Nuclear power won't fix the energy problem

[Ivan Seeking]

In the midst of the debate about the price of oil, constantly we hear the reference to nuclear power as a solution. This is a fallacious argument that I have probably heard referenced at least 50 times, here, and in the news media.

As is evident from McCain's suggestion of a 300 million dollar prize for the company that can develop an effective battery for electric automobiles, which is silly because there is already incentive enough, we don't have practical electric cars. Indeed, it has never been shown that a practical electric car can ever be made that would compete with the performance of traditional transportation technologies, much less at a competitive price. Nor can industry use electric power for shipping, trucking, aviation, etc. Nor do we have the infrastructure to support a nation of electric cars and trucks.

We can certainly fill little nitches in the transportation needs of the average person with electric vehicles, but in the grand scheme of things, the only option to oil is to use alternative fuels. Don't be fooled by the red herring of nuclear power as an option to oil. We wouldn't be able to use it.

 

[russ_watters]

Odd, but except for the title, I don't see anything in that post that has anything to do with nuclear power. The point of the post seems to be that electric cars aren't viable. Agreed. So what does that have to do with nuclear power?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Nuclear power is often discussed within the context of the oil crisis. It is a misleading and fruitless discussion because we don't have viable electric cars.

For one, we saw this here in the thread about $139 a barrel oil.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=239058

And also in the thread about genetically modified organisms
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=241122

I agree that the electric grid is another issue of concern, but it has little to nothing to do with the price of oil.

 

[Distortion]

But...if we use nuclear power instead of coal we can use the steam powered engine again! America has enough coal lol.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

But...if we use nuclear power instead of coal we can use the steam powered engine again! America has enough coal lol.

Yes, on that point one has to consider whether it is cheaper to produce clean energy from coal, or cheaper to make the nuclear industry failsafe; including against the unintended proliferation of nuclear materials, as well as against terrorist attacks and sabotage. Since I don't believe anything can be made failsafe... And in fact a viable alternative fuel could replace coal.

 

[Distortion]

I was making a joke, sry if it was transparent.

It is obvious that we will not be taking around portable nuclear cars. No one will disagree with you on that point. However, I have heard it discussed that in the next ten years or earlier we will need more power plants for daily use power. Nuclear power is very clean, produces little waste, and more importantly produces a lot of power!

 

[vanesch]

In the midst of the debate about the price of oil, constantly we hear the reference to nuclear power as a solution. This is a fallacious argument that I have probably heard referenced at least 50 times, here, and in the news media.

I think you are right in the middle term that no form of electricity production can do something seriously about transportation, but then one should also say the same about solar and wind power. I have to say that I was against biofuels on land for different reasons (low - or negative ? - efficiency etc...) but I have to say that your algae look promising.

The main reason to switch to nuclear is to get rid of the massive use of fossil fuels, and especially coal, mainly for their CO2 production and the possibility of AGW and the danger they represent to public health. Also, the US has serious coal reserves, but not all nations have that. Nuclear is much healthier than coal - contrary to all propaganda against it.

In the long term, I'm not sure whether electric, or hydrogen cars are not a possibility. If in the mean time algae come up big time, then I guess the market will decide (with a serious advantage for biofuels, which requires the minimal change in infrastructure and technology).

In that case, we have two solutions for the transport problem, both which get rid of CO2 production and of oil. So that's going to be ok.

But there are contradictions in the "green" discourse - simply because they hate for ideological reasons - nuclear. It's the basis of their trade. Why do they annoy people with "reducing energy consumption" which they put equal to electricity consumption ? Why do they promote wind and solar ? Also to "solve the oil crisis" ? No, the only effect this can have is to reduce electricity production by coal, and that is something that contributes to less CO2 exhaust, and less pollution (public health) ; however, nuclear does so too, and in "unlimited" quantities, for a reasonable price.

In other words, as you correctly point out, there's no link yet between "oil consumption" and "electricity consumption". If we only have a problem with oil, then people shouldn't be annoyed to switch off their TV sets instead of holding them in standby, and they shouldn't be showing off "I have low-consumption light bulbs"...
It is only because coal pollutes and produces CO2 that turning down electricity production, produced with coal, is beneficial. The other solution would be to produce electricity with a clean technology, such as nuclear (brrrrr!) or wind and solar...

However, wind and solar face a serious problem (apart from being gigantic and expensive): they don't produce electricity when we need it! As long as it is a minority contribution, the other means of production can adapt and buffer, but as of now we don't know any technology that could run a country electrically on, say, 70% solar and wind. And the reason why is exactly the same as with electric cars (but scaled up!): we have no way to store electricity. True, there are pumping stations, but they should be monstrous to take over base load.

So in order for solar and wind to be potentially a majority source of electricity in a country, we have to solve the same problem as what is used as an argument against electric cars: good "batteries" of one or other kind. So in as much as, without this, nuclear (or wind, or solar) is not going to be a replacement for cars (and oil consumption), in the same way, wind and solar are not going to replace coal for electricity production. Nuclear can without problems.

So one is mixing a lot of technologies and what is presented as an unsurmountable difficulty for one point (to serve one's agenda) is going to be a non-problem for another (again, to serve one's agenda).

