Is the Faint Young Sun Problem Solved by Increased Greenhouse Gases?

Click For Summary
Global warming is widely accepted as a scientific fact, with rising global surface temperatures and ocean temperatures, along with accelerating sea level rise due to thermal expansion and melting ice. The oceans have absorbed over 80% of the heat from global warming, which is a significant factor in climate change. Historical data shows that glaciers and ice caps have lost mass, contributing to sea level rise, while permafrost warming has been observed in various regions. The discussion also touches on the complexities of natural climate cycles and the impact of greenhouse gases, with some skepticism about the extent of human influence on climate change. Overall, the evidence strongly supports the reality of global warming and its implications for the planet.
  • #31
I'm fond of the ocean as one can tell by a previous posting. As a responsible citizen of planet Earth, and a concerned one at that, it's important for me to learn about my environment and the options available. Foremost, I like to share with others so they are informed as well. :)

Comput Biol Chem. 2009 Dec;33(6):415-20. Epub 2009 Oct 2.

Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.
Crabbe MJ.

LIRANS Institute for Research in the Applied Natural Sciences, Faculty of Creative Arts, Technologies and Science, University of Bedfordshire, Park Square, Luton LU1 3JU, UK. james.crabbe@beds.ac.uk

Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

PMID: 19850527 [PubMed - in process]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/e...ez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum


J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2009 Oct;59(10):1194-211.

Global climate change and the mitigation challenge.
Princiotta F.

Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA. Princiotta.frank@epa.gov

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8 degrees C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO2 emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5 degrees C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO2 emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required.

PMID: 19842327 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/e...ez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum


Title: The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2 exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks
Authors:
Bates, N. R.; Mathis, J. T.
Affiliation:
AA(Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Ferry Reach, Bermuda nick.bates@bios.edu), AB(School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA)
Publication:
Biogeosciences, Volume 6, Issue 11, 2009, pp.2433-2459 (COPERNICUS Homepage)
Publication Date:
11/2009
Origin:
COPERNICUS
Bibliographic Code:
2009BGeo...6.2433B

Abstract
At present, although seasonal sea-ice cover mitigates atmosphere-ocean gas exchange, the Arctic Ocean takes up carbon dioxide (CO2) on the order of ‑66 to ‑199 Tg C year‑1 (1012 g C), contributing 5–14% to the global balance of CO2 sinks and sources. Because of this, the Arctic Ocean has an important influence on the global carbon cycle, with the marine carbon cycle and atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchanges sensitive to Arctic Ocean and global climate change feedbacks. In the near-term, further sea-ice loss and increases in phytoplankton growth rates are expected to increase the uptake of CO2 by Arctic Ocean surface waters, although mitigated somewhat by surface warming in the Arctic. Thus, the capacity of the Arctic Ocean to uptake CO2 is expected to alter in response to environmental changes driven largely by climate. These changes are likely to continue to modify the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of the Arctic Ocean in ways that are not yet fully understood. In surface waters, sea-ice melt, river runoff, cooling and uptake of CO2 through air-sea gas exchange combine to decrease the calcium carbonate (CaCO3) mineral saturation states (Ω) of seawater while seasonal phytoplankton primary production (PP) mitigates this effect. Biological amplification of ocean acidification effects in subsurface waters, due to the remineralization of organic matter, is likely to reduce the ability of many species to produce CaCO3 shells or tests with profound implications for Arctic marine ecosystems

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009BGeo...6.2433B
 
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  • #32
Bill Illis said:
I guess I have a number of issues with the standard explanations for the physics of global warming (and thanks to sylas and Xnn for indulging me here):

No problem; questions are good!

First, the Stefan-Boltzmann equations are the fundamental equations governing radiation physics and temperature. I really think that global warming theory needs to be consistent in some form with these proven and successful equations.

I think I just showed that it is, didn't I?

Let me make one quick suggestion; as an advertisement. I think you are going to love this.

Ray Pierrehumbert of the University of Chicago is about to bring out a new undergraduate level textbook on climate science, and the book is really excellent for someone who wants just the science and who loves maths -- which seems like it might be you. It gets very technical, but you can dip into bits of it at a time. The whole draft is up on the website as a link to an 18 Mbyte pdf. The book is basically finished, and it is going to publishers soon, and this draft will be removed, apparently. Get yourself a copy now, while you still can! I have found this a really useful resource for learning about the underlying background and physics of energy flows in the atmosphere.

The web page for the book is The Climate Book, and the link to the pdf is in "Current draft" and he's still soliciting comment on this draft. When the book comes out, it will be
  • Pierrehumbert, Ray. "Principles of Planetary Climate" (Cambridge University Press, 2010)

This goes through basic underlying physics to let you infer (or at least understand how to infer) from first principles such things as lapse rate, tropopause height, surface temperature, and so on, for essentially any planet. It is designed to be used as a teaching text, in which students solve such problems at all levels of detail, up to major computing projects. The book also comes with lots of supporting computer code. In brief, this does climate without weather. It goes very deep into simple energy flow models without using the fluid dynamics that would be needed for all the details of circulation and currents in the atmosphere and oceans.

Chapter 2 is thermodynamics in a nutshell, and chapter 3 is elementary models of radiation balance -- and specifically this is where Stefan-Boltzman law is introduced.

Third, there are four different levels of the atmosphere which are emitting at 240 W/m2. Traditionally, the tropopause is defined as the level where the Earth is in equilibrium with the Solar forcing - the first level where that occurs is about 4 kms up - lower than the top of Mount Everest and lower than the definition of the tropopause.

The atmosphere is transparent, to varying degrees. If you look at a thin slice of atmosphere at a specific level, it radiates almost nothing. When you look downwards, you are receiving radiation from all the levels below. The atmosphere is not a grey body. That is a useful teaching simplification to get started on some of the principles, but in general you can't actually use Stefan-Boltzman laws. You need frequency dependent equations, or the Planck radiation laws. Here's typical spectrum of emission from the top of the atmosphere.
spectrum-375-labeled.GIF

I've added some labels to point to various features. As you can see, the spectrum is not a simple blackbody spectrum. In some bands, the atmosphere is pretty much transparent. In these bands, the spectrum follows closely the curve for a temperature of about 288K; this is thermal radiation coming up from the surface.

In other bands, the atmosphere is almost opaque. The "saturated region" is an example, and here the curve closely follows a spectrum for close to 220K, which is the temperature of the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Basically, the only radiation in this band that can escape to space is emitted from high in the atmosphere, where it is cold. This is mainly a CO2 absorption band.

