Fukushima Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

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The French IRSN has released a report detailing contamination levels around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, highlighting cesium contamination based on SPEEDI/MEXT estimations. Concerns have been raised about the transparency and accuracy of radiation projections, with some questioning the reliability of data from the IAEA and Japanese agencies. The discussion emphasizes the emotional impact on the Japanese population, particularly regarding safety standards for children exposed to radiation. There are ongoing debates about the adequacy of current radiation limits and the effectiveness of monitoring efforts. Overall, the conversation reflects significant distrust in the reporting and management of nuclear contamination issues.
  • #481
The second part of this animation shows, what would have happened in case of an accident on the other side of Japan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEFt9p7-Dxo
 
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  • #482
Yamanote said:
The second part of this animation shows, what would have happened in case of an accident on the other side of Japan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEFt9p7-Dxo

A bit disingenuous... are there such tsunamis on the other coast? I thought not.
But then, it's not the only possible accident cause.
 
  • #483
zapperzero said:
A bit disingenuous... are there such tsunamis on the other coast? I thought not.
But then, it's not the only possible accident cause.

The 1983 Sea of Japan tsunami swept along a wide part of the Sea of Japan coast, from the Noto peninusla north, reached ten metres in height and and killed about one hundred people including some on the Korean peninsula. Kashiwazaki has tsunami protection for a reason!

The animation shows a plant in Fukui spewing radiation on Nagoya; if you shift the scenario north Noto peninusla to Kashiwazaki then the same plume would be right over Tokyo. It is a pretty crudely drawn scenario, but the risk is there.

Cheers,
James
 
  • #484
Another example: The 1993 Hokkaido earthquake.

The tsunami inundated large parts of Okushiri, despite its tsunami defenses. A maximum run-up of 32 m was recorded on the western part of the island near Monai. A tsunami was widely observed in the Sea of Japan with a run-up of 3.5 m at Akita in northern Honshu, up to 4.0 m in southeastern Russia and up to 2.6 m on the coast of South Korea.[4]

Location of Okushiri: Northern part of the Sea of Japan.

Hokkaido_Okushiri-town.png


Furthermore, the height of Tsunamis is not only determinated by the force of the earthquake, but also by the shape of the coast. It's possible that Kashiwazaki-Kariwa stands at a location which is insensitive to Tsunamis.

Example Kamaishi:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/11/02/world/asia/A-Tsunami-Defense-Under-Scrutiny.html

There are two bays, directly besides each other. But the Tsunami height flcutuates between 30 and 100 feet.
Notice the difference between the points "E" and "F".
 
  • #485
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/region/news/120127/fks12012722390005-n1.htm 39 bags (57.5 kg) of rice from the 1100 Bq/kg farm have been sold. The prefecture ordered the recall of the bags. This is the second occurrence of contaminated rice being sold. Until now 38 rice farms in 3 cities and one town have been found above safety level.

http://www.sankeibiz.jp/compliance/news/120126/cpd1201261430014-n1.htm In 2012, rice planting in the areas that harvested rice contaminated between 100 and 500 Bq/kg in 2011 will be subject to conditions such as low risk (when the number of samples found above 100 Bq/kg was small) and decontamination measures, the Fukushima Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives announced. Concerning the areas where rice was not grown in 2011, the conditions will be set after the full test results of the 2011 harvests are known. The Fukushima Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives also said that in 2012, 100% of the bags will be tested, and whenever a radiation, even a small one, is detected, they will not be shipped. The ministry of agriculture indicated at the end of last year its intention to restrict rice planting in the areas where crops higher than 500 Bq/kg were harvested. Concerning the areas where crops were found between 100 and 500 Bq/kg, the policy will be decided after consulting with the prefecture and growers.

http://www.47news.jp/CN/201201/CN2012012701002644.html The ministry of health announced that the detection threshold for general food testing that is to be applied from 1 April, is set at 25 Bq/kg instead of the present 50 Bq/kg. Public comments on this measure are open till 13 February.

