Paul, the oracular, miraculous octopus

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The discussion centers around Paul the octopus, renowned for accurately predicting the outcomes of World Cup soccer matches, including Germany's defeat to Spain in the semi-finals and Spain's eventual victory in the final. While many fans expressed frustration over his predictions, particularly in Germany, others defended the octopus's ability, suggesting that his success rate was comparable to random chance. The conversation also touches on the nature of predictions in sports and the skepticism surrounding them, with some participants questioning the significance of Paul's achievements. Additionally, the topic shifts to the broader implications of animal predictions, with references to other creatures like a Singapore parrot. The thread concludes with the news of Paul's death, prompting a mix of sadness and humor among participants, as they reflect on his legacy and the absurdity of attributing prophetic abilities to an octopus.
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The World Championship in Soccer is drawing to a close (finally!), and the one commentator that deserves most praise for his pre-match analyses is..an octopus named Paul.

Living in the German town Oberhausen, he correctly predicted all cup results for Germany, by picking the right bucket to eat from.

He drew the wrath of Germany upon himself for predicting their defeat against Spain in the semi-finals, but Paul, of course, was right in his predictions.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5764787,00.html
 
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His selection has been met with groans of discomfort from German football fans.
Honestly, you have to be a record breaking idiot to get upset over which team an octopus "chooses to win"?
 
leroyjenkens said:
Honestly, you have to be a record breaking idiot to get upset over which team an octopus "chooses to win"?

Well, these are SPORTS fans we're talking about, leroy...
 
It's not an oracular octupus, it's a CURSED OCTUPUS!
 
arildno said:
Well, these are SPORTS fans we're talking about, leroy...

Good point, but I can't be too smart putting a question mark at the end of a statement.
 
I hope those people get equally upset about the 30 out of a million people who by chance alone would be equally likely to accurately predict the result of the final matches. In fact, I would bet there are at least hundreds of football fans world wide who has already accurately predicted the match results so I hope they now have the decency too stand up to their deed so the losers will have someone to rightfully blame. We should tolerate no more of this dangerous alteration of future events by these dangerous predictions. Oh, wait, does this work on the stock market too?
 
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And the coolness of Paul the octopus predicting the match went way down after you two posted. Cant you just accept something for being cool, without going "lol but actually" for one time, just one time?
 
I wonder if there is a trick to this. For example, he could be somehow induced from to eat from the box of the team that was already favored by odds setters. I recall reading somewhere that for the last world cup series his prediction success rate was about 80 percent. How does that compare with just picking the favorite every time?
 
Galteeth said:
I wonder if there is a trick to this. For example, he could be somehow induced from to eat from the box of the team that was already favored by odds setters. I recall reading somewhere that for the last world cup series his prediction success rate was about 80 percent. How does that compare with just picking the favorite every time?
Please don't be so prosaic, Galteeth, octopi are very intelligent.
They can even open doors by turning the knob the proper way, something I have some trouble doing on occasion.
 
  • #10
Reminds me of the cat who "predicted" the deaths of elderly patients at a nursing home. Just don't let Puss lie on your bed!
 
  • #11
Loren Booda said:
Reminds me of the cat who "predicted" the deaths of elderly patients at a nursing home. Just don't let Puss lie on your bed!
:smile:
 
  • #12
I wonder why they thought to call an oracular, miraculous octopus Paul.
 
  • #14
Really cute article on Paul.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100709/ap_on_fe_st/eu_germany_octopus_oracle_world_cup
 
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  • #15
  • #16
Paul did it again!

Once again, Paul ate the right mussel, Germany DID win the bronze final.

Clearly Paul is a charitable octopus, ignoring enraged Germans' desire to fry him after correctly predicting Spain's victory in the semi-finals. :smile:
 
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  • #17
Andre said:
Does Paul know that he could cash a mil yun bucks?
Paul is a fastidious octopus. One, or possibly two mussels a day is more than ehough for him.
 
  • #18
Andre said:
Does Paul know that he could cash a mil yun bucks?

1,000,000 clams would be too much for a whale.
 
  • #19
Loren Booda said:
1,000,000 clams would be too much for a whale.
Yes,, I would agree with you, Loren.

However, I must point out to you that 100 "top neck" clams cost only 34$, so that we are speaking of 3 million clams for the prize money, rather than just 1 million.
Unless we get additional discounts per million; this price list doesn't say anything about that:
http://www.crabs.net/store/price_list.htm
 
  • #20
Just before the denoument, some animal was right. Maybe Mani
 
  • #21
Andre said:
Just before the denoument, some animal was right. Maybe Mani
Paul's beak is bigger than Mani's.
 
  • #22
How does this octopus do it!
 
  • #23
I wonder if he can pick stocks or winning lottery numbers?
 
  • #24
Evo said:
I wonder if he can pick stocks or winning lottery numbers?

He certainly can pick seafood.
 
  • #25
And Paul strikes again!