The complex behaviour on the left hand side of the diagram is caused mainly by the greenhouse effects of water vapour, which is not well mixed throughout the atmosphere, and hence does not have a simple relationship to a particular temperature. The effective emission altitudes in this band are somewhere in the troposphere.

Now in your diagram, the vertical axis is distance. Physically, it is easier to use pressure as a vertical co-ordinate, as this actually tells you the mass of the atmosphere at any level. Check out Earth Atmosphere Model, an education site at NASA. This represents the atmosphere in three bands: the troposphere with temperature falling with altitude, the lower stratosphere with near constant temperature, and the upper stratosphere with temperatures rising with altitude. In this model, the pressure tells you that about 2.5% of the atmosphere by mass is above the lower stratosphere... the region of your graph with constant temperature. Everything above that has minimal effect on Earth's energy balance. It's just too thin.

At any given altitude, you will have radiant energy flowing up, and down. As well as this, in the troposphere you have energy flowing upwards by convection, including latent heat. This is what maintains the lapse rate in the troposphere. At each level, you absorb a small amount of the radiation, and also emit a small amount based on temperature, according to the frequency dependent Plank radiation laws.

This all gets very technical in full detail, but by the time you finish chapter 4 of the text, you have pretty much what you need to explain and derive temperature profiles in an atmosphere of a given composition and with a given solar input.

Fourth, all the effective action of the greenhouse effect operates below this 4 km level. We use the term "Emissivity or even the Lapse Rate" but isn't this really just the time delay it takes for an Infra-Red photon from the surface to random walk/bounce around the atmosphere and the surface before it reaches the 4 km level and eventually escapes back into space.

The level of the tropopause varies with latitude. Emissivity and lapse rate has nothing at all to do with time delays. Lapse rate is mostly determined by the thermodynamics of adiabatic movement of air. Emissivity is simply a measure of how effective a material is at interacting with radiation. It is frequency dependent, and in an atmosphere you have emissivity per unit mass, which ends up letting you define an "optical depth", or a measure of transparency.

Fifth, since these issues are so complicated and prone to error, why do we not look at the empirical evidence of the paleoclimate to provide an independent verification of the theory. Since the issues are so theoritical, we should go back to ground and see what has really happened in the climate per doubling of CO2. The actual/estimated temperature and CO2 history of the climate does not verify the 3.0C per doubling estimate. The paleoclimate is only consistent with 1.0C to 1.5C per doubling.

We do look at paleoclimate. But the available data is not sufficient to give you great accuracy; I have never seen anyone proposing such a tightly constrained sensitivity estimate from paleoclimate data. Neither have I seen such a low estimate. Do you have a reference?

The most important period for helping constrain climate sensitivity is the Last Glacial Maximum.
From the abstract:
Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2-4.3oC and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1oC.[/color]​

Maybe I am way off base here, but these issues are not addressed in the standard explanation. It only takes a 25% error in the estimates from the standard explanation to make a huge difference in the global warming per doubling estimate.

You are not at all off base in noting that sensitivity estimates are very uncertain. They tend to be in the range 2 to 4.5 degrees per 2xCO2. However, as I have noted, this sensitivity depends on the various complex feedback processes at work, and cannot be inferred from a simple non-feedback Stefan-Boltzman treatment.

Cheers -- sylas
 
  • #33
Bill Illis said:
We use the term "Emissivity or even the Lapse Rate" but isn't this really just the time delay it takes for an Infra-Red photon from the surface to random walk/bounce around the atmosphere and the surface before it reaches the 4 km level and eventually escapes back into space.

No, emissivity and the lapse rate are two entirely different properties from each other and from the time it takes a photon to bounce around.

When a photon enters Earth atmosphere 1 of 2 things happen.
First, it might just be reflected and will immediately exit the Earth atmosphere.
In this case, the time is measured in nanoseconds since light travels so fast.
Second, it might be absorbed. If it gets absorbed, then it will be re-radiated according to the stefan Boltzmann law. By this law, the re-radiated energy will be somewhere in the infrared part of the spectrum which is readily absorbed by all the greenhouse gases and clouds in the atmosphere. I've never seen any authoritative estimate of how long it takes these infrared photons to make it into outer space, but I know that some of them never do. Instead, the energy is transported by thermals or water vapor. That it, mechanical process are important within the troposphere.

Anyhow, emissivity of the atmosphere is basically the ratio between the outgoing infrared radiation at the top of the atmosphere compared to the flux on the surface. It is a unitless number as it is just a ratio. CO2 levels have a direct influence on emissivity.

Lapse rate is how quickly the atmosphere cools off with elevation. There is probably some complicated relationship between emissivity and lapse rate, but I've never seen one.
Bill Illis said:
Fifth, since these issues are so complicated and prone to error, why do we not look at the empirical evidence of the paleoclimate to provide an independent verification of the theory.

Sylas provided a good response, but I'll like to add the the middle plicone is also being studied. The conclusions are that there is more warming found during that time than can be explained with the standard 2-4.5C/CO2 doubling. This is due to changes in vegetation and melting of Greenland and Antarctica; feedbacks which have not been taken into account by most climate models.http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/199704_pliocene/page2.html
 
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  • #34
I'm impressed by all contributors! :) Everyone is eager to add to the pot of information. I do like that.
 
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  • #35
Xnn said:
Sylas provided a good response, but I'll like to add the the middle plicone is also being studied. The conclusions are that there is more warming found during that time than can be explained with the standard 2-4.5C/CO2 doubling. This is due to changes in vegetation and melting of Greenland and Antarctica; feedbacks which have not been taken into account by most climate models.


http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/199704_pliocene/page2.html

Xnn in a previous article I presented stated, "The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2 exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks . . . ." That was my third posting on the previous page.

May I please see the climate models you are referring to that don't take into account the
'melting of Greenland and Antarctica which represent to you 'most climate models'. Thanks.
 
  • #36
An internationally known peer-reviewed journal NATURE has an article and commentary in the News section.

Published online 16 December 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.1146

Sea level rise may exceed worst expectations
Seas were nearly 10 metres higher than now in previous interglacial period.
Richard A. Lovett

With climate talks stalling in Copenhagen, a study suggests that one problem, sea level rise, may be even more urgent than previously thought.

