News Is Ebola's Exponential Spread Uncontainable?

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/number-ebola-cases-passes-10-000-101744209.html

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — More than 10,000 people have been infected with Ebola and nearly half of them have died, according to figures released Saturday by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread.

The number of confirmed, probable and suspected cases has risen to 10,141. Of those cases, 4,922 people have died, according to the UN/WHO.

It is the largest outbreak yet. Hopefully, it will be the last.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Astro, why do you think it will be the last? I think our experience is that diseases don't just disappear. They have to be eradicated.

 

[Astronuc]

US journalist

Astro, why do you think it will be the last? I think our experience is that diseases don't just disappear. They have to be eradicated.

I not thinking it will be the last, but hoping it will be the last major outbreak. There are apparently vaccines being developed, or at least treatments, but unless folks change their ways, there will likely be more such occurrences.

US journalist Ashoka Mukpo discusses his experience with Ebola
http://news.yahoo.com/us-journalist-says-body-war-ebola-192305250.html

Receiving a blood transfusion from Ebola survivor Dr. Kent Brantly, who was treated in Atlanta, was a turning point. The next day, Mukpo's eyesight was clearer, his headache and fever had lessened, and his body felt more under his control.

 

[Astronuc]

Poor health systems in Asia cause for concern/alarm regarding Ebola.
http://news.yahoo.com/poor-health-systems-asia-cause-ebola-alarm-051240578.html [/PLAIN]

SINGAPORE (AP) — The longer the Ebola outbreak rages in West Africa, the greater chance a traveler infected with the virus touches down in an Asian city.

How quickly any case is detected — and the measures taken once it is — will determine whether the virus takes hold in a region where billions live in poverty and public health systems are often very weak. Governments are ramping up response plans, stepping up surveillance at airports and considering quarantine measures. Still, health experts in the region's less developed countries fear any outbreak would be deadly and hard to contain.
. . . .

 

[OmCheeto]

Have any of you been tracking the rate of new Ebola infections? It seems that there is pretty clear exponential growth, and the virus is anything but contained. Is anyone else bothered by this? By looking at this just mathematically, some huge swath of people will become infected. At a certain point the shear number of infections could threaten to collapse the efforts to contain it. Maybe the outbreak is just too big to contain. Maybe the outbreak is too slow moving to cause a health care collapse. I'm no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing that this outbreak will continue for years into the future.

About a week a ago, I saw a bar graph on wiki of the number of reported cases per week:

It looked as though the cases per week had leveled off. Unfortunately, the author did not reference the source. So I snooped around and found the "situation reports" at the WHO, where I found periodic total count numbers for the 3 primary affected nations.

After entering in the data, and doing a little bit of smoothing, as the data out of Liberia is really jumpy, it looks as though the above graph is moderately accurate.

Here's my graph:

​

So it does appear that the new case rate per day has been dropping.

Interpolating the data some more, I took the numbers from the 4 highest count consecutive reports, and the numbers from the four latest reports, and determined that the reduction in reported cases is about 2.17 per day over a 26 day period. Which, if the trend continues, the epidemic will be over a couple of weeks before Christmas.

Let's cross our fingers. :)

Here's my csv file with the raw data, in case anyone else has a better way of interpreting the data.

 

[OmCheeto]

...
US journalist Ashoka Mukpo discusses his experience with Ebola
http://news.yahoo.com/us-journalist-says-body-war-ebola-192305250.html

Excellent video. I was going to post about his case yesterday, as I thought his case was peculiar.
He claims that he thinks he caught Ebola, while washing a car?

October 6, 2014
The American journalist with Ebola who arrived at a Nebraska hospital today believes that he may have gotten infected when he got splashed while spray-washing a vehicle where someone had died from the disease.

 

[Astronuc]

Who's over-reacting?