http://www.chunichi.co.jp/article/nagano/20120117/CK2012011702000125.html Nagano prefecture has started testing each mushroom growing farm. The 600 farms will be tested until March.

http://www.hiroshimapeacemedia.jp/mediacenter/article.php?story=20120126102721779_ja (Chugoku Shimbun, 26 January morning edition) Professor Toshihiro Takatsuji of Nagasaki university announced at an international symposium at Hiroshima university on 25 January that high radiation levels were found in Nagasaki one month after the accident. The Cs 134 concentration on paper filters was 11,300 Bq/kg during the week from 6 April 2011. Using US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, he found that on 6 April, the southern half of Japan was blown by winds from Tohoku. He said that even if the atmopheric radiation value is low, it is possible that it increases in locations where radioactive substances accumulate, such as on air conditioner filters.

http://www.minpo.jp/view.php?pageId=4107&blockId=9927368&newsMode=article (Fukushima Minpo, 26 January) the Study committee announced the results of the thyroid examination of the children 18 years old or below from Namie, Iitate and Kawamata. Among 3765 people tested, zero were found necessitating immediate second examination, 26 were found necessitating a second examination, and 1117 with stiffnesses of 5 mm or below, which are considered benign. According to the vice-president of Fukushima medical university, there is no malignity variation due to the nuclear accident.
 
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  • #486
Fukushima:
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201201270048 The government's decontamination roadmap is setting up a 1 microsievert/hour goal in schools, and a 10 mSv/year goal elsewhere in the 10-20 mSv/year zone.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/e-japan/fukushima/news/20120203-OYT8T00012.htm 140 samples have been above 500 Bq/kg among 2125 Fukushima Prefecture shallow (less than 50 m deep) water sea fish samples tested since April.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20120206p2a00m0na008000c.html worms around the plant ingest large quantities of cesium. It is feared that other animals that eat worms might in turn be contaminated.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120207/index.html Tepco will compensate cars, busses, and trucks broken because they were left without maintenance, or because they were not allowed to leave the restricted area because their radiation doses were too high.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/news/20120209p2a00m0na013000c.html [temporary] "Radioactive waste disposal site unveiled to reporters" [in Hirono, Fukushima prefecture].

Elsewhere in Japan:
http://www.okinawatimes.co.jp/article/2012-01-31_29251/ 1.12 Bq/kg of cesium was found in eringi mushrooms grown in Nagano and eaten by schoolchildren in a south Okinawa Island school in November.

http://mytown.asahi.com/yamagata/news.php?k_id=06000001201310003 Two roadside ditches above 8000 Bq/kg have been found in a survey of 26 locations in 12 cities and towns in Yamagata prefecture. 19400 Bq/kg was found in Tendo, and 17400 Bq/kg in Sagae. The radiation at 1 m above ground was 0.13 microsievert/hour in both cases.

http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/gunma/20120131/CK2012013102000059.html 473 and 480 Bq/kg in wakasagi fish, and 768 Bq/kg in iwana trouts in Akagi Oonuma lake, Gunma prefecture. Fishing remains restricted.

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/region/news/120209/kng12020921550005-n1.htm 2077 Bq/kg dried shiitake mushrooms grown in Shizuoka were found in a shop in Yokohama. 7 bags (of 80 g each) have already been sold.
 
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  • #487
tsutsuji said:
Elsewhere in Japan:
http://www.okinawatimes.co.jp/article/2012-01-31_29251/ 1.12 Bq/kg of cesium was found in eringi mushrooms grown in Nagano and eaten by schoolchildren in a south Okinawa Island school in November.

Is this right? Natural radiation (mostly from K-40) in human body is around 50 Bq/kg. Additional 1.12 Bq/kg in food is practically negligible - especially considering that it's Cs, which does not bioaccumulate in humans.
 
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  • #488
It is right, I think. The article says it is 0.46 Bq/kg of Cs-134 and 0.66 Bq/kg of Cs-137. I think that it is a problem that this article (like most articles about food) does not mention the presence of K-40 in bananas or other foods. People reading the article may unnecessarily worry too much.
 