Robert Kopp, a palaeoclimatologist at Princeton University in New Jersey, and his colleagues examined sea level rise during the most recent previous interglacial stage, about 125,000 years ago. It was a time when the climate was similar to that predicted for our future, with average polar temperatures about 3-5°C warmer than now.

Other studies have looked at this era, but most focused on sea level changes in only a few locales and local changes may not fully reflect global changes. Sea level can rise, for example, if the land is subsiding. It can also be affected by changes in the mass distribution of Earth. For example, says Kopp, ice-age glaciers have enough gravity to pull water slightly polewards. When the glaciers melt, water moves back towards the Equator. To adjust for such effects, Kopp's team compiled sea-level data from over 30 sites across the globe.

"We could go to a lot of different places and look at coral reefs or intertidal sediments or beaches that are now stranded above sea level, and build a reasonably large database of sea-level indicators," says Kopp.

The team reports1 in Nature today that the sea probably rose about 6.6–9.4 metres above present-day levels during the previous period between ice ages. When it was at roughly its present level, the average rate of rise was probably 56–92 centimetres a century. "[That is] faster than the current rate of sea level rise by a factor of about two or three," Kopp says, warning that if the poles warm as expected, a similar accelleration in sea-level rise might occur in future.

Climate meltdown
The study is "very sophisticated", says Peter Clark, a geologist at Oregon State University in Corvallis. "A lot more of the existing ice sheets at the time must have melted than was thought to be the case," he says, such as parts of Greenland and Antarctica.

The implications are disconcerting, says Clark. If the world warms up to levels comparable to those 125,000 years ago, "we can expect a large fraction of the Greenland ice sheet and some part of the Antarctic ice sheet, mostly likely West Antarctica, to melt. That's clearly in sight with where we're heading."

Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona in Tucson agrees. "Earth's polar ice sheets may be more vulnerable to climate change than commonly believed," he says.

Furthermore, even if global warming causes seas to start rising toward the levels seen 125,000 years ago, there is no reason to presume that it will proceed at the relatively sedate rate of 6-9 millimeters a year seen by Kopp's study. In part, that's because his study didn't have the resolution to spot changes on a year-by-year basis, so there's nothing to say that the rise during the last interglacial didn't occur in shorter, faster spurts, undetectable in Kopp's data.

Near future warming will also be driven by potentially faster-moving processes than those of the last interglacial. "The driver of [climate change during the last interglacial period] was slow changes in Earth's orbit, happening over thousands of years," says Stefan Rahmstorf, an ocean scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. "We're now set to cause several degrees of global warming within just a century. I would expect this to drive a much faster sea level rise."

Some scientists think that we may already be committed to a future with higher seas than had been expected. "There could be a global warming tipping point beyond which many metres of sea level rise is inevitable unless global greenhouse-gas emissions are cut dramatically, and soon," warns Overpeck.

"I have spent a lot of time talking with national security decision-makers in this country and abroad about the security implications of climate change," says Marc Levy, deputy director of the Center for International Earth Science Information Network at Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York. "I've consistently witnessed an inability on their part to take sea-level risks seriously. This study helps frame the risks in ways that decision-makers can better understand."
•References
1.Kopp, R. E., Simons, F. J., Mitrovica, J. X., Maloof, A. C. & Oppenheimer, M. Nature 462, 863-867 (2009). Article
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091216/full/news.2009.1146.html

Here is the ARTICLE.


Article
Nature 462, 863-867 (17 December 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature08686; Received 27 February 2009; Accepted 11 November 2009


Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage
Robert E. Kopp1,2, Frederik J. Simons1, Jerry X. Mitrovica3, Adam C. Maloof1 & Michael Oppenheimer1,2

1.Department of Geosciences,
2.Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA
3.Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
Correspondence to: Robert E. Kopp1,2 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to R.E.K. (Email: rkopp@alumni.caltech.edu).

Abstract
With polar temperatures ~3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (~125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

1.Department of Geosciences,
2.Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA
3.Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
Correspondence to: Robert E. Kopp1,2 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to R.E.K. (Email: rkopp@alumni.caltech.edu).
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08686.html
 
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  • #37
ViewsofMars said:
Xnn in a previous article I presented stated, "The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2 exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks . . . ." That was my third posting on the previous page.

May I please see the climate models you are referring to that don't take into account the
'melting of Greenland and Antarctica which represent to you 'most climate models'. Thanks.

Here's a link to the http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo706.html".

Here is the abstract:

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earth|[rsquo]|s climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30–50|[percnt]| greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system.

Most current climate models only include fast acting changes such as water vapor, clouds and sea ice. Such models tend to underestimate the amount of warming found during the middle pliocene. Geolocigal records from the middle pliocene indicate about 30 to 50% more warmer than found with feedbacks included with traditional models. Slow changes in Ice sheets and vegetation have traditionally been ignored by climate models. By slow, we are talking about process that require hundreds of years.
 
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  • #38
There was another study published in Science in December that constrained the CO2 estimates at 3 million years ago to 250 ppm (300 ppm at 3.3 Mya; 325 ppm at 5 Mya; 200 ppm at 8 Mya; 400 ppm at 15 Mya and 350 ppm at 20 Mya) which are consistent/sometimes a little higher than the ones I presented before.

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/tripati.etal.sci.2009.pdf

Published in ScienceExpress in October, reprinted in Science on December 4, 2009
 
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  • #39
How can I tell that these studies are rigorous enough and can not be falsified? There is virtually no funding directed towards the criticism, why should I expect to see an unbiased picture? True, there is no professional criticism, but why should we expect it?

There was an article in the news: "Climate skeptic Pat Michaels refuses court request to disclose funding sources" - why should he disclose that information? It is his science that we should be interested in, that should be rigorously falsified, definitely not his funding sources.

Here is a nice site (don't worry, no criticism on that site) http://www.heatisonline.org/disinformation.cfm, just search for 'funding'. Why cutting the funding for professional skepticism should be considered as a good, well balanced approach?
 
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  • #40
Bill;

Wow! That's a very impressive paper.
When pCO2 levels were last similar to modern values (greater than 350 to 400 ppmv), there was little glacial ice on land, or sea ice in the Arctic, and a marine-based ice mass on Antarctica was not viable.

What they mean by marine based-ice mass, is that glaciers and ice shelves were not able to exist at sea level and were constrained to higher inland elevations of the continent.
The highest estimates of pCO2 occur during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ~16 to 14 Ma), the only interval in our record with levels higher than the 2009 value of 387 ppmv. Climate proxies indicate the MMCO was associated with reduced ice volume and globally higher sea level (25 to 40 meters) (3), as well as warmer surface and deep-water temperatures (2, 20).

