Fukushima Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

[rowmag]

From this morning's paper:

Tests show that sunflowers turn out to be quite ineffective at decontaminating soil. Reasons:
1) the cesium is mostly in the top couple of cm of soil, and the sunflower roots are below that; and
2) cesium in the soil quickly binds to clays, and cannot then be sucked out by plants.
The only thing that really works is scraping off the top few cm of soil.
http://www.asahi.com/special/10005/TKY201109140656.html

Up to 1/7th of Fukushima prefecture needs to be decontaminated.
http://www.asahi.com/special/10005/TKY201109140739.html

 

[zapperzero]

More political/economic fallout. Edano says Fukushima Dai-ni to be decomissioned.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-16/tepco-s-fuksuhima-dai-ni-will-be-decommissioned-mainichi-says.html

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

Yes, I had noticed this in another location which was also downwind of Fukushima Daiichi and raining heavily that day. Two questions, for anyone who knows:

1) Why did the levels drop again after the rain stopped? If it was Cesium being brought down, should it not have remained on the ground and raised the background level permanently afterwards (as happened in the March bursts in several places)? But it doesn't, it drops back to the previous level after the rain stops. Why the difference this time from the spikes in March?

2) What does this imply about the ongoing level of atmospheric emissions from the plant?

According to a post made today at the ex-skf blog, we were not the only people to notice that spike - the blog has translated an article from Playboy which postulates a fresh release of radioactive isotopes around the time:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/japanese-researcher-recriticality-in.html

A couple of personal observations. Firstly, I have been watching these graphs since March 15th, and that radioactive rainstorm is unique as far as I am concerned - I do not think the 'radon daughter theory' explains it adequately. Wouldn't we be able to see this pattern repeated if the radiation was attributable to natural causes? Also, the peak occurred over a a large geographic area.

Secondly, should we take an article in 'Playboy' seriously? The story cites Yoyo Hinuma, currently at University of California San Diego, so it is not just a 'baseless rumour'. I think the theory should at least be considered on its scientific merits. I'm not a scientist, however I do know a bit about the structure of the media establishment in Japan.

Self-censorship in the Japanese media is a well understood phenomenon amongst Japanese media scholars, and almost all big stories are broken through the 'weekly' tabloids. The Neptunium contamination story is a good example - based on solid University of Tokyo research but only reported by 'SPA!'.

So, all that said, why DID the radiation stop after the rain storm on August 19th? And why was there no iodine or cesium detected in the daily municipal fallout figures, yet iodine suddenly reappears in the sewage sludge in Tokyo, Iwate, Niigata, Nagano and the Sub-drain at Fukushima Unit 1? If we consider Dr Hinuma's theory about re-criticality, could other short-lived fission products explain the radioactive rain we experienced on the 19th of August?

http://i55.tinypic.com/2lavqee.jpg

 

[tsutsuji]

(NHK) & http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110918/1130_chizu.html The Osaka University research centre for nuclear physics will release on 19 September on its internet homepage a map displaying radiation estimates in 5 years' time in the Fukushima area. The source data are those measured by the ministry of education and science. [At present only a bar graph radiation display with some undated data (the last available ones ?) is available on the following google Earth application: http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_dose.php ]

 

[tsutsuji]

According to a post made today at the ex-skf blog, we were not the only people to notice that spike - the blog has translated an article from Playboy which postulates a fresh release of radioactive isotopes around the time:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/japanese-researcher-recriticality-in.html

Here are the graphs for Kawasaki-shi Kawasaki-ku Chidori district (Kanagawa prefecture)

22 May ~ 20 August:

29-30 July:

19 August:

source: http://www.bousai.ne.jp/vis/tgraph.php?area_id=114&post_id=1140000001

I think the peaks on 29-30 July and 19 August are created by the rain, because their maximum is reached shortly after the rain starts pouring. However what is strange is that some peaks in July and August are higher than those in May and June.

