Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 crash

[Greg Bernhardt]

I think this is a very interesting story. Let's get some discussion on it!
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

At the moment CNN is reporting

"Tickets linked to stolen passports for missing Malaysia flight were purchased by Iranian man, authorities say"

If it were terrorism, what could be the motive? Who has a beef with the Malaysians?

 

[Vanadium 50]

The plane was going to China. The Chinese government and the Uyghurs aren't exactly getting along - c.f. Kunming. And some of the Indonesian Islamist violence was led by Malaysians: the 2002 and 2005 Bali bombings, the 2003 and 2009 Djakarta Marriott bombings, and the 2004 Australian Embassy bombing.

I have no evidence - but there are plenty of suspects.

 

[arildno]

I wouldn't be too sure that just because somebody traveled with fake passports, then this must have been terrorists.

Apart from the human tragedy involved , what I at present (not knowing if this was a malignant terrorist attack) find the most shocking is the revelation that, apparently, all the security measures are just sham, in particular, airport security do not even bother to check up passports against Interpol's lists of stolen passports.

I'm sure criminals all across the world knows this, and are happily flying around the globe on stolen passports ALL THE TIME.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

what I at present (not knowing if this was a malignant terrorist attack) find the most shocking is the revelation that, apparently, all the security measures are just sham, in particular, airport security do not even bother to check up passports against Interpol's lists of stolen passports.

I'm sure criminals all across the world knows this, and are happily flying around the globe on stolen passports ALL THE TIME.

I agree, there needs to be outrage. We all know airport security is just for show, but I still had faith in the passport side of things. In this day and age it shouldn't be difficult or costly to properly run passport checks.

 

[arildno]

I agree, there needs to be outrage. We all know airport security is just for show, but I still had faith in the passport side of things. In this day and age it shouldn't be difficult or costly to properly run passport checks.

I'm sure there already exists a software that in the course of a few milliseconds would determine whether a particular passport was on the interpol alert list.

Nor should it be difficult to institute an obligatory measure for airport security to regularly send into some central authority traffic data over registered numbers of passport-dependent passengers versus computer registered checks on how many passports were actually checked. It should be easy to make this a wholly automated process.

 

[Borek]

What sense does the terrorist attack make when it is not obvious it is a terrorist attack?

 

[arildno]

What sense does the terrorist attack make when it is not obvious it is a terrorist attack?

Timer of bomb having been set too early, prior to planned broadcast of terror message??

 

[jim hardy]

Any weather gurus here?
This is supposed to be water vapor of the area at the time.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/140307_coms1_wv_mh370_anim.gif
click the link - image is too big...


You just don't mess with thunderstorms that get up to 35,000 feet..

Also in 2012 this happened to its wingtip.

courtesy http://airflightdisaster.com/index.php/9m-mro-fender-bender-long-before-flight-mh370/


One hopes [STRIKE]fiberglass[/STRIKE] repairs are done by a trustworthy shop.
(oops - i forget which models are plastic, which aluminum)

 

[micromass]

What sense does the terrorist attack make when it is not obvious it is a terrorist attack?

Could be a test run?

 

[arildno]

Anyhow, the latest I've heard is that they are going to check through seismic data that would contain traces IF there was an explosion up in the air. (Some sort of registerable shock wave would have to have been generated in that case?)

 

[Borek]

Anyhow, the latest I've heard is that they are going to check through seismic data that would contain traces IF there was an explosion up in the air. (Some sort of registerable shock wave would have to have been generated in that case?)

No idea about air explosions. But I do remember explosion on Kursk was registered by some seismographic stations near you (well, in Scandinavia, could be Sweden or Finland).

 

[DevilsAvocado]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine_disaster#Secondary_explosion

"The second explosion was equivalent to 2-3 tons of TNT, [...] was measured 4.2 on the Richter scale on seismographs across Europe and was detected as far away as Alaska."

 

[Borek]

Perhaps reports from Scandinavia were just the first that hit the news here.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Yes probably, NORSAR apparently have lot of 'equipment' up there, arildno probably knows more about this.

 

[AlephZero]

"The second explosion was equivalent to 2-3 tons of TNT, [...] was measured 4.2 on the Richter scale on seismographs across Europe and was detected as far away as Alaska."

Sound travels through water with much less dispersion than through air - think whale songs, for example. There is also the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOFAR_channel effect.

But there may be an equivalent mechanism in the upper atmosphere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mogul

 

[arildno]

Well, I dunno. It was a snippet I overheard on the public radio. Last I read, suspicion of terror is less marked now.

 

[mheslep]

What sense does the terrorist attack make when it is not obvious it is a terrorist attack?