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  • #489
tsutsuji said:
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/region/news/120209/kng12020921550005-n1.htm 2077 Bq/kg dried shiitake mushrooms [STRIKE]grown in Shizuoka[/STRIKE] were found in a shop in Yokohama. 7 bags (of 80 g each) have already been sold.

Grown mainly in Iwate and packaged in Shizuoka. Sorry.

http://www.nikkei.com/news/category...E2E2E1828DE3E2E2E0E0E2E3E09180EAE2E2E2;av=ALL As a follow-up of the discovery in January of 43,780 Bq/kg high radiation ashes in a wood stove in Nihonmatsu, Fukushima prefecture, the ministry of environment checked wood stoves in 9 homes in 9 cities and towns in Southern Ibaraki prefecture . The lowest value was 1180 Bq/kg and the highest one 59,000 Bq/kg (resulting of the burning of 480 Bq/kg wood).

http://mainichi.jp/life/food/news/20120211ddm012040016000c.html 258 Bq/kg in soba noodles in a restaurant in Okinawa. The noodles were manufactured using water percolating ashes from Fukushima wood. On 10 February, the Forestry Agency issued instructions so that wood from 17 prefectures produced after the 11 March earthquake are not used in food, even if they are below the radiation limits (40 Bq/kg for wood, 280 Bq/kg for charcoal).

http://mainichi.jp/select/weathernews/news/20120210ddm001040046000c.html List of cities and towns in Fukushima prefecture where the 2011 rice harvest was found higher than 100 Bq/kg, with the numbers of such farms (170 farms in Fukushima city, 199 in Date, 111 in Nihonmatsu, 39 in Kunimi, 29 in Koori, 20 in Motomiya, 6 in Kawamata, 2 in Ootama and Soma, 1 in Tamura and Shirakawa) (Higher than 500 Bq/kg: 23 Farms in Fukushima city, 14 in Date, 1 in Nihonmatsu).
 
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  • #490
A year [actually 11 months, but it seems it will go on] on, only brief home visits for Japan nuclear evacuees
http://news.yahoo.com/only-brief-home-visits-japan-nuclear-evacuees-081517728.html
 
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  • #491
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120210006056.htm (English) Waste site open to journalists in Okuma

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20110316-866921/news/20120213-OYT1T00936.htm 58,000 Bq/kg from Earth from discarded vinyl greenhouses from Togane, Chiba, being recycled in a plastic factory in Chiba prefecture. The factory has recalled all the Earth (140 tons) produced after the nuclear accident.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20110316-866921/news/20120213-OYT1T00881.htm A study group of the ministry of education and science held a meeting on 13 February about sea radiation surveys. They decided to launch another survey of river mouths and seas in Tokyo Bay and on the Pacific coast, with Fukushima prefecture as the main focus, starting in April. The frequency of testing in coastal waters and in far waters will be reduced to once every 2 or 3 months instead of once a month.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20110316-866921/news/20120212-OYT1T00538.htm 3000 Bq/kg in dried daikon radish grown in Fukushima city. 102 bags (50 g each) have already been sold.

http://www.okinawatimes.co.jp/article/2012-02-08_29578/ 468 Bq/kg in Fukushima wood in an Okinawa restaurant. 3 Other restaurants have already used their Fukushima wood so it cannot be tested, but 39,960 Bq/kg was found in ashes. 15.7 tons of Fukushima wood were distributed in Okinawa by a Gifu prefecture based company. 8.4 tons were sold to restaurants, and 7.3 tons are remaining in a container near Naha port.

http://www.chibanippo.co.jp/c/news/national/69198 Chiba prefecture tested 46 locations in a park and found 3 locations above the 1 microsievert/hour standard. The highest is 3.42 microsievert/hour at 50 cm above ground near a parking lot storm-water inlet.

