The discussion centers on the exponential spread of Ebola and its containment challenges. Participants explore mathematical modeling of infection rates, data reliability, and the implications of potential outbreaks beyond West Africa. The conversation includes epidemiological considerations, public health responses, and the potential for natural immunity among certain populations.
Participants express a range of views, with no consensus on the containment of the outbreak or the reliability of data. Multiple competing perspectives on the potential for future spread and the effectiveness of quarantine measures remain unresolved.
Limitations include the potential underreporting of cases, the dependence on data from various sources, and the uncertainty surrounding the virus's mutation and immunity among populations.
From now on, Frieden said, the CDC will rush a team of infectious disease specialists to assist U.S. hospitals that confirm having a case of the deadly Ebola virus.
“We will put a team on the ground within hours with some of the world's leading experts in how to take care of and protect health care workers from Ebola infection,” Frieden said. “I wish we had put a team like this on the ground the day the first patient was diagnosed.”
gravenewworld said:Have people never played quarantine before? It's absolutely ridiculous staff that were working on Duncan were allowed to travel without a short period of quarantine in their own home. It's a matter of national security, now the CDC is looking for over 100+ more people who make have had contact with the 2nd nurse now infected with Ebola. One person can easily lie, get into this country, and spread Ebola. How many other people are we letting in every single day from Ebola hotspots? We also sent hundreds of troops to those areas that will be coming home soon, how many of them will return infected?
Apparently Ebola isn't as easily contained as we all thought it would be, even though we 'are a 1st world country with a reliable health care system'. Do we really need to unnecessarily push our entire health care system to a breaking point just to test it out?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ealth-care-worker-ebola-second-case/17290575/The CDC said the nurse flew on Frontier Airlines Flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth on Oct. 13. She first reported to the hospital with a low-grade fever on the morning of Oct. 14 and was immediately placed into an isolation unit.
Public Health workers will begin interviewing the 132 passengers on Flight 1143 immediately.
gravenewworld said:Have people never played quarantine before? It's absolutely ridiculous staff that were working on Duncan were allowed to travel without a short period of quarantine in their own home. It's a matter of national security, now the CDC is looking for over 100+ more people who make have had contact with the 2nd nurse now infected with Ebola. One person can easily lie, get into this country, and spread Ebola. How many other people are we letting in every single day from Ebola hotspots? We also sent hundreds of troops to those areas that will be coming home soon, how many of them will return infected?
Apparently Ebola isn't as easily contained as we all thought it would be, even though we 'are a 1st world country with a reliable health care system'. Do we really need to unnecessarily push our entire health care system to a breaking point just to test it out?
http://kfor.com/2014/10/15/video-the-messy-truth-about-getting-ebola/The virus can survive several hours in a dried state on doorknobs or countertops.
If the fluid remains wet and at room temperature it can survive for days outside the body.
edward said:They experts keep saying that Ebola is hard to catch but I have heard no expert even mentioned the following two things.
http://kfor.com/2014/10/15/video-the-messy-truth-about-getting-ebola/
We seem to have a very erratic learning curve with this disease.
Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C)http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote52 http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote61. One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote61. In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20 and 250C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of virus reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa) http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote53. When dried in tissue culture media onto glass and stored at 4 °C, Zaire ebolavirus survived for over 50 days http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote61. This information is based on experimental findings only and not based on observations in nature. This information is intended to be used to support local risk assessments in a laboratory setting.
A study on transmission of ebolavirus from fomites in an isolation ward concludes that the risk of transmission is low when recommended infection control guidelines for viral hemorrhagic fevers are followed http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php#footnote64. Infection control protocols included decontamination of floors with 0.5% bleach daily and decontamination of visibly contaminated surfaces with 0.05% bleach as necessary.
Dallas was Flight 1143's last stop on Monday and Frontier said the aircraft “received a thorough cleaning per our normal procedures.” But Flightaware.com, a flight-monitoring website, told the Los Angeles Times that the Airbus A320 made five additional flights on Tuesday before being taken out of service for decontamination on Wednesday.
DALLAS — The second Dallas nurse diagnosed with Ebola shouldn't have traveled on a commercial flight due to her exposure to the virus prior to her diagnosis, said Tom Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But the CDC has now confirmed that it gave Amber Vinson permission to return to Dallas by air after making a trip to Ohio.
However, because of her exposure to the virus, Vinson shouldn't have traveled on the commercial flight, the CDC director said on Wednesday. Frieden revealed the nurse registered a low-grade fever of 99.5 degrees before she boarded the plane.
It was later confirmed that the CDC gave Vinson permission to get on the plane because she was showing no other symptoms of the virus, and her temperature didn't reach the threshold of 100.4 degrees.
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/1541821/ebola-is-airborne-university-of-minnesota-cidrap-researchers-claim/Ebola is airborne, according to a new report by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota. Researchers at the university just advised the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that “scientific and epidemiologic evidence” now exists that proves Ebola has the potential
Astronuc said:Well, until now, it has been widely accepted/believed that Ebola is only transmissible by contact with fluids: blood, vomit, feces, sweat, . . . . from infected patients. However, apparently University Of Minnesota CIDRAP Researchers claim Ebola Is airborne!