Exactly. Could have been, but the absence of some message at least after the fact argues against it.

 

[mheslep]

No idea about air explosions. But I do remember explosion on Kursk was registered by some seismographic stations near you (well, in Scandinavia, could be Sweden or Finland).

That was TNT or a derivative, which doesn't require air and therefore can explode rapidly with a large shock wave. If explosive was smuggled on the plane it's unlikely it was more than a few kilos, and jet fuel requires an air mix thus burns relatively slowly without help.

 

[lisab]

Wouldn't shallow water (~100 meters) reduce the distance that signals from "black boxes" can travel?

 

[edward]

The aircraft was equipped with a maintenance computer capable of talking to the ground automatically through short messages known as ACARS. "There were no signals from ACARS from the time the aircraft disappeared," a source involved in the investigations said.

How about signals before the aircraft disappeared?

Also raising doubts about the possibility of an attack, the United States extensively reviewed imagery taken by spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none, a U.S. government source said. The source described U.S. satellite coverage of the region as thorough.

No explosion, at least no big explosion.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140310

We seem to be getting a lot of "a source said" type of statements.

 

[SteamKing]

Wouldn't shallow water (~100 meters) reduce the distance that signals from "black boxes" can travel?

It's not clear what you mean by 'reduce the distance'.

The flight recorders are equipped with a device which emits underwater pings at a constant rate. If a ship equipped with a hydrophone is nearby, the pings should allow for the location of the recorders.

http://rjeint.com/pdf/DK120.PDF

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_locator_beacon

The search for the debris from Air France flight 447 was so extended that the pingers had ceased functioning. Although a rough search area on the bottom of the Atlantic was determined by analysis of sonar data taken early in the search, the wreckage was located only after side-scan sonar was used to examine the ocean bottom and find the debris field, much like had been done when searching for the wreck of the Titanic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

At least the searchers for the Air France jet had some clues as to where to look in the form of recognizable debris which search vessels found floating after the crash. In the case of Flight 370, these clues appear to be lacking.

 

[AlephZero]

No explosion, at least no big explosion.

People can do amazingly dumb things when flying planes. I once talked to a pilot working for a large UK company who flew freight aircraft, mostly night flights between the UK and Europe. One time, crossing the North Sea he suddenly became aware of a loud bang. ("Suddenly because aware" may or may not imply that he was asleep at the time - that piece of information might be self-incriminating!). Looking at the instruments, the altimeter was reading zero. Assuming the altimeter was faulty, he put the plane into a gentle climb, and then started to investigate. Finding nothing apparently wrong except the altimeter, when he had climbed about 10,000 ft he asked air traffic control to give him an altitude check, which said he was flying at ... 10,000 ft.

He landed uneventfully at his scheduled destination, and walking round the aircraft discovered a large stain on the underside of the fuselage that looked rather like dried salt.

His conclusion: for some unknown reason the autopilot had disconnected, he had gently descended to sea level, and by good luck the fuselage hit a wave before the engines did.

Some you win, some you lose - find somebody happy to wash the salt off with a hosepipe for a small cash payment, and no incident report required

(His co-pilot had no involvement in any of this - he was in the galley cooking their dinners).

 

[Monique]

I agree, there needs to be outrage. We all know airport security is just for show, but I still had faith in the passport side of things. In this day and age it shouldn't be difficult or costly to properly run passport checks.

According to Interpol in 2013 more than a billion travelers boarded an airplane, without their passport being compared to the SLTD database.

 

[arildno]

According to Interpol in 2013 more than a billion travelers boarded an airplane, without their passport being compared to the SLTD database.

Wouldn't most of those be, say, passengers on intra-state travels, or within regions not requiring passport identifications, such as within the EU?
Or are those not included in the Interpol stats?

Anyhow, Interpol has made a statement that they are inclined to believe this incident was NOT a terrorist attack; saying, for example, that the one traveling on the Austrian passport was trying to reach his mum in Germany.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
As for the other one, traveling on "Luigi" passport, a Norwegian newspaper today has spoken with a man in Sweden, who says his cousin was seeking to get to Sweden, in order to seek asylum there.

Fake passports for hopeful asylum seekers has become big business.

 

[Monique]

Wouldn't most of those be, say, passengers on intra-state travels, or within regions not requiring passport identifications, such as within the EU?
Or are those not included in the Interpol stats?

This includes people traveling within Schengen countries, for instance. It does make a no-fly list quite useless, if flying with a stolen passport is something that remains undetected.

Anyhow, Interpol has made a statement that they are inclined to believe this incident was NOT a terrorist attack; saying, for example, that the one traveling on the Austrian passport was trying to reach his mum in Germany.