http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/national/news/CK2012020402000037.html 6.85 microsievert/hour at 1 cm above ground (above the 0.59 microsievert/hour at 1 cm above ground standard) near an unused drainage channel near a school in Yokohama. 62,900 Bq/kg in Earth samples taken in a close location.

http://www.minyu-net.com/news/news/0204/news6.html Second announcement of results of the whole body counter examinations of Minamisoma citizens. The first results were announced in October. Among 579 primary and middle school children, 218 were above the detection level for Cs-137 and 361 were below detection level. 4 had 20 Bq/kg or above. The highest one had between 30 and 35 Bq/kg. Among 4745 senior high school students, 1943 were above detection level. Among these, 1774 had 20 Bq/kg or below. 16 had 50 Bq/kg or above. The highest had 110.7 Bq/kg. According to the City, only one person had an accumulated dose higher than 1 milisievert over 50 years, with 1.069 milisievert/50 years.

http://mainichi.jp/select/weathernews/20110311/radioactive/news/20120219k0000e040102000c.html There is a problem with the new food safety levels. There are two sorts of radiation measurement tools. The Germanium semiconductor detector, and the sodium iodide scintillator detector. As a rule, one should have a detection level of about 10% of the safety standard. As the safety standard for general food is brought down to 100 Bq/kg, one should have a detection level of 10 Bq/kg. This is possible with a Germanium (Ge) detector, but sodium iodide (NaI) detectors can't do this. At present the national government and the prefectures own 116 Ge detectors and 227 NaI detectors. The person in charge at Ibaraki prefecture government says "we don't have the budget to buy new detectors. We have to do with the detectors we have". Ibaraki prefecture owns one Ge detector, which performs between 15 and 20 tap water tests per week, and 5 NaI detectors, that perform beef tests on 500 to 600 cows per week. When the 100% beef control was started in August, they had only one Ge detector, and for two months they had to perform tests on a 24 hour/day basis, and the employees could hardly sleep. They are afraid that the same situation is going to occur again as the new safety levels are implemented. The health ministry issued a proposal to set the NaI detector detection level at 25 Bq/kg, but according to the maker, Hitachi Aloka Medical, the test must last for 60 to 70 minutes instead of the present 10 to 15 minutes. To reduce that time, and increase the measurement tool's sensitivity, the sample holding container would need to be improved. Miyagi prefecture has decided to perform such improvements, but it will cost 13 million yens. "Can the national government help with the improvement cost?" the Miyagi prefecture person in charge is asking.
 
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  • #492
Astronuc said:
A year [actually 11 months, but it seems it will go on] on, only brief home visits for Japan nuclear evacuees
http://news.yahoo.com/only-brief-home-visits-japan-nuclear-evacuees-081517728.html

This article links a picture that shows a 11.3mSv/h reading.

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/world-events-slideshow/radiation-gauge-shows-reading-11-3-millisieverts-per-photo-081517930.html

That has to be a mistake and should be 11.3 uSv/h, or not?
 
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  • #493
Neredera said:
This article links a picture that shows a 11.3mSv/h reading.

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/world-events-slideshow/radiation-gauge-shows-reading-11-3-millisieverts-per-photo-081517930.html

That has to be a mistake and should be 11.3 uSv/h, or not?

Yes it should be 11.3 μSv, as you can see on the larger version of the photograph at http://www.novosti.rs/upload/images/2012//02/13/japan.jpg
 
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  • #494
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120220_26.html

partial results of an ongoing survey in Fukushima:

40% of residents from 3 affected municipalities got more than 1 mSv in the first four months after the accident.

Highest dose received was 23 mSv.
 
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  • #495
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120221/1915_sokutei.html The ministry of education and science is releasing a new online map with real time radiation measurements in 2700 places such as schools and parks in Fukushima prefecture. A trend graph is provided for each sensor.

http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/important_imformation/5100_2012022114.pdf presentation of the new real time map.

http://radiomap.mext.go.jp/ja/ The new real time map.