US doctor who survived Ebola: Christie's mandatory quarantine creates 'police state' - as opposed to a personal quarantine?
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-doctors-mandatory-quarantine-police-state-125216108.html

Apparently a person exposed to Ebola can be asymptomatic (until they're not) up through 21 days.

 

[nsaspook]

Mandatory quarantine, confinement, vacation, "controlled monitoring" or whatever else we will call it should be an expected condition of reentry in the the US after high risk of exposure to Ebola. I don't think you need to be in total isolation for 21 days but legally restricted freedom of movement of possible carriers to stop potentially exposing others to Ebola is not a 'police state'.

The US military has a 'half-way' house in Italy for returning personnel.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/27/politics/soldiers-monitored-ebola/index.html

Jessica L. Wright, the undersecretary of Defense for personnel and readiness, issued an Oct. 10 memo that said troops who have faced an elevated risk of exposure to Ebola will be quarantined for 21 days -- and that those who haven't faced any known exposure will be monitored for three weeks.

 

[OmCheeto]

I cannot comprehend how horrible it must be in those countries:

Liberia already had only a few dozen of its own doctors. Then came Ebola.
October 11, 2014
...
Now, doctors put on their protective gear in the kitchen. There is no incinerator, so a 10-foot pile of Ebola-laced garbage and excrement sits in the back yard. There is no morgue, so bodies sometimes decay outside, next to where patients sit in white lawn chairs. There are no protective hoods for the full-body medical suits, so the health workers cut theirs out of extra Tyvek material. Moses, the top doctor here, received only one day of Ebola training.
...
According to the Liberia Medical and Dental Council, the country has 173 homegrown doctors. But the number is actually much lower. Most of A.M. Dogliotti’s graduates have gone abroad. Liberia’s ambassador to the United States said the country has closer to 50 doctors — or one for every 90,000 citizens, not counting foreign physicians.

Eight dead in attack on Ebola team in Guinea. ‘Killed in cold blood.
September 18, 2014
The bodies of eight people, including several health workers and three journalists, have been found days after they were attacked while distributing information about Ebola in a Guinean village near the city of Nzerekore, according to Reuters.

"The eight bodies were found in the village latrine," Albert Damantang Camara, a spokesman for Guinea's government, told Reuters on Thursday. "Three of them had their throats slit."

I need some good news...

Liberia: New Ebola mobile lab speeds up diagnosis and improves care
October 20, 2014
One of the challenges to bring the Ebola outbreak under control in Liberia has been lack of access locally to laboratories able to provide a quick and firm diagnosis of the disease. This month the United States Navy opened a new high-tech mobile laboratory near the Island Clinic, one of the Ebola treatment units in Monrovia, Liberia, that is supported by the WHO.

 

[Astronuc]

New York state backtracks on Ebola rules after nurse quarantine row
http://news.yahoo.com/concerns-mount-over-us-ebola-quarantine-163358012.html

Kaci Hickox, who became the first American health worker isolated under the new quarantine orders on Friday, claims she was made to feel like a criminal and that her compulsory quarantining was "inhumane."
. . . .
"This hero was treated with disrespect, was treated with a sense that she had done something wrong, when she hadn't; was not given a clear direction," de Blasio told a press conference.

"We owe her better than that and all the people better than that."

Ms. Hickox was only "allowed to wear paper scrubs, and" and was kept in a tent that was "equipped with just a hospital bed, a non-flush chemical toilet and no shower." Sounds rather unpleasant.Meanwhile - there is a potential case in a hospital in Baltimore, MD.Australia issues blanket visa ban on Ebola-hit countries
http://news.yahoo.com/australia-issues-blanket-visa-ban-ebola-hit-countries-022047232.html

 

[OmCheeto]

That is interesting... People who had been infected with cowpox were immune to smallpox. I will have to ask a milk maiden if I can find one.
...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reston_virus

And now we get an expert opinion on this idea:

Could Reston virus be a vaccine for Ebola virus?
October 23, 2014
I have received many questions about whether immunizing with Reston virus could protect against infection with Ebola virus. Usually the question comes together with the statement ‘because Reston virus does not cause disease in humans’. I can think of two reasons why a Reston virus vaccine is not a good idea.

