Probability of throwing a 6 in dice

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of rolling a six on a die multiple times, specifically focusing on the scenario where a die is thrown until a six is rolled 20 times. Participants are exploring the implications of the number of throws required to achieve this outcome.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Assumption checking, Problem interpretation

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants are examining the use of the Binomial distribution for modeling the number of throws, while questioning its appropriateness. There is a suggestion to consider the Negative Binomial distribution instead. One participant also references the Geometric distribution. Additionally, there is a discussion about the conditions under which the number of throws can exceed 100 based on the outcomes of the first 100 throws.

Discussion Status

The conversation is ongoing, with participants providing alternative distribution suggestions and clarifying the conditions necessary for the probability calculation. There is no explicit consensus yet, but some productive directions have been offered regarding the interpretation of the problem.

Contextual Notes

Participants are navigating the constraints of the problem, particularly regarding the number of required throws and the conditions for achieving the target number of sixes. There is an acknowledgment that the number of throws can be greater than 100, depending on the outcomes of the initial throws.

Dell
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i throw a dice until i get a result (6) 20 times, what is the probability that i will throw the dice more than 100 times?

i made X=amount of times i throw the dice

so now I am looking for P(X>100)

i think that i can say X~B(n, 1/6)
but the problem is that i don't know n, since it is anything over 100
 
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution"
 
Last edited by a moderator:
In this problem you can always throw the dice 100 times. If you get 20 or more sixes, you needed to throw the dice 100 times or less to get exactly 20 sixes. If you haven't reached 20 yet, then that means that you would have reached 20 had you thrown the dice more than 100 times.

So, the desired probability is the probability that after 100 dice throws you have less than 20sixes.
 
thanks, that's great
 

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