From the charts; it looks like CO2 levels were around 440 ppm (375 to 475) during the MMCO.

Currently, CO2 levels are rising about 2ppm/year. So, we could reach 440 ppm within 25 years.
 
  • #41
dmtr said:
How can I tell that these studies are rigorous enough and can not be falsified? There is virtually no funding directed towards the criticism, why should I expect to see an unbiased picture? True, there is no professional criticism, but why should we expect it?

Actually, there is a healthy amount of professional criticism. The trick is discerning between legitimate scientific criticisms and those that are politically motivated. Generally, if somebody publishes legitimate scientific research, it makes its way into the more prestigeous science journals where it is read by a number of knowledgeable people. Then other researchers will attempt to repeat the work or conduct additional studies that either extend the knowledge or contradict it. It's a continuous ongoing process.

When it comes to climate studies, every few years there is a collection of scientists that get together, review all the new papers and write up a summary. If something is questionable, or not well understood, then it is identified as having a low level of understanding.

Here is a link to the 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html" .
 
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  • #42
Xnn said:
Actually, there is a healthy amount of professional criticism. The trick is discerning between legitimate scientific criticisms and those that are politically motivated. Generally, if somebody publishes legitimate scientific research, it makes its way into the more prestigeous science journals where it is read by a number of knowledgeable people. Then other researchers will attempt to repeat the work or conduct additional studies that either extend the knowledge or contradict it. It's a continuous ongoing process.

Can somebody give several examples, when some erroneous (and major) paper favoring the global warming was withdrawn due to criticism?

These examples will show very clearly, that there is a healthy amount of criticism. Lack of these examples again will show that there is no criticism. And you know what that signifies.
 
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  • #43
Criticism comes easily to many!

dmtr said:
Can somebody give several examples, when some erroneous major paper favoring the global warming was withdrawn due to criticism?

United Press International
01-22-2004
Cosmic cause to global warming discredited

WASHINGTON, Jan 22, 2004 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Putting the blame for global warming on cosmic rays is just so much hot air, say 11 scientists writing in the American Geophysical Union's journal Eos.

The article in the Jan. 27 issue of Eos claims a recent paper attributing most climate change on Earth to cosmic rays is incorrect and based on questionable methodology.

Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv and geologist Jan Veizer wrote in the Geological Society of America's journal GSA Today they found a correlation between cosmic rays and temperature evolution over hundreds of millions of years, and ...

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-89667992.html

Climate Alarmists will be Discredited in 2008
Share: by atomcat | January 10, 2008 at 07:36 am
585 views | 2 Recommendations | 1 comment2008 will be the year that the climate alarmists will be discredited
Media Promotes Global Warming Alarmism by Jack Kelly at RealClearPolitics via Yahoo News:

About this time last year, Dr. Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit of East Anglia University in Britain, predicted 2007 would be the warmest year on record.

It didn’t turn out that way. 2007 was only the 9th warmest year since global temperature readings were first made in 1861.

2007 was also the coldest year of this century, noted Czech physicist Lubos Motl.

Both global warming alarmists like Dr. Jones and skeptics like Dr. Motl forecast that this year will be slightly cooler than last year. If so, that means it will be a decade since the high water mark in global temperature was set in 1998.

And the trend line is down. Average global temperature in 2007 was lower than for 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001. November of last year was the coldest month since January of 2000, and December was colder still. “Global warming has stopped,” said David Whitehouse, former science editor for the BBC. “It’s not a viewpoint or a skeptic’s inaccuracy. It’s an observational fact.”

http://www.nowpublic.com/environment/climate-alarmists-will-be-discredited-2008

Central Plank Of Global Warming Alarmism Discredited

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Monday, April 14, 2008
One of the central philosophies of climate change alarmism and an image that adorned the cover of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth - the contention that global warming causes deadly hurricanes – has been completely discredited by the expert who first proposed it.
Hurricane buff and professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT Kerry Emanuel asserted for over 20 years that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms and he shot to prominence just one month before Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when he delivered the "final proof" that global warming was already causing extreme weather events and wrecking livelihoods.

Emanuel was subsequently acknowledged with a place in Time Magazine’s "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.

Al Gore was so inspired by Emanuel’s research that he devoted the iconic front cover image of his 2006 movie An Inconvenient Truth to his warning, portraying a hurricane emerging from a Co2-belching smokestack.


An inconvenient cover image – Al Gore’s depiction of global warming’s contribution to hurricanes has been completely discredited.

Unfortunately for the church of environmentalism, who ceaselessly profess to have a monopoly on truth and insist that "the debate is over" on global warming, Emanuel has completely recanted his position and now admits that hurricanes and storms will actually decline over the next 200 years and have little or no correlation with global temperature change whatsoever.

http://www.infowars.com/central-plank-of-global-warming-alarmism-discredited/

Here is the latest sampling of studies and scientists debunking Mann's "new hockey stick." Updated as of September 25, 2008.

http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cach...+discredited&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=safari

Ocean Fertilization 'Fix' For Global Warming Discredited By New Research

ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2007) — Scientists have revealed an important discovery that raises doubts concerning the viability of plans to fertilize the ocean to solve global warming, a projected $100 billion venture.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071129132753.htm

POZNAN, Poland - The UN global warming conference currently underway in Poland is about to face a serious challenge from over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe who are criticizing the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore. Set for release this week, a newly updated U.S. Senate Minority Report features the dissenting voices of over 650 international scientists, many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN. The report has added about 250 scientists (and growing) in 2008 to the over 400 scientists who spoke out in 2007. The over 650 dissenting scientists are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.

The U.S. Senate report is the latest evidence of the growing groundswell of scientific opposition rising to challenge the UN and Gore. Scientific meetings are now being dominated by a growing number of skeptical scientists. The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists' equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices and views of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. [See Full report Here: & See: Skeptical scientists overwhelm conference: '2/3 of presenters and question-askers were hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC' ]

http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/sma...issent-over-manmade-global-warming-claim.html
 
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  • #44
baywax said:
Criticism comes easily to many!

What you gave is a list of 'criticism' papers (and indications that some of them were withdrawn, good science at work!). I was not asking for it. Let's try to make a list of withdrawn papers favoring the climate change.