Just as Paul predicted, Spain won the World Cup! :smile:
 
  • #26
So Paul correctly predicted the outcomes of 8 matches in a row. Does it have something to do with his 8 arms? :wink:
 
  • #27
This is not an octopus. This is f*ckin' Cthulhu!
 
  • #28
Apparently Paul has retired from the psychic profession

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/id/5373013/ce/us/paul-octopus-retires-world-cup-predictions-going-8-8?cc=5901&ver=us
 
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  • #29
Lot of joking around here. Don't you think that that was pretty serious achievement from the octopus? A scientist should first try to find the truth, and joke about the phenomenon later.

Galteeth said:
I wonder if there is a trick to this. For example, he could be somehow induced from to eat from the box of the team that was already favored by odds setters. I recall reading somewhere that for the last world cup series his prediction success rate was about 80 percent. How does that compare with just picking the favorite every time?

This is the only thing I could think of. But how reliable predictions could even the experts give to the game results?
 
  • #30
  • #31


arildno said:
The Iranian President says that Paul is a symbol of everything that is wrong in the world, a piece of Western propaganda and superstition.

In contrast to himself and the leadership of Iran, "that aspire...to human perfection, basing themselves in the love of all sacred values,"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-attacks-Octopus-Paul.html

Lol, that's great!

Reminds me of when a Chinese newspaper took a story in http://www.theonion.com/" to be an actual story:

Beijing's most popular newspaper has unwittingly republished a bogus story about U.S. Congress threats to skip town for Memphis or Charlotte unless Washington builds them a new Capitol building with a retractable dome.

The source? America's celebrated spoof tabloid, the Onion.

http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/news/2002/06/53048
 
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  • #32
jostpuur said:
Lot of joking around here. Don't you think that that was pretty serious achievement from the octopus? A scientist should first try to find the truth, and joke about the phenomenon later.

No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?
 
  • #33
Office_Shredder said:
No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?

Why do you bash Paul's achievements like this?

What has he ever done to you?
 
  • #34
arildno said:
Why do you bash Paul's achievements like this?

What has he ever done to you?

I paid him $20,000 to pick Germany in the Spain-Germany game. This isn't because I wanted Germany to win; he already told me that Spain was going to win the game. I just wanted the betting to be skewed so I could make more money off my Spain bet.

Little dip cost me a hundred grand
 
  • #35
Your are all guilty of pseudo skepticism!

Office_Shredder said:
No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?

The quality of miracle would depend on the way you achieve this coin flipping feat. I can tell at least two different ways to try to achieve it.

The way A: Take video camera. Record it when you flip a coin few thousand times. Somewhere in the sequence of flips there is going to be eight successive heads. Then take some editing software, cut the eight relevant flips out of the long video. In the end you have evidence that you flipped eight coins and they all gave heads.

The way B: Go to some (dumb) talent show. Tell the judges that you have capability to flip eight successive heads with a coin. Then start flipping, and keep hoping. In the end you should have amazed judges and audience applauding your abilities.

The biggest difference between the ways A and B is that the way A works, and the way B doesn't. If you try the way B, the hope will fail you just like it failed this guy too:

Isn't it clear, that the feat of Paul is closer to the way B than to the way A?
 
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  • #36
Only if the octopus was the only thing predicting world cup events. See, for example, that Singapore parrot. Most of them aren't famous because they don't get all their hits correct.

If you can document all the predictions of animals/random processes that could have become famous if they went 8/8 in the world and demonstrate that there aren't enough of them to allow for one to go 100%, then you're on to something.

And it's not just this world cup; there have surely been random processes picking sporting events for years, eventually one of them is bound to be very accurate
 
  • #37
Office_Shredder said:
Only if the octopus was the only thing predicting world cup events. See, for example, that Singapore parrot. Most of them aren't famous because they don't get all their hits correct.

If you can document all the predictions of animals/random processes that could have become famous if they went 8/8 in the world and demonstrate that there aren't enough of them to allow for one to go 100%, then you're on to something.

And it's not just this world cup; there have surely been random processes picking sporting events for years, eventually one of them is bound to be very accurate
You won't get your money back, Paul has eaten them. :smile:
 
  • #38
arildno said:
You won't get your money back, Paul has eaten them. :smile:

I sent the money to him in a box with the English flag painted on it. I think it's safe
 
  • #39
Office_Shredder said:
I sent the money to him in a box with the English flag painted on it. I think it's safe
I would think he looks upon such a box as the perfect portable toilet.

But, you're right, they'll be sort of safe in there..
 
  • #41
  • #42
They murdered him before he made a mistake, in order to preserve his mystic status.
 
  • #44
Poor Paul, he never saw it coming.
 
  • #45
I am suspicious, however. We were told Paul was dead once before. Of course, back then we were told he was he was a Walrus.
 
  • #46
dinner time!
 
  • #47
rootX said:
dinner time!
:eek:
 

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