Predictions for the Nobel Prize in Physics 2025

[pines-demon]

Similar to the 2024 thread, here I start the 2025 thread. As always it is getting increasingly difficult to predict, so I will make a list based on other article predictions. You can also leave your prediction here.

Here are the predictions of 2024 that did not make it:

• Peter Shor, David Deutsch and all the rest of the quantum computing community (various sources)
• Pablo Jarrillo Herrero, Allan McDonald and Rafi Bistritzer for magic angle in twisted graphene (various sources)
• Christoph Gerber for atomic force microscope (Clarivate)
• Roberto Car and Michele Parinello for Car–Parinello molecular dynamics (Clarivate chemistry)
• Yakir Aharonov and Michael Berry for geometrical phases (Hossenfelder)
• Andrei Linde, Viatcheslav Mukhanov and Alan Guth for the CMB power spectrum and cosmic inflation (Hossenfelder)
• Lene Hau for slow light (Physics World)
• John Pendry and Federico Capasso for metamaterials and nanophotonic devices (Physics World)
• Martin Rees for contribution to observational cosmology (Wolf Prize 2024)

Another good estimate for 2025 is the Wolf Prize 2025:

• James P. Eisenstein, Mordehai Heiblum, Jainendra K. Jain for 2D correlated electron systems.

 

[pines-demon]

I started the topic, because the first predictions are in. Domenico Fuoco from Polytechnique Montréal wrote a paper "How To Predict The Winners Of The Nobel Prize For 2025" doi:10.2139/ssrn.5254426 . Here is his prediction:

• John Martinis and Jian Wei Pan (or even IBM) for advances in quantum computing

 

[WWGD]

I started the topic, because the first predictions are in. Domenico Fuoco from Polytechnique Montréal wrote a paper "How To Predict The Winners Of The Nobel Prize For 2025" doi:10.2139/ssrn.5254426 . Here is his prediction:

• John Martinis and Jian Wei Pan (or even IBM) for advances in quantum computing

Anything to see with using Topological qubits and using braids to emcode information? ( I only know little beyond the buzzwords).

 

[pines-demon]

Anything to see with using Topological qubits and using braids to emcode information? ( I only know little beyond the buzzwords).

Topological qubits do not exist yet, Microsoft released a fake topological qubit in 2025, but they are not sure if it is topological and it is probably not even a qubit. However that said, Alexei Kitaev known for topological algorithms could win a Nobel Prize for all his other contributions to quantum computing.

 

[Golden hunter]

Similar to the 2024 thread, here I start the 2025 thread. As always it is getting increasingly difficult to predict, so I will make a list based on other article predictions. You can also leave your prediction here.

Here are the predictions of 2024 that did not make it:

• Peter Shor, David Deutsch and all the rest of the quantum computing community (various sources)
• Pablo Jarrillo Herrero, Allan McDonald and Rafi Bistritzer for magic angle in twisted graphene (various sources)
• Christoph Gerber for atomic force microscope (Clarivate)
• Roberto Car and Michele Parinello for Car–Parinello molecular dynamics (Clarivate chemistry)
• Yakir Aharonov and Michael Berry for geometrical phases (Hossenfelder)
• Andrei Linde, Viatcheslav Mukhanov and Alan Guth for the CMB power spectrum and cosmic inflation (Hossenfelder)
• Lene Hau for slow light (Physics World)
• John Pendry and Federico Capasso for metamaterials and nanophotonic devices (Physics World)
• Martin Rees for contribution to observational cosmology (Wolf Prize 2024)

Another good estimate for 2025 is the Wolf Prize 2025:

• James P. Eisenstein, Mordehai Heiblum, Jainendra K. Jain for 2D correlated electron systems.

If it is Lene Hau (slow & stopped light) she probably won't be alone - maybe with the rainbow-trapping guys (Tsakmakidis / Hess) ?? who knowns ... that would be a good and surprising choice.

 

[pines-demon]

If it is Lene Hau (slow & stopped light) she probably won't be alone - maybe with the rainbow-trapping guys (Tsakmakidis / Hess) ?? who knowns ... that would be a good and surprising choice.

She has often been nominated for the Nobel with Stephen E. Harris (Clarivate 2012).

 

[Golden hunter]

She has often been nominated for the Nobel with Stephen E. Harris (Clarivate 2012).

Hau and Harris revolved mainly around electromagnetically induced transparency and slow / stopped light (in ultracold gases) ... topological slow light, rainbow trapping, and solid-state slow light (at ambient conditions) sound more intriguing to me, and seem to have a variety of tangible applications (not only in optics but beyond) which as far as I know is an important consideration for these prizes.

 

[Haborix]

OP seems to assume it will be awarded for work related to Physics. Recent practice shows that isn't a safe assumption

 

[pines-demon]

OP seems to assume it will be awarded for work related to Physics. Recent practice shows that isn't a safe assumption

Maybe this year an economist will win the physics prize:

(Jokes aside Hopfield deserved the prize, the connection of his work with spin glasses was just not given credit properly by the Nobel Foundation)

 

[pines-demon]

Clarivate Citations are scheduled for the 25 September, tune in at that time. Meanwhile you can check Veritasium's video on the biography of Alfred Nobel:

 

[pines-demon]

2025 Clarivate Citations Laureates for Physics (list of tentative candidates for the Nobel Prize in Physics) are in:

• Ingrid Daubechies, Stéphane Mallat and Yves Meyer, "for advancing wavelet theory, a revolution in mathematics and physics with practical applications including image processing"
• David DiVicenzo and Daniel Loss "for proposing the Loss-DiVincenzo model for quantum computing, using electron spins in quantum dots as qubits"
• Ewine van Dishoeck "for pioneering contributions to astrochemistry revealing interstellar molecular clouds and their role in star and planet formation".

Commentary:

DiVincenzo and Daniel Loss enter the very large list of quantum computing stuff that still does not get a prize. Wavelet theory is interesting as Stéphane Mallat just won a CNRS Gold Medal and Debauchies a Wolf Prize in Math, but it would be a prize for 3 mathematicians which is unlikely. I don't know what are the specific discoveries of Van Dishoeck, does anybody here know?

For the rest of categories check https://clarivate.com/citation-laureates/