 

[tsutsuji]

For example, here is the smaller peak on 22 May (Kanagawa prefecture, Kawasaki-shi Kawasaki-ku Chidori district):

source: http://www.bousai.ne.jp/vis/tgraph.php?area_id=114&post_id=1140000001

However, one should keep in mind that with less than 80 nGy/h, the July and August peaks are smaller than the levels reached in March (222 nGy/h on 15 March at Chidori, Kawasaki):

Here is the 12 March - 11 June trend:

source: http://www.bousai.ne.jp/vis/tgraph.php?area_id=114&post_id=1140000001

 

[tsutsuji]

(NHK) & http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110918/1130_chizu.html The Osaka University research centre for nuclear physics will release on 19 September on its internet homepage a map displaying radiation estimates in 5 years' time in the Fukushima area. The source data are those measured by the ministry of education and science. [At present only a bar graph radiation display with some undated data (the last available ones ?) is available on the following google Earth application: http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_dose.php ]

Here is the link to the map with the 5 year span radiation estimates : http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_time.php

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110920/0440_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet. Meeting with director general Amano, US and French representatives, Goshi Hosono obtained their cooperation such as the sending of experts to Japan. Whether decontamination work and waste treatment can be accelerated seems to be a challenge.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110920/0440_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet. Meeting with director general Amano, US and French representatives, Goshi Hosono obtained their cooperation such as the sending of experts to Japan. Whether decontamination work and waste treatment can be accelerated seems to be a challenge.

Let's send a letter of thanks to Capitain Obvious here.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1316578041P.pdf
According to JAIF which quotes NHK which quotes TEPCO and/or the J-gov

the amount of radioactive substances released from the plant was about
200-million becquerels per hour in the first half of September. They say that's
about one-four millionths of the level of the initial stages of the accident in
March.

So now we have another number to plug into those SPEEDI simulations. The number is 8*10E+14 Bq/h, unless I misplaced some zeroes along the way.

 

[zapperzero]

http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/
discusses plumes in a rather exhaustive manner.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110922/1440_youso.html The ministry of education and science releases a map of Iodine pollution. Iodine 131 has an 8 day long half life. Of the 2200 measurement points, only 400 provided relevant data. The shape of the polluted area is the same as that of Cesium 137. The Iodine 131/Cesium 137 ratio is higher in the North-West area than in the South area.

http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/
discusses plumes in a rather exhaustive manner.

Isn't his theory written on 31 March that "the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, seems consistent with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far)" a bit strange? Should not the radiation decrease rather than increase after they poured water? It is a bit disappointing that this blog was discontinued instead of being updated. I wish we could know if the author still believes in his theory.

 

[zapperzero]

Isn't his theory written on 31 March that "the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, seems consistent with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far)" a bit strange? Should not the radiation decrease rather than increase after they poured water?

Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

Here's an interesting one from up north:

Early results are in from the ongoing monitoring of citizens in Minami Soma on the edge of the exclusion zone. It appears citizens' internal exposure increased much more rapidly during the period April 3-June 4 than it did March 20-May 19:

http://www.asahi.com/national/jiji/JJT201109200045.html (Japanese)

...

"The JAEA concluded that Cesium that has fallen and subsequently been disturbed from the ground's surface causes 10 times more internal exposure than direct inhalation"
...

"The result showed that the direct inhalation of Cesium 134 and 137 caused 0.0076-0.0099 milliSv internal exposure, while inhalation of re-floated particles lead to internal exposure of 0.077-0.09 milliSv, approximately ten times higher."

One immediate question is how did they control for ingestion through contaminated food?

I suspect they simply accepted the government's spurious assurances that there is no contaminated food entering the supply chain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

 

[tsutsuji]

Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.

Has this theory been discussed in scientific literature before March 2011? Is the mentioned phenomenon the same as what is otherwise called a "steam explosion" ?

 

[joewein]

Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.

If the SFP of unit 4 was the source for the radioactivity in Ibaraki one would expect significant fuel rod damage in the pool.

However that is at odds with the https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3373625&postcount=10224" of the pool water in unit 4, which is about 100 times lower than in unit 1, 700 times lower than in unit 2 and 1000 times lower than in unit 3.

 

[Astronuc]

I've haven't fully explored this, but

Fukushima radiation map published
http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?storyCode=2060679
19 September 2011

The Japanese government (MEXT) has issued a contour map of cumulative radioactive dose in air in the 50 km or so of northeastern Japan around the Fukushima Daiichi site, to 11 September.

