Probability distributions binomial or hypergeometric

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on determining whether to use the hypergeometric distribution or the binomial distribution for calculating the probability of selecting at least 3 women from a committee of 16 persons chosen from a group of 400 individuals (240 women and 160 men). The consensus is that the hypergeometric distribution is appropriate due to the dependency of selections, as each pick alters the probabilities for subsequent selections. However, it is noted that for large populations relative to the sample size, the binomial approximation may yield similar results, particularly when the desired outcome is not extreme.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of hypergeometric distribution
  • Familiarity with binomial distribution
  • Basic probability theory
  • Statistical sampling techniques
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the properties and applications of the hypergeometric distribution
  • Learn how to calculate probabilities using the binomial distribution
  • Explore the Central Limit Theorem and its implications for large sample sizes
  • Investigate statistical software tools for performing probability calculations, such as R or Python's SciPy library
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for statisticians, data analysts, and students studying probability theory, particularly those interested in sampling methods and distribution applications in real-world scenarios.

xdrgnh
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Homework Statement


A committee of 16 persons is selected randomly from a group of 400 people, of whom are 240 are women and 160 are men. Approximate the probability that the committe contains at least 3 women.



I just want to know if it's hyper geometric or binomial. I suspect it's hyper geometric because if you pick 1 person from total 400 people you alter the probability of picking the next person thus it's not independent.
 
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xdrgnh said:

Homework Statement


A committee of 16 persons is selected randomly from a group of 400 people, of whom are 240 are women and 160 are men. Approximate the probability that the committe contains at least 3 women.



I just want to know if it's hyper geometric or binomial. I suspect it's hyper geometric because if you pick 1 person from total 400 people you alter the probability of picking the next person thus it's not independent.

You are correct. However, in cases where populations of both types are large compared with the total sample size, the hypergeometric and the binomial give nearly the same results, at least if we do not ask for results far out in the 'tails'. In this case, we want 1-P{<= 2 women}, and the '2' is far below the mean. That means that the binomial approximation may not be so good in this case, even though the committee size 16 is small compared to both 160 and 240.
 

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