Some of the papers favoring the climate change should have been erroneous. If there is a healthy criticism, these errors should have been spotted and the papers withdrawn. It would be a good indicator of a good science.
 
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  • #45
dmtr said:
Some of the papers favoring the climate change should have been erroneous. If there is a healthy criticism, these errors should have been spotted and the papers withdrawn. It would be a good indicator of a good science.

This is a false assumption.

Each paper stands individually on it's own merits. Papers are submitted to a publisher for peer review. When a paper passes the peer review it is published in the journal. If it does not pass review it can be corrected and resubmitted. I have never heard of a paper being withdrawn.

Take the time to understand the underlying physics, then you won't need to speculate about the science. Basing your judgment on how many mistakes are made is not very scientific.
 
  • #46
Skyhunter said:
I have never heard of a paper being withdrawn.

Well. I have. It is a part of the normal scientific process. There are always mistakes and withdrawn papers. I can give you any number of examples in biology, physics, cosmology, etc. Withdrawn papers is a good indicator that errors are being spotted, that some healthy criticism is present.

Skyhunter said:
Basing your judgment on how many mistakes are made is not very scientific.

On how many mistakes have been caught.
 
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  • #47
dmtr said:
Well. I did. It is a part of the normal scientific process. There are always mistakes and withdrawn papers. I can give you any number of examples in biology, physics, cosmology, etc. Withdrawn papers is a good indicator that errors are being spotted, that some healthy criticism is present.

Papers are not usually withdrawn merely for being erroneous. To actually withdraw a paper is very unusual, and usually indicates something more drastic; fraud or plagiarism.

I'm not sure how useful it is to look for recognized errors in papers; but it can be an interesting insight into the scientific process. I suggest setting the bar a bit lower.

I can give examples of papers that have had significant corrections acknowledged in print by the authors. These are not merely new improved results, but specific identification of a clear source of error that had a major impact on the result.

This is not particularly unusual, I think; but generally it will involve an isolated unusual claim that turns out to have been overstated, rather than identification of some error which undermines a whole well established body of theory. That is what would be required to show anthropogenic global warming was based on an error.

The examples I am thinking of are not exactly "skeptic" papers, but they did stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate, and turned out to have been incorrect, as acknowledged by everyone involved.
  • Tropical warming trends in the troposphere were substantially underestimated by John Christy's satellite temperature estimating group at the University of Atlanta Huntsville (UAH). The erroneous measure was a substantial conflict with climate models, but was resolved in 2005 when it was pointed out that they had made a sign error in corrections for a day night cycle. The error was acknowledged and corrected as soon it was pointed out. The UAH group continues to publish, of course, using the new corrected data and suitably revised conclusions.
  • Estimates of a sharp rise in Earth's albedo were published in 2004, and again in 2006, based on measurements of reflected light from the Moon by Palle and colleagues. This was presented as indicating an albedo based forcing much larger than the carbon dioxide forcing. However, the rise was actually due to problems with a telescope, and the corrections were published in 2008 by the same group.
  • Ocean warming estimates by Josh Willis, based on the network of robotic floats (ARGO), initially indicated significant cooling of the oceans. These results were discovered to have been distorted by problems with the pressure sensors on floats. These floats would regularly sink down and record temperature profiles with depth, then resurface and transmit results. But the sensors meant that the depth information was incorrect, and when corrected in 2008, the cooling effect was discovered to be an error.
  • Steven Schwartz in 2007 published a very low estimate for climate sensitivity based on relaxation times in the temperature record. The paper was quickly followed by a rash of rebuttals in the same journal, which Schwartz recognized and in 2008 published a follow up substantially revising the sensitivity estimate upwards.

I am sure it will not be hard to add to this list.

Cheers -- sylas
 
  • #48
sylas said:
Papers are not usually withdrawn merely for being erroneous. To actually withdraw a paper is very unusual, and usually indicates something more drastic; fraud or plagiarism.

I'm not sure how useful it is to look for recognized errors in papers; but it can be an interesting insight into the scientific process. I suggest setting the bar a bit lower.

Here is a recent example of a major paper being retracted. I can give you quite a few in biology and chemistry. http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091209/full/462707a.html
This withdrawal is a good indicator that there is healthy criticism in chemistry. Peer review can't spot everything. And it is ok.

EDIT: Yeah, it's an excellent idea to set the bar lower and look for significant corrections as well.

sylas said:
The examples I am thinking of are not exactly "skeptic" papers, but they did stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate, and turned out to have been incorrect, as acknowledged by everyone involved.

I'm asking for examples of corrections and retractions of papers that did NOT stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate.
 
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  • #49
dmtr said:
I'm asking for examples of corrections and retractions of papers that did NOT stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate.

Oh, I know. I'm just proposing an easier target for baywax to consider, and demonstrating this is in principle possible to answer. I think he'll still find the weaker challenge difficult. All the examples I have given are the other way around, indicating problems in challenges to conventional ideas.

This is as one should expect; it's the unusual or surprising results that are most often afflicted with errors; and the main body of conventional climate is based on an enormous amount of mutually supporting evidence.

The ball is now with baywax to see if he can find acknowledged errors. Not merely disagreements that are as subject to error as the original work... and perhaps more so.

Cheers -- sylas
 
  • #50
sylas said:
Oh, I know. I'm just proposing an easier target for baywax to consider, and demonstrating this is in principle possible to answer. I think he'll still find the weaker challenge difficult. All the examples I have given are the other way around, indicating problems in challenges to conventional ideas.

Sure. It's an excellent idea to look for significant corrections as well.
 
  • #52
dmtr said:
I've found a couple through Google Scholar, via the search 'Retracted' in the title. http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=allintitle:+retracted
But both have been retracted due to duplications, that does not require any rigorous professional criticism. Not a good evidence...

Actually, that is evidence of what amounts to a type of plagiarism.

Getting published in a quality science journal is something of a ticket in the world of academia. Besides looking our for quacks, the editors of such journals need to be on the lookout for those who are sand baggers. That is PHD's who are hoping to get some grant money or tenure but are not doing anything original or useful. So, what you've found are examples of where the editors have not done a good job.
 
  • #53
Xnn said:
Actually, that is evidence of what amounts to a type of plagiarism.

Getting published in a quality science journal is something of a ticket in the world of academia. Besides looking our for quacks, the editors of such journals need to be on the lookout for those who are sand baggers. That is PHD's who are hoping to get some grant money or tenure but are not doing anything original or useful. So, what you've found are examples of where the editors have not done a good job.

