Probability of drawing a full house

In summary, the probability of drawing a full house from a standard deck is 0.00144~. To calculate this, you multiply the probability of drawing a trio (52/52 * 3/51 * 2/50) by the probability of drawing a pair (48/49 * 3/48), and then multiply by 5 choose 3 (5C3) to account for the different possible combinations of the trio. It is not necessary to multiply by 5 choose 2 (5C2) as well, as the location of the pair is already determined once the trio is chosen.
  • #1
Biosyn
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Homework Statement



What is the probability of drawing a full house from a standard deck (52).


Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



These are the two answers I came up with:

(52/52) * (3/51) * (2/50)* (48/49) * (3/48) * 5C3 * 5C2 = 0.0144~

or

(52/52) * (3/51) * (2/50)* (48/49) * (3/48) * 5C3 = 0.00144~


The second answer is the correct one.

I know you multiply by 5 choose 3 because there are three matching cards that you need to select out of five spots.
But what about the pair? Do I need to multiply by 5 choose 2?

The simulation on Wolframalpha comes up with a probability that is close to my second answer.(The correct one).
 
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  • #2
Biosyn said:
I know you multiply by 5 choose 3 because there are three matching cards that you need to select out of five spots.
But what about the pair? Do I need to multiply by 5 choose 2?
The multiplication by 5C3 expresses that you don't care which of the 5 cards are the trio. But once that's decided, there are only two spots left for the pair, so you do not want to multiply by 5C2 as well. In fact, you could have done it either way round, 5C3 and 5C2 being the same.
 
  • #3
haruspex said:
The multiplication by 5C3 expresses that you don't care which of the 5 cards are the trio. But once that's decided, there are only two spots left for the pair, so you do not want to multiply by 5C2 as well. In fact, you could have done it either way round, 5C3 and 5C2 being the same.

Oh, I see. So after the location of the first three cards are 'picked', the location of the other 2 cards have been determined. Or vice versa where the location of the pairs are determined first and then the three cards basically have no where else to go.
Thanks!
 

FAQ: Probability of drawing a full house

1. What is a full house in a deck of cards?

A full house is a hand in poker consisting of three cards of one rank and two cards of another rank. For example, three 7s and two Kings would be a full house.

2. What is the probability of drawing a full house in a standard deck of cards?

The probability of drawing a full house in a standard deck of cards is approximately 0.00144058, or about 1 in 694. There are 3,744 possible full house combinations out of 2,598,960 possible 5-card hands.

3. How does the probability of drawing a full house change with multiple decks?

In a game with multiple decks, the probability of drawing a full house increases. For example, in a game with two decks, the probability of drawing a full house is approximately 0.00288116, or about 1 in 347. This is because there are more cards in play, increasing the chances of getting a three of a kind and a pair.

4. What is the probability of drawing a full house in a game of Texas Hold'em?

The probability of drawing a full house in a game of Texas Hold'em depends on the number of players at the table and the cards that have been revealed. In a full ring game with nine players, the probability is approximately 0.00144689, or about 1 in 691. However, this can change depending on the cards that have been dealt and the actions of the other players.

5. How does the probability of drawing a full house compare to other poker hands?

The probability of drawing a full house is relatively low compared to other poker hands. The only hands with lower probabilities are four of a kind, straight flush, and royal flush. However, it is more likely to occur than a straight or a flush. The exact probabilities of all poker hands can be found through mathematical calculations.

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