Long term rain forecast, causes and implications?

[mayflowers]

TL;DR Summary

Why would the east coast USA be slatted for 13 straight months of mostly raining week?

What are the causes and implications for an area in the USA to have a forecast of mostly rain and thunderstorms for next 3 months, straight? I've never experienced that before.

Yes it's just a forecast which we know, especially near the ocean, is tough to predict with accuracy.

Thanks for reading, and in advanced for any insights into this crazy rain forecast.

 

[berkeman]

TL;DR Summary: Why would the east coast USA be slatted for 13 straight months of mostly raining week?

What are the causes and implications for an area in the USA to have a forecast of mostly rain and thunderstorms for next 3 months, straight? I've never experienced that before.

Yes it's just a forecast which we know, especially near the ocean, is tough to predict with accuracy.

Thanks for reading, and in advanced for any insights into this crazy rain forecast.

3 months or 13 months? Is one a typo?

 

[mayflowers]

Sorry yes - 3 months; 12 weeks.

The week summary is thunderstorms for 10 of the 12, and rain for the other two. It seems like the rain will be about bi daily for 3 months. I'm used to biweekly.

 

[Baluncore]

What are the causes and implications for an area in the USA to have a forecast of mostly rain and thunderstorms for next 3 months, straight? I've never experienced that before.

Where does that long term forecast come from?

There is a seasonal shift in the latitude of weather system highs. Now is the equinoxes, so maximum shift rate, between winter and summer patterns.

If there is a major high to the north, and another high to the south, then there will be a line of low pressure systems, counter-rotating between the highs. That will result in one or more lows, (with cold fronts), passing each week, hence three months with cloud, in which it will rain on at least one day of each week.

Thunderstorms are associated with aerosols, (pollen, dust, smoke, and pollution), accompanied by the changing wind directions found in the rapidly rotating low pressure systems.

 

[Baluncore]

Here is a weather map of the USA, showing air pressure.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.1;-93.8;3&l=pressure
Notice the southern line of high pressure systems over Mexico and Florida, with the northern line over Canada. That has the zone of low pressure systems passing over Washington state, Chicago and New York.

 

[Klystron]

Here is a weather map of the USA, showing air pressure.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.1;-93.8;3&l=pressure

Woah, what an excellent series of maps. Recommend switching to other aspects, though 'air pressure' answers the OP's query. Studying the changing legend with each aspect provides a lesson in meteorology.

 

[Klystron]

This Washington Post weather article includes a rather comprehensive series of maps forecasting US weather for the next few days. Though the individual maps are less detailed than Ventusky (see above posts), the WaPo authors select regions, effects such as tornadoes, and provide some explanatory text.

Message me if you have paywall or other problems reading.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...ral-storms-flooding-rains-tornadoes-forecast/

 

[DaveC426913]

Read up on El Niño and La Niña. These are long-term, global-scale weather factors (2-7 years) that will result in shorter term, regional-scale changes in weather patterns.

You can't really understand long-term weather patterns in North America without an understanding of El Niño and La Niña.

 

[Klystron]

Here is today's WaPo update on extreme weather systems affecting US. I quote an excerpt concerning warnings:

• NOAA issued its highest risk level for excessive rainfall in five states.
• Tornadoes and flooding are expected in the Mid-South and central regions.
• Winter storm warnings were issued for North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota.
• Freezing rain is expected in Ontario, Quebec and northern New York.

From a local viewpoint from the SouthWest, the weather has turned gnarly with heavy rotating cloud cover, strong winds but little rain (usual for Mojave desert) so far. Wind this strong miles to the west of the storm fronts indicate intense activity as indicated by weather maps. Hold on to your hats.

 

[mayflowers]

See I knew this forum would be sick. Thanks everyone now and in advanced. Gunna keep my eyes peeled and ears wax free

 

[mayflowers]

Would anything from https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/ happen to influence global weather patterns? Things such as solar winds, solar flares, magnetic fields, and moon phases?

 

[Klystron]

Would anything from https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/ happen to influence global weather patterns? Things such as solar winds, solar flares, magnetic fields, and moon phases?

What have you learned from studying this subject and from 'space weather' diagrams?

(PF generally asks posters to display their work on questions in order to gauge their knowledge level and understanding and to stimulate learning.)

This long running Astrophysics thread addresses many of the issues raised in your post. PF member @Stavros Kiri displays considerable interest in solar weather and related topics.

(Placing an ampersand @ symbol before the member name brings up a list that pings or alerts that member.)

---

edit 20250403: corrected symbol name for pinging members. Use @ sign.

 

[Tom.G]

re the "@" symbol.
I learned at an early age that @ was used in the commercial world to indicate a per-unit price.
i.e. instead of "20 item xyz 'at the rate of' $4 each $80" (per Google AI)
It would be written as "20 item xyz @$4 $80"

Of course the Britannica has much to say about the 1536 introduction of '@'.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/at-sign

Enough of this inane research.
Cheers,
Tom

 

[Klystron]

Some clarification:

With focus of this thread pivoting from Earth Science to Astrophysics, I included brief user instructions for the new member to alert another member in a different forum.

Since writing in natural language, I used label ampersat = at sign = @ but typed ampersand in error. A vigilant member noted my mistake and alerted me by direct messaging (DM).

 

[mayflowers]

What have you learned from studying this subject and from 'space weather' diagrams?

Frankly, I haven't (seriously) tried to synthesize all of the charts and numbers for my own deeper understanding. I just look at them and hope that eventually a pattern may emerge.

For that reason, i am curious if anyone knew which of the charts and numbers affect global weather, and how. If I had some direction on how things were already known to be related, I would be better able to find meaning in the charts and numbers.