In summary: nuclear is a good, clean, and working replacement for electricity production with coal. It kills much less people through pollution, and it doesn't produce CO2. Solar and wind cannot yet come close until we have a good way to store electricity.
No source of electricity production can solve the transport problem until we have a good way to store electricity, or run on hydrogen. So it won't replace oil consumption. However, biofuels can in principle, as long as they don't use land agricultural surface.

 

[vanesch]

or cheaper to make the nuclear industry failsafe; including against the unintended proliferation of nuclear materials, as well as against terrorist attacks and sabotage. Since I don't believe anything can be made failsafe... And in fact a viable alternative fuel could replace coal.

The nuclear industry (in the west) is already "failsafe" for ages. That doesn't mean that nothing can happen, but it means that on the long term, it generates on average much less victims than most other human activities - which should be the criterium for "failsafe". I'm not sure that one can call the oil industry "failsafe" either. What we have to see, is what is the risk (the probability that an average person will die of it), and how that risk compares to other risks that are accepted. No matter how you do that, it turns out that nuclear is at least 4 or 5 orders of magnitude safer than driving cars. Not many industrial activities can claim that.

As to nuclear proliferation and terrorism, I think you guys have been fed too much terror-propaganda. The terrorist making a nuke in its basement is mostly a fantasy, and the only material with which it would be thinkable is going to be HEU, something that is not present in the civil nuclear industry. Making a plutonium bomb is much harder, and needs serious infrastructure, so the help of a nation, which makes them subject to retaliation. Also, the civil nuclear fuel cycle of a country is not the only way to get nuclear material. I would think that by far the best way would be laser isotope separation, making HEU.

Finally, even a nuclear terrorist attack, serious as it might be, won't stop the world to turn. Terrorists don't want to kill loads of people, they want to induce politicians to take stupid decisions that serve their agenda. The best way to counter terrorists is not to take into account their actions. If one would have done that after 9/11, OBL would be seriously pissed off. If the imaginary threat of nuclear terrorism would induce countries to put their economy, public health, and who knows, maybe Earth's climate in danger by refusing to use the technology that can help them solve their problems, then they have already won!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I completely agree that at this time, neither solar or wind can replace coal or nuclear power. It does appear that very promising solar technologies may change this equation with innovations such as paint-on solar cells, but as is often the case, this is still pie in the sky. As for wind, there just isn't enough of it - unless perhaps we go to flying tethered wind turbines that utilize the airstream near the 30,000 foot level, which might be doable. At that altitude, we find wind speeds of between 100 and 200 mph, which could provide enough energy density to be practical. But again, this is a virgin technology [which, interestingly, was predicted in HG Well's 1933 novel "The Shape of Things to Come".]

As for terrorism, I don't think this problem is exaggerated. In fact, it is predicted by intelligence experts that there is a 50% change of a terrorist nuclear attack on the US within ten years. And beyond that, dirty bombs are the most credible risk. This in itself is not such as concern if we are talking about one or two isolated incidents, but it is also possible that with the mass proliferation of nuclear materials, dirty bombs could be a standard mode of attack.

It isn't the people with a little common sense and grudge that worry me. What worries me are the maniacs. The world has always had maniacs. And even in the US we find people who WANT the world to end as a part of God's plan. In fact, they want to help it along. Interstingly, they support John McCain.

The world has never experienced a dramatic loss of population due to a meteor strike in recorded history, yet our changes of dying from a meteor are greater than the chances of dying in an airline disaster. Why? Because WHEN it happens, millions or billions will die. IMO, nuclear energy poses the same problem. The numbers may not be as large as for a meteoric event, but one event will change the measured risk to benefit ratio dramatically, and future generations will wonder how we could have been so short-sighted.

It is also a fact that, terrorists and security concerns aside, coal power is much cheaper than nuclear power. I will dig up the reference when I am back in my office, but historically, coal cost something like five cents per kw-hr, and nuclear cost something closer to seven or eight cents. And it is my understanding this cost does not include decomissioning, which is tremendously expensive. So before we even consider security, we have room to work to make coal cleaner. In fact, by using algae as a CO2 scrubber, in part we can fix two problems at once.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

But we agree on the most important point: Electric power cannot presently solve the oil problem.

 

[Dale]

I think I disagree.

But first, how about defining some terms. What is "the oil problem"? IMO, it is that the transportation sector relies almost entirely on petroleum. In that sense it is a question of diversification.

Nuclear power would be an important part of that diversification. We should be able to choose between nuclear, coal, wind, hydroelectric, biofuels, and petroleum for a significant portion of our transportation needs. That will prevent fluctuations in the price of a single commodity from impacting the overall economy so dramatically.

 

[Chi Meson]

I think we should stop using terms such as "replacement." What we ought to be moving toward is an increase in Nuclear production to take it from 10% to 30% of the grid demand (I'm using extremely rounded figures). Wind and solar (solar furnace and photovoltaic) should go from "trace amounts" to at least 20% in the near future and expand from there. Hydroelectric provides 20%. That leaves 30% to be provided by coal and NG.

On top of that, we should expect a reduction in demand from this grid as people move toward point-of-use energy generators (rooftop collectors, PVs, small wind turbines, small hydro-generators) where possible. These generators, when inter-tied with the grid need no batteries. Energy is pushed into the grid when not needed at the source point (your meter runs backwards), then energy is taken from the grid when the sun is out.