Editors of journals such as Nature and Science have done and continue to do a fine job. The articles are peer-reviewed prior to being published in such journals.

Here's an excellent example of of a retraction.

Published online 18 December 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.1152

News

Retracted papers linked to 2007 extortion attempt
Researcher was sent e-mail demanding money.

Erika Check Hayden

Two papers retracted in the past few months have been linked to an extortion attempt. Both papers originated from the laboratory of Peter Schultz, a prominent chemist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California.

Documents seen recently by Nature show that in 2007, law enforcement officials in San Diego considered a former postdoctoral fellow from the Schultz lab as a possible suspect after another received an anonymous e-mail demanding a $4,000 payment and threatening to reveal alleged fraud.


Peter Schultz.
SCHULTZ LABOfficials did not pursue the case after the recipient of the e-mail decided not to press charges.

The retracted papers were published in Science1 and the Journal of the American Chemical Society (JACS)2. They claimed to describe the successful incorporation of amino acids linked to sugars at specific positions in proteins made by the bacterium Escherichia coli3. The results were seen as important because proteins with attached sugars, or glycoproteins, are common in nature and are used as drug therapies, but they are hard to produce in the lab using E. coli.

Anonymous e-mail
On 1 March 2007, Zhiwen Zhang, the first author on the Science paper and the third author on the JACS paper, received an e-mail that read in part: "you have fraud on at least 3 papers and you stole library material– I found proof." The author of the e-mail asked Zhang to send cash to a post office box in San Diego, and threatened that if Zhang did not comply, e-mails would be sent to Schultz, Scripps president Richard Lerner, and other scientists and administrators at Scripps and at the University of Texas at Austin, where Zhang began working after he left the Schultz lab in 2004.

The author of the e-mail used the pseudonym "michael pemulis", a reference to the David Foster Wallace novel Infinite Jest. The e-mail said that Schultz "will retract all your post-doctoral work", including the two now-retracted papers, and promised "you lose job".

Zhang says he did not commit fraud. "I did no wrong, no scientific misconduct and no fraud," he says. "I am the victim of an extortion case, and I have suffered dearly."

The e-mail was forwarded to law enforcement officials in San Diego. In March 2007, a southern California multi-agency task force, the Computer and Technology Crime High-Tech Response Team, obtained warrants to search the records of Internet service providers in connection with the case. On 6 April, an officer with the task force notified Zhang that it considered Eric Tippmann, who overlapped with Zhang while both were postdoctoral fellows in Schultz's lab in 2004, to be a suspect. Zhang says that after consulting with Schultz and Lerner, he decided not to press criminal charges. Law enforcement officials have confirmed that the investigation is closed.

Tippmann denies sending the extortion e-mail or contacting Zhang after Zhang left the Schultz lab. "If I was ever briefly mentioned in any investigation, I was never contacted nor interviewed, so this must have been a very short investigation," Tippman wrote in an e-mail.

In August of this year, Tippmann and his colleagues published a study4 claiming that the experiments reported in the now-retracted papers could not have worked as described. However, Tippmann says he first became concerned about the papers in 2006 after he noticed what he alleges are similarities between mass spectra shown in the retracted JACS paper2 and in an earlier JACS paper5 from the Schultz lab. Tippmann says he also noticed other inconsistencies in some of the lab's papers. For instance, the mass of a myoglobin protein containing a sugar molecule described in the 2004 Science paper1 was reported to be nearly the same as that of a myoglobin lacking a sugar and containing a natural amino acid that was described in the 2004 JACS paper2. Tippmann says he told Schultz and other lab members about these issues, and raised concerns about other work published by the lab. Tippmann, now at Cardiff University in Wales, says he was motivated to raise the concerns after watching other lab members fail to replicate the work.

Zhang calls the issues raised by Tippmann "irrelevant". "It's all false and misleading, and it has all been cleared up," says Zhang, who says that Scripps has looked into the matter and cleared him of fraud and misconduct.

Reproducibility
Schultz says that he has reproduced all of the results questioned by Tippmann, including other work that Zhang was involved in, except for the experiments that have now been retracted. He says that he is unsure why the mass spectra in the 2003 and 2004 JACS papers contain some similarities. "My guess is in that case a mistake was made," Schultz says. "That certainly indicates things were done sloppily, which, frankly, is not the case in my other publications."

As for the Science paper, it is possible, Schultz says, that Zhang interpreted a myoglobin without an attached sugar that appeared as a contaminant in the mass spectrum as the glycomyoglobin he intended to make. "Unfortunately without the original notebooks I can't reproduce all the original experiments exactly as they were, and see what was done right and what was done wrong," Schultz says.

"I don't think fraud was committed," says Schultz. He adds that in attempting to reproduce the work reported in the retracted papers, the team "found complexities that were really unusual", such as key experiments that sometimes gave misleading results.

Zhang says that he stands by his original work. He says it is possible that Schultz's lab failed to replicate the retracted papers because it used different conditions or procedures from those he used for the original papers. The lab notebooks describing the original experiments "are no longer available", according to the retraction in Science.

In November 2007, Walter Fast, an associate professor in the same division as Zhang at the University of Texas at Austin, received an anonymous letter, claiming to be from a member of the Schultz lab, alleging that the 2004 Science paper was "fake". Fast says he gave the letter to Zhang and says that Zhang later told him that Scripps had investigated the matter and had not found any wrongdoing. The retractions "came up right when [Zhang] was going for tenure, and it's been hard for him", Fast says.

Lynn Crismon, dean of the school of pharmacy at the University of Texas at Austin, says that tenure decisions are still under review by the university president's executive committee.

With reporting by Rex Dalton.

References
1.Zhang, Z. et al. Science 303, 371-373 (2004).
2.Xu, R. et al. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 126, 15654-15655 (2004).
3.Check Hayden, E. Nature 462, 707 (2009).
4.Antonczak, A. K., Simova, Z. & Tippmann, E. M. J. Biol. Chem. 284, 28795-28800 (2009).
5.Alfonta, L., Zhang, Z., Uryu, S., Loo, J. A. & Schultz, P. G. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 125, 14662-14663 (2003).
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091218/full/news.2009.1152.html
 
  • #54
ViewsofMars said:
Editors of journals such as Nature and Science have done and continue to do a fine job. The articles are peer-reviewed prior to being published in such journals.

Here's an excellent example of of a retraction.