. . . .

 

[joewein]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110920/0440_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet.

Let's send a letter of thanks to Capitain Obvious here.

While it may be obvious to you and me, it is not obvious to the general public here in Japan, or at least not the way things were presented here by the media.

The public here was basically sold on the idea that the evacuation was temporary and would last until "cold shutdown" has been achieved, which was promised by the turn of the year. That is because originally evacuation was justified as a precaution after the cooling problems, not as response to acute contamination of the environment, which was never supposed to happen since the containments would prevent Chernobyl-style contamination.

Since then the truth about soil contamination, both inside the 20 km exclusion zone and in the strip of land to the NW of the plant (Iitate-mura, etc) and even further away has gradually trickled out, but it didn't drastically change the official storyline. Nobody was saying, "No, you won't be able to return in January, even if the reactors are below 100 deg C."

The whole idea of cold shutdown becomes questionable without circulation cooling. Once the RPV and its pipes, seals and valves are penetrated by melted fuel or lose air tightness, as they have, it is no longer possible to circulate water through the RPV and a heat exchanger (like the Residual heat Removal system) as in a normal cold shutdown.

The water will leak out somewhere. If the fuel can't be submerged, steam can form locally. If the seals are no longer tight the steam can leak out. In a way, the covers around the buildings and any filtration applied to them are more significant now than the stretched definition of "cold shutdown" applied to the reactor core.

There has been little discussion about what kind of decontamination is possible or feasible in the evacuated areas, except that TEPCO has said that it would decontaminate them so residents can return, and for months locals have been shown in interviews on TV saying they want to return "as soon as possible" (literally, "if I can return one day sooner, I want to").

 

[zapperzero]

While it may be obvious to you and me, it is not obvious to the general public here in Japan, or at least not the way things were presented here by the media.

The public here was basically sold on the idea that the evacuation was temporary and would last until "cold shutdown" has been achieved, which was promised by the turn of the year. That is because originally evacuation was justified as a precaution after the cooling problems, not as response to acute contamination of the environment, which was never supposed to happen since the containments would prevent Chernobyl-style contamination.

Man oh man. What a pickle. Do you suppose the current gov't will be short-lived as well?

 

[alpi]

Nobody was saying, "No, you won't be able to return in January, even if the reactors are below 100 deg C." ...

Why would any responsible politician say such a thing? I think people should be allowed to return to their homes immediately. The radiation doses indoors where modern people spend most of their lives are less than the reported fairly harmless doses outdoors in the affected areas.

 

[rowmag]

According to a post made today at the ex-skf blog, we were not the only people to notice that spike - the blog has translated an article from Playboy which postulates a fresh release of radioactive isotopes around the time:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/japanese-researcher-recriticality-in.html

A couple of personal observations. Firstly, I have been watching these graphs since March 15th, and that radioactive rainstorm is unique as far as I am concerned - I do not think the 'radon daughter theory' explains it adequately. Wouldn't we be able to see this pattern repeated if the radiation was attributable to natural causes? Also, the peak occurred over a a large geographic area.

Secondly, should we take an article in 'Playboy' seriously? The story cites Yoyo Hinuma, currently at University of California San Diego, so it is not just a 'baseless rumour'. I think the theory should at least be considered on its scientific merits. I'm not a scientist, however I do know a bit about the structure of the media establishment in Japan.

Self-censorship in the Japanese media is a well understood phenomenon amongst Japanese media scholars, and almost all big stories are broken through the 'weekly' tabloids. The Neptunium contamination story is a good example - based on solid University of Tokyo research but only reported by 'SPA!'.

So, all that said, why DID the radiation stop after the rain storm on August 19th? And why was there no iodine or cesium detected in the daily municipal fallout figures, yet iodine suddenly reappears in the sewage sludge in Tokyo, Iwate, Niigata, Nagano and the Sub-drain at Fukushima Unit 1? If we consider Dr Hinuma's theory about re-criticality, could other short-lived fission products explain the radioactive rain we experienced on the 19th of August?

http://i55.tinypic.com/2lavqee.jpg

Another blip seen in Ibaraki on Sep. 21st, when the center of Typhoon #15 was passing to the west through Tochigi: strong rain, combined with wind blowing from Fukushima Daiichi (clockwise around the center of the storm). And once again the level dropped again after the storm had passed.