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/1541821/ebola-is-airborne-university-of-minnesota-cidrap-researchers-claim/
nsaspook said:This is a crazy overreaction. People drink and say stupid things at casinos and nobody blinks an eye but if a dumb guy makes an Ebola joke he's arrested for 'inducing panic'.
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2014/10/cleveland_man_accused_of_jokin.html
Officials said Smith spent several hours at the casino Wednesday before leaving about 5 p.m. "Two hours later", the casino's surveillance office reported to the casino commission that Smith had mentioned Ebola.
ATLANTA (AP) — Revised guidance for health care workers treating Ebola patients will include using protective gear "with no skin showing," a top federal health official said Sunday, and the Pentagon announced it was forming a team to assist medical staff in the U.S., if needed.
An adult oral temperature of 100.4 is just the standard definition of a medically significant fever. They recommend that you do not treat anything under that. If you Google "fever temperature", you will see 100.4 a lot. Considering how fevers fluctuate during the day, it is probably a bad standard to use for ebola risk.edward said:Where did they get that specific number [100.4=fever] from, out of a hat!
Astronuc said:Texas Hospital: 'We Are Deeply Sorry' For Missing Ebola Diagnosis
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...-are-deeply-sorry-for-missing-ebola-diagnosis
(bolding mine)Dallas Hospital Letter to the Community 101914 [text version]
...
Many are speculating about how Ms. Pham and Ms. Vinson. both skilled and careful nurses. became infected
despite their compliance with the protective equipment and safety procedures. Our focus is on the facts,
and we are determined to get all of the answers as soon as we can. We have interviewed our staff and reviewed
our records and are bringing in outside expertise to completely analyze what happened and how.
Based on what we already know. I can tell you that many of the theories and allegations being presented in the
media do not align with facts stated in the medical record and the accounts of caregivers who were present
on the scene. We have remained committed to complying with CDC guidelines from the start: we believe our
procedures complied with the CDC Ebola guidelines and our staff implemented them diligently.
As we look into and analyze what happened, we are interviewing those who participated in Mr. Duncan's care
and are encouraging staff with information and insights related to his care to share those with our team to help
us learn from this event.
...
A day after the World Health Organization https://news.yahoo.com/nigerias-ebola-outbreak-officially-over-104227798.html , the doctor who treated the country's first case of the deadly virus and later died from the disease herself is being hailed as a hero for helping stop the outbreak.
Dr. Stella Ameyo Adadevoh, a doctor at First Consultant Hospital, oversaw treatment of Patrick Sawyer, Nigeria's Ebola patient zero, when he arrived sick in Lagos, Nigeria's former capital and Africa's largest city, on a flight from Liberia in July.
. . . .
Adadevoh, the Telegraph writes, "effectively saved the country from disaster by spotting that its first Ebola patient was lying about his condition, and then stopped him leaving her clinic."
Sawyer, who had been caring for his Ebola-stricken sister, was reportedly set on visiting one of Nigeria's Pentecostal churches "in search of a cure from one of the so-called miracle pastors," the BBC said.
zoki85 said:70 % of people immune?
Whaaat?
OmCheeto said:Interesting. It might be some kind of smallpox-chickenpox type relationship. I found the other day that there are 5 types of Ebola. One of them had not been listed in any of the epidemics.
I believe it was called "Reston".
Reston virus (RESTV) is one of five known viruses within the genus Ebolavirus. Reston virus causes Ebola virus disease in non-human primates; unlike the other four ebolaviruses, it is not known to cause disease in humans, but has caused asymptomatic infections.
Of course I meant "cowpox". Thank you. It is fixed.edward said:That is interesting, except that I thought it was smallpox - cowpox?
People who had been infected with cowpox were immune to smallpox. I will have to ask a milk maiden if I can find one.
EBOLA: WHY THIS OUTBREAK IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER OF THIS DISEASE...
During their field studies, Fisher-Hoch and McCormick heard many of the same fears being voiced today, that somehow Ebola is now airborne.
McCormick said, "One, we have not seen the evidence. Two, we don't have any evidence of other viruses having done that. And so I think that we are, we can safely argue, continue that this is not airborne."
But the couple says this outbreak is different. In the past, Ebola killed only a few hundred people. This time, thousands have died. They say the reason has more to do with humans than Ebola.
Fisher-Hoch said, "The conditions, the average living conditions, the squalor, the poverty, the crowding are horrendous really. So that allows a virus to spread around."
Dr. McCormick says what angers him the most about the current outbreak is that two potential vaccines were identified a decade ago, but there was no serious interest to develop them until now. ...
The Scientist - Human Ebola vaccine trial begins
iansmith, Physics Forums, https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/the-scientist-human-ebola-vaccine-trial-begins.9564/threads/the-scientist-human-ebola-vaccine-trial-begins.9564/
Phase I safety test of the multimodal vaccine's DNA component will last 1 year | By Jeffrey M Perkel
The leader of the team that designed an Ebola vaccine and tested it in macaque monkeys expects to see no adverse effects in the human trial of the vaccine, which began last Tuesday (November 18). ...
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) plans to have 250,000 doses of experimental Ebola vaccine ready for clinical trials in May, potentially putting it ahead of GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK) in the race to combat the virus that has killed thousands in West Africa.