This paper have nothing to do with the climate science. I'm asking for examples of significant corrections (alters the result) and retractions of mainstream climate science papers (papers that did not stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate).

The presence of these corrections and retractions would have been a good indicator that healthy professional criticism is present and errors are being caught.
 
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  • #55
dmtr said:
This paper have nothing to do with the climate science. I'm asking for examples of significant corrections (alters the result) and retractions of mainstream climate science papers (papers that did not stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate).

The presence of these corrections and retractions would have been a good indicator that healthy professional criticism is present and errors are being caught.

It was 'a sample of a retraction' which I addressed to Xnn claim. I absolutely without hesitation detest the attempt made by people on-line to debunk or slam dunk internationally peer-reviewed journals such as Nature and Science. Retractions are not made by editors was my point. They are made by scientists themselves. In which case the original Nature article itself didn't need retraction. Errors ? No.

You seem to be attempting to proclaim negligence is the factor when that is not the case with such journals as Nature and Science, which are internationally known to be peer-reviewed prior to print within the journal itself.

Xnn previously posted an article from Science Express. Here is a snippet from Science Express. (Best to read the whole page.)

What is Science Express?
Science Express provides rapid electronic publication of selected research papers, Perspectives, and other articles that have recently been accepted for publication in Science. Each week we select several papers for online publication in PDF format within two weeks of acceptance. For authors, it's a chance to get their peer-reviewed results in front of the scientific community as much as four to six weeks before they would otherwise appear in print. For readers, it's an opportunity to connect with these hot results immediately.
http://www.sciencemag.org/feature/express/introduction.dtl

Of course after the review process, an editor may or may not edit the paper prior to print.

The scientific community is alive and healthy. LOL! It's not based on opinions. It's based on evidence.
 
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  • #56
This is an interesting discussion to be sure. Sylas I couldn't help but notice you changed DMTR's original quote in your response from "I have" his, to "I did" yours. Would you explain?


sylas said:
Well. I did. It is a part of the normal scientific process. There are always mistakes and withdrawn papers. I can give you any number of examples in biology, physics, cosmology, etc. Withdrawn papers is a good indicator that errors are being spotted, that some healthy criticism is present.
Cheers -- sylas

I think DMTR's question and implied criticism of the "climate" peer review system is valid in light of the what appear to have been long-term and successful ventures to frustrate the publishing of skeptic papers. I think what he is saying is 'If there isn't a good ole boys network in place you can show me by...). If (as he says) it's the case in other areas of scientific endeavors that papers in support of the prevailing theories are withdrawn, what would make a subject as contentious as climate the exception? Seems a reasonable inquiry.

As for the original topic, I am far from an expert (frankly I think the gulf between scientist and expert on matters of Earth's climate is vast with many of the former considering themselves the latter when likely none qualify) but tend to agree that if the measurements and temperature reconstructions are accurate we are and have been experiencing a trend toward warmer. I also believe that humans have contributed and continue to contribute to the soup that is Earth's climate. IMO the impact of both is greatly exaggerated thus creating a man made crisis. In political terms crisis=expediency. And if you don't believe politics is a primary driver on both sides of the issue, as opposed to the "other side" being driven by it, perhaps you are a denier. At the levels of money and power at play few, if any, are pure of intention.

Now if I may a question or 2:

1) Hypothetically, if every unnatural (meaning human?) source of CO2 was stopped today, what impact would it have on the Earth's climate and how long would it take to propagate?

2) Hypothetically, if no change in CO2 output from unnatural (meaning human?) sources occurs and in 100 years the AGT has increased 5c, what are the chances of the resulting environment on Earth being more hospitable to human life?

Thanks.
 
  • #57
flatcp said:
This is an interesting discussion to be sure. Sylas I couldn't help but notice you changed DMTR's original quote in your response from "I have" his, to "I did" yours. Would you explain?

I would guess it must be because dmtr edited his post after I had begun the reply. You can see this from the date stamps. (I take more than 2 minutes to write a post.)

Now if I may a question or 2:

Sure. Were you wanting my answers in particular? On that assumption...

I am not a professional expert, but I have studied a lot of the background over the years and I think I can give a pretty good summary of the conventional understanding of these things, and expand with references if required. You should take this as a guide, but check further for yourself from established references. A convenient start point with links to the major literature is the IPCC 4th AR, which is linked from the [thread=74462]Reviews on Global Warming[/thread] sticky thread.

With that caution in mind, here are my answers for your two questions.

flatcp said:
1) Hypothetically, if every unnatural (meaning human?) source of CO2 was stopped today, what impact would it have on the Earth's climate and how long would it take to propagate?

This can be broken into two major parts. What would be the effect on atmospheric carbon levels? And then what would be the effect on suface temperatures?

If human CO2 emissions stopped dead tomorrow, then atmospheric carbon levels would begin to fall, as carbon circulates through the carbon cycle. Because there are a number of different sinks, the atmospheric carbon levels decay with multiple characteristic time scales. This is because there are multiple sinks in the carbon cycle. For more details look for "Bern carbon model".

We expect that CO2 levels would fall fairly rapidly at first, and then much more slowly. Currently about half of what we add to the atmosphere ends up rapidly circulated into the rest of the carbon cycle, and half goes to increasing atmospheric levels. We are now adding about 8Gt per year carbon to the atmosphere, and levels are rising at about 1.9 ppm per year, which corresponds to 1.1*2.13 = ~4 Gt.

If this stopped tomorrow, atmospheric levels would immediately start to fall at about the rate they are now rising, corresponding to that same removal of 4Gt per year but without the 8Gt of emissions. That would tail off very rapidly as other carbon sinks become loaded with respect the atmosphere, and then the decay would continue with a longer characteristic time, corresponding to the next sink, and so on.

The IPCC 4AR estimates that about 50% of the post-industrial increase would be removed within about 30 years, and another 30% within a couple of centuries, with the last 20% remaining in the atmosphere for thousands of years. More recent work shows that this is optimistic; but I'll go with it for now.

We are currently at about 387ppm, with pre-industrial levels at around 280. So by this estimate, levels would fall to around 333 ppm by 2040, and to around 302ppm by 2200. This is unrealistic off course; even with drastic controls we are going to be emitting a lot of carbon yet. But hey; this is what you asked.