Of course, the typhoon brought very intense rains, so the wind direction could be a coincidence if the theory of radon daughters being kicked up from the soil by rain is correct. But, I think if the radon daughter theory is to be demonstrated, we need to see such a blip when the wind is NOT coming from the direction of Fukushima Daiichi.

Otherwise, what could be getting swept downwind from Fukushima Daichi, and then swept down with the rain, that is either short-lived or doesn't stick around? Noble gases?

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20110924/t10015820321000.html 500 Bq/kg of cesium found in rice tested before harvest in Nihonmatsu, Fukushima prefecture.

 

[Luca Bevil]

Why would any responsible politician say such a thing? I think people should be allowed to return to their homes immediately. The radiation doses indoors where modern people spend most of their lives are less than the reported fairly harmless doses outdoors in the affected areas.

Should not be this forum about scientific facts ?

Do you propose to keep children confined in radiation shielded buildings ?

I habe sove difficulty in wording my strong disagreement in a civil manner, so I'll leave it at this point and let others comment

 

[Azby]

Why would any responsible politician say such a thing? I think people should be allowed to return to their homes immediately. The radiation doses indoors where modern people spend most of their lives are less than the reported fairly harmless doses outdoors in the affected areas.

I wonder if we're talking about the same geographic locations. Unless my translation is hazy (and they often are) the statement refers to the most highly contaminated areas within the 20km exclusion zone as well as less contaminated ones. Maybe you were thinking it was only the latter? Like the rest if us I'm wondering who was thinking they'd be able to go back and live in an area where the ground contamination is over 3,000,000 Bq/m2, but apparently the gov't has really avoided coming out and saying this until now, and many people were holding out hope.

 

[Caniche]

I wonder if we're talking about the same geographic locations. Unless my translation is hazy (and they often are) the statement refers to the most highly contaminated areas within the 20km exclusion zone as well as less contaminated ones. Maybe you were thinking it was only the latter? Like the rest if us I'm wondering who was thinking they'd be able to go back and live in an area where the ground contamination is over 3,000,000 Bq/m2, but apparently the gov't has really avoided coming out and saying this until now, and many people were holding out hope.

Well they say it springs eternal, but you might ask if 56,000 years is pushing it a bit

 

[tsutsuji]

The evacuation-prepared zone will be lifted Friday:

The five municipalities have already submitted to the government their recovery plans, a precondition for lifting the advisory which covers all of Hirono and parts of Naraha, Kawauchi, Tamura and Minamisoma, all in Fukushima Prefecture.
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2011/09/27/5807576.htm

Japan Focus is publishing "Fukushima Children at Risk of Heart Disease" by Chris Busby with an introduction by Mark Selden : http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3609 . I tried to find basic knowledge on the "Chernobyl heart" disease, and found http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_Heart . It is mostly an article about a film, but it links to a medical publication : "Radiation induced cardiac valve disease in a man from Chernobyl" : http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=search&db=pubmed&term=19647162

 

[Shinjukusam]

The evacuation-prepared zone will be lifted Friday:


Japan Focus is publishing "Fukushima Children at Risk of Heart Disease" by Chris Busby with an introduction by Mark Selden : http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3609 . I tried to find basic knowledge on the "Chernobyl heart" disease, and found http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_Heart . It is mostly an article about a film, but it links to a medical publication : "Radiation induced cardiac valve disease in a man from Chernobyl" : http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=search&db=pubmed&term=19647162

Just wanted to point out that pretty much anything having to do with Busby should be taken with a pretty large grain of salt

Feel I need to be pointing out the other side of the "it's not science, it's propaganda" discussion.

 

[tsutsuji]

I want to correct one of my previous messages as below with the underlined text:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110922/1440_youso.html The ministry of education and science releases a map of Iodine pollution. Iodine 131 has an 8 day long half life. Of the 2200 measurement points, only 400 provided relevant data. There is a polluted area with the same shape as the Cs-137 pollution area, but there is also an area with relatively high iodine levels in the south of the plant. The Iodine 131/Cesium 137 ratio is higher in the North-West area than in the South area.

http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/distribution_map_around_FukushimaNPP/0002/5600_0921.pdf 　The Iodine map is on page 6 with concentrations as of 14 June. It shows yellow dots in the 20-30 km stay-indoors zone south of the plant (mostly Hirono).

