Margin of error for standard deviation

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the margin of error for the standard deviation when each data point has an associated margin of error, denoted as E. Participants explore the implications of this margin on the standard deviation and the mean, with a focus on a specific case involving three data points. The conversation includes mathematical formulations and considerations related to error propagation.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents the formula for the standard deviation and asks how to determine the maximum margin of error for it when each data point has a margin of error of ±E.
  • Another participant notes that the standard deviation presented is a sample standard deviation, suggesting that some texts might use a different divisor in the formula.
  • A participant introduces a mathematical approach to define the errors in the data points and proposes finding bounds for the difference between the modified standard deviation and the original standard deviation.
  • There is a question about whether the term "margin of error" refers to a confidence interval, indicating some uncertainty about terminology.
  • One participant suggests a geometric interpretation of the problem, describing how the true values of the data points form a cube and how to evaluate distances to find maximum and minimum standard deviations.
  • Another participant expresses interest in considering the standard deviation of the standard deviation itself, proposing to reinterpret E in terms of standard deviations of the measurements.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the best approach to calculate the margin of error for the standard deviation, and multiple competing views and interpretations of the problem remain. There is also uncertainty regarding the terminology used in the context of margin of error.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the complexity of the problem, including the dependence on definitions and the need for careful consideration of boundaries and geometric interpretations. The discussion reflects various assumptions about the nature of errors and their propagation in statistical calculations.

CarlosMarti12
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Hello, I am trying to calculate what the margin of error for the standard deviation would be if each data point has a margin of error E. The standard deviation (for 3 data points) is defined as

σ = \sqrt{\frac{(x_{1}-μ)^{2}+(x_{2}-μ)^{2}+(x_{3}-μ)^{2}}{3}}

Where

μ = \frac{x_{1}+x_{2}+x_{3}}{3}

In other words, x_{n} for n = 1, 2, or 3 has a margin of error of ±E. Is there a way to find what the maximum margin of error would be for the standard deviation, given the margin of error for each individual data point? (Notice that the margin of error would affect the mean value of μ as well.)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
 
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CarlosMarti12 said:
The standard deviation (for 3 data points) is defined as

σ = \sqrt{\frac{(x_{1}-μ)^{2}+(x_{2}-μ)^{2}+(x_{3}-μ)^{2}}{3}}

Where

μ = \frac{x_{1}+x_{2}+x_{3}}{3}

This is apparently a "sample standard deviation" rather than the standard deviation of a probability distribution. You can define the sample standard deviation of a sample of 3 things that way, but some texts would say divide by 2 instead of by 3 in your first equation. Let's say we define it your way.

In other words, x_{n} for n = 1, 2, or 3 has a margin of error of ±E. Is there a way to find what the maximum margin of error would be for the standard deviation, given the margin of error for each individual data point? (Notice that the margin of error would affect the mean value of μ as well.)

If you are talking about "margin of error" in the sense of the rules of thumb used in lab measurements, then I don't know the answer. These rules of thumb seem to vary from textbook to textbook.

If you are talking about a real math problem --- well, now your talking!

Let the errors in x_1, x_2,x_3 be respectively e_1, e_2, e_3.


Define

\mu_e = \frac{ (x_1 + e_1) + (x_2 + e_2) + (x_3 + e_3)}{3}

\sigma_e = \sqrt{ \frac{(x_1 + e_1 - \mu_e)^2 + (x_2 + e_2 - \mu_e)^2 + (x3 + e_3 - \mu_e)^2 }{3}}

F(e_1,e_2,e_3) = \sigma_e - \sigma

Regarding x_1, x_2, x_3 as constants the problem is:

Given

-E \le e_1 \le E
- E \le e_2 \le E
-E \le e_3 \le E

Find the tightest bounds L, U such that

L \le F(e_1,e_2,e_3) \le U

If we have to, we can approach this as multi-variable caclulus problem:

Find the max and min values of F(e_1,e_2,e_3) subject to the above constraints on the e_i.

That would involve taking partial derivative of F with respect to the e_i and setting them equal to zero. If would also involve checking all the "boundary" cases. Before we worry about that, let's see if the above is a correct statement of you question.

In a probabilistic setting for errors this formulation gives a worst case analysis, which may be an unlikely case.
 
CarlosMarti12 said:
Hello, I am trying to calculate what the margin of error for the standard deviation would be if each data point has a margin of error E. The standard deviation (for 3 data points) is defined as

σ = \sqrt{\frac{(x_{1}-μ)^{2}+(x_{2}-μ)^{2}+(x_{3}-μ)^{2}}{3}}

Where

μ = \frac{x_{1}+x_{2}+x_{3}}{3}

In other words, x_{n} for n = 1, 2, or 3 has a margin of error of ±E. Is there a way to find what the maximum margin of error would be for the standard deviation, given the margin of error for each individual data point? (Notice that the margin of error would affect the mean value of μ as well.)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

By "margin of error ±E" you mean a confidence interval? I am not sure what you mean.
 
CarlosMarti12, you ask for the "maximum margin of error". Taking that literally, think of it geometrically. The feasible 'true' values for the triple x1, x2, x3 form a cube of side 2E. The point where they all equal the observed mean may be inside or outside the cube. Sigma is (proportional to) the distance from that point to a point in the cube.
So you can just evaluate the distance from the 'mean point' to each of the eight vertices to find the max sigma.
The min sigma is more complicated. It can be 0, or the distance to the nearest face of the cube, or the distance to the nearest edge of the cube, or the distance to the nearest vertex of the cube. This will be according to whether the mean lies inside the +/-E range of all, 2, 1 or none of the measurements.

That said, I would consider the standard deviation of sigma more interesting. For that, it would be best to reinterpret E as some number of standard deviations of the measurements.
 

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