There have been very few confirmed human infections with Reston virus (4 according to Fields Virology 6th Edition), and although these individuals did not show signs of disease, the number is too small to make any conclusions. For example, if the case fatality ratio of Reston virus in humans were 1%, we might not have yet seen any deaths due to the small number of confirmed infections. However if we were to immunize a million people with a Reston virus vaccine, and the case fatality ratio were 1%, there would be 10,000 deaths, obviously an unacceptable rate for a vaccine. As the virus causes disease in nonhuman primates, and there are so few human infections, it is not possible to know the case fatality ratio.

I'll take that as; "It's a good idea, but it needs more testing".

 

[Astronuc]

Top UN Ebola official: new cases poorly tracked
http://news.yahoo.com/5-000-ebola-health-workers-needed-west-africa-092859165.html

KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — Authorities are having trouble figuring out how many more people are getting Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone and where the hot spots are in those countries, harming efforts to get control of the raging, deadly outbreak, the U.N.'s top Ebola official in West Africa said Tuesday.

"The challenge is good information, because information helps tell us where the disease is, how it's spreading and where we need to target our resources," Anthony Banbury told The Associated Press by phone from the Ghanaian capital of Accra, where the U.N. Mission for Ebola Emergency Response, or UNMEER, is based.

Health experts say the key to stopping Ebola is breaking the chain of transmission by tracing and isolating those who have had contact with Ebola patients or victims. Health care workers can't do that if they don't know where new cases are emerging.
. . . .

A lot of work ahead.Meanwhile - Connecticut has the most mandatory Ebola quarantines in America
http://news.yahoo.com/connecticut-ebola-scare-quarantine-150928265.html

 

[OmCheeto]

Top UN Ebola official: new cases poorly tracked
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/the-exponential-spread-of-ebola.768849/page-6
A lot of work ahead.

Are you sure that was the link you intended? I think this one is the one you wanted: http://hosted2.ap.org/OHCOL/8ef5320...st Africa/id-29160ff184384c01a3777c78ce146fae

Anyways, there appears to be a little bit of good news coming from the region:

Obama assails Ebola quarantines, saying they are based on fear, not facts
October 28, 2014

Of the seven Americans treated for Ebola, all have survived

many Liberians, who at first denied the epidemic was real, have come to their senses and changed their behavior by avoiding direct physical contact with sick or dead people.

Just left Sierra Leone: good news in fight vs leading cause of Ebola infection: safe burials in Freetown have gone from 30% to nearly 100%.

Still, as you said, a lot of work ahead.

In the article it also states that the head of the World Bank says they need 5000 more medical personnel in the areas. The U.S. Military has 700 personnel in the region, and expects to send thousands more.

 

[nsaspook]

http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-nurse-defensive-gets-call-obama-223238909.html

The Pentagon announced Tuesday that the Joint Chiefs of Staff recommended to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that he require all U.S. troops returning from Ebola-fighting missions in West Africa to be kept in supervised isolation for 21 days. Balancing that and similar quarantines announced by several state governors, President Barack Obama said the Ebola response needs to be "based on science."
...
Vinson, 29, was infected while caring for Thomas Eric Duncan, who died at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas on Oct. 8. She inserted catheters, drew blood, and dealt with Duncan's body fluids, all while wearing protective gear.

I'm all for handling Ebola with the best known science but they really don't understand the method of transmission to medical professionals treating gravely ill people. It seems the latest US examples are of people who believed they had zero change of being an Ebola carrier and acted accordingly.

 

[Astronuc]

Simple new test finds Ebola in 15 minutes, could be ‘game changer’
Test would cut down on days-long wait for diagnosis
http://news.yahoo.com/simple-new-te...inutes--could-be--gamechanger--200026694.html

Tulane University scientists have created an Ebola diagnostic device that they say is as easy to use and nearly as fast as a home pregnancy test.

