Probability of drawing a full house

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SUMMARY

The probability of drawing a full house from a standard 52-card deck is calculated as 0.00144. This is derived from the formula (52/52) * (3/51) * (2/50) * (48/49) * (3/48) * 5C3, where 5C3 represents the selection of three matching cards. The discussion clarifies that multiplying by 5C2 for the pair is unnecessary, as the positions for the pair are determined once the trio's positions are established. The simulation results from WolframAlpha corroborate this probability.

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  • Understanding of combinatorial mathematics, specifically binomial coefficients (e.g., 5C3, 5C2).
  • Familiarity with basic probability concepts and calculations.
  • Knowledge of card games and the structure of a standard deck.
  • Experience with probability simulations, such as those provided by WolframAlpha.
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  • Explore advanced probability topics, such as conditional probability and independence.
  • Learn about Monte Carlo simulations for estimating probabilities in complex scenarios.
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Biosyn
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Homework Statement



What is the probability of drawing a full house from a standard deck (52).


Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



These are the two answers I came up with:

(52/52) * (3/51) * (2/50)* (48/49) * (3/48) * 5C3 * 5C2 = 0.0144~

or

(52/52) * (3/51) * (2/50)* (48/49) * (3/48) * 5C3 = 0.00144~


The second answer is the correct one.

I know you multiply by 5 choose 3 because there are three matching cards that you need to select out of five spots.
But what about the pair? Do I need to multiply by 5 choose 2?

The simulation on Wolframalpha comes up with a probability that is close to my second answer.(The correct one).
 
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Biosyn said:
I know you multiply by 5 choose 3 because there are three matching cards that you need to select out of five spots.
But what about the pair? Do I need to multiply by 5 choose 2?
The multiplication by 5C3 expresses that you don't care which of the 5 cards are the trio. But once that's decided, there are only two spots left for the pair, so you do not want to multiply by 5C2 as well. In fact, you could have done it either way round, 5C3 and 5C2 being the same.
 
haruspex said:
The multiplication by 5C3 expresses that you don't care which of the 5 cards are the trio. But once that's decided, there are only two spots left for the pair, so you do not want to multiply by 5C2 as well. In fact, you could have done it either way round, 5C3 and 5C2 being the same.

Oh, I see. So after the location of the first three cards are 'picked', the location of the other 2 cards have been determined. Or vice versa where the location of the pairs are determined first and then the three cards basically have no where else to go.
Thanks!
 

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