 

[Klystron]

Frankly, I haven't (seriously) tried to synthesize all of the charts and numbers for my own deeper understanding. I just look at them and hope that eventually a pattern may emerge.

For that reason, i am curious if anyone knew which of the charts and numbers affect global weather, and how. If I had some direction on how things were already known to be related, I would be better able to find meaning in the charts and numbers.

Solar sunspot cycles now known to be indicative of solar magnetic activity have been a focus of scientific research and discovery since the first confirmed observations of 'spots' appearing on the sun.

My father wrote a paper while attending NYC college before WWII tying sunspot maxima and minima to terrestrial agriculture, comparing grain yields and rainfall patterns with solar observations and aurora borealis. IIRC statistics inferred an 11-year sunspot cycle overlayed on a 22-year grain futures graph. This anecdote shows several viable approaches to study.

Statistical. Choose a preferred sector, say rainfall and drought patterns suggested by this thread title. Connect these stats with solar storm activity indicated by coronal mass ejections (CME), proton detectors, satellite data and aurora observations using data gleaned from the sources documented above.

Charting grain futures was an old-time approach before practical space exploration existed but similar data, say from solar storm interference with high-voltage transmission lines and international communications interference, could bolster understanding.

Empirical. Solar astronomy relies on networks of scientists, hobbyists and dedicated users who share information and new discoveries. @Stavros Kiri recently updated this thread with amazing photographs of auroras linked to solar activity. Relating this with weather maps might be instructive.
.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Solar sunspot cycles now known to be indicative of solar magnetic activity have been a focus of scientific research and discovery since the first confirmed observations of 'spots' appearing on the sun.

My father wrote a paper while attending NYC college before WWII tying sunspot maxima and minima to terrestrial agriculture, comparing grain yields and rainfall patterns with solar observations and aurora borealis. IIRC statistics inferred an 11-year sunspot cycle overlayed on a 22-year grain futures graph. This anecdote shows several viable approaches to study.

Statistical. Choose a preferred sector, say rainfall and drought patterns suggested by this thread title. Connect these stats with solar storm activity indicated by coronal mass ejections (CME), proton detectors, satellite data and aurora observations using data gleaned from the sources documented above.

Charting grain futures was an old-time approach before practical space exploration existed but similar data, say from solar storm interference with high-voltage transmission lines and international communications interference, could bolster your understanding.

Empirical. Solar astronomy relies on networks of scientists, hobbyists and dedicated users who share information and new discoveries. @Stavros Kiri recently updated this thread with amazing photographs of auroras linked to solar activity. Relating this with weather maps might be instructive.
.

A) Besides the 11 (and/or 22) year cycle (based on Solar Activity), which [, as far as I know {based on about 3 years ago look up} – but I haven't kept up with the new research on that particular climate influence related topic for the period in between ...}], is not certain whether and how it affects climate on Earth (complicated and controversial issue – I may get back on this at a later time with some official [and perhaps more recent] main-stream references of research on the subject/topic ...), there are also influences on the ground from severe geomagnetic storm cases (starting and above category G3, G4, not to mention G5 [like the one(s) on May 10-12 2024] ...), especially with electrical currents even on rocks and soil (that even farmers may observe and encounter problems with them etc. – see some posts in the Solar Activity & Space Weather Update thread ...). Now these currents, Electromagnetically, theoretically as well as directly practically too (I assume), would affect clouds too in the Atmosphere (due to potentially electrical charge etc. ...). And then (at least in those cases of severe storms) that would potentially influence (at least short term) weather on the ground too.
And then, since severe storms on the Sun statistically follow or happen in max, as said, 11/22 year cycles etc., that could perhaps tie things up for long term weather stats too, and that is not even the only reason. But the topic is still I think quite disputable and an open field of study, as far as I know ...

Paging also @davenn ...

B) Coincidentally enough, there was a severe (but brief) solar storm [max category G4, i.e. briefly reached so] a couple of days ago, which actually did produce such currents too throughout the US ... . e.g. Take a look at this (summary from the Solar thread latest post ...):

GEOMAGNETIC GROUND CURRENTS IN NORTH AMERICA: Space weather doesn't only happen in the sky. It's in the ground, too. This week's severe geomagnetic storm caused electrical currents to flow in rocks and soil. A NOAA map of the event shows where geoelectric voltages were highest in North America, highlighting areas most vulnerable to power outages.

[diagram coming up too]
(posted these here almost at the same time or a bit earlier that in the Solar thread ... - see there too for latest details etc. ...)

​

​ Above: A map of geoelectric voltages during the peak of the April 16th severe geomagnetic storm

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[Barakn]

The maximum value in Stavros Kiri's geoelectric field map is 568 mV/km. On a fair weather day, the potential gradient of the atmosphere at the Earth's surface is 100 V/m, i.e. roughly 170,000x stronger. It's one thing to provide a map with lots of interesting colors, it's another to prove that there's any real-world consequence beyond large currents in extremely long, highly conductive (and thus usually human-made) objects.

I am also dismayed by the wheat futures anecdote. 22 years would not be enough to prove anything, and it sounds a little to much like hunting for correlations in multiple datasets. Look long enough, and statistically you're bound to find them, but they may be spurious. As is oft said, correlation does not imply causation.
What is needed is a plausible physical mechanism that directly affects weather, not studying economic series dependent on agriculture dependent on weather and a thousand other variables. Henrik Svensmark's work comes to mind, but the scientific community is largely dismissive of it, especially those aspects of it which led Svensmark to claim that cosmic rays have more affect on climate change than CO2. The consensus is that solar variability plays a minor part, but mostly at the regional level, not global.