[It is a bit disappointing that they don't say the height of each sensor. All they say is "either 50 cm or 1 m". Another problem is the 3 microsievert/hour upper limit of the trend graph. With about 9 microsievert/hour, the trend graph of Namie's prefectural high school is not available as it is higher than 3 microsievert/hour]
 
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  • #496
The Health Physics Society (HPS) is concerned about radiation exposures associated with these reactor problems and desires to keep our members and the concerned public advised on current events associated with the Japanese nuclear plants.
http://hps.org/fukushima/

The Health Physics Society has a lot of relevant information on the health and environmental effects of radiation.
 
  • #497
zapperzero said:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120220_26.html

partial results of an ongoing survey in Fukushima:

40% of residents from 3 affected municipalities got more than 1 mSv in the first four months after the accident.

Highest dose received was 23 mSv.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120220/2100_hibakuryou.html Results of the external radiation estimates for 14,680 people of Iitate, Namie and Kawamata, for the 4 month period after the accident. Among the 9747 people who are not nuclear workers, 4111 are above 1 mSv, 71 are above 10 mSv. The highest is a woman with 23 mSv. She evacuated once, but came back and lived for 3 months in the planned evacuation zone.

tsutsuji said:
http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/important_imformation/5100_2012022114.pdf presentation of the new real time map.

http://radiomap.mext.go.jp/ja/ The new real time map.

[It is a bit disappointing that they don't say the height of each sensor. All they say is "either 50 cm or 1 m".

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201202220028 "It measures air radiation levels of gamma rays at a height of 50 centimeters above the ground in kindergartens, day care centers and elementary schools and at a height of 1 meter above the ground at junior high and senior high schools and at other public facilities."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17124909 "research cruise in June last year led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).The initial findings were presented to the biennial Ocean Sciences Meeting. "

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120225/1430_100m.html The ministry of environment is releasing an interim report with a 100 metre mesh radiation map. It was started in November and displays the measurements in 7963 locations. Some of the areas in the central part of Iitate village that were marked as above 20 mSv/year in the helicopter maps were found below 20 mSv/year. The highest location is in the Yamada district of Futaba with 89.9 microsievert/hour (472.5 milisievert/year). The final report will be released next month. It will be used by local governments to plan decontamination, and by the national government to revise the boundaries of the evacuation zones.

http://www.env.go.jp/press/press.php?serial=14870 Detailed monitoring pursuant of decontamination special law (interim report)
 
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  • #498
Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the
Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: determination of the
source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/2313/2012/acp-12-2313-2012.pdf

Regarding 137Cs, the inversion results indicate a total
emission of 36.6 (20.1–53.1) PBq, or about 43% of the estimated
Chernobyl emission. This means that nearly 2% of
the available inventory of the reactor cores in units 1–3 and
the spent-fuel pool in unit 4 was discharged into the atmosphere.
The inversion strongly increased the emissions early
on 12 March, around the time when the first explosion occurred
in unit 1. These early emissions were estimated lower
by the Japanese authorities, but are in accordance with the
first estimates published by Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics (2011). The highest release rates occurred
on 14 March, when hydrogen explosions occurred in reactor
units 3 and 4 and, presumably, unit 2. We also find unexpectedly
high 137Cs emissions from 16–19 March, which
suddenly dropped by orders of magnitude when spraying of
water on the spent-fuel pool of unit 4 started. Thus, we believe
that these high emissions are related to the degraded
fuel in the spent-fuel pool of unit 4, and this result would
also confirm that the spraying was an effective countermeasure
at least in this case.

Exactly
during and following the period of the highest 137Cs emission
rates on 14 and 15 March, the FD-NPP plume was advected
towards Japan and affected large areas in the east of
Honshu Island. The advection towards Japan was triggered
by a developing cyclone, which produced precipitation on 15
March, leading to the deposition of large fractions of the airborne
137Cs over Japanese land. However, the situation could
have been even much worse, as fortunately no rain occurred
at the time

During a second episode from 20–22 March, even larger
areas of Honshu were covered by the FD-NPP radioactive
cloud, from Shizuoka prefecture in the south to areas
north of FD-NPP. Strong frontal precipitation nearly completely
cleansed the atmosphere of 137Cs and again produced
strong deposition of this radionuclide over Honshu, including
Tokyo. This episode again followed a period of high (though
fortunately not as high as on 14–15 March) 137Cs emission
fluxes on 19 March, which were transported to Japan on 20
March.
 