The potentially game-changing device, which takes only a drop of blood and 15 minutes to identify the disease, is awaiting federal approval before it can be used in West Africa. Doctors there say it is sorely needed to prevent people from spreading the deadly virus while they wait days for lab results.

Robert Garry, a professor of microbiology at Tulane, has teamed up with Corgenix, a Colorado-based company, to create the device with nearly $3 million in federal funds. They are awaiting a green light from the Food and Drug Administration to fast-track approval for its use in West Africa. Another company, Genalyte of San Diego, says it has developed a test that takes just 10 minutes and also needs only one drop of blood to diagnose.

Ebola fatality rates have been reported to be 70 to 90%, but it depends on age and probably health.

Why do some survive Ebola? Sierra Leone study offers clues
http://news.yahoo.com/why-survive-ebola-sierra-leone-study-offers-clues-070129976.htmlMeanwhile - "The nation's preparedness effort to fight outbreaks of Ebola and other infectious diseases has been under-funded and lacking in political will and commitment."

http://news.yahoo.com/funding-tame-ebola-outbreak-fallen-short-162948502.html

 

[Astronuc]

Nurse free to move about as restrictions eased
http://news.yahoo.com/nurse-free-move-restrictions-eased-051512351.html

FORT KENT, Maine (AP) — A nurse who treated Ebola patients in Sierra Leone can move about as she pleases after a Maine judge eased state-imposed restrictions on her, handing officials in Maine a defeat in the nation's biggest court case yet over how to balance personal liberty, public safety and fear of Ebola.
. . . .

 

[Astronuc]

Ebola 'Patient Zero': How Outbreak Started from Single Child
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-patient-zero-outbreak-started-single-child-143918755.html

Apparently it is not known how the child contracted the disease, but it spread rapidly among family, friends and associates, then beyond the local community.Post-Ebola survivors have poor health afterwards.
'Post-Ebola Syndrome' Persists After Virus Is Cured, Doctor Says
https://gma.yahoo.com/post-ebola-syndrome-persists-virus-cured-doctor-says-181100681--abc-news-topstories.html

 

[klimatos]

There are three considerations about the current Ebola situation that, when taken separately are matters of interest, but when taken together are matters of concern.1. While the lethality of airborne Ebola infection is low under the warm and humid conditions of sub-Saharan Africa, the U. S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) suggests that the virus can be carried through ordinary ventilation systems under cooler and dryer conditions—conditions that are common in the rest of the world’s more populous areas. The 1989 infectious outbreak of Ebola in rhesus monkeys in a quarantine facility in Reston, Virginia, is thought to have spread in this manner. http://www.infowars.com/u-s-army-ebola-goes-airborne-once-temperature-drops/2. Many viral infections (hepatitis B, HIV, EBV, herpes simplex, etc.) are characterized by “asymptomatic carriers”. These are individuals who can infect others with the disease, but show no symptoms themselves. No such carriers have been identified as yet in connection with Ebola, but it would be foolhardy to assume that such carriers do not exist or will not exist. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptomatic_carrier3. The U. S. is posting troops to infected areas to help fight the current outbreak. When their tour of duty in these areas is completed, they will be returned to the U. S. where they will presumably be quarantined for a period of time. Quarantines are completely ineffective against asymptomatic carriers, and many of these posts have the cool and dry conditions that favor the airborne spread of the disease.Something to think about.

 

[Astronuc]

Guinea Is Seeing More Ebola Cases: Can The Trend Be Stopped?
http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandso...ing-more-ebola-cases-can-the-trend-be-stopped

In the current Ebola crisis, much of the focus has been on Liberia and Sierra Leone. But the virus also continues to spread in Guinea, where the first case in the current outbreak was identified in March.