Rice contamination:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20110924/t10015820321000.html 500 Bq/kg of cesium found in rice tested before harvest in Nihonmatsu, Fukushima prefecture.

Consequences:

Rice with 500 becquerels of cesium per kilogram still can be shipped. Fukushima Prefecture will conduct the official tests of rice for radiation in Nihonmatsu as soon as possible at 300 spots—many more than the initially planned 38 spots
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903791504576590724000963708.html

Scientific problem:

The level of radioactive materials in soil at the paddy field where the rice was harvested was 3,000 becquerels per kilogram.

"The cesium level [at 500 becquerels per kilogram] of the rice was higher than it was supposed to be, given the radionuclide transfer coefficient. I wonder why such a high level of cesium was detected from this place alone," an official of the prefectural government said.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110924003191.htm

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20110929/k10015937093000.html Personnel in 3 fishing cooperatives in Soma and Iwaki, Fukushima prefecture, are being trained to use 5 new radiation monitoring instruments able to provide data as soon as the fish is landed. Being able to provide data quickly is important as fish is consumed shortly after being caught. The new tools will be used with trial catches in November at the earliest.

http://new-fukushima.jp/result.php?search_area=いわき市 Three fish species were above the limits in Iwaki : fat greenling (930 Bq/kg of Cs 137), commons skete (520 Bq/kg of Cs 137), slime flounder (620 Bq/kg of Cs 137), all three were caught on 26 September. Another common skete sample had only 160 Bq/kg of Cs 137.

http://new-fukushima.jp/result.php?search_area=相馬市 Samples of some of those species caught on the same day in Soma were below the limit (fat greenling: 90Bq/kg, common skete: 40 Bq/kg for one sample and 100 Bq/kg for another)

http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/ibaraki/20110916/CK2011091602000060.html The fishing of odontobutis obscura (donko) is allowed again in Ibaraki prefecture from 15 September. It had been found above allowed radiation levels and fishing had been stopped in July and August, but recently taken samples are below the limits. Bottom trawling is still avoided north of Kawajiri (Hitachi city), and this is a huge loss as it is a major shrimp fishing area.

Other foods, such as marine produce, won't be as easy to handle, experts say. After the Chernobyl accident, for example, the radioactive contamination of fish peaked between 6 to 12 months after the disaster.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110911a3.html

http://new-fukushima.jp/result.php?search_area=南相馬市&kind_detail=&page=2 　Lactarius (hatsutake) mushrooms found with 11,000 Bq/kg on samples taken on 15 September in Minamisoma.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110930/2040_kensyutsu.html Plutonium has been found in Iitate Mura, 45 km away from the plant, with 0.82 Bq/m² of Pu-238. Adding Pu-239 and Pu-240, the total is 2.5 Bq/m². This is one of the results of a survey performed by the ministry of education and science at 100 locations inside the 80 km range in June and July. It is the first time a government survey finds plutonium outside the plant.

http://www.nikkei.com/news/headline...19695E1E2E2E6868DE1E2E2EBE0E2E3E3E2E2E2E2E2E2 Plutonium was found at 6 locations. The highest figure is 4 Bq/m² at Namie.

http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/distribution_map_around_FukushimaNPP/0002/5600_0930.pdf "Ministry of education and science plutonium and strontium substance analysis results" 30 September 2011

 

[joewein]

http://www.nikkei.com/news/headline...19695E1E2E2E6868DE1E2E2EBE0E2E3E3E2E2E2E2E2E2 Plutonium was found at 6 locations. The highest figure is 4 Bq/m² at Namie.

I wonder what the general background level from Pu from the 1950s/1960s above ground tests is?

From 1955-1966 plutonium deposition (Pu239+Pu240) in Japan from weapon testing by the nuclear powers was above 1 Bq/m2 annually, with a cumulative total of about 40 Bq/m2 during those years alone. Given the long half lives (24110 for Pu239 and 6537 for Pu240), most of that should still be around.