  • #499
http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/2012/02/fukushima-contamination-chronique-et-p%C3%A9renne-irsn.html The French IRSN will publish a report on the Fukushima accident on the first anniversary of the accident [that must be on 11 March 2012].
Releases into the air:

radioactive noble gasses : 6550 PBq (petabecquerels =10^15 Bq) (≈ Chernobyl), mostly xenon 133 (133Xe, period of 5,3 years)

Radioactive iodines : 408 PBq (about one tenth of Chernobyl), including 197 PBq of iodine 131 (131I, period of 8 days) and 168 PBq of iodine 132 (132I, period de 2,3 hours)

Radioactive telluriums : 145 PBq including 108 PBq of tellurium 132 (132Te, period of 3,2 days) and 12 PBq of tellurium 129m (129mTe, period of 33,6 days)

Radioactive cesiums : 58 PBq (about three times less than Chernobyl), including 21 PBq of cesium 137 (137Cs, period of 30 years), 28 PBq of cesium 134 (134Cs, period of 2,1 years) and 9,8 PBq of cesium 136 (136Cs, period of 13,2 days)

http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/irsn-bilan-des-cons%C3%A9quences-environnementales-de-laccident-de-fukushima-28fev2012.pdf IRSN press release of 28 February 2012, page 3
 
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  • #500
tsutsuji said:
http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/2012/02/fukushima-contamination-chronique-et-p%C3%A9renne-irsn.html The French IRSN will publish a report on the Fukushima accident on the first anniversary of the accident [that must be on 11 March 2012].

"radioactive noble gasses : 6550 PBq (petabecquerels =10^15 Bq) (≈ Chernobyl), mostly xenon 133 (133Xe, period of 5,3 years)"

Xe-133 period is 5.2 days, not years.
 
  • #501
Xe-133 period is 5.2 days, not years.
oops. sorry for the mistake.

tsutsuji said:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120124/index.html As a countermeasure decided after finding that contaminated stones were delivered from a contaminated stone pit in Namie, the government is goint to check construction materials from the restricted zone. The namie stones were used in the concrete which was used to build a new appartment building in Nihonmatsu and high radiation levels were measured inside the appartments. A report will be issued within this month. Concerning the preparation of national safety level for construction materials, the nuclear disaster response headquarters said "it will take time to study it".

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120228/index.html A ministry of Economy and Industry study group is proposing a 100 Bq/kg safety limit for crushed stones.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120304/1040_ochiba.html The Forestry agency made a study of fallen leaves in 400 locations in Fukushima Prefecture. In a location 10 km west of the plant and in a location 25 km north-west of the plant the radiations were both 4,440,000 Bq/kg.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120305/index.html An NHK survey found that there is a strong suspicion that at least 5 people left isolated in the evacuated zone died of starvation. The body of a man in his seventies was found at the end of March on the second floor of a house located 5 km away from the plant. The first floor had been damaged by the tsunami. A woman in her sixties was found dead in her house in April. She had a chronic disease affecting her legs. Her house did not suffer large tsunami damage. All five bodies were thin as a consequence of losing weight. The police and the doctors who examined the bodies say that there is a high probability that they weren't able to evacuate by themselves or to call for help. The NHK found that the detailed causes of the bodies found on tsunami sites were not researched using autopsies and were counted as "drowned". The doctors say that it is possible that among the people counted as "drowned", some of them might have survived for some time and died later from a different cause. Several evacuation zone firemen testify that before the rescue operations were halted, they had heard voices of survivors trapped in the tsunami debris, calling for help. Yoshihisa Takano, a Namie fireman, recalls that after hearing voices and rattling in the debris, he went back to the town hall to call for help, but there weren't people or equipment available, and another tsunami warning came. Finally it was decided to resume rescue operations the next morning. But the next morning, the evacuated zone was extended to the 10 km range, and evacuating the 10 km range became the priority. "I am still regretting today that we did not go to rescue this/those person(s), although I had told him/them "we will come tomorrow for for help, please wait"".