Fluctuation of demand and supply through daily and seasonal cycles is easily predicted and adaptable. Vast storage units will not be necessary.

The price of all fossil fuels is still to cheap to force this vision to come true. But give it a week or two.

 

[vanesch]

I completely agree that at this time, neither solar or wind can replace coal or nuclear power. It does appear that very promising solar technologies may change this equation with innovations such as paint-on solar cells, but as is often the case, this is still pie in the sky. As for wind, there just isn't enough of it - unless perhaps we go to flying tethered wind turbines that utilize the airstream near the 30,000 foot level, which might be doable. At that altitude, we find wind speeds of between 100 and 200 mph, which could provide enough energy density to be practical. But again, this is a virgin technology [which, interestingly, was predicted in HG Well's 1933 novel "The Shape of Things to Come".]

Ok, we're trying to solve real world problems, so we should consider working technologies: technologies that have demonstrated their technical and economical viability on large scale. It is IMO erroneous to include in a real-world planning any future research and development. When the results are there, we can talk about it. All the rest is "unobtainium" to me.

The fundamental problem with wind and with solar is electricity storage. On top of that come problems like price, size of the installation and all that. But these can be eventually taken into the balance. Electricity storage can't. If it isn't there, your installation doesn't work. Period.

As for terrorism, I don't think this problem is exaggerated. In fact, it is predicted by intelligence experts that there is a 50% change of a terrorist nuclear attack on the US within ten years.

When did they state that ? 7 years ago ? It depends of course what you call "a nuclear terrorist attack". In fact, it already took place. The victim was a single person, he got a polonium injection. It happened in the UK. With some rhetoric, we can call it a nuclear terrorist attack. There. But then, it doesn't represent anything serious. To me, a nuclear terrorist attack is the detonation of a nuclear weapon, period.

And beyond that, dirty bombs are the most credible risk. This in itself is not such as concern if we are talking about one or two isolated incidents, but it is also possible that with the mass proliferation of nuclear materials, dirty bombs could be a standard mode of attack.

Well, by the time it becomes a standard mode of attack, we can think of how to tackle the problem. In fact, it is true that a dirty bomb is the ideal terrorist weapon: it doesn't do much harm, and it scares the hell out of the targeted nation. But a dirty bomb, you can make it with any industrial or medical source of radiation. It is much easier to obtain and much easier to handle than, say, nuclear waste. So I think that if there is to be a lot of dirty bombs, the main culprit is going to be all those Cobalt sources in industry and in the medical world. It is not going to be nuclear power.

It isn't the people with a little common sense and grudge that worry me. What worries me are the maniacs. The world has always had maniacs. And even in the US we find people who WANT the world to end as a part of God's plan. In fact, they want to help it along. Interstingly, they support John McCain.

Biological weapons seem to me a much more realistic way to kill off humanity. And that CAN be done in a basement. You just need to put together the perfect virus.

The world has never experienced a dramatic loss of population due to a meteor strike in recorded history, yet our changes of dying from a meteor are greater than the chances of dying in an airline disaster. Why? Because WHEN it happens, millions or billions will die. IMO, nuclear energy poses the same problem. The numbers may not be as large as for a meteoric event, but one event will change the measured risk to benefit ratio dramatically, and future generations will wonder how we could have been so short-sighted.

I think you are off. Let us assume that every century, we have 200 Chernobyl disasters, and 50 Hiroshima-like bomb explosions by terrorists. Admit that I'm being generous here.

Now, although there is some polemic about it, we can safely assume that Chernobyl didn't cause more than 10 000 victims. So 200 Chernobyls mean 2 000 000 people. Hiroshima meant about 100 000 dead. 50 Hiroshimas means 5 000 000 people dead.

So that "terrible disaster" brought to us by nuclear power, but also by terrorism and so on, in - admit it - very generous estimations on my side, will have caused, during ONE CENTURY, 7 million dead.

Now, car traffic alone causes about 1.2 million dead worldwide A YEAR. So that terrible technology, the reason why we can't have it, has killed as many people in one century than car driving does regularly in 6 years. And the nuclear victim numbers are, again, extremely generous. I don't think we will have 200 Chernobyls and 50 Hiroshimas in the 21st century, unless of course we go to war over some oil.

So no matter all propaganda, nuclear technology and even nuclear terrorism isn't that destructive.

It is also a fact that, terrorists and security concerns aside, coal power is much cheaper than nuclear power. I will dig up the reference when I am back in my office, but historically, coal cost something like five cents per kw-hr, and nuclear cost something closer to seven or eight cents. And it is my understanding this cost does not include decomissioning, which is tremendously expensive. So before we even consider security, we have room to work to make coal cleaner. In fact, by using algae as a CO2 scrubber, in part we can fix two problems at once.