Indeed, traveling with a stolen passport does not make one a terrorist.

 

[lisab]

It's not clear what you mean by 'reduce the distance'.

The flight recorders are equipped with a device which emits underwater pings at a constant rate. If a ship equipped with a hydrophone is nearby, the pings should allow for the location of the recorders.

http://rjeint.com/pdf/DK120.PDF

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_locator_beacon

The search for the debris from Air France flight 447 was so extended that the pingers had ceased functioning. Although a rough search area on the bottom of the Atlantic was determined by analysis of sonar data taken early in the search, the wreckage was located only after side-scan sonar was used to examine the ocean bottom and find the debris field, much like had been done when searching for the wreck of the Titanic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

At least the searchers for the Air France jet had some clues as to where to look in the form of recognizable debris which search vessels found floating after the crash. In the case of Flight 370, these clues appear to be lacking.

By distance, I mean how far the "ping" signal can travel and be picked up by a hydrophone. How does water depth affect that distance?

 

[arildno]

This includes people traveling within Schengen countries, for instance. It does make a no-fly list quite useless, if flying with a stolen passport is something that remains undetected.

That some countries decide to dispense with passport requirements for travellers between their countries doesn't mean one shouldn't keep track of travellers traveling across passport-zones. But, evidently, that lack of inspection is precisely what happened in this Malaysian case.

 

[SteamKing]

By distance, I mean how far the "ping" signal can travel and be picked up by a hydrophone. How does water depth affect that distance?

The surface and bottom of the ocean act as reflectors of sound waves generated underwater. Like radio waves bouncing off the bottom of the ionosphere, this can help sound travel farther than one would expect. There are many other factors involved in how sound propagates underwater though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_acoustics

 

[SteamKing]

It seems that in the absence of evidence that Flight 370 went down in the South China Sea, the search effort has been extended to cover possible areas where the plane may have crashed on land. Reuters is reporting that the Malaysian military radars last picked up Flight 370 over the northern end of the Strait of Malacca, well to the west of its course to Beijing, so looking in the South China Sea or the Gulf of Thailand would not turn up anything.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140311

The search area has shifted to the west and five new search regions in the Andaman Sea have been established.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...6882-a875-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_graphic.html

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Anyhow, Interpol has made a statement that they are inclined to believe this incident was NOT a terrorist attack; saying, for example, that the one traveling on the Austrian passport was trying to reach his mum in Germany.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
As for the other one, traveling on "Luigi" passport, a Norwegian newspaper today has spoken with a man in Sweden, who says his cousin was seeking to get to Sweden, in order to seek asylum there.

True, Pouria Nour Mohammad Mehrdad was going to Germany and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Erza was going to Sweden.

Delavar Seyed Mohammad Erza, 29

Pouria Nour Mohammad Mehrdad, 19

(source www.aftonbladet.se)

 

[arildno]

OKay, it seems that about 800 million searches in the Interpol database is done every year, above 50% of those by the US, UK and United Arab Emirates.
Here are the results of such searches:
"Interpol's Stolen and Lost Travel Documents database was created in 2002, following the September 11, 2001, attacks, to help countries secure their borders. Since then, it has expanded from a few thousand passports and searches to more than 40 million entries and more than 800 million searches per year.

About 60,000 of those 800 million searches yield hits against stolen or lost documents, according to Interpol."
Thus, slightly less than 0.01% seems to be the best guestimate here (not including non-registered stolen ones, that is).
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/10/travel/malaysia-airlines-stolen-passports/index.html

 

[Bobbywhy]

Just for everyone's information, the underwater "locater pinger" that will emit acoustic pulses for at least 30 days is described here:
http://rjeint.com/pdf/DK120.PDF

 

[SteamKing]

Just for everyone's information, the underwater "locater pinger" that will emit acoustic pulses for at least 30 days is described here:
http://rjeint.com/pdf/DK120.PDF

See Post #21.

 

[Bobbywhy]

See Post #21.

OOPS! Excuse me, please. I missed your inclusion of that website in post #21!.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Here is a playback of the ADS-B transponder on MAS370 at Flightradar24.com:

http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/16:54/12x/MAS370/2d81a27

For those interested in more info on the MAS370 radar stuff, here's the thread on the Flightradar24 forum:
http://forum.flightradar24.com/thre...t-Goes-Missing-En-Route-to-China-Flight-MH370

And for those with spare time, DigitalGlobe has launched a "Crowdsourcing Campaign" where you can help find the (remains of) MAS370 on satellite images:
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014

(apparently too many with spare time... server overload today...)