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120305/1850_gashi.html According to an NHK survey, the number of patients from evacuated hospitals who died during the long hours of evacuation or after their health deteriorated shortly after evacuation is at least 68. Asked about the 5 people strongly suspected of having died of starvation, isolated at home or near their homes, the NISA said it is studying a revision of the guidelines so that cities and villages have to specify in their evacuation plans the method by which they will respond to the citizens who need help to evacuate, and the method by which they check that no citizen is left behind.
 
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  • #502
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20110316-866921/news/20120306-OYT1T01065.htm According to the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, the quantity of Cesium that flowed into the ocean is 6 times as much as the Tepco estimate. It was announced at a research reporting conference at JAEA on 6 March. This research is based on seawater samples in 500 locations and a simulation of cesium migration until 7 May 2011. The contaminated water that flowed into the ocean was estimated between 4200 and 5600 TBq of cesium. The cesium released into the atmophere that sunk into the ocean (with the rain, etc.) is estimated between 1200 and 1500 TBq.
 
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  • #503
tsutsuji said:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20110316-866921/news/20120306-OYT1T01065.htm According to the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, the quantity of Cesium that flowed into the ocean is 6 times as much as the Tepco estimate. It was announced at a research reporting conference at JAEA on 6 March. This research is based on seawater samples in 500 locations and a simulation of cesium migration until 7 May 2011. The contaminated water that flowed into the ocean was estimated between 4200 and 5600 TBq of cesium. The cesium released into the atmophere that sunk into the ocean (with the rain, etc.) is estimated between 1200 and 1500 TBq.

These estimates don't square with the IRSN estimates of about 58,000 Terabequerels of cesium. We are out by almost a factor of 10.
Also, the IRSN mentions very large early releases of tellurium, which presumably decay to iodine in short order. These were not mentioned afaik in the various TEPCO releases. Were they summarized with the iodine levels?
 
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  • #504
etudiant said:
These estimates don't square with the IRSN estimates of about 58,000 Terabequerels of cesium. We are out by almost a factor of 10.

I think they do. You compare the wrong levels.

First of all, IRSN claimed that 58 PBq of Cesium were released via the atmosphere, not water. Moreover, those 58 PBq are all kinds of Cesium - 137 (21 PBq), 136 (9.8 PBq) and 134 (28 PBq).

But there's another estimate for release into the ocean. They claim that 27 PBq of Cesium-137 was released into the sea.
TEPCOs initial estimate was 4.2 to 5.6 PBq C-137 released. Six times that estimate would be 25.2 to 33.6 PBq. Which puts it right into the vicinity of the IRSN estimate.
 
  • #505
clancy688 said:
I think they do. You compare the wrong levels.

First of all, IRSN claimed that 58 PBq of Cesium were released via the atmosphere, not water. Moreover, those 58 PBq are all kinds of Cesium - 137 (21 PBq), 136 (9.8 PBq) and 134 (28 PBq).

But there's another estimate for release into the ocean. They claim that 27 PBq of Cesium-137 was released into the sea.
TEPCOs initial estimate was 4.2 to 5.6 PBq C-137 released. Six times that estimate would be 25.2 to 33.6 PBq. Which puts it right into the vicinity of the IRSN estimate.

Thanks for the clarification.
I'm still confused. If 58 PBq of cesium is near correct, even after removing the ocean water release of 33 PBq, there are 25 PBq of airborne release to be accounted for.
Does that mean that TEPCO's initial estimate of 1.2 to 1.5 PBq was off by a factor of 15?
 