I have seen analysis that show that nuclear and coal are on par. I guess it depends on the context. In France, for instance, there is a percentage of the price of nuclear power which is set aside for decommissioning. Then one may argue over whether it is sufficient. Now, tell me, I never understood why one should decommission an old nuclear power plant. Of course one has to remove the core, but why shouldn't we just keep the low-activity material (pressure vessel and so on) within the very strong containment building, which is a much stronger protection than anything that will ever contain that low activity material in a waste dump ? It can't be for the acre of land it uses, can it ? That wouldn't be cost-effective at all. So why is there a need to decommission nuclear power plants ? What's the rational view behind it ? The fear that the "whole country will soon be full of old nuclear power plants" ? That's not reasonable. The US has 104 nuclear power plants. With 400 of them, it could produce ALL of its electricity from nuclear. Assuming a life time of 60 years, that means on average the loss of 7 plant surfaces a year (for the whole US). You can run many millions of years that way. USA land surface: 10 million square km. Land use of a nuclear power plant (of the nuclear building): about 1000 square meters, or about 0.001 square kilometer. So you could fill up the USA with 10 billion nuclear power plants. The USA would be full of power plants after about 1.2 billion years at the rate of 7 plants a year. For the first millennia, that wouldn't be a problem, would it ?
So if it is not a matter of the puny amount of space it takes up, why would one want to destroy an extremely strong containment building, that contains some very low active material, just to cut it to pieces, and put it somewhere else, where it takes up also some place, and is much less confined now ?

Now, some time ago on PF, with mshelep, we did a calculation, and we found out that wind power uses actually orders of magnitude more steel than does nuclear. So I wonder if the decommissioning of wind mills is included in the price of wind energy.

Another argument concerning the price of nuclear power: how come that France sells a lot of electricity to Germany then ? If nuclear electricity were more expensive than coal (of which the Germans have a lot), then they would not buy their electricity in France, right ?

Moreover, the electricity price in Germany and in Italy for an industrial user is around 9 Eurocent per KWhr, while in France this is around 6 Eurocent per KWhr.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/Files/KEMAReport.pdf

 

[vanesch]

I think we should stop using terms such as "replacement." What we ought to be moving toward is an increase in Nuclear production to take it from 10% to 30% of the grid demand (I'm using extremely rounded figures). Wind and solar (solar furnace and photovoltaic) should go from "trace amounts" to at least 20% in the near future and expand from there. Hydroelectric provides 20%. That leaves 30% to be provided by coal and NG.

On top of that, we should expect a reduction in demand from this grid as people move toward point-of-use energy generators (rooftop collectors, PVs, small wind turbines, small hydro-generators) where possible. These generators, when inter-tied with the grid need no batteries. Energy is pushed into the grid when not needed at the source point (your meter runs backwards), then energy is taken from the grid when the sun is out.

Fluctuation of demand and supply through daily and seasonal cycles is easily predicted and adaptable. Vast storage units will not be necessary.

The problem with 20% of wind and solar is that you've strained the buffer capacity of your grid to the extreme. Ask the Danes. It is as if you added 20% of variation to the already existing variation in demand. Wind and solar don't take into account the demand profile of the user.

"Energy is pushed into the grid" (and where does it go ?) by home installations. They put an even bigger and unpredictable burden on the regulation capacity of the grid. A cloud comes over a big town: suddenly all those solar panels, which were generously providing electricity, drop their contribution. At the same time, people get inside, switch on light, TV, cooking...

You've just increased seriously the fluctuations in demand. Moreover, wind is very very variable. You can be a week without wind. So you have to have the full backup capacity somewhere else. Solar doesn't work at night. In winter, it gets dark exactly when there is peak demand, in the early evening. So you also have to have full backup capacity.

In other words, if you don't add storage, you have to have a fully working grid without solar and wind, that can cope with the full load, but moreover, you have to add extra regulation capacity, equal at least to the amount of wind and solar that you have in your grid, as this can turn on and off at any moment. So concerning grid investment, you have to have a better grid and provision WITH than without solar and wind. This is why may experts think that until we have a radical change in technology, 20% is about the reasonable maximum of solar/wind one can have in a grid.

 

[vanesch]

I would like to add that I don't mind other technologies replacing nuclear! I'm not an all-nuclear buff, although I may sound like one. However, one still has to show me a working example of something that works on a large scale. Apart from fossil fuels, the only thing I know, I've seen etc... is nuclear. When I compare both, I prefer nuclear by far.

But if one day, we have demonstrated that solar, wind, algae ... whatever is really working out, can provide 70% of a country with electricity (without the need to limit one's consumption and so on), economically and reliably, with growth potential and without introducing another serious problem, then I'm all for it. Then I think it is time to stop with nuclear too. But show me first.

 

[vociferous]

In terms of energy for the twenty first century, nuclear power is our best option, as I see it. Nuclear fission is the only source of power that can be quickly and readily added to the power grid to replace coal, gas, and oil plants. Unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power emits no pollution nor greenhouse gasses (with the exception of water vapor).

As far as alternative energy production, solar energy is the only one that has any significant potential. Other sources of alternative energy are simply not viable for large scale implementation. Solar power is probably the best source of energy available now, but actually implementing a solar power energy solution is going to take fifty years or more, and require a very expensive and time-consuming investment in infrastructure.

In the meantime, nuclear power can get fossil fuel plants shut down right now. Solar power requires a complete revamp of the national electric grid.

 

[russ_watters]

Nuclear power is often discussed within the context of the oil crisis. It is a misleading and fruitless discussion because we don't have viable electric cars.

For one, we saw this here in the thread about $139 a barrel oil.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=239058

And also in the thread about genetically modified organisms
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=241122

I agree that the electric grid is another issue of concern, but it has little to nothing to do with the price of oil.