According to the latest figures from the World Health Organization, Guinea has had fewer cases than either Sierra Leone (4,759) or Liberia (6,525). WHO has recorded 1,731 Ebola cases and 1,041 deaths in Guinea. This, however, is just a few dozen fatalities fewer than in Sierra Leone. And despite the lower numbers in Guinea, some data suggest the outbreak is spreading faster there than in the neighboring countries.
. . . .

So what's going on?

. . . As of June, when the epidemic began to hit the fan, there've been a lot of people leaving those countries [Liberia and Sierra Leone] to come back to their family [in Guinea]. Some of those people were sick without knowing it. When they were back, they started to show symptoms and contaminate their own family and the people around them. We've seen that many, many times. This explains why the epidemic re-launched and why it was very difficult to control it again.

 

[Astronuc]

As world leaders vow to 'extinguish' Ebola, new cases emerge in Mali.

http://news.yahoo.com/g20-leaders-commit-extinguish-ebola-outbreak-083640465.html

And there is a separate outbreak of a different strain of Ebola, which claimed at least 49 lives in the Democratic Republic of Congo since August. DRC now claims to be free of the disease.

 

[Astronuc]

Dr. Martin Salia died of the disease shortly after 4 a.m., Nebraska Medical Center spokesman Taylor Wilson said.
http://news.yahoo.com/nebraska-hospital-surgeon-ebola-died-134817996.html

Salia, 44, had advanced symptoms when he arrived at the hospital Saturday, including kidney and respiratory failure, the hospital said in a statement. He was placed on dialysis, a ventilator and given several medications to support his organ systems.

Salia was given the experimental drug ZMapp on Saturday. He also received a plasma transfusion from an Ebola survivor — a treatment that is believed to provide antibodies to fight the virus.

Early detection and treatment, with drugs like ZMapp, seem to be the key to survival.

 

[dragoneyes001]

one of the problems within the regions affected is how families and friends deal with the dead such as close physical contact after death to see off the dead when the body is still infectious. the people trying to reduce the spread have been educating the regions about the problem and in the more populous regions the public has been abiding by the new rules of no contact after death which according to the WHO has shown a marked drop in infections.But this does not include the more remote regions because there are too few health care workers to spread out that widely.

on another note I really have to question why someone would be pressure washing an infectious vehicle when the virus is spread by fluid contact wouldn't adding all the water simply multiply the infectious material?

 

[lisab]

on another note I really have to question why someone would be pressure washing an infectious vehicle when the virus is spread by fluid contact wouldn't adding all the water simply multiply the infectious material?

No, the virus can't multiply outside of a host.

 

[dragoneyes001]

No, the virus can't multiply outside of a host.

but diluting blood or other fluids would make contact to them easier wouldn't it?

the term multiply was in error. i should have said increased or in some way carried with the water.

I'm just asking if something like flash drying might be a better way of cleaning infectious items.

 

[lisab]

but diluting blood or other fluids would make contact to them easier wouldn't it?

the term multiply was in error. i should have said increased or in some way carried with the water.

I'm just asking if something like flash drying might be a better way of cleaning infectious items.

A while back, I think someone asked how long the Ebola virus can remain infectious once it's outside the body. There wasn't a clear answer. Perhaps it's not known yet, or perhaps there many different strains and not all have been tested.

Drying...that's interesting. My background isn't biology, so I can't answer that. I have read in several places that bleach works very well against the Ebola virus.

 

[Astronuc]

Some infected people are carrying the disease further afield.

Mali: New Ebola case confirmed, 2 more suspected
http://news.yahoo.com/mali-ebola-case-confirmed-2-more-suspected-142912285.html

BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — Mali on Saturday confirmed a new case of Ebola and said two more suspected patients are being tested, raising concern about a further spread of the disease which has already killed at least five people in the country.
. . . .
Mali officials are monitoring 310 people to limit the spread of the disease, said the statement.
Mali's five confirmed Ebola deaths are linked to a 70-year-old imam who was brought to the capital, Bamako, from Guinea, where the regional Ebola epidemic first began.