  • #506
etudiant said:
I'm still confused. If 58 PBq of cesium is near correct, even after removing the ocean water release of 33 PBq, there are 25 PBq of airborne release to be accounted for.

There's only 21 PBq of C137 aerial releases in that estimate, and as far as I understand, it doesn't include the water release. For IRSN, it's 21 PBq C137 air + 27 PBq C137 sea, which gives us a total release of 48 PBq C137 (~60% of the Chernobyl C137 air release).
The water release number of 27 PBq can't include aerial deposition since it was calculated with water samples taken 500 m away from the plant.

Does that mean that TEPCO's initial estimate of 1.2 to 1.5 PBq was off by a factor of 15?

I don't know where those 1.2 to 1.5 PBq come from, but I'm sure it's not TEPCO. Afaik TEPCO never gave us an estimate for atmospheric releases. It's probably a NISA or NSC number.
The first total atmospheric release estimates coming from NISA and NSC when they announced INES 7 was 6.1 and 12 PBq C137. Since then they upgraded their estimates to 15 and 11 PBq. But that's still way off the real numbers.

IRSN estimates, as mentioned above, 21 PBq. There's a recent paper created by atmospheric scientists which goes even further - they estimate that 20.1-53.1 (36.6 would be the middle value) PBq C137 was released into the atmosphere. Of which 80% was deposited over the Pacific.
So you get 27 PBq + 0.8 * 36.6 PBq as the total value of C137 which ended up in the Pacific.
 
  • #507
clancy688 said:
For IRSN, it's 21 PBq C137 air + 27 PBq C137 sea, which gives us a total release of 48 PBq C137

I don't know the details of the IRSN estimate, but one possibility is that the 27PBq include some cesium that was carried by air, and later sunk into the sea with the rain.

Where have the IRSN's 21 PBq of airborne cesium fallen ? onto the land (on Japan, on the Asian continent ? on the American continent ? etc.) or into the sea (into the Pacific Ocean ? into the Indian Ocean ? etc. ) ?

The amount of "between 1200 and 1500 TBq" from the JAMSTEC study mentioned in the Yomiuri article is perhaps not a quantity over the Pacific Ocean as a whole, but only over the part of the sea where the 500 sea water samples were taken ?

The Yomiuri article quotes Yasumasa Miyazawa, who published the following :

http://www.terrapub.co.jp/journals/GJ/pdf/2012e/460100e1.pdf Dispersion of artificial caesium-134 and -137 in the western North Pacific one month after the Fukushima accident, Geochemical Journal, 46, e1-e9 (Online published January 16, 2012)) [English]

The above paper relies on

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265931X11002463 Daisuke Tsumune, "Distribution of oceanic 137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant simulated numerically by a regional ocean model", Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Available online 8 November 2011

We then used a regional ocean model to simulate the 137Cs concentrations resulting from the direct release to the ocean off Fukushima and found that from March 26 to the end of May the total amount of 137Cs directly released was 3.5 ± 0.7 PBq ((3.5 ± 0.7) × 1015 Bq).
 
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  • #508
tsutsuji said:
Where have the IRSN's 21 PBq of airborne cesium fallen ? onto the land (on Japan, on the Asian continent ? on the American continent ? etc.) or into the sea (into the Pacific Ocean ? into the Indian Ocean ? etc. ) ?

iirc it was something like almost 80% Pacific, 20% over Japan and some insignificant bit for the rest of the world.
 
  • #509
tsutsuji said:
I don't know the details of the IRSN estimate, but one possibility is that the 27PBq include some cesium that was carried by air, and later sunk into the sea with the rain.

I don't think so. The 27 PBq estimate was calculated with water samples taken 500 metres away from the plant. So aerial deposition is most likely not included, since it happened over a surface of millions of square kilometres.
 
  • #510
clancy688 said:
I don't think so. The 27 PBq estimate was calculated with water samples taken 500 metres away from the plant. So aerial deposition is most likely not included, since it happened over a surface of millions of square kilometres.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. All it takes is some rain, or an atmospheric inversion day.
 

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