Ok, that makes more sense. You weren't very specific in the OP: "The energy problem" is a pretty broad thing. If you were talking only about gas for cars, yes, I agree. Nuclear power can't help much with that energy problem unless there is a vast improvement in battery technology or hydrogen "fuel" technology.

Btw, the first thread there expanded to discuss pretty much everything having to do with "The energy problem" (and you made the first reference to global warming in that thread, which is where nuclear power comes in) - the second makes no mention of nuclear power at all.

 

[vociferous]

I should add that nuclear power can be used to produce hydrogen, which, in some form, is likely to be the fuel which replaces petrol as a source of energy in automobiles.

 

[Dale]

A nuclear power plant even emits less radiation than a coal power plant. (approx .009 mrem/yr vs. .03 mrem/yr)

 

[russ_watters]

Yes, on that point one has to consider whether it is cheaper to produce clean energy from coal...

Whoa, back up a step: first one has to determine if it is possible to produce clean energy from coal. The technology just plain doesn't exist yet.

...or cheaper to make the nuclear industry failsafe; including against the unintended proliferation of nuclear materials, as well as against terrorist attacks and sabotage. Since I don't believe anything can be made failsafe...

So...nothing can be made failsafe, but we should require nuclear power to be? That's a rediculous, illogical, self-contradictory, horrendously biased thing to say.

Cars aren't failsafe, so we shouldn't have cars.

 

[russ_watters]

The world has never experienced a dramatic loss of population due to a meteor strike in recorded history, yet our changes of dying from a meteor are greater than the chances of dying in an airline disaster. Why? Because WHEN it happens, millions or billions will die. IMO, nuclear energy poses the same problem. The numbers may not be as large as for a meteoric event, but one event will change the measured risk to benefit ratio dramatically, and future generations will wonder how we could have been so short-sighted.[emphasis added]

What would this "one event" look like? Near as I can tell, the only way a nuclear accident could kill enough people to register high enough on such a risk calculus to make a real difference is if the meteor that hits the power plant kills most of the people!

There just aren't any scenarios where it is even possible for a nuclear accident to be as bad as you are afraid of.

It is also a fact that, terrorists and security concerns aside, coal power is much cheaper than nuclear power. I will dig up the reference when I am back in my office, but historically, coal cost something like five cents per kw-hr, and nuclear cost something closer to seven or eight cents. And it is my understanding this cost does not include decomissioning, which is tremendously expensive. So before we even consider security, we have room to work to make coal cleaner. In fact, by using algae as a CO2 scrubber, in part we can fix two problems at once.

Yes, coal is cheaper than nuclear. But how much is this nonexistent "clean coal" technology going to cost? You seem to be assuming that it will be cheap. How can you possibly know that?

 

[russ_watters]

I have seen analysis that show that nuclear and coal are on par. I guess it depends on the context. In France, for instance...

It is worth noting that it varies by country. A country, like France, that did it right is likely to have much cheaper nuclear power than a country like the US, that does it wrong. But since Ivan is basing his energy problem analysis on things that don't exist, we can easily say that the political situation in the US can change to make nuclear power cost, say, half of what it does today. Is it really possible for the political situation to change? I think it is more likely that that will happen than it is that "clean coal" will ever happen.

 

[russ_watters]

Another argument concerning the price of nuclear power: how come that France sells a lot of electricity to Germany then ? If nuclear electricity were more expensive than coal (of which the Germans have a lot), then they would not buy their electricity in France, right ?

Moreover, the electricity price in Germany and in Italy for an industrial user is around 9 Eurocent per KWhr, while in France this is around 6 Eurocent per KWhr.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/Files/KEMAReport.pdf

The issues in Germany are a harbinger of the coming economic disaster that radical environmentalism is pushing some countries to. I think it is likely Germany will just drop their rediculous energy policies, but if they don't, they will soon find themselves paying France and Denmark 30 cents a kWh because they are incapable of generating anywhere near enough of their own power. And that problem won't just be Germany's - if France can sell power to Germany for 30 cents, why would they not increase the rates for the French as well? The EU is a double-edged sword: if one nation drives themselves into the ground, it can take the rest of the EU with them.

 

[Dale]

Nor do we have the infrastructure to support a nation of electric cars and trucks.

We can certainly fill little nitches in the transportation needs of the average person with electric vehicles, but in the grand scheme of things, the only option to oil is to use alternative fuels.

While your point here is correct, we also don't have the infrastructure to support alternative fuels. Any change will imply some change to our vehicle fleet as well as our infrastructure. So it is a little silly to use that as an objection when it applies to all options (except petroleum).

A further point is that even "filling little nitches" can have dramatic benefits to the overall economy. For example, let's say that 5% of our transportation energy needs can be met by either electricity or petroleum or biofuels (e.g. with a fleet of flex-fuel plug-in hybrids). Then all three commodities are competing for the same market, if the price of oil goes up then the demand can drop instantly by 5% without any change in transportation usage. This marginal change in demand would have a huge impact on oil prices which currently are very inelastic.

 

[dlgoff]

This is kind of off topic. But since storage has been mentioned I though you might be interested in this method of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity" .

 

[vanesch]

The issues in Germany are a harbinger of the coming economic disaster that radical environmentalism is pushing some countries to. I think it is likely Germany will just drop their rediculous energy policies, but if they don't, they will soon find themselves paying France and Denmark 30 cents a kWh because they are incapable of generating anywhere near enough of their own power. And that problem won't just be Germany's - if France can sell power to Germany for 30 cents, why would they not increase the rates for the French as well? The EU is a double-edged sword: if one nation drives themselves into the ground, it can take the rest of the EU with them.

