Ivan Seeking said:
Clean and highly efficient diesel cars are already popular in Europe, and with the ultra-low sulfur fuels now required in the US, we can run diesel cars here. [note that biodiesel contains no sulfur]. In fact we are now seeing diesel pumps at most filling stations, which is new.
I wasn't talking about the distribution or the cars: that's one of the evident advantages of biodiesel, that it will require few if any modifications to the current way of using fuel for transport. (btw, I'm surprised: I have seen diesel pumps in filling stations, and diesel cars since I was a kid). This is THE big advantage of the biofuel approach. No, the time scale I was talking about was to set up such an amount of practical and economical production of biofuel that it can essentially replace about all oil consumption (which is indeed essentially for transport, and also for heating, which can also be done transparently), and that on top of that there is sufficient economical growth to start replacing electricity production on large scale. Because, promising as it may seem, I still want to see it done on such a large scale.
I was saying that if there is an "upper limit" on the practice of making biofuel for everything in 10-15 years time, and if the horizon of practical large scale electricity production by biofuel, after already having replaced mineral oil about everywhere, is more on the 40 years time scale, or if there are more fundamental problems to going to such large scales which put this to an undefined time horizon then it might still be useful to switch from coal to nuclear in the mean time.
Forty years ago, when I was a kid, it was all but a foregone conclusion that by now we would have practical electric cars running on fusion power; and flying cars for that matter! But the point is that we can't count on any future technology to save us from the plight of oil. And even if we eventually see an electric battery that makes electric cars practical [we have no gaurantee that will EVER happen] we still don't know that it will ever be possible to fly planes and power trucks on electric power. The only other option for this would be to burn hydrogen produced using nuclear power, but this will not be possible for decades because we don't have the power. However, jet aircraft have already been flown, and many commercial trucks are now running on biodiesel.
I agree. But again, let's see the speed and the growth potential: we're still talking about a technology in its infancy ; hopefully the biofuel will not be the new fusion power of 40 years ago, which didn't keep its promises. As I said, if we can go to this biofuel for transportation and other uses of oil, that would be great, but it is a challenge of scale. I'm absolutely not arguing for electric cars, it would be a major change and it also has a lot of technological challenges. The electric car, however, has had another problem, which might now be undone: the very cheap and reliable car on petrol. There was simply no market incentive. Expensive oil might change this. But if biofuel comes along, then that can solve the issue also.
I've always been against biofuels because I always saw them competing for the same resources as other human needs, like water and agriculture. I found this an extremely dangerous path to walk. But given that this problem isn't the case with this algae thing, I really like it. But again, one still has to show how it will work out on large scale. Nuclear is to me the proven technology that can help us out with electricity ; I don't think that there is much promise in the hyped PV or wind at this point, for which to me the main difficulty which remains unsolved is the intermittency - even apart from its price. Maybe biofuels can also be a competing technology for electricity production, and if in the near enough future they prove to be a better technology, then I'm all for it, and I'm willing to put nuclear aside. But first, replace oil already. We'll see after that. At least, biofuels don't seem to have a fundamental difficulty such as intermittency, and CAN be seen as a real solution to electricity production. I have to say it is the FIRST time I see another potentially realistic solution, apart from nuclear, to produce electricity without restriction, in large quantities, when demanded. It is time to stop harassing people to "economize" electricity: it should flow in large and cheap quantities. Nuclear can do that, and if bio fuel can do that, then it is the first worthy competitor of nuclear in that respect, which might win the competition. Future will tell. Maybe one should seriously rethink the current fashion for PV and wind turbines, which have in any case not the potential to bring a serious solution in the next decades.