Probability of hitting Homeruns at the Country Club

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating probabilities related to hitting homeruns at a Country Club, focusing on specific time intervals and occurrences over a week. The subject area includes probability theory, particularly the use of exponential and gamma distributions, as well as Poisson processes.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Mathematical reasoning, Assumption checking

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to calculate probabilities using exponential and gamma distributions, questioning how to express certain probabilities as functions of e. Other participants suggest reviewing the relationship between gamma and exponential distributions.

Discussion Status

The discussion is ongoing, with participants exploring various approaches to the problems posed. Some guidance has been offered regarding the relationship between distributions, but no consensus has been reached on the specific calculations or interpretations.

Contextual Notes

Participants are working under the assumption of a consistent player rate and time frame, with specific constraints on the calculations related to the average rate of homeruns per day.

mathmajor23
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For this problem, make the assumption that each day is 10 hours long, and that all 7 days of every week you expect the same number of players to be playing all day long.

At the Country Club, players hit a homerun at an average rate of 5 per day.

1) What is the probability that the first ball to get hit for a homerun occurs during the 5th hour of the day?

2) What is the probability that the third ball to get hit for a homerun occurs during the 5th hour of the day? Express your answer as a function of the number e.

3) What is the probability that there are two days in a week where no balls get hit for a homerun?

My attempt:

1) Let X = time the first ball gets hit for a homerun ~ exp(mean 2 hours)
P(4<X<5) =

2) Let Y = time until third balls gets hit for a homerun ~ Gamma(3,2) hours
P(4<Y<5) = ... (not sure how to express answer as a function of e)

3) Let Z = #days in a week where balls get hit for homeruns ~ Poisson(35 balls/7day)
P(Z=5) = ...
 
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