Mali records new Ebola case, linked to dead nurse
http://news.yahoo.com/mali-records-ebola-case-linked-dead-nurse-140851943.html

The nurse contracted the disease after treating an imam from neighboring Guinea, who died after being incorrectly diagnosed with kidney problems. This allowed Ebola to spread to five other people in the West African nation's second outbreak.

Doctor who treated source of second Mali Ebola outbreak dies
http://news.yahoo.com/doctor-treated-source-second-mali-ebola-outbreak-dies-065008074.html

BAMAKO (Reuters) - A doctor in Mali who treated the patient that sparked a second wave of Ebola in the West African country has died, the government said in a statement on state-owned television on Thursday.
The government said the death of the doctor, whose name was not released, brought the total number of those who have died of Ebola in Mali to five. Before Thursday's announcement, the World Health Organization was already reporting five Ebola deaths in Mali, while medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) put the figure at seven.

 

[Astronuc]

Ebola cases near 16,000, Sierra Leone to overtake Liberia soon with most cases: WHO
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-cases-near-16-000-sierra-leone-overtake-171705005.html

GENEVA (Reuters) - The death toll in the world's worst Ebola epidemic has risen to 5,689 out of 15,935 cases reported in eight countries by Nov. 23, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday.

Almost all cases and all but 15 deaths have been in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - the three hardest-hit countries, which reported 600 new cases in the past week, the WHO said in its latest update.

 

[Astronuc]

Officials designate 35 hospitals for Ebola care
http://news.yahoo.com/officials-designate-35-hospitals-ebola-care-171538649.html
Sierra Leone doctor who got Ebola is not relenting
http://news.yahoo.com/sierra-leone-doctor-got-ebola-not-relenting-155526368.html
Ebola response too slow: Doctors Without Borders
http://news.yahoo.com/revises-down-liberia-ebola-death-toll-3-145-102222517.html

The number of people infected with Ebola has passed, 17,000, according to data published Tuesday by the World Health Organization. Of those, more than 6,000 have died. Emphasizing the severity of the outbreak, Sierra Leone announced that another doctor, its 10th, has tested positive for Ebola.

That's about an increase of 1000 in 9 days, or slightly more than 100/day.

 

[B0b-A]

Silver-lining : we may be getting rid of a few homeopaths ... http://www.pepijnvanerp.nl/2014/10/homeopaths-in-liberia-mission-ebola/

 

[.Scott]

The latest WHO stituation report is here:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/145679/1/roadmapsitrep_17Dec2014_eng.pdf

It is encouraging.
For Sierra Leone, it shows a modest drop in new cases for two weeks in a row.
For Liberia, it shows activity that is a fraction of what it had been in September.
No significant change in Guinea for the past few months - but at least it's not growing exponentially or otherwise.

 

[Astronuc]

The 2-year-old boy believed to have triggered the deadly Ebola outbreak in West Africa was likely infected by playing in a bat tree, scientists say.
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-boy-index-patient-zero-bat-tree-182151708.html

Nurse becomes first Ebola victim diagnosed in Britain
http://news.yahoo.com/healthcare-worker-scotland-diagnosed-ebola-080932011.html

 

[Astronuc]

Ebola is still taking a toll.

Ebola-hit UK nurse in critical condition
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-hit-uk-nurse-critical-condition-hospital-143449374.html

Cafferkey, who was working with the charity Save the Children in Sierra Leone, had agreed to have blood plasma treatment and take an experimental anti-viral drug.

However, they were not able to give her ZMapp, the drug successfully used to treat fellow British volunteer nurse William Pooley, because global supplies had run out.

