed our staff and reviewed
our records and are bringing in outside expertise to completely analyze what happened and how.

Based on what we already know. I can tell you that many of the theories and allegations being presented in the
media do not align with facts stated in the medical record and the accounts of caregivers who were present
on the scene.
We have remained committed to complying with CDC guidelines from the start: we believe our
procedures complied with the CDC Ebola guidelines and our staff implemented them diligently.

As we look into and analyze what happened, we are interviewing those who participated in Mr. Duncan's care
and are encouraging staff with information and insights related to his care to share those with our team to help
us learn from this event.
...
(bolding mine)

Having retired recently from working 29 years in a Hospital, two nurses getting Ebola didn't make much sense to me, given what has been publicized as transmission modes.

I would share an anecdotal story of how I was exposed to Hepatitis by a patient one day, 28 years ago, but I've heard anecdotal stories are frowned upon.
 
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  • #84
Nigeria could have had an outbreak of Ebola, but for one doctor!

How 1 doctor saved Nigeria from Ebola catastrophe
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-nigeria-hero-doctor-adadevoh-122828747.html
A day after the World Health Organization https://news.yahoo.com/nigerias-ebola-outbreak-officially-over-104227798.html , the doctor who treated the country's first case of the deadly virus and later died from the disease herself is being hailed as a hero for helping stop the outbreak.

Dr. Stella Ameyo Adadevoh, a doctor at First Consultant Hospital, oversaw treatment of Patrick Sawyer, Nigeria's Ebola patient zero, when he arrived sick in Lagos, Nigeria's former capital and Africa's largest city, on a flight from Liberia in July.
. . . .
Adadevoh, the Telegraph writes, "effectively saved the country from disaster by spotting that its first Ebola patient was lying about his condition, and then stopped him leaving her clinic."

Sawyer, who had been caring for his Ebola-stricken sister, was reportedly set on visiting one of Nigeria's Pentecostal churches "in search of a cure from one of the so-called miracle pastors," the BBC said.
 
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  • #87
zoki85 said:

Interesting. It might be some kind of smallpox-cowpox type relationship. I found the other day that there are 5 types of Ebola. One of them had not been listed in any of the epidemics.

I believe it was called "Reston".
 
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  • #88
OmCheeto said:
Interesting. It might be some kind of smallpox-chickenpox type relationship. I found the other day that there are 5 types of Ebola. One of them had not been listed in any of the epidemics.

I believe it was called "Reston".

That is interesting, except that I thought it was smallpox - cowpox? People who had been infected with cowpox were immune to smallpox. I will have to ask a milk maiden if I can find one.

Reston virus (RESTV) is one of five known viruses within the genus Ebolavirus. Reston virus causes Ebola virus disease in non-human primates; unlike the other four ebolaviruses, it is not known to cause disease in humans, but has caused asymptomatic infections.

bold mine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reston_virus
 
  • #89
edward said:
That is interesting, except that I thought it was smallpox - cowpox?
Of course I meant "cowpox". Thank you. It is fixed.
People who had been infected with cowpox were immune to smallpox. I will have to ask a milk maiden if I can find one.

While reading about the Reston Ebola virus, I ran across a couple that have an extensive history, studying the virus: Dr. Joseph McCormick and his wife Dr. Susan Fisher-Hoch

I then found an interesting article posted 3 weeks ago (ancient history).
EBOLA: WHY THIS OUTBREAK IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER OF THIS DISEASE...
During their field studies, Fisher-Hoch and McCormick heard many of the same fears being voiced today, that somehow Ebola is now airborne.
McCormick said, "One, we have not seen the evidence. Two, we don't have any evidence of other viruses having done that. And so I think that we are, we can safely argue, continue that this is not airborne."
But the couple says this outbreak is different. In the past, Ebola killed only a few hundred people. This time, thousands have died. They say the reason has more to do with humans than Ebola.
Fisher-Hoch said, "The conditions, the average living conditions, the squalor, the poverty, the crowding are horrendous really. So that allows a virus to spread around."
Dr. McCormick says what angers him the most about the current outbreak is that two potential vaccines were identified a decade ago, but there was no serious interest to develop them until now. ...

hmmm... I suppose I should have just googled PF in the first place:

The Scientist - Human Ebola vaccine trial begins
iansmith, Physics Forums, https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/the-scientist-human-ebola-vaccine-trial-begins.9564/threads/the-scientist-human-ebola-vaccine-trial-begins.9564/

Phase I safety test of the multimodal vaccine's DNA component will last 1 year | By Jeffrey M Perkel
The leader of the team that designed an Ebola vaccine and tested it in macaque monkeys expects to see no adverse effects in the human trial of the vaccine, which began last Tuesday (November 18). ...
 
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