You've never seen the French on strike, have you ?
No, I think that if this goes on, France will be western Europe's provider for electricity, unless (and that's not impossible) France get caught too by ecologitis. As of now, there's no danger, Sarkozy is promoting nuclear everywhere, but then the guy is doing also several stupid things, so the day that the left takes over in France, they'll need the votes of the Greens, exactly as did the German left (nuclear phase out) and the Belgian left (nuclear phase out) and then all silliness can happen. It's not the left itself, it is the left that needs that 5 or 10% of green votes and is willing to give into that to be in power.

I think the real danger is technical. If the Germans don't take care of their grid, they will face more and more blackouts, which tend to propagate all over Europe.

 

[vanesch]

This is kind of off topic. But since storage has been mentioned I though you might be interested in this method of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity" .

Yes, yes, it is very good. There have already been discussions about that (too lazy to look up the threads). Pumping stations cost about $2,- per installed Watt, for about 6 hours of autonomy. So as buffer it is ok, but if you take it as a main source, you're in trouble, when you need to replace a wind farm for a week, or solar panels in winter. You have then a significant increase in price per watt. Also, you need the right geography. In Holland for instance, it's not easy to find the slope...

 

[vanesch]

While your point here is correct, we also don't have the infrastructure to support alternative fuels. Any change will imply some change to our vehicle fleet as well as our infrastructure. So it is a little silly to use that as an objection when it applies to all options (except petroleum).

A further point is that even "filling little nitches" can have dramatic benefits to the overall economy. For example, let's say that 5% of our transportation energy needs can be met by either electricity or petroleum or biofuels (e.g. with a fleet of flex-fuel plug-in hybrids). Then all three commodities are competing for the same market, if the price of oil goes up then the demand can drop instantly by 5% without any change in transportation usage. This marginal change in demand would have a huge impact on oil prices which currently are very inelastic.

This is a very good point I never thought about. One suffers (as in 1973) from the total inelasticity of oil consumption, which results in an almost monopoly position of the oil producers.

 

[Chi Meson]

The problem with 20% of wind and solar is that you've strained the buffer capacity of your grid to the extreme. Ask the Danes. It is as if you added 20% of variation to the already existing variation in demand. Wind and solar don't take into account the demand profile of the user.

"Energy is pushed into the grid" (and where does it go ?) by home installations. They put an even bigger and unpredictable burden on the regulation capacity of the grid. A cloud comes over a big town: suddenly all those solar panels, which were generously providing electricity, drop their contribution. At the same time, people get inside, switch on light, TV, cooking...

You've just increased seriously the fluctuations in demand. Moreover, wind is very very variable. You can be a week without wind. So you have to have the full backup capacity somewhere else. Solar doesn't work at night. In winter, it gets dark exactly when there is peak demand, in the early evening. So you also have to have full backup capacity.

In other words, if you don't add storage, you have to have a fully working grid without solar and wind, that can cope with the full load, but moreover, you have to add extra regulation capacity, equal at least to the amount of wind and solar that you have in your grid, as this can turn on and off at any moment. So concerning grid investment, you have to have a better grid and provision WITH than without solar and wind. This is why may experts think that until we have a radical change in technology, 20% is about the reasonable maximum of solar/wind one can have in a grid.

Not totally disagreeing here, but the highest peak demands are exactly when the PVs are cranking the most: sunny hot summer days, with ACs in office buildings working to capacity. I'd never recommend wind to any homeowner who doesn't live in a dependably windy location (I live on the Connecticut coast; our neighborhood is called "Windy Hill"; a week without wind is unheard of) and as of now small wind turbines are not as good an investment as PVs. So anyone with a turbine in a location that is subject to a lull is a loon.

If local PVs were installed in 100s of thousands of homes this year, the grid would have a hard time dealing with the fluctuations, but I'm thinking of the progress over decades. As the input of local PVs increases, the fluctuations will become more predictable, and the buffers and adjustments in output should become more flexible.

Lastly, I thought 30% nuclear generation was being optimistic. I'd love for it to be 50% or more. Based on current consumption, would anyone expect a greater nuclear contribution? (think realistically, 20 years from now).

Edit: what's the latest on coal gassification, and coal-based synthetic fuel? Is the net outcome of this process any cleaner than simply burning the coal?

 

[vociferous]

If I were in charge of energy policy, it would be something like this:

Step 1) Immediately start building nuclear power plants to replace fossil fuel plants, with coal plants being shut down first, oil second, and gas third. As nuclear plants are brought online, fossil fuel plants will be shut down.

Step 2) Immediately begin encouraging the placement of photovoltaic cells on every building in the United States. Begin upgrading the national power grid to accommodate solar electricity generation. Begin building energy storage facilities to store solar power for nighttime and peak usage. Shut down nuclear plants as more solar capacity is constructed.

Step 3) Begin constructing hydrogen manufacturing facilities and create a network of electrical power/hydrogen delivery. The network will use pipes to deliver hydrogen across the nation for future automobiles and cool the major power grid backbone lines into superconductors.