Yet some have an optimistic outlook
Ebola fight remains tough but may be won this year: UN mission chief
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-fight-remains-tough-may-won-un-mission-072035492.html

The outbreak, first identified in Guinea's remote southeast in early 2014, has struck six West African nations, with Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia bearing the brunt of the 20,000 infections and nearly 8,000 dead.

Faced with criticism the world was not doing enough, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon set up the U.N. Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) mission in September to coordinate global efforts.

I think the world is doing a lot on many fronts. It's not just Ebola, but other diseases like polio, etc, as well as food, fresh/clean water, sanitation, etc.

 

[Astronuc]

Patient Possibly Exposed To Ebola Due At Nebraska Hospital For Observation
https://www.yahoo.com/health/patient-possibly-exposed-to-ebola-due-at-nebraska-107109328232.html

"On Saturday, a London hospital said a British nurse being treated for Ebola was in critical condition after deteriorating over the last two days."

 

[Astronuc]

Mali just declared itself Ebola-free.

Number of new Ebola cases declining as disease evolves
http://news.yahoo.com/number-of-ebola-cases-declining-as-disease-evolves--un-224123785.htmlHowever,

the deadly Ebola virus is changing, and new genetic mutations that have arisen in the past four decades could thwart the experimental drugs that some pharmaceutical companies are developing, researchers said Tuesday.

https://www.yahoo.com/health/ebola-virus-changes-over-time-may-thwart-drugs-108650323442.html

 

[Astronuc]

The Ebola outbreak seems to be diminishing prompting some to wonder.

Drop In Ebola Cases Makes Scientists Wonder If Virus Immunizes As Well As It Kills
https://www.yahoo.com/health/drop-in-ebola-cases-makes-scientists-wonder-if-109299150532.html

 

[Astronuc]

Just when one thinks it's over - it's back

Sierra Leone vice president places himself in Ebola quarantine
http://news.yahoo.com/sierra-leone-vice-president-places-himself-ebola-quarantine-194227849.html

FREETOWN (Reuters) - Sierra Leone's Vice President Samuel Sam-Sumana said on Saturday that he had placed himself in a 21-day quarantine after one of his bodyguards died of Ebola amid a worrying recent surge in new infections in the West African nation.

 

[Astronuc]

At least 10 Americans being flown to U.S. after possible Ebola exposure
http://news.yahoo.com/least-10-people-flown-u-possible-ebola-exposure-195234152.html

I wonder who is paying for this.

 

[Astronuc]

Experimental Ebola Vaccine Could Stop Virus in West Africa
https://www.yahoo.com/health/experimental-ebola-vaccine-could-stop-virus-in-125513143352.html

Looks like there is a successful vaccine for (against) Ebola!

An experimental vaccine tested on thousands of people in Guinea exposed to Ebola seems to work and might help shut down the ongoing epidemic in West Africa, according to interim results from a study published Friday.

New Ebola Vaccine Has '100 Percent' Effectiveness In Early Results
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...as-100-percent-effectiveness-in-early-results

 

[Astronuc]

Ebola is persistent - British Nurse in Isolation After Ebola Symptoms Resurface 10 Months After She First Fell Ill

The 2014 Ebola epidemic, which impacted several countries in West Africa and even surfaced in the U.S., was the largest in history, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic killed more than 11,200 people in West Africa.

While it’s unusual for Ebola to resurface in a patient, it has happened in the recent past. Ebola survivor Ian Crozier, MD, made headlines in May after one of his eyes changed color two months after he recovered from the disease. Upon examination, doctors discovered that his eye was “teeming” with Ebola.

Reminds me of Andromeda Strain - it rapidly adapts.Doctor Who Survived Ebola Describes Disease's Aftermath on the Body
http://news.yahoo.com/doctor-survived-ebola-describes-diseases-aftermath-body-064300740.html

 

[Astronuc]

Two new Ebola cases in Guinea, WHO says
http://news.yahoo.com/two-ebola-cases-guinea-says-100546661.html

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-health-ebola-relapse-idUSKCN0S91ZN20151016

The case of Pauline Cafferkey, the first person known to have recovered from Ebola and then suffer an apparently life-threatening relapse, is taking scientists into uncharted territory.