As for temperature, one point that is often lost is that the ocean is currently absorbing energy as it slowly warms up. Even if we stop emitting carbon tomorrow, this warming process will continue, and as it equilibrates with surface temperatures, this flux of energy will become additional energy at the surface, contributing to further increase in temperatures. At the same time, the falling carbon levels will contribute a negative forcing, to help reduce temperatures. The upshot is that temperatures will continue to increase for a little while, and then level off, and then start to fall again.

There's already a discussion of this at [post=2344541]msg #89[/post] of thread "Estimating the impact of CO2 on global mean temperature", which summarizes information from https://regtransfers-sth-se.diino.com/download/f.thompson/migrated_data/EandH/nature08019.pdf , by M. R. Allen et. al. in Nature 458 (30 April 2009), pp 1163-1166. Check out the diagram included in the post, and for emissions stopping dead in 2000, the vertical line at about 0.4 Gt carbon, at the left of the diagram.

This is the peak temperature reached, measured against pre-industrial temperatures. Note we are currently about 0.7 degrees above pre-industrial, and hence with a dead stop to emissions tomorrow, we could expect temperatures to rise around about another 0.3 degrees, average.

Of course, a total stop gives almost meaningless numbers, as we are not going to stop dead tomorrow. Currently emissions are at about 8 Gt/year, and increasing. Even with drastic changes this will take a while to come down, so the cumulative total by the end of the century, is likely to be around the "trillionth tonne" discussed in the paper, assuming that humanity does work at moving away from fossil fuels and leaves most of the available carbon fuels in the ground. In this case the total warming is expected to be something between 1.3 and 3.9 degrees, with 2.0 as the most likely. This peak is reached sometime approaching the end of the century with a long slow tail off after that.

Another proviso is that this considers CO2 only. CO2 is the most significant, but the anthropogenic impact includes many other greenhouse gases as well.

flatcp said:
2) Hypothetically, if no change in CO2 output from unnatural (meaning human?) sources occurs and in 100 years the AGT has increased 5c, what are the chances of the resulting environment on Earth being more hospitable to human life?

The issue, I think, is not how "hospitable" the Earth will be. It is rather how rapidly it will change. Our society is, naturally, adapted to prevailing conditions. Where we plant crops, where we build cities, where we live, have all come about because of the existing climate. As that changes, there will be a mismatch between where we would be best to live and farm, and where we actually live and farm.

In my view, the Earth will probably not be all that much less hospitable, in general. It is just that we will be living and farming in all the wrong places and with all the wrong crops. The biosphere generally will suffer, for the same reason. Things will adapt, in time, I would suspect; although there will be a lot of expense and disruption in the meantime. Many living things will not adapt quickly enough to new conditions, and there will be extinctions. Other living things will adapt or move in and take their place. And everything else will have to adapt to that as well. The expense and disruption is linked to the pace of change, and that is likely to be very significant.

However, my own focus has been on the physical aspects, not the societal aspects, so this is much more of a guess than my answer to your first question.

Cheers -- sylas
 
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  • #58
dmtr said:
This paper have nothing to do with the climate science. I'm asking for examples of significant corrections (alters the result) and retractions of mainstream climate science papers (papers that did not stand as a challenge to conventional ideas of climate).

The presence of these corrections and retractions would have been a good indicator that healthy professional criticism is present and errors are being caught.

Maybe also counts is the failure to retract a paper that should have been retracted by all standards, obviously http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1999/1999GL900070.shtml better known as http://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-2001/synthesis-spm/synthesis-spm-en.pdf . After the rejection of the http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2004GL021750.shtml. (M&M)

The allegations of M&M have been evaluated by two commissions/panels, a ad hoc commision Wegman and the NAS panel of North. Both confirmed the crtique of M&M , despite all attempts to cover that. As shown before,this can be seen from the senate hearings:

CHAIRMAN BARTON. I understand that. It looks like my time
is expired, so I want to ask one more question. Dr. North, do you
dispute the conclusions or the methodology of Dr. Wegman's report?
DR. NORTH. No, we don't. We don't disagree with their
criticism. In fact, pretty much the same thing is said in our
report.
But again, just because the claims are made, doesn't
mean they are false.
CHAIRMAN BARTON. I understand that you can have the right
conclusion and that it not be--
DR. NORTH. It happens all the time in science.
CHAIRMAN BARTON. Yes, and not be substantiated by what you
purport to be the facts but have we established--we know that
Dr. Wegman has said that Dr. Mann's methodology is incorrect. Do
you agree with that? I mean, it doesn't mean Dr. Mann's
conclusions are wrong, but we can stipulate now that we have--and if
you want to ask your statistician expert from North Carolina that
Dr. Mann's methodology cannot be documented and cannot be verified
by independent review.
DR. NORTH. Do you mind if he speaks?
CHAIRMAN BARTON. Yes, if he would like to come to the
microphone.
MR. BLOOMFIELD. Thank you. Yes, Peter Bloomfield. Our
committee reviewed the methodology used by Dr. Mann and his coworkers
and we felt that some of the choices they made were inappropriate.
We had much the same misgivings about his work that was documented
at much greater length by Dr. Wegman.

Maybe also an indication of the science is the vigorous attempts to resurrect the hockeystick afterwards and the attemps to discredit the Wegman report. See this thread.
 
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  • #59
flatcp said:
Hypothetically, if no change in CO2 output from unnatural (meaning human?) sources occurs and in 100 years the AGT has increased 5c, what are the chances of the resulting environment on Earth being more hospitable to human life?

Thanks.

First off, 5 degree C is a lot of warming! If that were to occur, the world would very likely be less habitable due to wide spread decreased crop yields.

However, with moderate warming (1-3 degree C), some parts of the Earth will become more habitable; Canada and Russia in particular will benefit. Unfortunately, seasonaly dry region regions at lower lattitudes will suffer decreased crop yields and diminished fresh water supplies with only minor warming. Extreme precipitation events are also expected which would make flood prone regions less habitable in addition to destroying cropland.

5C of warming would probably lead to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and large parts of Antarctica. Sea level rise would likely be over 1cm/year. In a hundred years that amounts to 1 meter of sea levels rise; we could deal with that. However, when will it stop?

My guess is it would keep on going for about 30 meters.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-ts.pdf
 
  • #60
There certainly was a lot of talk in the 70s about cooling. Were you alive back then?[/QUOTE]

I was alive then and I know Geologists were talking about Global Warming as early as '72.
It was well known that the increase in CO2 dated to the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.
Conversely, friends who were Automotive Engineers claimed to have evidence that plants put more pollutants into the atmosphere than all the cars combined! But, only at night!

LBJ
 

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