Step 4) Solar and alternative energy will provide for our electrical needs until and if fusion becomes available.

 

[vanesch]

Not totally disagreeing here, but the highest peak demands are exactly when the PVs are cranking the most: sunny hot summer days, with ACs in office buildings working to capacity.

You are right that that is a summer day profile. Look at
http://www.rte-france.com/htm/fr/vie/telecharge/prevconsoelec.pdf

which gives some profiles of electricity consumption in France (sorry, it is the market I know best). On the first plot, p.1 you find the annual smoothed consumption profile: lowest in summer, highest in winter (we tend to have much less AC than in the US: matter of habit, living standard, and climate, I guess). Winter has about double consumption than summer.

Second plot on p1: profile for a few consecutive days in summer: indeed a peak around noon. But we are now at about 52 GW.

First plot on p2: a winter day: peak at 19 hr, at 82 GW. That's in winter, and after sun set, when solar doesn't work, and we are at the highest grid consumption over the year (peak in winter).

I'd never recommend wind to any homeowner who doesn't live in a dependably windy location (I live on the Connecticut coast; our neighborhood is called "Windy Hill"; a week without wind is unheard of) and as of now small wind turbines are not as good an investment as PVs. So anyone with a turbine in a location that is subject to a lull is a loon.

I really think that for the moment, PV on a large scale is excessively expensive. Hell, we are an order of magnitude above nuclear/coal! Wind is cheaper in that respect, although it is still a factor of 2 or 3 more expensive than coal.

If local PVs were installed in 100s of thousands of homes this year, the grid would have a hard time dealing with the fluctuations, but I'm thinking of the progress over decades. As the input of local PVs increases, the fluctuations will become more predictable, and the buffers and adjustments in output should become more flexible.

Yes, but you remain with the principal problem: highest consumption in winter, when it is dark. At least in France (and I think it is a typical consumption profile in Europe, which must even be worse in less sunny places like Northern Germany). I suppose that if you live in a warm place, where the main consumption is AC, then there is of course a strong correlation between consumption and solar irradiation, so there it might be a good idea.

Lastly, I thought 30% nuclear generation was being optimistic. I'd love for it to be 50% or more. Based on current consumption, would anyone expect a greater nuclear contribution? (think realistically, 20 years from now).

France went from about 1% nuclear to over 70% nuclear in 20 years, between 1977 and 1997. That shows that it is technologically, industrially and economically possible.
Belgium went from 0% to 55% in 11 years. (now these fools - I can say that, I'm Belgian - want to phase out by 2015, but I hope they will come to reason before they do damage).

If we want to make plans for 30 years ahead, I think that is risky. Technology might have changed. It is possible that solar is extremely competitive by then. That would be great. Maybe electricity storage will have a solution then. But one shouldn't wait 30 years for the miracle solution and do nothing right now. I agree with you that the best thing to do is to switch as much as possible from coal to nuclear right now. The technology exists and is operational. If 30 years from now, things are different, we can do different things then. Most nuclear power plants will then be halfway through their life anyway, and one should start thinking of their replacement, with whatever is the best technology at that point. Maybe in the mean time we've found out that AGW is not an issue. We can then use fossil fuels again. Maybe we find out that it IS an issue, and then we will be happy to have done something about it.

My idea is that the local investment that DOES really make sense, is not too expensive and is very efficient, is thermal solar, to make hot water. It is totally ridiculous that houses have an AC, and heat water in summer using electricity.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ok, we're trying to solve real world problems, so we should consider working technologies: technologies that have demonstrated their technical and economical viability on large scale. It is IMO erroneous to include in a real-world planning any future research and development. When the results are there, we can talk about it. All the rest is "unobtainium" to me.

The fact is, as far as I could tell, until the algae option came along, there was no viable option to oil.

When did they state that ? 7 years ago ? It depends of course what you call "a nuclear terrorist attack". In fact, it already took place. The victim was a single person, he got a polonium injection. It happened in the UK. With some rhetoric, we can call it a nuclear terrorist attack. There. But then, it doesn't represent anything serious. To me, a nuclear terrorist attack is the detonation of a nuclear weapon, period.

We are talking about a nuclear detonation.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=208250

Well, by the time it becomes a standard mode of attack, we can think of how to tackle the problem.

In the US, we euphemistically refer to this as closing the barn door after the horse got out.

In fact, it is true that a dirty bomb is the ideal terrorist weapon: it doesn't do much harm, and it scares the hell out of the targeted nation. But a dirty bomb, you can make it with any industrial or medical source of radiation. It is much easier to obtain and much easier to handle than, say, nuclear waste. So I think that if there is to be a lot of dirty bombs, the main culprit is going to be all those Cobalt sources in industry and in the medical world. It is not going to be nuclear power.

However, wouldn't plutonium be much more effective, and wouldn't terrorists know this?

Biological weapons seem to me a much more realistic way to kill off humanity. And that CAN be done in a basement. You just need to put together the perfect virus.

Given access to Pu or U, isn't it far easier to make an effective dirty bomb, than it is to engineer the perfect virus? From what I understand, it is easy to play games with viruses, but to make a highly effective virus for biological warfare is far more difficult.

I think you are off. Let us assume that every century, we have 200 Chernobyl disasters, and 50 Hiroshima-like bomb explosions by terrorists. Admit that I'm being generous here.