The Scottish nurse's critically ill situation, described as "staggering" by one British virologist, signals just how complex and formidable a foe the Ebola virus may turn out to be now that scientists have the chance to study its survivors.
...
"Even if you don't have the virus in your bloodstream it can be hiding out," said Messaoudi. "And we need to be aware of that because it's setting up the stage for potentially new outbreaks."

For now, she said, the key message amid all the unknowns is "it's not over when we think it's over."

 

[lisab]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-health-ebola-relapse-idUSKCN0S91ZN20151016

That's horrible, and terrifying. But I wonder why it took a Westerner relapsing to get noticed? Are relapses not happening to African survivors?

 

[Borg]

Assuming that the nurse is contagious again, do the protocols need to change? The ones who have recovered have been released back into the general public. But, since they can relapse, should they be considered a potential public danger for the rest of their life?

 

[Astronuc]

Liberia monitors over 150 Ebola contacts as virus re-emerges
http://news.yahoo.com/liberia-monitors-over-150-ebola-contacts-virus-emerges-135253611.html

Ebola is persistent.

 

[Astronuc]

WHO declares Ebola outbreak over as Liberia gets all-clear
http://news.yahoo.com/declares-worst-ever-ebola-outbreak-over-092344314.html

Monrovia (AFP) - The world breathed a sigh of relief Thursday as a two-year Ebola epidemic that killed 11,000 and triggered a global health alert was declared over, with Liberia the last country to get the all-clear.

The deadliest outbreak in the history of the feared tropical virus wrecked the economies and health systems of the three worst-hit west African nations after it emerged in southern Guinea in December 2013

 

[Ygggdrasil]

WHO declares Ebola outbreak over as Liberia gets all-clear
http://news.yahoo.com/declares-worst-ever-ebola-outbreak-over-092344314.html

Literally, the next day:
Sierra Leone Reports Ebola Death, 1 Day After Outbreak Declared Over
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...s-new-death-from-ebola-one-day-after-landmark

 

[Astronuc]

Yes - it appears that the Ebola virus (or viruses) are lurking in the environment.

Ebola virus: New case emerges in Sierra Leone
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35320363

Ebola is back … or never left
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/ebola-back-or-never-left

Just hours after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Ebola outbreak in West Africa over on Thursday, Sierra Leone reported a new case of the disease to WHO. A 22-year-old woman, who had died earlier in the week, had tested positive for the virus. . . .

The details of the case are troubling. The young woman was a student in Lunsar, a town in the district of Port Loko, says Christopher Dye of WHO. Around Christmas she traveled from there to Kambia district, closer to the border with Guinea, and stayed there until 6 January. “We suspect that was the time of onset of the illness,” Dye says. “Having become ill she decided to go home, and her family home is in Tonkalili.” The young woman went to a hospital but was not recognized as an Ebola case. “She got progressively worse and died. The process of preparing her body for burial and the burial itself were done unsafely,” Dye says. “That is of course not what we would have liked to have seen happen in light of all the Ebola cases we had.”
. . . .

 

[Astronuc]

Guinea Confirms 2 New Ebola Cases, 3 Probable in Southeast
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/guinea-confirms-ebola-cases-probable-southeast-37730757

It's back - or it never left.

Guinea No Longer Free of Ebola: 2 New Cases
http://news.yahoo.com/guinea-no-longer-free-ebola-2-cases-224311691.html

 

[Astronuc]

New Ebola death in Liberian capital weeks after all-clear
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ebola-case-liberian-capital-health-ministry-131419940.html

Monrovia (AFP) - A 30-year-old woman has died in the Liberian capital after contracting Ebola, officials said Friday, more than two months after the epidemic was declared over in the country.

Ebola still lurking.