Now, although there is some polemic about it, we can safely assume that Chernobyl didn't cause more than 10 000 victims. So 200 Chernobyls mean 2 000 000 people. Hiroshima meant about 100 000 dead. 50 Hiroshimas means 5 000 000 people dead.

So that "terrible disaster" brought to us by nuclear power, but also by terrorism and so on, in - admit it - very generous estimations on my side, will have caused, during ONE CENTURY, 7 million dead.

Now, car traffic alone causes about 1.2 million dead worldwide A YEAR. So that terrible technology, the reason why we can't have it, has killed as many people in one century than car driving does regularly in 6 years. And the nuclear victim numbers are, again, extremely generous. I don't think we will have 200 Chernobyls and 50 Hiroshimas in the 21st century, unless of course we go to war over some oil.

So no matter all propaganda, nuclear technology and even nuclear terrorism isn't that destructive.



I have seen analysis that show that nuclear and coal are on par. I guess it depends on the context. In France, for instance, there is a percentage of the price of nuclear power which is set aside for decommissioning. Then one may argue over whether it is sufficient. Now, tell me, I never understood why one should decommission an old nuclear power plant. Of course one has to remove the core, but why shouldn't we just keep the low-activity material (pressure vessel and so on) within the very strong containment building, which is a much stronger protection than anything that will ever contain that low activity material in a waste dump ? It can't be for the acre of land it uses, can it ? That wouldn't be cost-effective at all. So why is there a need to decommission nuclear power plants ? What's the rational view behind it ? The fear that the "whole country will soon be full of old nuclear power plants" ? That's not reasonable. The US has 104 nuclear power plants. With 400 of them, it could produce ALL of its electricity from nuclear. Assuming a life time of 60 years, that means on average the loss of 7 plant surfaces a year (for the whole US). You can run many millions of years that way. USA land surface: 10 million square km. Land use of a nuclear power plant (of the nuclear building): about 1000 square meters, or about 0.001 square kilometer. So you could fill up the USA with 10 billion nuclear power plants. The USA would be full of power plants after about 1.2 billion years at the rate of 7 plants a year. For the first millennia, that wouldn't be a problem, would it ?
So if it is not a matter of the puny amount of space it takes up, why would one want to destroy an extremely strong containment building, that contains some very low active material, just to cut it to pieces, and put it somewhere else, where it takes up also some place, and is much less confined now ?

Now, some time ago on PF, with mshelep, we did a calculation, and we found out that wind power uses actually orders of magnitude more steel than does nuclear. So I wonder if the decommissioning of wind mills is included in the price of wind energy.

Another argument concerning the price of nuclear power: how come that France sells a lot of electricity to Germany then ? If nuclear electricity were more expensive than coal (of which the Germans have a lot), then they would not buy their electricity in France, right ?

Moreover, the electricity price in Germany and in Italy for an industrial user is around 9 Eurocent per KWhr, while in France this is around 6 Eurocent per KWhr.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/Files/KEMAReport.pdf

You make some good points and I will stew on this a bit . To me, risk to benefit analysis is the proper way to look at this. What is not clear to me is the scope of the risk. What about the loss of economic centers; the loss of commerce; the loss of strategic ports, cancer risks, birth defects... when a million people die in a million different places, speaking purely analytically about it, the effect on the general populous is insignificant, however I don't see this as being the case if we lose an entire city or cities, in one or a few catostrophic events. I don't think we can directly compare the two situations. But as I said, I need to think about that one to consider the distinctions.

As for the cost of power, this is the reference that I used. The link doesn't seem to be working right now but hopefully it will be.
http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~blc/book/chapter10.html

These are the numbers that I had cited from the report.

NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: Average lifetime Cost
Median [average] experience: 7.7 cents per KW-Hr
Best [theoretical] experience: 4.0 cents per KW-Hr

COAL POWER PLANTS:
[“Clean” upgrades not considered] 4.8 cents per KW-Hr

 

[Ivan Seeking]

What would this "one event" look like? Near as I can tell, the only way a nuclear accident could kill enough people to register high enough on such a risk calculus to make a real difference is if the meteor that hits the power plant kills most of the people!

There just aren't any scenarios where it is even possible for a nuclear accident to be as bad as you are afraid of.

You'll understand if I don't take your word for it.

Yes, coal is cheaper than nuclear. But how much is this nonexistent "clean coal" technology going to cost? You seem to be assuming that it will be cheap. How can you possibly know that?

Algae can be used to filter the flue gases and then to produce fuel.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

As for the argument of potential risk, this comes to mind: If you want to consider the social, ecomomic, and political consequences of a nuclear terrorist attack, or nuclear sabotage, consider what a dozen guys with box knives managed to accomplish, on 911.

Now, what order of magnitude shall we apply in order to anticipate the effects of a catastrophic nuclear event?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Here is what I believe; as quoted in the thread linked about nuclear detonation.

When six [don't know why I said six here] guys with box cutters flew some planes into buildings, we started two wars; in one case we attacked the wrong country but any country would do; we trashed the Constitution and the Geneva Conventions; we implemented the use of torture and secret prisons; we allowed spying on US citizens without legal oversight; we threatened [tried] to use nuclear weapons for "conventional warfare", and we re-elected the people who did all of this.

==> Set off a nuke in a US city and the ME is a glass parking lot.